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Melbourne United vs Adelaide Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 16 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 09:00
Final 107-96
28-23 27-19 25-30 27-24
Position#1
Record12-3
FormWWLWW
Points / game93.6
Allowed / game84.3
vs
Position#9
Record4-10
FormLWLLL
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game91.7
AustraliaNBLRound 11· John Cain Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Melbourne United v Adelaide
07 Jan 2027
MELB v ADEL
upcoming
19 Sep 2026
MELB95
ADEL97
07 Feb 2026
MELB76
ADEL87
26 Oct 2025
MELB81
ADEL80
17 Nov 2024
MELB113
ADEL93
13 Oct 2024
MELB106
ADEL79
16 Dec 2023
MELB107
ADEL96
05 Feb 2023
MELB116
ADEL107
17 Nov 2022
MELB86
ADEL91
20 Mar 2022
MELB101
ADEL74
06 Jun 2021
MELB102
ADEL80
24 Apr 2021
MELB92
ADEL78
07 Dec 2019
MELB112
ADEL90
10 Nov 2019
MELB109
ADEL90
26 Dec 2018
MELB101
ADEL103
21 Oct 2018
MELB75
ADEL72
31 Mar 2018
MELB100
ADEL82
23 Mar 2018
MELB101
ADEL98
16 Mar 2018
MELB107
ADEL96
22 Dec 2017
MELB99
ADEL91
04 Nov 2017
MELB101
ADEL84
01 Jan 2017
MELB104
ADEL73
09 Oct 2016
MELB79
ADEL87
06 Dec 2015
MELB89
ADEL86
16 Oct 2015
MELB84
ADEL75
10 Jan 2015
MELB89
ADEL91
27 Nov 2014
MELB94
ADEL91
30 Mar 2014
MELB98
ADEL87
16 Feb 2014
MELB82
ADEL99
27 Oct 2013
MELB93
ADEL79
27 Jan 2013
MELB87
ADEL80
09 Nov 2012
MELB96
ADEL66
25 Feb 2012
MELB83
ADEL92
03 Feb 2012
MELB87
ADEL81
02 Jan 2011
MELB87
ADEL66
27 Jan 2010
MELB95
ADEL85
16 Jan 2010
MELB89
ADEL87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
101-91
101
91
+10
88avg 86
A20/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
97-88
97
88
+9
90avg 86
H22/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
90-82
90
82
+8
83avg 86
A27/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
96-84
96
84
+12
97avg 86
H29/10
NBL
Perth
#3
L
95-102 OT
95
102
-7
no box
H06/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
92-83
92
83
+9
78avg 86
A12/11
NBL
Sydney
#7
W
105-93
105
93
+12
97avg 86
H19/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
L
103-115
103
115
-12
92avg 86
H03/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
103-68
103
68
+35
99avg 86
H10/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
106-78
106
78
+28
104avg 86
A14/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-22
30-29
18-12
24-28
23-13
19-30
22-20
33-25
21-21
22-21
30-15
17-25
24-29
28-22
19-18
25-15
26-24
23-22
20-21
20-22
23-24
21-18
24-25
24-16
21-22
17-31
27-19
40-21
17-31
34-36
25-21
27-27
18-21
36-16
23-22
26-9
35-18
31-28
11-18
29-14
187.2Avg total
98.8Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)93.684.3177.9+9.380%
Season at home (9)93.986.1180.0+7.867%
Season away (6)93.281.5174.7+11.7100%
Last 10 (10)98.888.4187.2+10.480%
Last 5 (5)101.887.4189.2+14.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)77.082.0159.0-5.033%
vs Similar (12)91.086.8177.8+4.267%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)94.884.1178.9+10.787%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
89-80
89
80
+9
90avg 76
H14/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
85-102
85
102
-17
69avg 76
H19/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
89-78
89
78
+11
88avg 76
H21/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
97-85
97
85
+12
102avg 76
A26/10
NBL
Perth
#3
L
88-99
88
99
-11
80avg 76
A04/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
72-82
72
82
-10
60avg 76
H11/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
96-93
96
93
+3
84avg 76
H17/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
83-96
83
96
-13
73avg 76
A30/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
59-94
59
94
-35
44avg 76
A02/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
L
101-116
101
116
-15
85avg 76
H09/12
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-25
16-15
15-20
35-20
28-28
14-26
23-23
20-25
23-20
16-20
28-25
22-13
24-26
20-22
26-23
27-14
22-19
22-31
24-23
20-26
15-17
16-22
16-24
25-19
18-35
17-18
31-14
30-26
17-37
24-16
19-24
23-19
15-25
8-20
20-28
16-21
26-35
31-26
27-24
17-31
178.4Avg total
85.9Scored
92.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)84.291.7175.9-7.529%
Season at home (7)86.690.4177.0-3.943%
Season away (7)81.993.0174.9-11.114%
Last 10 (10)85.992.5178.4-6.640%
Last 5 (5)82.296.2178.4-14.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)85.990.9176.8-5.031%
vs Similar (11)90.597.5187.9-7.027%
vs Weaker (6)96.792.8189.5+3.867%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -5.6-5.6Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +6.3+6.3Q4: +2.1+2.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: -5.6-5.6Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: -3.2-3.2Q3Q3: +2.8+2.8Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: +6.3+6.3Q4: +2.1+2.1
Melbourne UnitedAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
59-51
59
51
+8
A20/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H22/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A27/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
52-51
52
51
+1
H29/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
49-46
49
46
+3
H06/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
44-42
44
42
+2
A12/11
NBL
Sydney
#7
L
38-53
38
53
-15
H19/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
L
51-67
51
67
-16
H03/12
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
54-37
54
37
+17
H10/12
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
66-46
66
46
+20
A14/12
NBL
97.6Avg total
49.8Scored
47.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.842.388.1+3.463%-
Last 30 at home (14)46.943.189.9+3.871%-
Last 30 away (16)44.841.786.5+3.156%-
Last 10 (10)49.847.897.6+2.070%-
Last 5 (5)50.649.099.6+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)39.035.774.7+3.367%-
vs Similar (12)43.442.686.0+0.858%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)49.043.592.5+5.567%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#4
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H14/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H19/10
NBL
Perth
#3
L
39-40
39
40
-1
H21/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
44-48
44
48
-4
A26/10
NBL
Perth
#3
L
44-50
44
50
-6
A04/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
31-39
31
39
-8
H11/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
35-53
35
53
-18
H17/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
41-53
41
53
-12
A30/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
23-45
23
45
-22
A02/12
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
L
57-61
57
61
-4
H09/12
NBL
87.8Avg total
39.5Scored
48.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)43.348.391.5-5.023%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.846.591.3-1.738%-
Last 30 away (14)41.550.391.8-8.87%-
Last 10 (10)39.548.387.8-8.80%-
Last 5 (5)37.450.287.6-12.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)40.847.388.2-6.58%-
vs Similar (11)44.949.694.5-4.727%-
vs Weaker (6)45.547.893.3-2.350%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 97.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.2 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.122.7
55.2%
50.9%45.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.210.9
41.6%
33.9%32.7
🏀 Free throws27.819.5
70.1%
73.8%19.5
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 85.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.0 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers20.1 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.1 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.2 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.822.5
51.4%
50.9%45.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.76.7
29.5%
33.9%20.1
🏀 Free throws25.220.1
79.8%
73.8%20.1
They take 66.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WWLWWLWWWW
Adelaide
LLLWLLWWLW
#1
League position
#9
+15.8
Net rating
-7.9
122.0
Offensive rating
106.7
106.3
Defensive rating
114.6
58.0%
Effective FG%
48.9%
48.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.4%
16.2%
Turnover %
18.1%
33.4%
Off. rebound %
31.7%
0.41
Free-throw rate
0.38
41.6%
3-point %
29.5%
54.2%
Assist %
50.7%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence122.0 · 106.7Defence106.3 · 114.6Shooting58.0% · 48.9%3-point %41.6% · 29.5%Ball care16.2% · 18.1%Off. rebounds33.4% · 31.7%Free throws0.41 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Melbourne United wins
2
Adelaide wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/12/23ASouth East Melbourne106-78
10/12/23HBrisbane Bullets103-68
03/12/23HCairns Taipans103-115
19/11/23HSydney105-93
12/11/23ASouth East Melbourne92-83
06/11/23HPerth95-102 OT
29/10/23HIllawarra Hawks96-84
27/10/23ATasmania JackJumpers90-82
22/10/23HNew Zealand Breakers97-88
20/10/23AIllawarra Hawks101-91
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/12/23HCairns Taipans101-116
02/12/23ATasmania JackJumpers59-94
30/11/23ANew Zealand Breakers83-96
17/11/23HSouth East Melbourne96-93
11/11/23HTasmania JackJumpers72-82
04/11/23APerth88-99
26/10/23ANew Zealand Breakers97-85
21/10/23HPerth89-78
19/10/23HSouth East Melbourne85-102
14/10/23HIllawarra Hawks89-80

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW80%
HomeWLWLW67%
AwayWWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1596
Win %80%67%100%
Points / game93.693.993.2
Allowed / game84.386.181.5
Point differential+9.3+7.8+11.7
Avg total177.9180.0174.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%56%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %7%11%0%
Adelaide
NBL 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL29%
HomeLWLWL43%
AwayLWLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %29%43%14%
Points / game84.286.681.9
Allowed / game91.790.493.0
Point differential-7.5-3.9-11.1
Avg total175.9177.0174.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%14%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Melbourne United1512380%93.684.3+9.3
2 Tasmania JackJumpers159660%89.883.4+6.4
3 Perth159660%90.289.9+0.3
4 Sydney148657%95.493.6+1.9
5 South East Melbourne168850%90.892.3-1.5
6 Brisbane Bullets157847%85.588.6-3.1
7 Cairns Taipans156940%87.789.6-1.9
8 Illawarra Hawks135838%85.188.8-3.8
9 New Zealand Breakers145936%88.289.1-0.9
10 Adelaide1441029%84.291.7-7.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne United28272527107
Adelaide2319302496
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