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Melbourne United vs Adelaide Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 07 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 08:30
Scheduled
Position#3
Record8-6
FormWWWLW
Points / game98.3
Allowed / game91.9
Melbourne United
Australia
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.2/10
Around normal
5.3/10
Around normal
Adelaide
Australia
Position#5
Record7-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game92.5
AustraliaNBLRound 16· John Cain Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Melbourne United v Adelaide
07 Jan 2027
MELB v ADEL
upcoming
19 Sep 2026
MELB95
ADEL97
07 Feb 2026
MELB76
ADEL87
26 Oct 2025
MELB81
ADEL80
17 Nov 2024
MELB113
ADEL93
13 Oct 2024
MELB106
ADEL79
16 Dec 2023
MELB107
ADEL96
05 Feb 2023
MELB116
ADEL107
17 Nov 2022
MELB86
ADEL91
20 Mar 2022
MELB101
ADEL74
06 Jun 2021
MELB102
ADEL80
24 Apr 2021
MELB92
ADEL78
07 Dec 2019
MELB112
ADEL90
10 Nov 2019
MELB109
ADEL90
26 Dec 2018
MELB101
ADEL103
21 Oct 2018
MELB75
ADEL72
31 Mar 2018
MELB100
ADEL82
23 Mar 2018
MELB101
ADEL98
16 Mar 2018
MELB107
ADEL96
22 Dec 2017
MELB99
ADEL91
04 Nov 2017
MELB101
ADEL84
01 Jan 2017
MELB104
ADEL73
09 Oct 2016
MELB79
ADEL87
06 Dec 2015
MELB89
ADEL86
16 Oct 2015
MELB84
ADEL75
10 Jan 2015
MELB89
ADEL91
27 Nov 2014
MELB94
ADEL91
30 Mar 2014
MELB98
ADEL87
16 Feb 2014
MELB82
ADEL99
27 Oct 2013
MELB93
ADEL79
27 Jan 2013
MELB87
ADEL80
09 Nov 2012
MELB96
ADEL66
25 Feb 2012
MELB83
ADEL92
03 Feb 2012
MELB87
ADEL81
02 Jan 2011
MELB87
ADEL66
27 Jan 2010
MELB95
ADEL85
16 Jan 2010
MELB89
ADEL87
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
96-91
96
91
+5
93avg 82
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
104-99
104
99
+5
102avg 82
A10/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
89-91
89
91
-2
81avg 82
H18/10
NBL
Perth
#6
L
102-103
102
103
-1
96avg 82
A23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
105-95
105
95
+10
93avg 82
H25/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
113-97
113
97
+16
109avg 82
A31/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
94-74
94
74
+20
no box
H02/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
W
120-92
120
92
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
93-101
93
101
-8
no box
A12/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
102-95
102
95
+7
no box
H14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-21
25-17
20-21
20-32
17-30
28-23
29-21
30-25
27-21
16-35
22-22
24-13
26-25
22-21
31-31
23-26
32-31
24-20
21-13
28-31
26-33
25-21
34-19
28-24
28-19
15-20
27-16
24-19
29-17
33-31
21-25
37-19
10-27
25-32
27-21
31-21
30-22
34-17
23-29
15-27
195.6Avg total
101.8Scored
93.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)98.391.9190.2+6.457%
Season at home (7)100.093.0193.0+7.057%
Season away (7)96.690.9187.4+5.757%
Last 10 (10)101.893.8195.6+8.070%
Last 5 (5)104.491.8196.2+12.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.097.0191.0-3.00%
vs Similar (6)84.887.5172.3-2.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)93.688.3181.9+5.257%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
92-114
92
114
-22
87avg 86
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
72-88
72
88
-16
61avg 86
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
91-96
91
96
-5
79avg 86
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
84-78
84
78
+6
76avg 86
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 86
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
94-108
94
108
-14
86avg 86
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
106avg 86
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
89-96
89
96
-7
77avg 86
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
106-78
106
78
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
101-93
101
93
+8
no box
H12/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
21-31
17-25
21-20
32-20
18-18
23-26
20-12
23-22
14-22
26-17
31-23
23-26
25-42
18-30
29-14
22-22
28-24
28-20
18-28
34-29
17-30
26-20
23-26
23-20
22-21
27-16
36-23
21-18
27-10
32-25
21-27
21-31
187.1Avg total
93.1Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)92.992.5185.4+0.554%
Season at home (6)90.386.7177.0+3.750%
Season away (7)95.197.4192.6-2.357%
Last 10 (10)93.194.0187.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)99.695.2194.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)92.997.9190.7-5.050%
vs Similar (10)93.795.5189.2-1.850%
vs Weaker (6)96.088.5184.5+7.550%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -4.4-4.4Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +0.1+0.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -4.4-4.4Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: +0.1+0.1
Melbourne UnitedAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
56-38
56
38
+18
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A10/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
43-56
43
56
-13
H18/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H25/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
51-54
51
54
-3
A31/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H02/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
W
62-48
62
48
+14
H07/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
35-59
35
59
-24
A12/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
64-39
64
39
+25
H14/11
NBL
98.6Avg total
50.3Scored
48.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.845.492.2+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.143.891.9+4.262%-
Last 30 away (14)45.447.292.6-1.836%-
Last 10 (10)50.348.398.6+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)51.047.898.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)48.056.0104.0-8.00%-
vs Similar (6)45.545.090.5+0.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)47.145.092.2+2.152%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
43-72
43
72
-29
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
43-50
43
50
-7
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H12/11
NBL
93.6Avg total
44.6Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.595.6-1.453%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.046.494.4+1.654%-
Last 30 away (17)46.450.196.5-3.853%-
Last 10 (10)44.649.093.6-4.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.047.697.6+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)48.949.998.9-1.050%-
vs Similar (10)44.547.992.4-3.450%-
vs Weaker (6)47.046.293.2+0.867%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 96.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.026.1
56.7%
56.4%52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.3
32.3%
34.2%24.9
🏀 Free throws26.219.6
74.8%
74.0%19.6
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 90.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.9
56.3%
56.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.4
30.3%
34.2%28.2
🏀 Free throws23.116.4
71.0%
74.0%16.4
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WLWWWWLLWW
Adelaide
WWLWLWWLLL
#3
League position
#5
+4.9
Net rating
-3.3
100.1
Offensive rating
99.1
95.2
Defensive rating
102.4
53.8%
Effective FG%
51.6%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
57.6%
13.3%
Turnover %
11.2%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.32
32.3%
3-point %
30.3%
55.8%
Assist %
67.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence100.1 · 99.1Defence95.2 · 102.4Shooting53.8% · 51.6%3-point %32.3% · 30.3%Ball care13.3% · 11.2%Free throws0.37 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Melbourne United wins
6
Adelaide wins
DateGameScore
12/11/26Adelaide v Melbourne United101-93
07/10/26Adelaide v Melbourne United91-96
19/09/26Melbourne United v Adelaide95-97
07/02/26Melbourne United v Adelaide76-87
12/12/25Adelaide v Melbourne United114-105 OT
26/10/25Melbourne United v Adelaide81-80
04/01/25Adelaide v Melbourne United100-81
17/11/24Melbourne United v Adelaide113-93
13/10/24Melbourne United v Adelaide106-79
06/01/24Adelaide v Melbourne United100-96
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouth East Melbourne102-95
12/11/26AAdelaide93-101
07/11/26HBrisbane Bullets120-92
02/11/26HNew Zealand Breakers94-74
31/10/26ACairns Taipans113-97
25/10/26HSydney105-95
23/10/26APerth102-103
18/10/26HIllawarra Hawks89-91
10/10/26ASouth East Melbourne104-99
07/10/26AAdelaide96-91
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMelbourne United101-93
07/11/26HIllawarra Hawks106-78
01/11/26HBrisbane Bullets89-96
30/10/26ANew Zealand Breakers108-101
24/10/26ASouth East Melbourne94-108
16/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers94-88
11/10/26ASydney84-78
07/10/26HMelbourne United91-96
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW57%
HomeLWWWW57%
AwayWWLWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %57%57%57%
Points / game98.3100.096.6
Allowed / game91.993.090.9
Point differential+6.4+7.0+5.7
Avg total190.2193.0187.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%43%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeLLLWW50%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game92.990.395.1
Allowed / game92.586.797.4
Point differential+0.5+3.7-2.3
Avg total185.4177.0192.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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