Melbourne United vs Adelaide Prediction & Stats

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	94.9	92.0	186.9	+2.9	44%
Season at home (4)	96.0	97.5	193.5	-1.5	25%
Season away (5)	94.0	87.6	181.6	+6.4	60%
Last 10 (10)	93.1	92.3	185.4	+0.8	40%
Last 5 (5)	99.2	95.8	195.0	+3.4	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	95.0	94.7	189.7	+0.3	33%
vs Similar (11)	87.9	90.7	178.6	-2.8	45%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)	90.0	88.3	178.3	+1.7	44%

This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Adelaide

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Melbourne United

97-95

A19/09

NBL

Perth

97-98

-1

A24/09

NBL

Cairns Taipans

83-69

+14

H27/09

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

#10

92-114

114

-22

A02/10

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

72-88

-16

H04/10

NBL

Melbourne United

91-96

-5

H07/10

NBL

Sydney

84-78

A11/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

94-88

A16/10

NBL

South East Melbourne

94-108

108

-14

A24/10

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

108-101

108

101

A30/10

NBL

25-23

24-25

26-22

22-25

20-30

28-18

29-22

20-28

32-17

20-17

15-17

16-18

21-35

14-30

32-27

25-22

19-23

23-25

15-12

15-28

21-31

17-25

21-20

32-20

18-18

23-26

20-12

23-22

14-22

26-17

31-23

23-26

25-42

18-30

29-14

22-22

28-24

28-20

18-28

34-29

184.7Avg total

91.2Scored

93.5Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (10)	91.2	93.5	184.7	-2.3	50%
Season at home (3)	82.0	84.3	166.3	-2.3	33%
Season away (7)	95.1	97.4	192.6	-2.3	57%
Last 10 (10)	91.2	93.5	184.7	-2.3	50%
Last 5 (5)	94.2	94.2	188.4	+0.0	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	92.2	98.8	191.1	-6.6	44%
vs Similar (10)	90.4	90.8	181.2	-0.4	50%
vs Weaker (4)	98.8	93.5	192.2	+5.2	50%

This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Melbourne UnitedAdelaide

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.1	24.0	46.1	-1.9	40%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	23.8	23.3	47.1	+0.5	53%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.4	24.6	45.0	-4.2	27%	-
Last 10 (10)	21.9	23.0	44.9	-1.1	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	26.6	25.6	52.2	+1.0	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	26.7	27.0	53.7	-0.3	67%	-
vs Similar (11)	20.2	25.4	45.5	-5.2	27%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)	22.6	22.4	45.0	+0.1	44%	-

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.1	24.7	47.9	-1.6	37%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	22.5	24.0	46.5	-1.5	25%	-
Last 30 away (18)	23.6	25.2	48.8	-1.7	44%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.3	26.5	48.8	-4.2	30%	-
Last 5 (5)	21.2	27.4	48.6	-6.2	20%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	23.7	25.5	49.2	-1.8	31%	-
vs Similar (10)	22.5	22.8	45.3	-0.3	50%	-
vs Weaker (4)	22.5	26.5	49.0	-4.0	25%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	24.1	22.4	46.5	+1.7	60%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.9	21.1	44.1	+1.8	67%	-
Last 30 away (15)	25.3	23.6	48.9	+1.7	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	25.6	24.1	49.7	+1.5	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.0	23.2	46.2	-0.2	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	24.7	23.7	48.3	+1.0	67%	-
vs Similar (11)	24.6	22.7	47.4	+1.9	55%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)	23.6	21.9	45.5	+1.8	62%	-

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.5	24.3	46.8	-1.8	40%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	22.8	23.8	46.6	-1.1	50%	-
Last 30 away (18)	22.3	24.6	46.9	-2.3	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.1	23.3	45.4	-1.2	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	22.4	23.6	46.0	-1.2	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	23.3	26.2	49.6	-2.9	31%	-
vs Similar (10)	21.6	21.4	43.0	+0.2	60%	-
vs Weaker (4)	21.5	23.8	45.2	-2.2	25%	-

Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Perth

53-44

A07/03

NBL

Adelaide

48-49

-1

H19/09

NBL

South East Melbourne

45-35

+10

A24/09

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

35-52

-17

A01/10

NBL

Cairns Taipans

46-47

-1

H03/10

NBL

Adelaide

56-38

+18

A07/10

NBL

South East Melbourne

45-53

-8

A10/10

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

#10

43-56

-13

H18/10

NBL

Perth

48-46

A23/10

NBL

Sydney

56-51

H25/10

NBL

94.6Avg total

47.5Scored

47.1Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	46.2	46.3	92.5	-0.1	47%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	46.7	44.5	91.2	+2.3	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	45.7	48.2	93.9	-2.5	33%	-
Last 10 (10)	47.5	47.1	94.6	+0.4	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	49.6	48.8	98.4	+0.8	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	51.3	50.7	102.0	+0.7	67%	-
vs Similar (11)	44.8	48.1	92.9	-3.3	36%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)	46.2	44.3	90.5	+1.9	50%	-

This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Melbourne United

49-48

A19/09

NBL

Perth

48-48

A24/09

NBL

Cairns Taipans

52-34

+18

H27/09

NBL

Illawarra Hawks

#10

35-65

-30

A02/10

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

42-48

-6

H04/10

NBL

Melbourne United

38-56

-18

H07/10

NBL

Sydney

41-44

-3

A11/10

NBL

Tasmania JackJumpers

40-39

A16/10

NBL

South East Melbourne

43-72

-29

A24/10

NBL

New Zealand Breakers

56-44

+12

A30/10

NBL

94.2Avg total

44.4Scored

49.8Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	45.6	49.0	94.7	-3.4	47%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	45.2	47.8	93.1	-2.6	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	45.9	49.8	95.7	-3.9	50%	-
Last 10 (10)	44.4	49.8	94.2	-5.4	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	43.6	51.0	94.6	-7.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	47.0	51.8	98.8	-4.8	44%	-
vs Similar (10)	44.1	44.2	88.3	-0.1	50%	-
vs Weaker (4)	44.0	50.2	94.2	-6.2	50%	-

This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	20.6	22.2	42.8	-1.7	37%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	21.0	23.5	44.5	-2.5	33%	-
Last 30 away (15)	20.1	21.0	41.1	-0.9	40%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.3	22.0	45.3	+1.3	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	24.6	21.6	46.2	+3.0	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	22.0	20.0	42.0	+2.0	67%	-
vs Similar (11)	18.4	21.9	40.3	-3.5	27%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)	21.8	22.9	44.7	-1.1	38%	-

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.9	21.8	44.7	+1.0	57%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	21.4	22.2	43.7	-0.8	42%	-
Last 30 away (18)	23.8	21.6	45.4	+2.3	67%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.6	19.7	43.3	+3.9	80%	-
Last 5 (5)	23.8	19.4	43.2	+4.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	22.5	22.7	45.2	-0.2	50%	-
vs Similar (10)	22.1	21.2	43.3	+0.9	50%	-
vs Weaker (4)	26.2	20.0	46.2	+6.2	100%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	22.6	20.4	42.9	+2.2	60%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	22.2	19.4	41.6	+2.8	60%	-
Last 30 away (15)	22.9	21.3	44.3	+1.6	60%	-
Last 10 (10)	22.3	23.2	45.5	-0.9	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	25.0	25.4	50.4	-0.4	40%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	21.0	21.3	42.3	-0.3	33%	-
vs Similar (11)	23.8	19.0	42.8	+4.8	82%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)	22.0	21.1	43.1	+0.9	50%	-

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	23.2	23.4	46.6	-0.2	43%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	23.2	22.5	45.7	+0.7	50%	-
Last 30 away (18)	23.2	24.0	47.2	-0.8	39%	-
Last 10 (10)	23.2	24.0	47.2	-0.8	40%	-
Last 5 (5)	26.8	23.8	50.6	+3.0	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	22.4	23.2	45.6	-0.9	38%	-
vs Similar (10)	22.3	23.7	46.0	-1.4	40%	-
vs Weaker (4)	28.5	23.2	51.8	+5.2	75%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	43.1	42.6	85.7	+0.5	50%	-
Last 30 at home (15)	43.2	42.9	86.1	+0.3	47%	-
Last 30 away (15)	43.1	42.3	85.4	+0.7	53%	-
Last 10 (10)	45.6	45.2	90.8	+0.4	50%	-
Last 5 (5)	49.6	47.0	96.6	+2.6	60%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)	43.0	41.3	84.3	+1.7	67%	-
vs Similar (11)	42.2	40.9	83.1	+1.3	64%	-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)	43.8	44.0	87.8	-0.2	38%	-

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over main line
Last 30 (30)	46.0	45.2	91.3	+0.8	57%	-
Last 30 at home (12)	44.6	44.8	89.3	-0.2	50%	-
Last 30 away (18)	47.0	45.6	92.6	+1.4	61%	-
Last 10 (10)	46.8	43.7	90.5	+3.1	60%	-
Last 5 (5)	50.6	43.2	93.8	+7.4	80%	-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (16)	44.9	45.9	90.8	-1.1	62%	-
vs Similar (10)	44.4	44.9	89.3	-0.5	40%	-
vs Weaker (4)	54.8	43.2	98.0	+11.5	75%	-

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 93.1 points a game scored

🏀🏀54%

🏀🏀🏀26%

🏀20%

🏀🏀 2-pointers50.4 pts a game · 54% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 26% of the points

🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 20% of the points

League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	46.2	25.2	54.5%	56.0%	50.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	26.7	8.0	30.0%	34.4%	24.0
🏀 Free throws	24.8	18.7	75.4%	73.7%	18.7

They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 91.2 points a game scored

🏀🏀49%

🏀🏀🏀33%

🏀18%

🏀🏀 2-pointers44.4 pts a game · 49% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 33% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 18% of the points

League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game

50%

34%

16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.5	22.2	56.2%	56.0%	44.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.8	10.1	32.8%	34.4%	30.3
🏀 Free throws	22.6	16.5	73.0%	73.7%	16.5

They take 70.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.3	21.9	53.0%	56.0%	43.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	32.3	10.0	31.0%	34.4%	30.0
🏀 Free throws	23.8	18.5	77.7%	73.7%	18.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.9	24.8	59.2%	56.0%	49.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.0	10.6	36.6%	34.4%	31.8
🏀 Free throws	15.6	11.9	76.3%	73.7%	11.9

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	45.3	23.4	51.6%	56.0%	46.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.3	9.0	30.8%	34.4%	27.1
🏀 Free throws	22.1	16.8	76.1%	73.7%	16.8

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	38.7	21.6	55.7%	56.0%	43.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	30.1	10.7	35.6%	34.4%	32.1
🏀 Free throws	20.5	16.0	78.3%	73.7%	16.0

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.3	22.6	52.3%	56.0%	45.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	27.6	9.1	32.8%	34.4%	27.2
🏀 Free throws	24.2	18.2	75.2%	73.7%	18.2

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	43.6	24.1	55.2%	56.0%	48.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	29.7	10.5	35.4%	34.4%	31.5
🏀 Free throws	17.2	12.9	75.3%	73.7%	12.9

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Melbourne United

WLLWWLLWLL

Adelaide

WLWWLLLWLW

League position

+0.8

Net rating

-2.3

96.5

Offensive rating

101.1

95.7

Defensive rating

103.4

51.0%

Effective FG%

53.1%

50.1%

Opp. effective FG%

57.4%

12.8%

Turnover %

11.8%

0.34

Free-throw rate

0.32

30.0%

3-point %

32.8%

55.4%

Assist %

65.6%

40%

Form (last 10/10)

50%

Profile

■ Melbourne United ■ Adelaide

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Melbourne United wins

Adelaide wins

Date	Game	Score
07/10/26	Adelaide v Melbourne United	91-96
19/09/26	Melbourne United v Adelaide	95-97
07/02/26	Melbourne United v Adelaide	76-87
12/12/25	Adelaide v Melbourne United	114-105 OT
26/10/25	Melbourne United v Adelaide	81-80
04/01/25	Adelaide v Melbourne United	100-81
17/11/24	Melbourne United v Adelaide	113-93
13/10/24	Melbourne United v Adelaide	106-79
06/01/24	Adelaide v Melbourne United	100-96
16/12/23	Melbourne United v Adelaide	107-96

Melbourne Unitedlast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
25/10/26	H	Sydney	105-95
23/10/26	A	Perth	102-103
18/10/26	H	Illawarra Hawks	89-91
10/10/26	A	South East Melbourne	104-99
07/10/26	A	Adelaide	96-91
03/10/26	H	Cairns Taipans	95-107
01/10/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	82-84
24/09/26	A	South East Melbourne	86-61
19/09/26	H	Adelaide	95-97
07/03/26	A	Perth	77-95

Adelaidelast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
30/10/26	A	New Zealand Breakers	108-101
24/10/26	A	South East Melbourne	94-108
16/10/26	A	Tasmania JackJumpers	94-88
11/10/26	A	Sydney	84-78
07/10/26	H	Melbourne United	91-96
04/10/26	H	New Zealand Breakers	72-88
02/10/26	A	Illawarra Hawks	92-114
27/09/26	H	Cairns Taipans	83-69
24/09/26	A	Perth	97-98
19/09/26	A	Melbourne United	97-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United

NBL 2026-27

Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWLLW	44%
Home	LLLW	25%
Away	WLWWL	60%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	4	5
Win %	44%	25%	60%
Points / game	94.9	96.0	94.0
Allowed / game	92.0	97.5	87.6
Point differential	+2.9	-1.5	+6.4
Avg total	186.9	193.5	181.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	22%	25%	20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (6)	0% (2)	50% (4)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Adelaide

NBL 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWLW	50%
Home	WLL	33%
Away	LWWLW	57%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	10	3	7
Win %	50%	33%	57%
Points / game	91.2	82.0	95.1
Allowed / game	93.5	84.3	97.4
Point differential	-2.3	-2.3	-2.3
Avg total	184.7	166.3	192.6
Over main line	-	-	-
Win by 10+	10%	33%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	33% (3)	0% (1)	50% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Sydney	10	7	3	70%	97.9	88.1	+9.8
2	Tasmania JackJumpers	9	6	3	67%	95.3	91.0	+4.3
3	Perth	8	5	3	62%	92.6	95.6	-3.0
4	Cairns Taipans	10	6	4	60%	91.7	94.9	-3.2
5	Adelaide	10	5	5	50%	91.2	93.5	-2.3
6	South East Melbourne	9	4	5	44%	97.8	93.9	+3.9
7	Melbourne United	9	4	5	44%	94.9	92.0	+2.9
8	Brisbane Bullets	9	4	5	44%	93.6	97.6	-4.0
9	New Zealand Breakers	10	4	6	40%	92.2	90.6	+1.6
10	Illawarra Hawks	10	2	8	20%	95.2	105.1	-9.9

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

← all games of the day

Melbourne United vs Adelaide Prediction & Stats

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

Manage Cookies

Strictly Necessary

Functionality Cookies

Performance Cookies

Third Party Marketing/Targeting

A Pro feature