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Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 29 Oct 2023
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 96-84
24-29 28-22 19-18 25-15
Position#1
Record7-1
FormWWWWW
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game80.1
vs
Position#4
Record2-4
FormWLLLW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game96.3
AustraliaNBLRound 5· John Cain Arena
Other2023-24
Meetings · Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks
13 Feb 2027
MELB v ILLA
upcoming
18 Oct 2026
MELB89
ILLA91
15 Feb 2026
MELB91
ILLA100
18 Dec 2025
MELB97
ILLA75
19 Mar 2025
MELB71
ILLA80
12 Mar 2025
MELB100
ILLA102
13 Dec 2024
MELB93
ILLA106
13 Mar 2024
MELB100
ILLA94
07 Mar 2024
MELB115
ILLA106
18 Feb 2024
MELB92
ILLA87
29 Oct 2023
MELB96
ILLA84
18 Dec 2022
MELB88
ILLA77
02 Apr 2022
MELB90
ILLA96
27 Mar 2022
MELB77
ILLA92
18 Apr 2021
MELB87
ILLA76
21 Mar 2021
MELB75
ILLA65
08 Feb 2020
MELB95
ILLA72
23 Jan 2019
MELB113
ILLA89
29 Oct 2018
MELB99
ILLA93
18 Feb 2018
MELB84
ILLA94
04 Dec 2017
MELB91
ILLA73
06 Feb 2017
MELB78
ILLA72
16 Oct 2016
MELB95
ILLA83
07 Jan 2016
MELB97
ILLA96
11 Oct 2015
MELB93
ILLA81
07 Feb 2015
MELB76
ILLA82
02 Nov 2014
MELB88
ILLA75
27 Dec 2013
MELB74
ILLA67
10 Nov 2013
MELB81
ILLA76
02 Mar 2013
MELB82
ILLA88
25 Nov 2012
MELB66
ILLA74
18 Mar 2012
MELB61
ILLA71
06 Feb 2011
MELB93
ILLA72
07 Nov 2010
MELB82
ILLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#2
L
74-80
74
80
-6
no box
A28/01
NBL
Adelaide
#8
W
116-107
116
107
+9
no box
H05/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
82-67
82
67
+15
71avg 80
H28/09
NBL
Adelaide
#9
W
82-74
82
74
+8
70avg 80
A01/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
75-80
75
80
-5
68avg 80
H08/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
88-81
88
81
+7
82avg 80
A13/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
89-78
89
78
+11
88avg 80
H15/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
101-91
101
91
+10
88avg 80
A20/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
W
97-88
97
88
+9
90avg 80
H22/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
90-82
90
82
+8
83avg 80
A27/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-10
15-21
22-27
18-22
27-27
29-30
31-23
29-27
29-24
16-9
19-17
18-17
25-19
16-24
16-14
25-17
18-16
18-19
25-18
14-27
22-17
17-18
21-17
28-29
14-14
29-14
23-17
23-33
29-22
30-29
18-12
24-28
23-13
19-30
22-20
33-25
21-21
22-21
30-15
17-25
172.2Avg total
89.4Scored
82.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)88.080.1168.1+7.988%
Season at home (4)85.878.2164.0+7.575%
Season away (4)90.282.0172.2+8.2100%
Last 10 (10)89.482.8172.2+6.680%
Last 5 (5)93.084.0177.0+9.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)77.082.0159.0-5.033%
vs Similar (16)88.385.9174.2+2.456%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)93.584.8178.3+8.691%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#9
L
86-103
86
103
-17
no box
H21/01
NBL
Perth
#6
L
86-106
86
106
-20
no box
A27/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#2
L
81-91
81
91
-10
no box
H02/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#4
L
63-87
63
87
-24
no box
H04/02
NBL
Sydney
#7
L
81-96
81
96
-15
65avg 68
H30/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
113-106
113
106
+7
85avg 68
H07/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
73-103
73
103
-30
62avg 68
A12/10
NBL
Adelaide
#9
L
80-89
80
89
-9
60avg 68
A14/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#1
L
91-101
91
101
-10
67avg 68
H20/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
W
84-83
84
83
+1
71avg 68
H26/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-24
28-26
19-23
19-30
25-25
30-25
23-34
8-22
30-21
20-13
9-29
22-28
15-25
20-21
12-22
16-19
24-26
15-25
25-23
17-22
26-26
34-29
22-27
31-24
19-24
10-31
25-26
19-22
25-23
15-16
20-15
20-35
22-29
29-30
12-18
28-24
24-15
20-23
17-22
23-23
180.3Avg total
83.8Scored
96.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (6)87.096.3183.3-9.333%
Season at home (4)92.296.5188.8-4.250%
Season away (2)76.596.0172.5-19.50%
Last 10 (10)83.896.5180.3-12.720%
Last 5 (5)88.296.4184.6-8.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)82.194.5176.6-12.39%
vs Similar (6)74.789.8164.5-15.217%
vs Weaker (1)113.0106.0219.0+7.0100%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: +4.7+4.7Q3: -5.5-5.5Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: -4.6-4.6
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +4.4+4.4Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -0.4-0.4Q2: -1.8-1.8Q3Q3: +4.7+4.7Q3: -5.5-5.5Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: -4.6-4.6
Melbourne UnitedIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#2
W
34-31
34
31
+3
A28/01
NBL
Adelaide
#8
L
56-57
56
57
-1
H05/02
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
45-33
45
33
+12
H28/09
NBL
Adelaide
#9
L
41-43
41
43
-2
A01/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
36-35
36
35
+1
H08/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
39-35
39
35
+4
A13/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#6
W
43-28
43
28
+15
H15/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#4
W
59-51
59
51
+8
A20/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#5
L
42-43
42
43
-1
H22/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A27/10
NBL
83.6Avg total
43.8Scored
39.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.141.085.2+3.157%-
Last 30 at home (13)47.541.288.7+6.277%-
Last 30 away (17)41.640.982.5+0.741%-
Last 10 (10)43.839.883.6+4.070%-
Last 5 (5)45.239.885.0+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)39.035.774.7+3.367%-
vs Similar (16)44.042.486.4+1.656%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)45.740.586.2+5.355%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brisbane Bullets
#9
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H21/01
NBL
Perth
#6
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A27/01
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#2
W
50-34
50
34
+16
H02/02
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#4
L
35-46
35
46
-11
H04/02
NBL
Sydney
#7
L
39-51
39
51
-12
H30/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
60-55
60
55
+5
H07/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
29-55
29
55
-26
A12/10
NBL
Adelaide
#9
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A14/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#1
L
51-59
51
59
-8
H20/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#8
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H26/10
NBL
92.8Avg total
45.1Scored
47.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.847.489.2-5.630%-
Last 30 at home (16)43.148.291.3-5.131%-
Last 30 away (14)40.346.486.7-6.129%-
Last 10 (10)45.147.792.8-2.650%-
Last 5 (5)44.849.294.0-4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)41.947.589.4-5.626%-
vs Similar (6)38.345.784.0-7.333%-
vs Weaker (1)60.055.0115.0+5.0100%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 87.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.2 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.0 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.2 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.019.6
50.3%
50.9%39.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.010.2
34.2%
33.9%30.8
🏀 Free throws23.117.0
73.5%
73.8%17.0
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 86.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.7 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.2 points a game
51%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.221.3
47.2%
50.9%42.7
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.210.0
33.1%
33.9%30.0
🏀 Free throws18.713.7
73.2%
73.8%13.7
They take 75.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 37%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 8/6 games with a box score before 29 Oct 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WWWWWLWWWL
Illawarra Hawks
WLLLWLLLLL
#1
League position
#4
+9.7
Net rating
-11.1
110.5
Offensive rating
106.0
100.9
Defensive rating
117.1
50.7%
Effective FG%
48.2%
43.5%
Opp. effective FG%
56.5%
15.6%
Turnover %
16.0%
31.1%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.25
34.2%
3-point %
33.1%
57.3%
Assist %
45.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence110.5 · 106.0Defence100.9 · 117.1Shooting50.7% · 48.2%3-point %34.2% · 33.1%Ball care15.6% · 16.0%Off. rebounds31.1% · 32.7%Free throws0.34 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)80% · 20%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
27/10/23ATasmania JackJumpers90-82
22/10/23HNew Zealand Breakers97-88
20/10/23AIllawarra Hawks101-91
15/10/23HBrisbane Bullets89-78
13/10/23APerth88-81
08/10/23HTasmania JackJumpers75-80
01/10/23AAdelaide82-74
28/09/23HSouth East Melbourne82-67
05/02/23HAdelaide116-107
28/01/23ANew Zealand Breakers74-80
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/10/23HCairns Taipans84-83
20/10/23HMelbourne United91-101
14/10/23AAdelaide80-89
12/10/23ATasmania JackJumpers73-103
07/10/23HSouth East Melbourne113-106
30/09/23HSydney81-96
04/02/23HTasmania JackJumpers63-87
02/02/23HNew Zealand Breakers81-91
27/01/23APerth86-106
21/01/23HBrisbane Bullets86-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW88%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayWWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %88%75%100%
Points / game88.085.890.2
Allowed / game80.178.282.0
Point differential+7.9+7.5+8.2
Avg total168.1164.0172.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%50%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2023-24
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW33%
HomeLWLW50%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games642
Win %33%50%0%
Points / game87.092.276.5
Allowed / game96.396.596.0
Point differential-9.3-4.2-19.5
Avg total183.3188.8172.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Melbourne United87188%88.080.1+7.9
2 South East Melbourne85362%93.890.5+3.2
3 Cairns Taipans53260%86.685.6+1.0
4 Tasmania JackJumpers74357%90.084.6+5.4
5 Sydney74357%94.991.6+3.3
6 Brisbane Bullets73443%85.488.7-3.3
7 Adelaide83538%85.088.0-3.0
8 Illawarra Hawks62433%87.096.3-9.3
9 Perth72529%86.691.4-4.9
10 New Zealand Breakers51420%91.094.6-3.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Melbourne United2428192596
Illawarra Hawks2922181584
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