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Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 22 Jan 2017
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 109-97
25-22 28-21 29-28 27-26
Position#13
Record13-30
FormLLLWW
Points / game98.6
Allowed / game102.6
vs
Position#14
Record20-22
FormWLLLL
Points / game104.6
Allowed / game104.0
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#5
L
114-117
114
117
-3
113avg 92
A31/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
98-107
98
107
-9
91avg 92
H01/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
90-99
90
99
-9
73avg 92
A04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
107-102
107
102
+5
105avg 92
A05/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
L
100-127
100
127
-27
79avg 92
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
86-98
86
98
-12
73avg 92
A08/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
95-107
95
107
-12
86avg 92
A11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
108-116
108
116
-8
101avg 92
A14/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
109-103
109
103
+6
100avg 92
H18/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
W
99-95
99
95
+4
90avg 92
H20/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-25
23-27
30-30
36-35
37-33
29-25
15-27
17-22
29-28
23-28
14-27
24-16
30-25
34-34
23-22
20-21
23-32
33-26
23-32
21-37
19-20
20-32
27-28
20-18
29-27
25-26
14-26
27-28
30-42
18-23
26-26
34-25
27-32
26-21
26-26
30-24
29-22
15-31
26-20
29-22
207.7Avg total
100.6Scored
107.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (43)98.6102.6201.2-4.030%
Season at home (20)101.5102.6204.1-1.135%
Season away (23)96.0102.6198.7-6.626%
Last 10 (10)100.6107.1207.7-6.530%
Last 5 (5)99.4103.8203.2-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)102.0105.0207.0-3.050%
vs Similar ◀ (22)97.3102.6199.9-5.327%
vs Weaker (6)107.5114.2221.7-6.733%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
98-94
98
94
+4
88avg 95
H03/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
W
105-104
105
104
+1
97avg 95
A05/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
L
111-116
111
116
-5
104avg 95
H07/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#9
L
101-107
101
107
-6
92avg 95
H08/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
109-107
109
107
+2
108avg 95
A11/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
W
116-108
116
108
+8
117avg 95
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
98-111
98
111
-13
92avg 95
A15/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
L
104-113
104
113
-9
91avg 95
H16/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
92-111
92
111
-19
84avg 95
A19/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
96-112
96
112
-16
83avg 95
A21/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-30
28-26
29-16
19-22
27-25
25-27
21-35
32-17
33-32
32-21
31-30
15-33
31-24
26-25
21-33
23-25
23-23
30-36
30-30
26-18
42-30
23-18
26-26
25-34
36-36
17-24
30-28
15-23
24-24
30-22
24-35
26-32
27-22
12-30
26-27
27-32
23-25
32-34
19-29
22-24
211.3Avg total
103.0Scored
108.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)104.6104.0208.6+0.648%
Season at home (22)108.8104.8213.6+4.055%
Season away (20)100.0103.0203.1-3.040%
Last 10 (10)103.0108.3211.3-5.340%
Last 5 (5)101.2111.0212.2-9.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)104.2107.2211.3-3.033%
vs Similar ◀ (18)106.7104.1210.7+2.650%
vs Weaker (6)103.3101.0204.3+2.367%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: -0.8-0.8Q3Q3: -4.0-4.0Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -3.0-3.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.7+1.7Q2Q2: -2.7-2.7Q2: -0.8-0.8Q3Q3: -4.0-4.0Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -3.0-3.0
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#5
L
48-52
48
52
-4
A31/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H01/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
52-56
52
56
-4
A04/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#23
W
64-59
64
59
+5
A05/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#28
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A07/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A08/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#14
L
48-65
48
65
-17
A14/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H18/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#22
L
44-53
44
53
-9
H20/01
NBA
108.3Avg total
52.4Scored
55.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.253.6103.8-3.440%-
Last 30 at home (13)50.855.2106.0-4.338%-
Last 30 away (17)49.852.4102.2-2.641%-
Last 10 (10)52.455.9108.3-3.530%-
Last 5 (5)47.655.2102.8-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)53.553.0106.5+0.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)48.052.7100.7-4.636%-
vs Weaker (6)57.257.2114.3+0.050%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
50-56
50
56
-6
H03/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
D
52-52
52
52
+0
A05/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#25
W
65-53
65
53
+12
H07/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#9
W
57-49
57
49
+8
H08/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
53-59
53
59
-6
A11/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#13
W
65-48
65
48
+17
H14/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
53-60
53
60
-7
A15/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#27
W
54-46
54
46
+8
H16/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
39-52
39
52
-13
A19/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
55-59
55
59
-4
A21/01
NBA
107.7Avg total
54.3Scored
53.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.451.6106.0+2.853%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.248.9105.1+7.373%-
Last 30 away (15)52.654.3106.9-1.733%-
Last 10 (10)54.353.4107.7+0.940%-
Last 5 (5)53.253.0106.2+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)50.852.7103.5-1.833%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)56.152.3108.3+3.850%-
vs Weaker (6)53.048.7101.7+4.383%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 100.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.728.5
50.3%
50.2%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.59.4
34.2%
35.7%28.2
🏀 Free throws20.915.4
73.7%
77.0%15.4
They take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 103.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.2 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.130.3
49.6%
50.2%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.28.4
39.6%
35.7%25.2
🏀 Free throws22.717.2
75.8%
77.0%17.2
They take 82.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 26% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Jan 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLLLLWLLL
Milwaukee Bucks
LLLLWWLLWW
#13
League position
#14
-6.7
Net rating
-5.5
103.2
Offensive rating
107.4
109.9
Defensive rating
113.0
50.6%
Effective FG%
52.1%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
54.4%
12.7%
Turnover %
14.0%
19.2%
Off. rebound %
23.7%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.28
34.2%
3-point %
39.6%
60.2%
Assist %
63.3%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence103.2 · 107.4Defence109.9 · 113.0Shooting50.6% · 52.1%3-point %34.2% · 39.6%Ball care12.7% · 14.0%Off. rebounds19.2% · 23.7%Free throws0.25 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)30% · 40%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/17HDallas Mavericks99-95
18/01/17HHouston Rockets109-103
14/01/17AMilwaukee Bucks108-116
11/01/17AGolden State Warriors95-107
08/01/17ALos Angeles Clippers86-98
07/01/17ALos Angeles Lakers100-127
05/01/17ASacramento Kings107-102
04/01/17APhoenix Suns90-99
01/01/17HDetroit Pistons98-107
31/12/16ABoston Celtics114-117
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/01/17AOrlando Magic96-112
19/01/17AHouston Rockets92-111
16/01/17HPhiladelphia 76ers104-113
15/01/17AAtlanta Hawks98-111
14/01/17HMiami Heat116-108
11/01/17ASan Antonio Spurs109-107
08/01/17HWashington Wizards101-107
07/01/17HNew York Knicks111-116
05/01/17ANew York Knicks105-104
03/01/17HOklahoma City Thunder98-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW30%
HomeWLLWW35%
AwayWLLLL26%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games432023
Win %30%35%26%
Points / game98.6101.596.0
Allowed / game102.6102.6102.6
Point differential-4.0-1.1-6.6
Avg total201.2204.1198.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%15%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (12)20% (5)43% (7)
Overtime %5%10%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL48%
HomeWLLWL55%
AwayWWLLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422220
Win %48%55%40%
Points / game104.6108.8100.0
Allowed / game104.0104.8103.0
Point differential+0.6+4.0-3.0
Avg total208.6213.6203.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%27%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (12)43% (7)60% (5)
Overtime %5%5%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors4337686%118.0105.0+12.9
2 San Antonio Spurs4233979%107.398.5+8.8
3 Cleveland Cavaliers41301173%109.2104.1+5.1
4 Houston Rockets46331372%114.4107.7+6.7
5 Los Angeles Clippers44291566%108.1102.1+6.0
6 Toronto Raptors43281565%110.2104.6+5.6
7 Utah Jazz44281664%99.595.2+4.3
8 Boston Celtics43261760%107.3105.3+2.0
9 Atlanta Hawks44261859%102.9102.5+0.4
10 Memphis Grizzlies45261958%99.899.0+0.8
11 Oklahoma City Thunder44251957%106.3105.6+0.8
12 Washington Wizards43232053%106.1105.8+0.3
13 Indiana Pacers42222052%105.5106.6-1.1
14 Charlotte Hornets44232152%105.4103.0+2.3
15 Chicago Bulls44212348%101.2101.4-0.2
16 Milwaukee Bucks42202248%104.6104.0+0.6
17 Detroit Pistons45212447%100.5101.2-0.7
18 New York Knicks44192543%105.5108.3-2.8
19 Denver Nuggets41172441%109.6111.6-2.1
20 Portland Trail Blazers46192741%107.5110.5-3.0
21 Orlando Magic45182740%100.0104.7-4.8
22 New Orleans Pelicans44172739%102.8105.7-2.9
23 Sacramento Kings42162638%102.4105.5-3.1
24 Philadelphia 76ers42152736%99.0104.7-5.7
25 Minnesota Timberwolves43152835%103.1104.3-1.1
26 Los Angeles Lakers47163134%104.7110.2-5.4
27 Dallas Mavericks43142933%96.0100.7-4.7
28 Phoenix Suns42132931%105.8111.8-6.0
29 Miami Heat43133030%98.6102.6-4.0
30 Brooklyn Nets4393421%106.2114.9-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat25282927109
Milwaukee Bucks2221282697
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