PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 98-96
15-29 23-30 36-15 24-22
Position#5
Record33-18
FormLWWWW
Points / game115.9
Allowed / game108.6
vs
Position#17
Record27-24
FormLWLWL
Points / game120.1
Allowed / game118.0
USANBA· TD Garden
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Boston Celtics v Miami Heat
02 Apr 2027
BOS v MIA
upcoming
25 Dec 2026
BOS v MIA
upcoming
06 Feb 2026
BOS98
MIA96
19 Dec 2025
BOS129
MIA116
02 Apr 2025
BOS103
MIA124
02 Dec 2024
BOS108
MIA89
01 May 2024
BOS118
MIA84
24 Apr 2024
BOS101
MIA111
21 Apr 2024
BOS114
MIA94
27 Oct 2023
BOS119
MIA111
29 May 2023
BOS84
MIA103
25 May 2023
BOS110
MIA97
19 May 2023
BOS105
MIA111
17 May 2023
BOS116
MIA123
02 Dec 2022
BOS116
MIA120
30 Nov 2022
BOS134
MIA121
27 May 2022
BOS103
MIA111
23 May 2022
BOS102
MIA82
21 May 2022
BOS103
MIA109
30 Mar 2022
BOS98
MIA106
31 Jan 2022
BOS122
MIA92
11 May 2021
BOS121
MIA129
09 May 2021
BOS124
MIA130
25 Sep 2020
BOS121
MIA108
17 Sep 2020
BOS101
MIA106
15 Sep 2020
BOS114
MIA117
04 Dec 2019
BOS112
MIA93
01 Apr 2019
BOS110
MIA105
21 Jan 2019
BOS107
MIA99
20 Dec 2017
BOS89
MIA90
26 Mar 2017
BOS112
MIA108
30 Dec 2016
BOS117
MIA114
13 Apr 2016
BOS98
MIA88
27 Feb 2016
BOS101
MIA89
25 Mar 2015
BOS86
MIA93
01 Feb 2015
BOS75
MIA83
19 Mar 2014
BOS101
MIA96
18 Mar 2013
BOS103
MIA105
27 Jan 2013
BOS100
MIA98
07 Jun 2012
BOS79
MIA98
03 Jun 2012
BOS93
MIA91
01 Jun 2012
BOS101
MIA91
24 Apr 2012
BOS78
MIA66
01 Apr 2012
BOS91
MIA72
09 May 2011
BOS90
MIA98
07 May 2011
BOS97
MIA81
13 Feb 2011
BOS85
MIA82
26 Oct 2010
BOS88
MIA80
27 Apr 2010
BOS96
MIA86
20 Apr 2010
BOS106
MIA77
17 Apr 2010
BOS85
MIA76
03 Feb 2010
BOS107
MIA102
10 Apr 2009
BOS105
MIA98
18 Mar 2009
BOS112
MIA108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
103-104
103
104
-1
87avg 106
A20/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
119-104
119
104
+15
117avg 106
H22/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
130-126 OT
130
126
+4
116avg 106
A24/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
111-114
111
114
-3
98avg 106
A25/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
102-94
102
94
+8
89avg 106
H27/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
106-117
106
117
-11
100avg 106
H29/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
112-93
112
93
+19
101avg 106
H31/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
107-79
107
79
+28
101avg 106
H01/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
110-100
110
100
+10
103avg 106
A04/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
114-93
114
93
+21
112avg 106
A05/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-26
22-33
31-25
21-20
30-20
36-26
25-32
28-26
28-28
21-27
29-26
26-23
28-30
30-22
27-36
26-26
32-11
20-26
23-28
27-29
18-38
28-22
30-27
30-30
40-25
32-21
17-20
23-27
26-26
30-16
22-19
29-18
32-29
20-15
34-23
24-33
18-17
31-25
36-21
29-30
213.8Avg total
111.4Scored
102.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (51)115.9108.6224.5+7.365%
Season at home (24)115.4108.1223.5+7.367%
Season away (27)116.4109.0225.4+7.463%
Last 10 (10)111.4102.4213.8+9.070%
Last 5 (5)109.896.4206.2+13.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)105.4104.6210.0+0.820%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)118.6107.2225.8+11.480%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
112-135
112
135
-23
105avg 106
A20/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
130-117
130
117
+13
123avg 106
A21/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
110-127
110
127
-17
99avg 106
A23/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
147-116
147
116
+31
144avg 106
A25/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
111-102
111
102
+9
104avg 106
A26/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
124-133
124
133
-9
122avg 106
H29/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
116-113
116
113
+3
111avg 106
A30/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
L
118-125
118
125
-7
106avg 106
H01/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
134-91
134
91
+43
136avg 106
H01/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
115-127
115
127
-12
107avg 106
H04/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-36
32-34
27-34
19-31
32-25
45-39
23-25
30-28
31-38
32-26
29-39
18-24
35-34
38-18
35-37
39-27
32-21
26-27
24-29
29-25
27-34
41-25
20-40
36-34
34-31
28-20
29-34
25-28
25-31
38-25
21-35
34-34
34-13
28-27
39-22
33-29
23-33
27-34
31-31
34-29
240.3Avg total
121.7Scored
118.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (51)120.1118.0238.2+2.153%
Season at home (26)121.9117.6239.5+4.362%
Season away (25)118.3118.5236.8-0.244%
Last 10 (10)121.7118.6240.3+3.150%
Last 5 (5)121.4117.8239.2+3.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)117.8122.7240.5-4.833%
vs Similar (13)113.3119.2232.5-5.931%
vs Weaker (11)121.5113.4234.8+8.164%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +6.0+6.0Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.8+0.8
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +6.0+6.0Q3Q3: +1.7+1.7Q3: -4.8-4.8Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.8+0.8
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
51-59
51
59
-8
A20/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
66-46
66
46
+20
H22/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
49-55
49
55
-6
A24/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
58-52
58
52
+6
A25/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H27/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
46-60
46
60
-14
H29/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
72-46
72
46
+26
H31/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
56-42
56
42
+14
H01/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
52-44
52
44
+8
A04/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
49-42
49
42
+7
A05/02
NBA
103.4Avg total
55.1Scored
48.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.853.4113.2+6.470%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.050.0108.0+8.069%-
Last 30 away (17)61.256.1117.2+5.171%-
Last 10 (10)55.148.3103.4+6.870%-
Last 5 (5)55.046.8101.8+8.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)54.052.4106.4+1.660%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)61.053.6114.6+7.372%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
66-70
66
70
-4
A20/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-64
77
64
+13
A21/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A23/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
73-52
73
52
+21
A25/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
58-48
58
48
+10
A26/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
68-59
68
59
+9
H29/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
62-51
62
51
+11
A30/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
63-56
63
56
+7
H01/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
62-40
62
40
+22
H01/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
50-67
50
67
-17
H04/02
NBA
121.3Avg total
64.2Scored
57.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.157.6117.7+2.453%-
Last 30 at home (14)59.457.5116.9+1.950%-
Last 30 away (16)60.757.8118.4+2.956%-
Last 10 (10)64.257.1121.3+7.170%-
Last 5 (5)61.054.6115.6+6.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)61.058.5119.5+2.550%-
vs Similar (13)58.657.5116.1+1.246%-
vs Weaker (11)61.357.4118.6+3.964%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 111.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.7 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.9 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.126.9
52.6%
54.8%53.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.814.9
35.6%
35.8%44.7
🏀 Free throws16.812.9
76.8%
78.1%12.9
They take 92.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 121.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.8 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.030.5
53.5%
54.8%61.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.113.3
33.2%
35.8%39.9
🏀 Free throws25.920.8
80.3%
78.1%20.8
They take 97.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 07 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boston Celtics
WWWWLWLWWL
Miami Heat
LWLWLWWLWL
#5
League position
#17
+9.2
Net rating
+2.9
114.3
Offensive rating
113.4
105.0
Defensive rating
110.5
53.0%
Effective FG%
52.0%
49.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.8%
11.5%
Turnover %
12.6%
28.8%
Off. rebound %
28.9%
0.18
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.6%
3-point %
33.2%
59.1%
Assist %
67.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence114.3 · 113.4Defence105.0 · 110.5Shooting53.0% · 52.0%3-point %35.6% · 33.2%Ball care11.5% · 12.6%Off. rebounds28.8% · 28.9%Free throws0.18 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Boston Celtics   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Boston Celtics wins
2
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/02/26AHouston Rockets114-93
04/02/26ADallas Mavericks110-100
01/02/26HMilwaukee Bucks107-79
31/01/26HSacramento Kings112-93
29/01/26HAtlanta Hawks106-117
27/01/26HPortland Trail Blazers102-94
25/01/26AChicago Bulls111-114
24/01/26ABrooklyn Nets130-126 OT
22/01/26HIndiana Pacers119-104
20/01/26ADetroit Pistons103-104
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/02/26HAtlanta Hawks115-127
01/02/26HChicago Bulls134-91
01/02/26HChicago Bulls118-125
30/01/26AChicago Bulls116-113
29/01/26HOrlando Magic124-133
26/01/26APhoenix Suns111-102
25/01/26AUtah Jazz147-116
23/01/26APortland Trail Blazers110-127
21/01/26ASacramento Kings130-117
20/01/26AGolden State Warriors112-135

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boston Celtics
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW65%
HomeWWLWW67%
AwayLWLWW63%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games512427
Win %65%67%63%
Points / game115.9115.4116.4
Allowed / game108.6108.1109.0
Point differential+7.3+7.3+7.4
Avg total224.5223.5225.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%38%41%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (16)33% (6)50% (10)
Overtime %2%0%4%
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL53%
HomeWLLWL62%
AwayWLWWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games512625
Win %53%62%44%
Points / game120.1121.9118.3
Allowed / game118.0117.6118.5
Point differential+2.1+4.3-0.2
Avg total238.2239.5236.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%31%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (12)75% (8)50% (4)
Overtime %2%4%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder50391178%120.0108.2+11.9
2 Detroit Pistons50371374%117.5110.3+7.2
3 San Antonio Spurs49331667%117.1111.9+5.2
4 Boston Celtics51331865%115.9108.6+7.3
5 Denver Nuggets52331963%120.1116.2+3.9
6 New York Knicks49311863%117.9112.2+5.7
7 Los Angeles Lakers49311863%116.3115.8+0.5
8 Houston Rockets50311962%115.2110.1+5.1
9 Minnesota Timberwolves52322062%119.6114.8+4.9
10 Phoenix Suns51312061%114.3110.9+3.4
11 Cleveland Cavaliers52312160%119.4115.8+3.7
12 Toronto Raptors52312160%114.2112.3+1.9
13 Philadelphia 76ers51292257%116.8115.4+1.5
14 Golden State Warriors52282454%115.9113.6+2.3
15 Miami Heat51272453%120.1118.0+2.1
16 Orlando Magic48252352%114.9115.3-0.4
17 Atlanta Hawks53262749%117.5118.3-0.8
18 Charlotte Hornets52242846%115.8113.9+1.9
19 Chicago Bulls52242846%117.0120.2-3.2
20 Los Angeles Clippers50232746%112.3113.1-0.8
21 Portland Trail Blazers51232845%115.3118.1-2.9
22 Memphis Grizzlies49202941%115.3117.0-1.7
23 Milwaukee Bucks49202941%112.1116.1-3.9
24 Dallas Mavericks51193237%114.0116.8-2.8
25 Utah Jazz52163631%118.3126.8-8.5
26 Washington Wizards50143628%112.3122.6-10.2
27 Brooklyn Nets50133726%106.9115.0-8.0
28 Indiana Pacers51133825%110.9118.7-7.7
29 New Orleans Pelicans53134025%114.5121.0-6.5
30 Sacramento Kings52124023%110.5120.5-10.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Boston Celtics1523362498
Miami Heat2930152296
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.