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Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 25 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 23:30
Scheduled
Position#18
Record5-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game120.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.3/10
Below normal
3.8/10
Below normal
Position#29
Record1-11
FormLLLLL
Points / game106.6
Allowed / game118.1
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Utah Jazz
25 Mar 2027
MIA v UTA
upcoming
09 Feb 2026
MIA111
UTA115
04 Jan 2025
MIA100
UTA136
02 Mar 2024
MIA126
UTA120
13 Mar 2023
MIA119
UTA115
06 Nov 2021
MIA118
UTA115
26 Feb 2021
MIA124
UTA116
23 Dec 2019
MIA107
UTA104
02 Dec 2018
MIA102
UTA100
07 Jan 2018
MIA103
UTA102
12 Nov 2016
MIA91
UTA102
12 Nov 2015
MIA92
UTA91
17 Dec 2014
MIA87
UTA105
16 Dec 2013
MIA117
UTA94
22 Dec 2012
MIA105
UTA89
09 Nov 2010
MIA114
UTA116
23 Dec 2009
MIA80
UTA70
14 Mar 2009
MIA140
UTA129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Utah Jazz win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#8
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 111
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 111
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 111
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 111
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 111
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 111
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 111
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 111
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 111
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 111
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
235.6Avg total
116.7Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7120.0235.7-4.345%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)116.7118.9235.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)112.6118.2230.8-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar (13)121.4123.8245.2-2.438%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)126.4119.2245.6+7.175%
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utah JazzUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJazz
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
123-132
123
132
-9
119avg 98
H25/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
L
105-110
105
110
-5
95avg 98
H27/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#3
L
111-117 OT
111
117
-6
105avg 98
H29/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
90-112
90
112
-22
80avg 98
H31/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#3
L
97-119
97
119
-22
79avg 98
A03/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
113-120 OT
113
120
-7
101avg 98
A05/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
100-112
100
112
-12
95avg 98
A07/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
100-115
100
115
-15
85avg 98
A09/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
L
109-115
109
115
-6
108avg 98
H11/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
108-123
108
123
-15
96avg 98
H12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
47-29
24-45
29-29
23-29
21-30
31-28
24-31
29-21
32-22
23-29
30-34
20-20
18-27
24-32
22-29
26-24
16-27
33-32
20-35
28-25
24-24
13-18
43-28
24-34
28-26
29-31
19-32
24-23
25-28
26-29
27-33
22-25
25-29
29-35
18-28
37-23
34-29
25-37
28-19
21-38
223.1Avg total
105.6Scored
117.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)106.6118.1224.7-11.58%
Season at home (7)109.4118.3227.7-8.914%
Season away (5)102.6117.8220.4-15.20%
Last 10 (10)105.6117.5223.1-11.90%
Last 5 (5)106.0117.0223.0-11.00%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)111.0125.8236.8-14.88%
vs Similar (5)126.6120.4247.0+6.240%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -5.9-5.9Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -0.8-0.8
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -5.9-5.9Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -3.8-3.8Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -0.8-0.8
Miami HeatUtah Jazz
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#8
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
122.2Avg total
60.9Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.462.5123.8-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.462.4124.9+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.3122.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)61.862.4124.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar (13)57.862.7120.5-4.838%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)68.660.0128.6+8.675%-
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utah JazzLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
71-74
71
74
-3
H25/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
L
52-58
52
58
-6
H27/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#3
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H29/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
42-59
42
59
-17
H31/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#3
L
49-59
49
59
-10
A03/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
37-42
37
42
-5
A05/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
D
57-57
57
57
+0
A07/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
51-57
51
57
-6
A09/11
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
L
54-64
54
64
-10
H11/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
L
59-66
59
66
-7
H12/11
NBA
111.4Avg total
52.7Scored
58.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.761.3117.0-5.627%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.660.4118.9-1.844%-
Last 30 away (14)52.562.4114.9-9.97%-
Last 10 (10)52.758.7111.4-6.010%-
Last 5 (5)51.657.2108.8-5.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)54.862.2117.1-7.420%-
vs Similar (5)60.256.6116.8+3.660%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.129.7
55.9%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.6
35.1%
35.1%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.118.7
74.5%
77.1%18.7
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Utah Jazztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Utah Jazz: 107.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.8 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.026.2
52.4%
54.0%52.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.911.9
32.2%
35.1%35.7
🏀 Free throws25.419.8
78.0%
77.1%19.8
They take 86.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWLLL
Utah Jazz
LLLLLLLLLL
#18
League position
#29
-0.5
Net rating
-9.3
111.7
Offensive rating
104.2
112.2
Defensive rating
113.4
54.5%
Effective FG%
50.7%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
52.1%
11.9%
Turnover %
16.4%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
26.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.29
35.1%
3-point %
32.2%
66.3%
Assist %
65.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
0%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 104.2Defence112.2 · 113.4Shooting54.5% · 50.7%3-point %35.1% · 32.2%Ball care11.9% · 16.4%Off. rebounds19.3% · 26.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)50% · 0%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Utah Jazz
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Miami Heat wins
3
Utah Jazz wins
DateGameScore
11/11/26Utah Jazz v Miami Heat109-115
10/02/26Miami Heat v Utah Jazz111-115
25/01/26Utah Jazz v Miami Heat116-147
10/01/25Utah Jazz v Miami Heat92-97
05/01/25Miami Heat v Utah Jazz100-136
02/03/24Miami Heat v Utah Jazz126-120
30/12/23Utah Jazz v Miami Heat117-109
13/03/23Miami Heat v Utah Jazz119-115
01/01/23Utah Jazz v Miami Heat123-126
13/11/21Utah Jazz v Miami Heat105-111
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
Utah Jazzlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HOrlando Magic108-123
11/11/26HMiami Heat109-115
09/11/26AMinnesota Timberwolves100-115
07/11/26ADallas Mavericks100-112
05/11/26ANew Orleans Pelicans113-120 OT
03/11/26ASan Antonio Spurs97-119
31/10/26HPortland Trail Blazers90-112
29/10/26HSan Antonio Spurs111-117 OT
27/10/26HMemphis Grizzlies105-110
25/10/26HLos Angeles Lakers123-132

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%25%57%
Points / game115.7117.8114.6
Allowed / game120.0124.2117.6
Point differential-4.3-6.5-3.0
Avg total235.7242.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%14%
Utah Jazz
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 0 Wins / 10 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL8%
HomeLLLLL14%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1275
Win %8%14%0%
Points / game106.6109.4102.6
Allowed / game118.1118.3117.8
Point differential-11.5-8.9-15.2
Avg total224.7227.7220.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)50% (2)-
Overtime %17%14%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
2 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
3 San Antonio Spurs1210283%119.2108.0+11.2
4 Houston Rockets129375%115.4106.5+8.9
5 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
7 Portland Trail Blazers118373%119.5112.3+7.3
8 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
9 Golden State Warriors128467%119.3111.5+7.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder128467%111.1106.9+4.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies117464%117.9111.9+6.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 New York Knicks116555%110.3103.5+6.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers126650%116.4114.3+2.1
17 Toronto Raptors115645%114.5111.9+2.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 Orlando Magic114736%108.5114.0-5.5
21 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
22 Indiana Pacers124833%111.6114.0-2.4
23 Washington Wizards124833%107.5113.4-5.9
24 New Orleans Pelicans124833%116.9124.2-7.3
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls101910%113.3128.8-15.5
28 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
29 Utah Jazz121118%106.6118.1-11.5
30 Milwaukee Bucks121118%106.8121.3-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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