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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 09 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 127-103
28-29 33-31 25-23 41-20
Position#1
Record50-11
FormWWWWW
Points / game119.6
Allowed / game106.9
vs
Position#9
Record41-22
FormLWLWW
Points / game121.5
Allowed / game116.3
USANBA· Paycom Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
30 Jan 2027
OKC v DEN
upcoming
22 Oct 2026
OKC96
DEN84
09 Mar 2026
OKC129
DEN126
27 Feb 2026
OKC127
DEN121
18 May 2025
OKC125
DEN93
13 May 2025
OKC112
DEN105
07 May 2025
OKC149
DEN106
05 May 2025
OKC119
DEN121
10 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN140
09 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN103
31 Jan 2024
OKC105
DEN100
29 Oct 2023
OKC95
DEN128
23 Nov 2022
OKC126
DEN131
03 Nov 2022
OKC110
DEN122
09 Jan 2022
OKC95
DEN99
22 Dec 2021
OKC108
DEN94
27 Feb 2021
OKC96
DEN126
03 Aug 2020
OKC113
DEN121
21 Feb 2020
OKC113
DEN101
29 Mar 2019
OKC105
DEN115
24 Nov 2018
OKC98
DEN105
30 Mar 2018
OKC125
DEN126
18 Dec 2017
OKC95
DEN94
12 Apr 2017
OKC105
DEN111
07 Jan 2017
OKC121
DEN106
27 Dec 2015
OKC122
DEN112
01 Nov 2015
OKC117
DEN93
22 Feb 2015
OKC119
DEN94
01 Nov 2014
OKC102
DEN91
24 Mar 2014
OKC117
DEN96
18 Nov 2013
OKC115
DEN113
19 Mar 2013
OKC104
DEN114
16 Jan 2013
OKC117
DEN97
25 Apr 2012
OKC101
DEN106
19 Feb 2012
OKC124
DEN118
27 Apr 2011
OKC100
DEN97
20 Apr 2011
OKC106
DEN89
17 Apr 2011
OKC107
DEN103
08 Apr 2011
OKC104
DEN89
25 Dec 2010
OKC114
DEN106
07 Apr 2010
OKC94
DEN98
29 Jan 2010
OKC101
DEN84
04 Feb 2009
OKC113
DEN114
02 Jan 2009
OKC120
DEN122
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
101-116
101
116
-15
95avg 110
A14/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
130-107
130
107
+23
132avg 110
A22/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
130-123
130
123
+7
128avg 110
A24/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
128-131 OT
128
131
-3
115avg 110
H25/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
129-121
129
121
+8
125avg 110
A27/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
135-119
135
119
+16
131avg 110
A01/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
146-132
146
132
+14
142avg 110
A03/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
137-128
137
128
+9
133avg 110
H04/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
120-103
120
103
+17
114avg 110
A06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
107-89
107
89
+18
102avg 110
H08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-37
32-27
31-33
14-19
29-22
39-25
31-37
31-23
35-23
26-40
42-33
27-27
32-28
32-17
38-35
19-41
29-40
32-36
29-20
39-25
40-23
31-41
37-20
27-35
41-38
31-39
36-23
38-32
30-31
33-31
39-27
35-39
30-28
31-27
30-23
29-25
29-24
34-21
17-28
27-16
243.2Avg total
126.3Scored
116.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (61)119.6106.9226.5+12.882%
Season at home (30)121.1106.0227.1+15.287%
Season away (31)118.1107.7225.8+10.477%
Last 10 (10)126.3116.9243.2+9.480%
Last 5 (5)129.0114.2243.2+14.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)120.3111.7232.0+8.767%
vs Weaker ◀ (27)124.3110.3234.6+14.081%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
146-117
146
117
+29
155avg 114
H11/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
132-121
132
121
+11
125avg 114
H13/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
129-115
129
115
+14
126avg 114
H21/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
100-123
100
123
-23
94avg 114
H23/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
125-116
125
116
+9
130avg 114
A25/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
112-121
112
121
-9
104avg 114
A28/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
134-119
134
119
+15
135avg 114
A01/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
103-110
103
110
-7
96avg 114
A02/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
116-110
116
110
+6
111avg 114
H06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
149-141 OT
149
141
+8
153avg 114
H08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-27
32-28
42-37
34-25
40-27
35-29
32-35
25-30
38-30
28-28
33-38
30-19
31-38
23-25
33-33
13-27
36-28
28-30
36-25
25-33
30-30
27-24
24-30
31-37
39-31
29-32
39-24
27-32
20-32
28-29
29-22
26-27
29-42
26-23
29-28
32-17
37-28
31-28
34-35
23-34
243.9Avg total
124.6Scored
119.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)121.5116.3237.8+5.265%
Season at home (31)123.5116.3239.8+7.171%
Season away (32)119.5116.3235.8+3.259%
Last 10 (10)124.6119.3243.9+5.370%
Last 5 (5)122.8120.2243.0+2.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)104.5114.0218.5-9.50%
vs Similar (15)117.1113.4230.5+3.767%
vs Weaker (13)130.9117.2248.1+13.892%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +5.1+5.1Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -1.5-1.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: +2.5+2.5Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +1.1+1.1Q3Q3: +5.1+5.1Q3: +2.4+2.4Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: -1.5-1.5
Oklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
56-64
56
64
-8
A14/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
68-47
68
47
+21
A22/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
61-63
61
63
-2
A24/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
64-45
64
45
+19
H25/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
61-76
61
76
-15
A27/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
71-64
71
64
+7
A01/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
72-77
72
77
-5
A03/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
63-62
63
62
+1
H04/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
61-55
61
55
+6
A06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
63-45
63
45
+18
H08/03
NBA
123.8Avg total
64.0Scored
59.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)63.555.7119.2+7.867%-
Last 30 at home (15)64.354.5118.9+9.873%-
Last 30 away (15)62.756.9119.5+5.860%-
Last 10 (10)64.059.8123.8+4.260%-
Last 5 (5)66.060.6126.6+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (3)63.058.7121.7+4.333%-
vs Weaker ◀ (27)63.655.4118.9+8.270%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H11/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
75-56
75
56
+19
H13/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H21/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
54-63
54
63
-9
H23/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
64-58
64
58
+6
A25/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A28/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
68-63
68
63
+5
A01/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
48-61
48
61
-13
A02/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
55-65
55
65
-10
H06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
68-56
68
56
+12
H08/03
NBA
121.4Avg total
62.5Scored
58.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.858.0120.8+4.767%-
Last 30 at home (15)64.758.3123.0+6.367%-
Last 30 away (15)60.957.7118.6+3.167%-
Last 10 (10)62.558.9121.4+3.670%-
Last 5 (5)59.259.8119.0-0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)52.559.0111.5-6.50%-
vs Similar (15)60.657.9118.5+2.760%-
vs Weaker (13)66.858.1124.9+8.885%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 126.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers47.1 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.630.4
55.7%
54.3%60.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.115.7
40.2%
35.9%47.1
🏀 Free throws21.718.4
84.8%
77.8%18.4
They take 93.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 124.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers68.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.034.0
58.6%
54.3%68.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.313.7
39.9%
35.9%41.1
🏀 Free throws19.815.5
78.3%
77.8%15.5
They take 92.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
WWWWWWLWWL
Denver Nuggets
WWLWLWLWWW
#1
League position
#9
+9.0
Net rating
+5.1
121.3
Offensive rating
120.8
112.3
Defensive rating
115.7
57.6%
Effective FG%
59.1%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
55.0%
10.5%
Turnover %
13.2%
23.6%
Off. rebound %
26.7%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.21
40.2%
3-point %
39.9%
65.7%
Assist %
67.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence121.3 · 120.8Defence112.3 · 115.7Shooting57.6% · 59.1%3-point %40.2% · 39.9%Ball care10.5% · 13.2%Off. rebounds23.6% · 26.7%Free throws0.23 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25HPortland Trail Blazers107-89
06/03/25AMemphis Grizzlies120-103
04/03/25HHouston Rockets137-128
03/03/25ASan Antonio Spurs146-132
01/03/25AAtlanta Hawks135-119
27/02/25ABrooklyn Nets129-121
25/02/25HMinnesota Timberwolves128-131 OT
24/02/25AMinnesota Timberwolves130-123
22/02/25AUtah Jazz130-107
14/02/25AMinnesota Timberwolves101-116
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/25HPhoenix Suns149-141 OT
06/03/25HSacramento Kings116-110
02/03/25ABoston Celtics103-110
01/03/25ADetroit Pistons134-119
28/02/25AMilwaukee Bucks112-121
25/02/25AIndiana Pacers125-116
23/02/25HLos Angeles Lakers100-123
21/02/25HCharlotte Hornets129-115
13/02/25HPortland Trail Blazers132-121
11/02/25HPortland Trail Blazers146-117

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW82%
HomeWWLWW87%
AwayWWWWW77%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games613031
Win %82%87%77%
Points / game119.6121.1118.1
Allowed / game106.9106.0107.7
Point differential+12.8+15.2+10.4
Avg total226.5227.1225.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%73%55%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)0% (2)33% (3)
Overtime %2%3%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW65%
HomeWWLWW71%
AwayWWLWL59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633132
Win %65%71%59%
Points / game121.5123.5119.5
Allowed / game116.3116.3116.3
Point differential+5.2+7.1+3.2
Avg total237.8239.8235.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%48%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (16)57% (7)67% (9)
Overtime %8%3%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers63531084%123.1111.7+11.4
2 Oklahoma City Thunder61501182%119.6106.9+12.8
3 Boston Celtics64461872%117.0108.2+8.8
4 Denver Nuggets63412265%121.5116.3+5.2
5 New York Knicks62402265%117.2112.9+4.3
6 Los Angeles Lakers62402265%112.9111.1+1.8
7 Memphis Grizzlies63392462%122.9116.9+6.0
8 Houston Rockets62382461%113.8109.6+4.2
9 Golden State Warriors63362757%113.7111.5+2.2
10 Milwaukee Bucks60342657%114.9112.7+2.2
11 Indiana Pacers62352756%116.6115.3+1.3
12 Minnesota Timberwolves65362955%112.4109.0+3.4
13 Detroit Pistons64352955%114.6113.1+1.5
14 Los Angeles Clippers63342954%110.8108.6+2.2
15 Sacramento Kings62332953%117.0115.0+2.0
16 Dallas Mavericks63323151%114.7114.0+0.7
17 Orlando Magic64303447%104.5106.1-1.6
18 Atlanta Hawks62293347%117.5120.2-2.7
19 Miami Heat63293446%110.1110.5-0.5
20 Phoenix Suns63293446%114.3116.5-2.2
21 Portland Trail Blazers64283644%110.4114.3-3.9
22 San Antonio Spurs61263543%113.2115.4-2.2
23 Chicago Bulls64263841%116.6120.6-4.0
24 Philadelphia 76ers62214134%109.0114.0-5.0
25 Brooklyn Nets63214233%105.1111.6-6.5
26 Toronto Raptors64214333%110.6116.0-5.4
27 New Orleans Pelicans64174727%110.9119.2-8.4
28 Utah Jazz63154824%112.4119.7-7.3
29 Charlotte Hornets63154824%105.3113.0-7.6
30 Washington Wizards62134921%108.5120.5-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Oklahoma City Thunder28332541127
Denver Nuggets29312320103
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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