Zalgiris Kaunas vs Neptunas Prediction & Stats

Zalgiris Kaunas will host Neptunas on 15 November 2026 in the LKL, and the Pythia model names the Lithuanian powerhouse as the clear favourite, rating a 93% chance of victory largely because of their unblemished 9-0 record, 93.2 points per game and 76.1 allowed, and a 4-0 home record with 95.0 points per game and 72.2 allowed. Neptunas, meanwhile, sit fourth with a 5-4 record, 85.2 points per game and 84.7 allowed, but their road form is poor, 1-3 with 79.5 points per game and 88.8 allowed, and they have only won two of their last five outings. In the ten meetings between the clubs, Zalgiris has won every encounter, most recently 93-69 on 20 September 2026. Pythia projects a 97-78 score, a 175.1 total, and a 62% probability that Zalgiris will cover the home line of -15.0; the over on the 171.25 line has a 59% chance, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime. The last five games show Zalgiris beating Olimpia Milano 86-83, Juventus 94-85 and Besiktas 83-67, while Neptunas has won only against Slask Wroclaw 90-82 and Taurage 82-80, losing to Tofas 79-94.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zalgiris Kaunas win

93.5%fair 1.07

Best odds1.13

Implied84.0%

Edge+9.5pp

Neptunas win

6.5%fair 15.30

Best odds8.00

Implied16.0%

Edge-9.5pp

Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Zalgiris Kaunas Lithuania

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormKaunas

Date

Competition

Anadolu Efes

#12

70-85

-15

63avg 89

H16/10

Euroleague

Taurage

96-76

+20

95avg 89

H18/10

LKL

Lyon-Villeurbanne

#15

105-85

105

+20

106avg 89

H23/10

Euroleague

Jonava

86-63

+23

93avg 89

H25/10

LKL

Virtus Bologna

#16

91-74

+17

89avg 89

A28/10

Euroleague

Partizan

#11

87-80

84avg 89

H30/10

Euroleague

Rytas

94-89

no box

A02/11

LKL

Besiktas

#13

83-67

+16

no box

A06/11

Euroleague

Juventus

94-85

no box

A08/11

LKL

Olimpia Milano

#19

86-83

no box

A12/11

Euroleague

12-21

24-21

20-25

14-18

25-23

18-19

30-14

23-20

29-20

21-14

31-25

24-26

24-15

17-11

24-14

21-23

14-22

23-13

28-18

26-21

27-21

17-19

25-17

18-23

25-21

17-28

28-20

24-20

20-17

25-14

17-13

21-23

21-17

27-25

12-20

34-23

18-25

27-16

18-11

23-31

167.9Avg total

89.2Scored

78.7Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	93.2	76.1	169.3	+17.1	100%
Season at home (4)	95.0	72.2	167.2	+22.8	100%
Season away (5)	91.8	79.2	171.0	+12.6	100%
Last 10 (10)	89.2	78.7	167.9	+10.5	90%
Last 5 (5)	88.8	80.8	169.6	+8.0	100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	91.0	93.0	184.0	-2.0	0%
vs Similar (4)	84.5	84.2	168.8	+0.2	75%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	93.4	78.2	171.6	+15.2	92%

This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Neptunas

Last 10 – points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

🔥 FormNeptunas

Date

Competition

Rytas

77-86

-9

65avg 82

A10/10

LKL

JL Bourg

#24

93-89

86avg 82

H13/10

Eurocup

Jonava

84-83

75avg 82

A17/10

LKL

Buducnost

#10

89-104

104

-15

81avg 82

A20/10

Eurocup

Siauliai

110-88

110

+22

108avg 82

H25/10

LKL

Basket Napoli

85-94

-9

77avg 82

H28/10

Eurocup

Lietkabelis

79-99

-20

78avg 82

A31/10

LKL

Tofas

79-94

-15

no box

A03/11

Eurocup

Taurage

82-80

no box

H07/11

LKL

Slask Wroclaw

#31

90-82

no box

H10/11

Eurocup

22-18

18-22

21-27

16-19

32-14

19-29

17-24

25-22

29-24

19-21

17-21

19-17

22-31

20-25

26-24

21-24

25-23

26-17

31-26

28-22

20-24

25-23

20-24

20-23

33-19

20-29

11-25

15-26

29-19

20-24

10-24

20-27

11-22

23-21

20-23

28-14

21-18

17-20

30-26

22-18

176.7Avg total

86.8Scored

89.9Allowed

Split	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Win %
Season (9)	85.2	84.7	169.9	+0.6	56%
Season at home (5)	89.8	81.4	171.2	+8.4	80%
Season away (4)	79.5	88.8	168.2	-9.2	25%
Last 10 (10)	86.8	89.9	176.7	-3.1	50%
Last 5 (5)	83.0	89.8	172.8	-6.8	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	82.7	95.2	177.8	-12.5	0%
vs Similar (11)	83.6	82.5	166.1	+1.2	55%
vs Weaker (13)	89.5	85.5	175.0	+4.1	62%

This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

Pythia expects about 175 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%). The market's main line is 171.5.

Over/Under 166.5

Over 166.5

70.8%

@ 1.54+10.4pp

Under 166.5

29.2%

@ 2.45-10.4pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.54

Betano

1.47

Under

Betano

2.45

1xBet

2.16

Over/Under 171.5 · main line

Over 171.5

58.9%

@ 1.87+8.9pp

Under 171.5

41.1%

@ 1.95-8.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

1.87

WilliamHill

1.85

SBO

1.83

Betano

1.80

Marathon Be

1.80

Under

Bet365

1.95

Betano

1.87

Pinnacle

1.87

Marathon Be

1.87

WilliamHill

1.85

Over/Under 176.5

Over 176.5

46.2%

@ 2.32+5.8pp

Under 176.5

53.8%

@ 1.57-5.8pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.32

Bet365

2.25

1xBet

2.21

Under

Bet365

1.57

Betano

1.52

1xBet

1.50

📊 3. Team Totals

Zalgiris Kaunas total 90.5

Over 90.5

74.0%

@ 1.54+13.6pp

Under 90.5

26.0%

@ 2.35-13.6pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.54

Betano

1.52

1xBet

1.45

Under

Bet365

2.35

Betano

2.32

1xBet

2.16

Zalgiris Kaunas total 94.5 · main line

Over 94.5

59.4%

@ 1.98+13.0pp

Under 94.5

40.6%

@ 1.83-13.0pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.98

1xBet

1.86

Bet365

1.83

Under

Bet365

1.83

Betano

1.70

1xBet

1.61

Zalgiris Kaunas total 98.5

Over 98.5

43.3%

@ 2.65+8.3pp

Under 98.5

56.7%

@ 1.45-8.3pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

2.65

1xBet

2.65

Betano

2.52

Under

Betano

1.45

Bet365

1.43

1xBet

1.32

Neptunas total 74.5

Over 74.5

64.5%

@ 1.44+0.9pp

Under 74.5

35.5%

@ 2.70-0.9pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.44

Bet365

1.41

1xBet

1.38

Under

Bet365

2.70

Betano

2.52

1xBet

2.38

Neptunas total 78.5 · main line

Over 78.5

48.7%

@ 1.85-1.2pp

Under 78.5

51.3%

@ 1.83+1.2pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

1.85

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.83

1xBet

1.73

Under

Bet365

1.83

Marathon Be

1.83

Betano

1.82

1xBet

1.71

Neptunas total 82.5

Over 82.5

33.1%

@ 2.57-3.1pp

Under 82.5

66.9%

@ 1.50+3.1pp

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betano

2.57

Bet365

2.50

1xBet

2.41

Under

Bet365

1.50

Betano

1.42

1xBet

1.37

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

Margin from Zalgiris Kaunas's side (positive = Zalgiris Kaunas win). Pythia's expected margin is +18.5; Zalgiris Kaunas win by 1+ in 90% of simulations.

Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -18

ZAL -18

51.7%

@ 2.39+13.0pp

NEP +18

48.3%

@ 1.58-13.0pp

Best 5 market prices

ZAL

Pinnacle

2.39

Bet365

2.22

NEP

Bet365

1.58

Marathon Be

1.54

Pinnacle

1.51

Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -15 · main line

ZAL -15

62.0%

@ 1.88+12.4pp

NEP +15

38.0%

@ 1.85-12.4pp

Best 5 market prices

ZAL

Pinnacle

1.88

SBO

1.86

Marathon Be

1.84

1xBet

1.84

Bet365

1.83

NEP

Pinnacle

1.85

Bet365

1.83

SBO

1.82

Marathon Be

1.81

1xBet

1.81

Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -12

ZAL -12

71.5%

@ 1.55+10.6pp

NEP +12

28.5%

@ 2.36-10.6pp

Best 5 market prices

ZAL

Bet365

1.55

Marathon Be

1.55

Pinnacle

1.52

NEP

Pinnacle

2.36

Bet365

2.30

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

Zalgiris KaunasNeptunas

Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.

Bets by quarter and half · pick a period

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 43.5
Last 30 (30)	22.6	19.6	42.2	+3.0	77%	37%
Last 30 at home (15)	24.1	19.9	43.9	+4.2	80%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	21.1	19.3	40.4	+1.9	73%	20%
Last 10 (10)	21.5	20.2	41.7	+1.3	70%	40%
Last 5 (5)	22.2	20.2	42.4	+2.0	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	24.0	21.0	45.0	+3.0	100%	100%
vs Similar (4)	23.0	21.8	44.8	+1.2	75%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	22.5	19.2	41.6	+3.3	76%	32%

1st quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 43.5
Last 30 (30)	23.3	21.9	45.2	+1.4	47%	67%
Last 30 at home (17)	22.6	21.2	43.8	+1.5	41%	65%
Last 30 away (13)	24.2	22.8	47.1	+1.4	54%	69%
Last 10 (10)	24.4	21.2	45.6	+3.2	70%	70%
Last 5 (5)	22.8	20.4	43.2	+2.4	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	21.0	25.3	46.3	-4.3	17%	83%
vs Similar (11)	24.6	19.2	43.8	+5.5	82%	55%
vs Weaker (13)	23.3	22.6	45.9	+0.7	31%	69%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.75
Last 30 (30)	22.4	19.7	42.1	+2.8	63%	50%
Last 30 at home (15)	22.7	19.7	42.3	+3.0	60%	53%
Last 30 away (15)	22.2	19.7	41.9	+2.5	67%	47%
Last 10 (10)	21.6	18.0	39.6	+3.6	70%	40%
Last 5 (5)	22.6	20.4	43.0	+2.2	60%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	20.0	23.0	43.0	-3.0	0%	100%
vs Similar (4)	19.2	22.2	41.5	-3.0	25%	25%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	23.0	19.1	42.2	+3.9	72%	52%

2nd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.75
Last 30 (30)	21.3	21.0	42.3	+0.3	50%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	22.6	20.5	43.1	+2.1	65%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	19.6	21.6	41.2	-2.0	31%	46%
Last 10 (10)	20.7	23.1	43.8	-2.4	30%	70%
Last 5 (5)	21.0	23.4	44.4	-2.4	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	22.2	24.2	46.3	-2.0	33%	83%
vs Similar (11)	20.9	19.4	40.3	+1.5	55%	36%
vs Weaker (13)	21.2	20.8	42.1	+0.4	54%	54%

Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Anadolu Efes

#12

36-42

-6

H16/10

Euroleague

Taurage

43-42

H18/10

LKL

Lyon-Villeurbanne

#15

50-34

+16

H23/10

Euroleague

Jonava

41-26

+15

H25/10

LKL

Virtus Bologna

#16

37-35

A28/10

Euroleague

Partizan

#11

44-40

H30/10

Euroleague

Rytas

42-49

-7

A02/11

LKL

Besiktas

#13

45-31

+14

A06/11

Euroleague

Juventus

48-42

A08/11

LKL

Olimpia Milano

#19

45-41

A12/11

Euroleague

81.3Avg total

43.1Scored

38.2Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 86.25
Last 30 (30)	45.0	39.2	84.3	+5.8	70%	37%
Last 30 at home (15)	46.7	39.5	86.3	+7.2	80%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	43.3	38.9	82.3	+4.4	60%	33%
Last 10 (10)	43.1	38.2	81.3	+4.9	80%	20%
Last 5 (5)	44.8	40.6	85.4	+4.2	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	44.0	44.0	88.0	+0.0	0%	100%
vs Similar (4)	42.2	44.0	86.2	-1.8	25%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	45.5	38.3	83.8	+7.2	80%	32%

This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against

Opponent

Position

Result

Score

Points

Margin

Date

Competition

Rytas

40-40

A10/10

LKL

JL Bourg

#24

51-43

H13/10

Eurocup

Jonava

48-45

A17/10

LKL

Buducnost

#10

42-56

-14

A20/10

Eurocup

Siauliai

51-40

+11

H25/10

LKL

Basket Napoli

45-47

-2

H28/10

Eurocup

Lietkabelis

53-48

A31/10

LKL

Tofas

49-43

A03/11

Eurocup

Taurage

34-43

-9

H07/11

LKL

Slask Wroclaw

#31

38-38

H10/11

Eurocup

89.4Avg total

45.1Scored

44.3Allowed

1st half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 86.25
Last 30 (30)	44.6	42.9	87.5	+1.8	57%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	45.2	41.6	86.9	+3.6	53%	47%
Last 30 away (13)	43.8	44.5	88.3	-0.6	62%	62%
Last 10 (10)	45.1	44.3	89.4	+0.8	50%	70%
Last 5 (5)	43.8	43.8	87.6	+0.0	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	43.2	49.5	92.7	-6.3	17%	83%
vs Similar (11)	45.5	38.5	84.1	+7.0	82%	36%
vs Weaker (13)	44.5	43.5	88.0	+1.1	54%	54%

This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge

1st half winner

ZAL win

85.0%

@ 1.22+5.5pp

NEP win

15.0%

@ 5.00-5.5pp

1st half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -8 · main line

ZAL -8

56.3%

@ 1.86+6.0pp

NEP +8

43.7%

@ 1.88-6.0pp

1st half Over/Under 86.25 · main line

Over

54.8%

@ 1.82+5.1pp

Under

45.2%

@ 1.80-5.1pp

Zalgiris Kaunas 1st half total 47 · main line

Over

59.5%

@ 1.80+9.2pp

Under

40.5%

@ 1.86-9.2pp

Neptunas 1st half total 39.5 · main line

Over

48.2%

@ 2.02+0.1pp

Under

51.8%

@ 1.83-0.1pp

1st half: ZAL + total 86.5

ZAL & over

45.5%

@ 2.40+9.3pp

ZAL & under

37.4%

@ 2.45+1.8pp

1st half: Draw + total 86.5

Draw & over

1.4%

@ 34.00-1.2pp

Draw & under

1.1%

@ 36.00-1.3pp

1st half: NEP + total 86.5

NEP & over

8.0%

@ 7.50-3.6pp

NEP & under

6.7%

@ 7.50-4.9pp

1st half Over/Under 85

Over

60.7%

@ 1.69+5.5pp

Under

39.3%

@ 2.08-5.5pp

1st half Over/Under 87.5

Over

51.1%

@ 2.11+6.9pp

Under

48.9%

@ 1.78-6.9pp

1st half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -9

ZAL -9

52.2%

@ 2.03+6.3pp

NEP +9

47.8%

@ 1.72-6.3pp

1st half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -7

ZAL -7

60.6%

@ 1.82+6.2pp

NEP +7

39.4%

@ 2.04-6.2pp

1st half Over/Under 83.5

Over

65.7%

@ 1.62+7.8pp

Under

34.3%

@ 2.22-7.8pp

1st half Over/Under 89.5

Over

43.5%

@ 2.25+1.9pp

Under

56.5%

@ 1.60-1.9pp

1st half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -10

ZAL -10

47.8%

@ 2.15+4.5pp

NEP +10

52.2%

@ 1.70-4.5pp

1st half 3-way (draw possible)

ZAL

82.9%

@ 1.26+7.1pp

Draw

2.5%

@ 22.00-2.3pp

NEP

14.6%

@ 5.00-4.8pp

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	22.7	19.0	41.7	+3.8	73%	37%
Last 30 at home (15)	25.0	18.9	43.9	+6.1	80%	40%
Last 30 away (15)	20.5	19.0	39.5	+1.5	67%	33%
Last 10 (10)	23.3	17.7	41.0	+5.6	80%	50%
Last 5 (5)	20.0	16.2	36.2	+3.8	80%	20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	19.0	20.0	39.0	-1.0	0%	0%
vs Similar (4)	17.5	20.2	37.8	-2.8	50%	0%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	23.7	18.7	42.4	+5.0	80%	44%

3rd quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42
Last 30 (30)	20.7	22.0	42.7	-1.3	40%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	20.8	21.8	42.6	-0.9	35%	59%
Last 30 away (13)	20.5	22.3	42.8	-1.8	46%	46%
Last 10 (10)	20.3	24.4	44.7	-4.1	30%	60%
Last 5 (5)	18.2	24.4	42.6	-6.2	20%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	19.8	23.2	43.0	-3.3	33%	67%
vs Similar (11)	19.6	23.3	42.9	-3.6	27%	45%
vs Weaker (13)	21.9	20.4	42.3	+1.5	54%	54%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	24.4	21.3	45.7	+3.1	70%	73%
Last 30 at home (15)	23.7	22.0	45.7	+1.7	53%	67%
Last 30 away (15)	25.1	20.6	45.7	+4.5	87%	80%
Last 10 (10)	22.8	22.8	45.6	+0.0	40%	80%
Last 5 (5)	24.0	24.0	48.0	+0.0	40%	80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	28.0	29.0	57.0	-1.0	0%	100%
vs Similar (4)	24.8	20.0	44.8	+4.8	75%	75%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	24.2	21.2	45.4	+3.0	72%	72%

4th quarter	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the quarter	Over 42.5
Last 30 (30)	20.7	21.4	42.1	-0.7	50%	47%
Last 30 at home (17)	22.4	19.9	42.2	+2.5	71%	47%
Last 30 away (13)	18.5	23.5	42.0	-4.9	23%	46%
Last 10 (10)	21.4	21.2	42.6	+0.2	50%	50%
Last 5 (5)	21.0	21.6	42.6	-0.6	40%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	19.7	22.5	42.2	-2.8	17%	67%
vs Similar (11)	18.5	20.6	39.1	-2.2	55%	27%
vs Weaker (13)	23.1	21.6	44.7	+1.5	62%	54%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.75
Last 30 (30)	47.1	40.3	87.4	+6.8	80%	60%
Last 30 at home (15)	48.7	40.9	89.6	+7.7	87%	60%
Last 30 away (15)	45.5	39.6	85.1	+5.9	73%	60%
Last 10 (10)	46.1	40.5	86.6	+5.6	80%	50%
Last 5 (5)	44.0	40.2	84.2	+3.8	80%	40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)	47.0	49.0	96.0	-2.0	0%	100%
vs Similar (4)	42.2	40.2	82.5	+2.0	75%	50%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)	47.9	39.9	87.8	+8.0	84%	60%

2nd half	Scored	Allowed	Total	Margin	Won the half	Over 84.75
Last 30 (30)	41.4	43.4	84.8	-2.1	47%	53%
Last 30 at home (17)	43.2	41.6	84.8	+1.5	59%	65%
Last 30 away (13)	39.0	45.8	84.8	-6.8	31%	38%
Last 10 (10)	41.7	45.6	87.3	-3.9	30%	60%
Last 5 (5)	39.2	46.0	85.2	-6.8	40%	60%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)	39.5	45.7	85.2	-6.2	33%	50%
vs Similar (11)	38.1	43.9	82.0	-5.8	36%	36%
vs Weaker (13)	45.0	42.0	87.0	+3.0	62%	69%

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.

ZAL win + total 171.5

🔒 Pro

NEP win + total 171.5

🔒 Pro

Overtime

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: ZAL leads at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: level at half

🔒 Pro

Half-time / full-time: NEP leads at half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 1st half

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring quarter: 2nd half

🔒 Pro

Team with the highest-scoring quarter

🔒 Pro

Highest-scoring half

🔒 Pro

Double chance (regulation)

🔒 Pro

Quarters won (ZAL:NEP): ZAL wins more

🔒 Pro

🔒 12 special markets for this game with Pythia's probabilities and edges: Upgrade to Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.

Min odds PRO1.20

Edge PRO

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge
Zalgiris Kaunas -7.5	82.3%	1.37	Betano 1.37	-	-	-	-	+15.4pp
2nd half: Zalgiris Kaunas over 42.5	78.4%	1.37	1xBet 1.37	-	-	-	-	+14.2pp
2nd half: Zalgiris Kaunas win	83.9%	1.34	Betano 1.34	-	-	-	-	+14.1pp
HT/FT 1/1	80.3%	1.26	Bet365 1.30	Betano 1.22	-	-	-	+13.4pp
Over 163.5	77.1%	1.42	Betano 1.42	-	-	-	-	+12.4pp
■■■■■■ ■■■	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%
■■■■■■ ■■■	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%	■■%

🔒 208 more picks for this game · Unlock all Best Picks & everything else with Pro

Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:

Zalgiris Kaunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zalgiris Kaunas: 88.0 points a game scored

🏀🏀45%

🏀🏀🏀37%

🏀18%

🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 45% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 37% of the points

🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 18% of the points

League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game

51%

30%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.3	19.8	56.1%	55.6%	39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	24.9	10.8	43.4%	35.3%	32.4
🏀 Free throws	21.4	16.0	74.8%	70.8%	16.0

They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 85.8 points a game scored

🏀🏀49%

🏀🏀🏀27%

🏀24%

🏀🏀 2-pointers42.2 pts a game · 49% of the points

🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.4 pts a game · 27% of the points

🏀 Free throws20.2 pts a game · 24% of the points

League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game

51%

30%

19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	39.5	21.1	53.4%	55.6%	42.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	23.8	7.8	32.8%	35.3%	23.4
🏀 Free throws	24.6	20.2	82.1%	70.8%	20.2

They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.8	21.8	53.4%	55.6%	43.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	22.6	7.7	34.1%	35.3%	23.1
🏀 Free throws	16.6	12.0	72.3%	70.8%	12.0

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	40.3	23.1	57.3%	55.6%	46.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.2	9.3	36.9%	35.3%	27.9
🏀 Free throws	18.6	13.2	71.0%	70.8%	13.2

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	35.4	21.0	59.4%	55.6%	42.1
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.8	10.6	41.0%	35.3%	31.7
🏀 Free throws	20.5	15.2	74.1%	70.8%	15.2

Shot type	Attempts per game	Made per game	Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	36.8	20.1	54.8%	55.6%	40.3
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.4	9.0	35.4%	35.3%	27.0
🏀 Free throws	25.4	19.5	76.9%	70.8%	19.5

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	41.9	22.3	53.2%	55.6%	44.5
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	21.9	7.3	33.2%	35.3%	21.8
🏀 Free throws	15.9	11.6	73.0%	70.8%	11.6

Shot type	Opponents' Attempts per game	Opponents' Made per game	Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)	League accuracy	Points per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers	37.2	20.8	55.9%	55.6%	41.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers	25.9	9.3	36.0%	35.3%	28.0
🏀 Free throws	22.5	16.7	74.1%	70.8%	16.7

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.

Zalgiris Kaunas

WWWWWWWWWL

Neptunas

WWLLLWLWWL

League position

+11.2

Net rating

-1.7

106.4

Offensive rating

98.4

95.2

Defensive rating

100.1

59.8%

Effective FG%

51.8%

52.6%

Opp. effective FG%

56.6%

16.4%

Turnover %

15.6%

0.36

Free-throw rate

0.39

43.4%

3-point %

32.8%

69.0%

Assist %

64.0%

90%

Form (last 10/10)

50%

Profile

■ Zalgiris Kaunas ■ Neptunas

The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record

Zalgiris Kaunas wins

Neptunas wins

Date	Game	Score
20/09/26	Neptunas v Zalgiris Kaunas	69-93
13/05/26	Neptunas v Zalgiris Kaunas	90-93
21/02/26	Zalgiris Kaunas v Neptunas	119-81
08/02/26	Zalgiris Kaunas v Neptunas	87-76
04/01/26	Zalgiris Kaunas v Neptunas	112-77
27/09/25	Neptunas v Zalgiris Kaunas	71-84
26/05/25	Neptunas v Zalgiris Kaunas	70-98
24/05/25	Zalgiris Kaunas v Neptunas	88-75
07/05/25	Zalgiris Kaunas v Neptunas	84-49
30/03/25	Neptunas v Zalgiris Kaunas	67-80

Zalgiris Kaunaslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
12/11/26	A	Olimpia Milano	86-83
08/11/26	A	Juventus	94-85
06/11/26	A	Besiktas	83-67
02/11/26	A	Rytas	94-89
30/10/26	H	Partizan	87-80
28/10/26	A	Virtus Bologna	91-74
25/10/26	H	Jonava	86-63
23/10/26	H	Lyon-Villeurbanne	105-85
18/10/26	H	Taurage	96-76
16/10/26	H	Anadolu Efes	70-85

Neptunaslast 10

Date	H/A	Opponent	Score
10/11/26	H	Slask Wroclaw	90-82
07/11/26	H	Taurage	82-80
03/11/26	A	Tofas	79-94
31/10/26	A	Lietkabelis	79-99
28/10/26	H	Basket Napoli	85-94
25/10/26	H	Siauliai	110-88
20/10/26	A	Buducnost	89-104
17/10/26	A	Jonava	84-83
13/10/26	H	JL Bourg	93-89
10/10/26	A	Rytas	77-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Zalgiris Kaunas

LKL 2026-27

Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	WWWWW	100%
Home	WWWW	100%
Away	WWWWW	100%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	4	5
Win %	100%	100%	100%
Points / game	93.2	95.0	91.8
Allowed / game	76.1	72.2	79.2
Point differential	+17.1	+22.8	+12.6
Avg total	169.3	167.2	171.0
Over 171.5	56%	50%	60%
Win by 10+	67%	100%	40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	-	100% (2)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

Neptunas

LKL 2026-27

Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)

Form	Last 5	Win %
Overall	LWWLW	56%
Home	LWWWW	80%
Away	LLWL	25%

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Games	9	5	4
Win %	56%	80%	25%
Points / game	85.2	89.8	79.5
Allowed / game	84.7	81.4	88.8
Point differential	+0.6	+8.4	-9.2
Avg total	169.9	171.2	168.2
Over 171.5	33%	40%	25%
Win by 10+	33%	60%	0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won	100% (2)	100% (1)	100% (1)
Overtime %	0%	0%	0%

This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#	Team	GP	W	L	Win %	PF/g	PA/g	Diff
1	Zalgiris Kaunas	9	9	0	100%	93.2	76.1	+17.1
2	Rytas	8	5	3	62%	89.6	85.4	+4.2
3	Gargzdai	10	6	4	60%	88.3	87.3	+1.0
4	Lietkabelis	10	6	4	60%	79.7	80.3	-0.6
5	Neptunas	9	5	4	56%	85.2	84.7	+0.6
6	Siauliai	10	5	5	50%	84.6	85.6	-1.0
7	Jonava	9	3	6	33%	78.4	82.0	-3.6
8	Juventus	10	3	7	30%	85.5	88.3	-2.8
9	Taurage	10	3	7	30%	80.4	86.5	-6.1
10	Nevezis	9	2	7	22%	75.8	83.1	-7.3

Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

← all games of the day

Zalgiris Kaunas vs Neptunas Prediction & Stats

🎯 1. Model Analysis

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Total points distribution

📊 3. Team Totals

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

Get it on Telegram

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

Where their opponents' points come from

Shooting by shot type

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Profile

🤝 10. Games History

📊 11. Overall Statistics

🏆 12. League Table

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

A Pro feature