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Pato vs Sao Paulo Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 17 Oct 2024
Tip-off: 22:30
Final 81-88
30-23 16-22 25-19 10-24
Position#14
Record1-1
FormWLLLW
Points / game78.0
Allowed / game77.0
vs
Position#13
Record-
FormLWWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
BrazilNBB· Ginasio do Sesi
Other2024-25
Meetings · Pato v Sao Paulo
17 Oct 2024
PATO81
SAO 88
07 Feb 2024
PATO74
SAO 80
14 Jan 2023
PATO69
SAO 84
23 Mar 2022
PATO62
SAO 82
05 Dec 2020
PATO71
SAO 80
03 Feb 2020
PATO86
SAO 106
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pato winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Sao Paulo winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PatoBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPato
Date
Competition
Mogi
#14
W
100-73
100
73
+27
96avg 70
H25/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
100-87
100
87
+13
93avg 70
H28/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
83-79
83
79
+4
72avg 70
H30/03
NBB
Minas
#3
L
69-77
69
77
-8
57avg 70
H05/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
77-75
77
75
+2
70avg 70
A10/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
85-68
85
68
+17
89avg 70
A12/04
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
74-93
74
93
-19
66avg 70
H21/04
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
62-71
62
71
-9
56avg 70
A27/04
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
67-68
67
68
-1
60avg 70
A12/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
W
89-86
89
86
+3
89avg 70
A14/10
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-14
27-13
21-27
27-19
30-14
27-22
22-25
21-26
26-24
19-15
18-18
20-22
22-18
11-24
23-15
13-20
15-22
28-20
19-16
15-17
16-17
30-13
23-14
16-24
23-21
20-18
18-26
13-28
19-19
12-20
18-19
13-13
23-24
12-16
15-15
17-13
22-25
25-16
19-22
23-23
158.3Avg total
80.6Scored
77.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)78.077.0155.0+1.050%
Season at homeno games
Season away (2)78.077.0155.0+1.050%
Last 10 (10)80.677.7158.3+2.960%
Last 5 (5)75.477.2152.6-1.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)75.681.6157.2-6.030%
vs Similar ◀ (13)77.282.5159.6-5.323%
vs Weaker (7)84.772.0156.7+12.7100%
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloBrazilLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPaulo
Date
Competition
Mogi
#14
L
79-81
79
81
-2
74avg 74
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
63-72
63
72
-9
60avg 74
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
99-93
99
93
+6
99avg 74
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
104-107 OT
104
107
-3
93avg 74
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
88-82
88
82
+6
84avg 74
A25/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
59-84
59
84
-25
53avg 74
A03/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
105-74
105
74
+31
104avg 74
H06/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
86-84
86
84
+2
84avg 74
H08/05
NBB
Minas
#3
L
79-104
79
104
-25
72avg 74
A11/05
NBB
Minas
#3
L
67-98
67
98
-31
54avg 74
A13/05
NBB
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-19
20-16
13-24
24-22
17-23
15-19
18-15
13-15
35-17
20-24
23-27
21-25
24-21
20-26
14-20
30-21
23-28
31-12
20-24
14-18
18-25
13-17
11-25
17-17
29-15
23-22
28-19
25-18
19-16
14-25
29-26
24-17
14-32
18-22
24-21
23-29
13-22
18-22
17-28
19-26
170.8Avg total
82.9Scored
87.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)82.987.9170.8-5.040%
Last 5 (5)79.288.8168.0-9.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)86.589.5176.0-2.953%
vs Similar ◀ (10)80.878.0158.8+2.860%
vs Weaker (5)79.275.0154.2+4.260%
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: +0.2+0.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: -1.3-1.3Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: -2.7-2.7Q4: +0.2+0.2
PatoSao Paulo
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PatoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mogi
#14
W
52-27
52
27
+25
H25/03
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#9
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H28/03
NBB
Pinheiros
#13
W
45-39
45
39
+6
H30/03
NBB
Minas
#3
L
33-42
33
42
-9
H05/04
NBB
Uniao Corinthians
#16
W
43-42
43
42
+1
A10/04
NBB
Caxias do Sul
#18
W
46-30
46
30
+16
A12/04
NBB
Bauru
#5
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H21/04
NBB
Bauru
#5
L
31-39
31
39
-8
A27/04
NBB
Pinheiros
#5
L
35-40
35
40
-5
A12/10
NBB
Corinthians Paulista
#8
W
47-41
47
41
+6
A14/10
NBB
80.7Avg total
43.2Scored
37.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.239.378.6-0.150%-
Last 30 at home (15)40.438.178.5+2.360%-
Last 30 away (15)38.140.678.7-2.540%-
Last 10 (10)43.237.580.7+5.770%-
Last 5 (5)40.437.878.2+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)37.942.180.0-4.240%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)37.539.677.1-2.231%-
vs Weaker (7)44.434.979.3+9.6100%-
This opponent (Sao Paulo) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Sao PauloLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Mogi
#14
W
42-35
42
35
+7
A07/04
NBB
Sao Jose
#10
L
32-42
32
42
-10
A09/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
55-41
55
41
+14
H19/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
L
44-47
44
47
-3
A23/04
NBB
Unifacisa
#6
W
54-40
54
40
+14
A25/04
NBB
Minas
#3
L
31-42
31
42
-11
A03/05
NBB
Minas
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H06/05
NBB
Minas
#3
L
33-41
33
41
-8
H08/05
NBB
Minas
#3
L
32-54
32
54
-22
A11/05
NBB
Minas
#3
L
31-44
31
44
-13
A13/05
NBB
82.9Avg total
40.6Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.840.782.5+1.150%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.438.282.6+6.264%-
Last 30 away (16)39.542.982.4-3.438%-
Last 10 (10)40.642.382.9-1.740%-
Last 5 (5)35.843.679.4-7.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)43.142.986.0+0.347%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)40.039.279.2+0.850%-
vs Weaker (5)41.437.278.6+4.260%-
This opponent (Pato) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Patotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pato: 79.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.8 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.619.4
53.0%
50.9%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.99.6
37.1%
33.0%28.8
🏀 Free throws16.111.4
70.8%
72.7%11.4
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sao Paulotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sao Paulo: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.8 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.7 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 77.4 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.818.9
57.6%
50.9%37.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.210.2
37.5%
33.0%30.6
🏀 Free throws17.713.7
77.4%
72.7%13.7
They take 60.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 44%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Oct 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pato
WLLLWWLWWW
Sao Paulo
LLWWLWLWLL
#14
League position
#13
+3.8
Net rating
-7.8
110.5
Offensive rating
110.8
106.7
Defensive rating
118.6
54.1%
Effective FG%
57.0%
50.8%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
16.8%
Turnover %
16.8%
28.6%
Off. rebound %
20.1%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.29
37.1%
3-point %
37.5%
56.9%
Assist %
59.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence110.5 · 110.8Defence106.7 · 118.6Shooting54.1% · 57.0%3-point %37.1% · 37.5%Ball care16.8% · 16.8%Off. rebounds28.6% · 20.1%Free throws0.26 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Pato   ■ Sao Paulo
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Pato wins
9
Sao Paulo wins
DateGameScore
07/02/24Pato v Sao Paulo74-80
20/11/23Sao Paulo v Pato89-67
14/01/23Pato v Sao Paulo69-84
28/10/22Sao Paulo v Pato99-90 OT
23/03/22Pato v Sao Paulo62-82
12/01/22Sao Paulo v Pato86-77
01/03/21Sao Paulo v Pato84-85
05/12/20Pato v Sao Paulo71-80
03/02/20Pato v Sao Paulo86-106
29/12/19Sao Paulo v Pato87-63
Patolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/10/24ACorinthians Paulista89-86
12/10/24APinheiros67-68
27/04/24ABauru62-71
21/04/24HBauru74-93
12/04/24ACaxias do Sul85-68
10/04/24AUniao Corinthians77-75
05/04/24HMinas69-77
30/03/24HPinheiros83-79
28/03/24HCorinthians Paulista100-87
25/03/24HMogi100-73
Sao Paulolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/05/24AMinas67-98
11/05/24AMinas79-104
08/05/24HMinas86-84
06/05/24HMinas105-74
03/05/24AMinas59-84
25/04/24AUnifacisa88-82
23/04/24AUnifacisa104-107 OT
19/04/24HUnifacisa99-93
09/04/24ASao Jose63-72
07/04/24AMogi79-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pato
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
Home--
AwayLW50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games2-2
Win %50%-50%
Points / game78.0-78.0
Allowed / game77.0-77.0
Point differential+1.0-+1.0
Avg total155.0-155.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%-0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)-50% (2)
Overtime %0%-0%
Sao Paulo
NBB 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Unifacisa110100%83.071.0+12.0
2 Flamengo110100%59.050.0+9.0
3 Cearense110100%76.068.0+8.0
4 Botafogo220100%76.570.0+6.5
5 Franca110100%82.076.0+6.0
6 Bauru110100%93.091.0+2.0
7 Paulistano21150%73.567.0+6.5
8 Mogi21150%71.069.5+1.5
9 Minas21150%75.074.0+1.0
10 Pato21150%78.077.0+1.0
11 Vasco21150%59.059.0+0.0
12 Pinheiros21150%65.073.5-8.5
13 Corinthians Paulista1010%86.089.0-3.0
14 Brasilia2020%78.583.5-5.0
15 Caxias do Sul1010%68.076.0-8.0
16 Sao Jose2020%64.574.5-10.0
17 Uniao Corinthians1010%71.083.0-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pato3016251081
Sao Paulo2322192488
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