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Sydney vs Melbourne United Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 08 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 08:30
Final 93-107
25-29 27-21 19-31 22-26
Position#1
Record1-1
FormLLLLW
Points / game85.5
Allowed / game76.0
vs
Position#4
Record3-0
FormLLWWW
Points / game101.7
Allowed / game83.0
AustraliaNBLRound 4· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Sydney v Melbourne United
10 Jan 2027
SYDN v MELB
upcoming
29 Dec 2026
SYDN v MELB
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
SYDN97
MELB94
08 Oct 2025
SYDN93
MELB107
09 Jan 2025
SYDN88
MELB90
28 Jan 2024
SYDN98
MELB86
04 Jan 2024
SYDN85
MELB101
25 Dec 2022
SYDN101
MELB80
26 Dec 2021
SYDN68
MELB82
05 Dec 2021
SYDN79
MELB74
29 May 2021
SYDN100
MELB98
19 Mar 2021
SYDN103
MELB75
05 Mar 2020
SYDN89
MELB87
29 Feb 2020
SYDN86
MELB80
26 Jan 2020
SYDN106
MELB88
01 Dec 2019
SYDN111
MELB101
03 Mar 2019
SYDN76
MELB90
08 Feb 2019
SYDN97
MELB85
23 Dec 2018
SYDN70
MELB75
28 Jan 2018
SYDN76
MELB93
30 Dec 2017
SYDN79
MELB103
04 Feb 2017
SYDN76
MELB89
11 Dec 2016
SYDN81
MELB88
30 Dec 2015
SYDN90
MELB100
05 Nov 2015
SYDN94
MELB105
20 Feb 2015
SYDN88
MELB91
02 Jan 2015
SYDN68
MELB82
19 Jan 2014
SYDN97
MELB84
13 Oct 2013
SYDN73
MELB69
18 Jan 2013
SYDN74
MELB77
12 Oct 2012
SYDN85
MELB82
02 Mar 2012
SYDN61
MELB66
04 Nov 2011
SYDN76
MELB94
06 Mar 2011
SYDN95
MELB86
23 Dec 2010
SYDN73
MELB82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#2
L
88-90
88
90
-2
78avg 81
H09/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
91-87
91
87
+4
80avg 81
H12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
88-77
88
77
+11
73avg 81
H19/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
103-92
103
92
+11
103avg 81
A22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
96-105
96
105
-9
82avg 81
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#3
L
97-104
97
104
-7
97avg 81
H02/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
75-95
75
95
-20
62avg 81
A07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
88-95
88
95
-7
82avg 81
H13/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
L
74-77
74
77
-3
55avg 81
H28/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
97-75
97
75
+22
88avg 81
H04/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-32
25-25
23-13
24-20
17-19
22-19
25-24
27-25
16-15
22-19
18-21
32-22
26-22
36-23
17-23
24-24
23-34
32-18
18-26
23-27
21-32
27-24
26-29
23-19
24-29
15-21
22-15
14-30
22-23
19-28
30-18
17-26
18-22
27-18
13-21
16-16
22-15
17-19
31-18
27-23
179.4Avg total
89.7Scored
89.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)85.576.0161.5+9.550%
Season at home (2)85.576.0161.5+9.550%
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)89.789.7179.4+0.040%
Last 5 (5)86.289.2175.4-3.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)87.897.0184.8-9.20%
vs Similar (8)92.191.4183.5+0.838%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)89.583.6173.1+5.967%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Perth
#3
L
89-96
89
96
-7
78avg 90
A01/03
NBL
Perth
#3
W
113-112
113
112
+1
108avg 90
H04/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
96-88
96
88
+8
92avg 90
A08/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
100-102
100
102
-2
101avg 90
H12/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
83-77
83
77
+6
71avg 90
A16/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
71-80
71
80
-9
55avg 90
H19/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
104-114
104
114
-10
90avg 90
A23/03
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
88-84
88
84
+4
no box
A18/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
114-82
114
82
+32
no box
H21/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
103-83
103
83
+20
103avg 90
H25/09
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-21
19-20
19-22
15-33
26-37
32-25
29-22
26-28
26-29
17-24
21-14
32-21
29-29
20-22
22-31
29-20
17-22
24-20
19-25
23-10
12-15
20-13
16-23
23-29
26-26
24-34
22-22
32-32
23-22
24-24
17-18
24-20
34-15
21-18
34-22
25-27
29-24
23-22
23-24
28-13
187.9Avg total
96.1Scored
91.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (3)101.783.0184.7+18.7100%
Season at home (2)108.582.5191.0+26.0100%
Season away (1)88.084.0172.0+4.0100%
Last 10 (10)96.191.8187.9+4.360%
Last 5 (5)96.088.6184.6+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)91.797.7189.4-6.029%
vs Similar (10)100.696.2196.8+4.480%
vs Weaker (13)97.992.2190.2+5.769%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.8-3.8Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +2.4+2.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -3.8-3.8Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: +2.8+2.8Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -0.1-0.1Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +2.4+2.4
SydneyMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Melbourne United
#2
L
41-57
41
57
-16
H09/01
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#10
W
39-38
39
38
+1
H12/01
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#7
W
38-34
38
34
+4
H19/01
NBL
South East Melbourne
#5
W
62-45
62
45
+17
A22/01
NBL
Adelaide
#6
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H24/01
NBL
Perth
#3
L
48-56
48
56
-8
H02/02
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
39-50
39
50
-11
A07/02
NBL
Adelaide
#6
L
41-51
41
51
-10
H13/02
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#9
W
45-40
45
40
+5
H28/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
39-34
39
34
+5
H04/10
NBL
90.4Avg total
44.7Scored
45.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.446.590.8-2.137%-
Last 30 at home (17)44.747.191.8-2.441%-
Last 30 away (13)43.945.689.5-1.731%-
Last 10 (10)44.745.790.4-1.060%-
Last 5 (5)42.446.288.6-3.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)44.850.094.8-5.20%-
vs Similar (8)45.850.896.5-5.025%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)43.743.887.4-0.150%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Perth
#3
W
55-41
55
41
+14
A01/03
NBL
Perth
#3
L
58-62
58
62
-4
H04/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A08/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H12/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
41-42
41
42
-1
A16/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
W
32-28
32
28
+4
H19/03
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#1
L
50-60
50
60
-10
A23/03
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#6
W
47-46
47
46
+1
A18/09
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#7
W
55-33
55
33
+22
H21/09
NBL
South East Melbourne
#2
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H25/09
NBL
94.4Avg total
48.2Scored
46.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.448.197.5+1.350%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.950.3100.2-0.340%-
Last 30 away (15)48.845.994.7+2.960%-
Last 10 (10)48.246.294.4+2.050%-
Last 5 (5)47.242.689.8+4.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)44.048.392.3-4.329%-
vs Similar (10)53.850.2104.0+3.660%-
vs Weaker (13)48.846.495.2+2.554%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 88.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.222.1
55.0%
54.6%44.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.08.8
31.4%
33.3%26.4
🏀 Free throws23.618.3
77.5%
74.8%18.3
They take 68.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 86.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀45%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.4 pts a game · 45% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 89.9 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.319.2
52.9%
54.6%38.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.111.5
39.5%
33.3%34.5
🏀 Free throws19.813.1
66.2%
74.8%13.1
They take 65.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 41%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WLLLLLWWWL
Melbourne United
WWWLLWLWWL
#1
League position
#4
+0.3
Net rating
+0.5
114.5
Offensive rating
116.9
114.2
Defensive rating
116.4
51.8%
Effective FG%
55.7%
51.0%
Opp. effective FG%
50.9%
13.4%
Turnover %
11.7%
28.9%
Off. rebound %
25.6%
0.35
Free-throw rate
0.30
31.4%
3-point %
39.5%
53.1%
Assist %
62.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence114.5 · 116.9Defence114.2 · 116.4Shooting51.8% · 55.7%3-point %31.4% · 39.5%Ball care13.4% · 11.7%Off. rebounds28.9% · 25.6%Free throws0.35 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Sydney   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Sydney wins
6
Melbourne United wins
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/10/25HNew Zealand Breakers97-75
28/09/25HCairns Taipans74-77
13/02/25HAdelaide88-95
07/02/25AIllawarra Hawks75-95
02/02/25HPerth97-104
24/01/25HAdelaide96-105
22/01/25ASouth East Melbourne103-92
19/01/25HTasmania JackJumpers88-77
12/01/25HCairns Taipans91-87
09/01/25HMelbourne United88-90
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/09/25HSouth East Melbourne103-83
21/09/25HNew Zealand Breakers114-82
18/09/25ATasmania JackJumpers88-84
23/03/25AIllawarra Hawks104-114
19/03/25HIllawarra Hawks71-80
16/03/25AIllawarra Hawks83-77
12/03/25HIllawarra Hawks100-102
08/03/25AIllawarra Hawks96-88
04/03/25HPerth113-112
01/03/25APerth89-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLW50%
HomeLW50%
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games22-
Win %50%50%-
Points / game85.585.5-
Allowed / game76.076.0-
Point differential+9.5+9.5-
Avg total161.5161.5-
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%-
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%-
Melbourne United
NBL 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games321
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game101.7108.588.0
Allowed / game83.082.584.0
Point differential+18.7+26.0+4.0
Avg total184.7191.0172.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%100%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Adelaide220100%98.579.5+19.0
2 Melbourne United330100%101.783.0+18.7
3 Tasmania JackJumpers43175%83.582.0+1.5
4 Perth32167%84.379.0+5.3
5 Sydney21150%85.576.0+9.5
6 South East Melbourne21150%98.590.0+8.5
7 Cairns Taipans42250%79.095.0-16.0
8 Brisbane Bullets41325%87.087.2-0.2
9 New Zealand Breakers51420%89.498.4-9.0
10 Illawarra Hawks3030%86.0100.0-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Sydney2527192293
Melbourne United29213126107
← all games of the day
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