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Sydney vs Melbourne United Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 29 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Scheduled
Position#1
Record9-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game98.6
Allowed / game89.7
Sydney
Australia
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.8/10
Around normal
5.2/10
Around normal
Melbourne United
Australia
Position#3
Record8-6
FormWWWLW
Points / game98.3
Allowed / game91.9
AustraliaNBLRound 14· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Sydney v Melbourne United
10 Jan 2027
SYDN v MELB
upcoming
29 Dec 2026
SYDN v MELB
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
SYDN97
MELB94
08 Oct 2025
SYDN93
MELB107
09 Jan 2025
SYDN88
MELB90
28 Jan 2024
SYDN98
MELB86
04 Jan 2024
SYDN85
MELB101
25 Dec 2022
SYDN101
MELB80
26 Dec 2021
SYDN68
MELB82
05 Dec 2021
SYDN79
MELB74
29 May 2021
SYDN100
MELB98
19 Mar 2021
SYDN103
MELB75
05 Mar 2020
SYDN89
MELB87
29 Feb 2020
SYDN86
MELB80
26 Jan 2020
SYDN106
MELB88
01 Dec 2019
SYDN111
MELB101
03 Mar 2019
SYDN76
MELB90
08 Feb 2019
SYDN97
MELB85
23 Dec 2018
SYDN70
MELB75
28 Jan 2018
SYDN76
MELB93
30 Dec 2017
SYDN79
MELB103
04 Feb 2017
SYDN76
MELB89
11 Dec 2016
SYDN81
MELB88
30 Dec 2015
SYDN90
MELB100
05 Nov 2015
SYDN94
MELB105
20 Feb 2015
SYDN88
MELB91
02 Jan 2015
SYDN68
MELB82
19 Jan 2014
SYDN97
MELB84
13 Oct 2013
SYDN73
MELB69
18 Jan 2013
SYDN74
MELB77
12 Oct 2012
SYDN85
MELB82
02 Mar 2012
SYDN61
MELB66
04 Nov 2011
SYDN76
MELB94
06 Mar 2011
SYDN95
MELB86
23 Dec 2010
SYDN73
MELB82
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Melbourne United win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
L
78-84
78
84
-6
75avg 98
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
101-102
101
102
-1
92avg 98
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
102-81
102
81
+21
96avg 98
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
108-82
108
82
+26
109avg 98
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
95-105
95
105
-10
96avg 98
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
99-91
99
91
+8
100avg 98
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
71-68
71
68
+3
57avg 98
A30/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
110-99
110
99
+11
no box
H08/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
82-84
82
84
-2
no box
A13/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
111-102 OT
111
102
+9
no box
H15/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
26-23
12-20
22-23
29-31
32-20
12-24
28-27
31-21
21-22
24-20
26-18
20-19
28-17
34-16
26-30
31-32
20-24
13-21
31-28
33-17
26-25
21-28
19-21
19-19
18-12
13-24
21-13
28-38
26-13
29-19
27-29
29-12
24-20
14-31
15-21
21-20
24-25
20-19
22-23
185.5Avg total
95.7Scored
89.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)98.689.7188.3+8.969%
Season at home (8)103.492.0195.4+11.475%
Season away (5)91.086.0177.0+5.060%
Last 10 (10)95.789.8185.5+5.960%
Last 5 (5)94.688.8183.4+5.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (1)95.0105.0200.0-10.00%
vs Weaker (29)102.689.4192.0+13.283%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
96-91
96
91
+5
93avg 81
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
104-99
104
99
+5
102avg 81
A10/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
89-91
89
91
-2
81avg 81
H18/10
NBL
Perth
#6
L
102-103
102
103
-1
96avg 81
A23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
105-95
105
95
+10
93avg 81
H25/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
113-97
113
97
+16
109avg 81
A31/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
94-74
94
74
+20
no box
H02/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
W
120-92
120
92
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
93-101
93
101
-8
no box
A12/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
102-95
102
95
+7
no box
H14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-21
25-17
20-21
20-32
17-30
28-23
29-21
30-25
27-21
16-35
22-22
24-13
26-25
22-21
31-31
23-26
32-31
24-20
21-13
28-31
26-33
25-21
34-19
28-24
28-19
15-20
27-16
24-19
29-17
33-31
21-25
37-19
10-27
25-32
27-21
31-21
30-22
34-17
23-29
15-27
195.6Avg total
101.8Scored
93.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)98.391.9190.2+6.457%
Season at home (7)100.093.0193.0+7.057%
Season away (7)96.690.9187.4+5.757%
Last 10 (10)101.893.8195.6+8.070%
Last 5 (5)104.491.8196.2+12.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.097.0191.0-3.00%
vs Similar ◀ (6)84.887.5172.3-2.750%
vs Weaker (23)93.688.3181.9+5.257%
This opponent (Sydney) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +2.3+2.3
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: +4.4+4.4Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +2.3+2.3
SydneyMelbourne United
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
52-43
52
43
+9
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
59-42
59
42
+17
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A30/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
54-51
54
51
+3
H08/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
53-32
53
32
+21
A13/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H15/11
NBL
93.2Avg total
50.4Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.945.798.6+7.277%-
Last 30 at home (18)54.245.8100.0+8.383%-
Last 30 away (12)51.045.596.5+5.567%-
Last 10 (10)50.442.893.2+7.680%-
Last 5 (5)49.640.289.8+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (1)51.056.0107.0-5.00%-
vs Weaker (29)53.045.398.3+7.679%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
56-38
56
38
+18
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A10/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
43-56
43
56
-13
H18/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H25/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
51-54
51
54
-3
A31/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H02/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
W
62-48
62
48
+14
H07/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
35-59
35
59
-24
A12/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
64-39
64
39
+25
H14/11
NBL
98.6Avg total
50.3Scored
48.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.845.492.2+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.143.891.9+4.262%-
Last 30 away (14)45.447.292.6-1.836%-
Last 10 (10)50.348.398.6+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)51.047.898.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)48.056.0104.0-8.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (6)45.545.090.5+0.550%-
vs Weaker (23)47.145.092.2+2.152%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 97.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.125.5
57.8%
56.4%51.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.2
35.4%
34.2%30.6
🏀 Free throws20.515.7
76.6%
74.0%15.7
They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 96.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.026.1
56.7%
56.4%52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.3
32.3%
34.2%24.9
🏀 Free throws26.219.6
74.8%
74.0%19.6
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WLWWWLWWLL
Melbourne United
WLWWWWLLWW
#1
League position
#3
+9.9
Net rating
+4.9
105.0
Offensive rating
100.1
95.0
Defensive rating
95.2
56.0%
Effective FG%
53.8%
51.0%
Opp. effective FG%
50.7%
11.6%
Turnover %
13.3%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.37
35.4%
3-point %
32.3%
58.0%
Assist %
55.8%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence105.0 · 100.1Defence95.0 · 95.2Shooting56.0% · 53.8%3-point %35.4% · 32.3%Ball care11.6% · 13.3%Free throws0.28 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Sydney   ■ Melbourne United
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Sydney wins
6
Melbourne United wins
DateGameScore
25/10/26Melbourne United v Sydney105-95
11/01/26Sydney v Melbourne United97-94
14/12/25Melbourne United v Sydney86-92 OT
03/11/25Melbourne United v Sydney92-95
08/10/25Sydney v Melbourne United93-107
09/01/25Sydney v Melbourne United88-90
01/12/24Melbourne United v Sydney101-98
31/10/24Melbourne United v Sydney87-83
28/01/24Sydney v Melbourne United98-86
04/01/24Sydney v Melbourne United85-101
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HNew Zealand Breakers111-102 OT
13/11/26ACairns Taipans82-84
08/11/26HSouth East Melbourne110-99
30/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers71-68
28/10/26APerth99-91
25/10/26AMelbourne United95-105
22/10/26AIllawarra Hawks108-82
17/10/26HPerth102-81
14/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers101-102
11/10/26HAdelaide78-84
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouth East Melbourne102-95
12/11/26AAdelaide93-101
07/11/26HBrisbane Bullets120-92
02/11/26HNew Zealand Breakers94-74
31/10/26ACairns Taipans113-97
25/10/26HSydney105-95
23/10/26APerth102-103
18/10/26HIllawarra Hawks89-91
10/10/26ASouth East Melbourne104-99
07/10/26AAdelaide96-91

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW69%
HomeLLWWW75%
AwayWLWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %69%75%60%
Points / game98.6103.491.0
Allowed / game89.792.086.0
Point differential+8.9+11.4+5.0
Avg total188.3195.4177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %8%12%0%
Melbourne United
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW57%
HomeLWWWW57%
AwayWWLWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %57%57%57%
Points / game98.3100.096.6
Allowed / game91.993.090.9
Point differential+6.4+7.0+5.7
Avg total190.2193.0187.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%43%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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