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Trieste vs Varese Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 24 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#7
Record4-3
FormLWWWW
Points / game94.4
Allowed / game88.4
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.8/10
Above normal
6.4/10
Above normal
Position#6
Record5-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game87.1
ItalyLega ARound 17· PalaTrieste
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Trieste v Varese
24 Jan 2027
TRI v VAR
upcoming
04 Apr 2026
TRI90
VAR89
03 Nov 2024
TRI107
VAR81
16 Apr 2023
TRI80
VAR83
14 Nov 2021
TRI70
VAR86
27 Jan 2021
TRI108
VAR83
29 Sep 2019
TRI62
VAR92
10 Feb 2019
TRI96
VAR104
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Trieste win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TriesteItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrieste
Date
Competition
Brescia
#4
L
80-84
80
84
-4
73avg 76
H21/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
W
83-77
83
77
+6
79avg 76
H23/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
75-90
75
90
-15
67avg 76
A25/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
79-83
79
83
-4
64avg 76
A27/09
Lega A
Venezia
#9
L
82-87
82
87
-5
57avg 76
H04/10
Lega A
Varese
#6
L
84-85
84
85
-1
75avg 76
A10/10
Lega A
Cantu
#16
W
92-72
92
72
+20
88avg 76
H18/10
Lega A
Verona
#10
W
108-99
108
99
+9
101avg 76
H25/10
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
100-93
100
93
+7
no box
A02/11
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
116-100
116
100
+16
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-22
21-22
15-17
26-23
17-16
18-22
28-18
20-21
16-27
23-20
12-20
24-23
19-17
22-21
23-19
15-26
15-21
27-18
20-20
20-28
15-19
23-21
20-21
26-24
20-18
24-20
23-15
25-19
23-27
28-26
28-24
29-22
25-24
21-31
31-17
23-21
28-32
30-24
34-26
24-18
176.9Avg total
89.9Scored
87.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)94.488.4182.9+6.057%
Season at home (4)99.589.5189.0+10.075%
Season away (3)87.787.0174.7+0.733%
Last 10 (10)89.987.0176.9+2.950%
Last 5 (5)100.089.8189.8+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)81.788.7170.3-7.027%
vs Similar ◀ (11)86.084.5170.5+1.545%
vs Weaker (4)99.589.5189.0+10.075%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 77
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 77
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
82-85
82
85
-3
80avg 77
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
85-87
85
87
-2
72avg 77
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
106avg 77
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
92avg 77
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
90avg 77
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
L
81-84
81
84
-3
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
96-101
96
101
-5
no box
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
99-84
99
84
+15
no box
A14/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
25-23
25-21
23-27
26-17
26-14
23-26
14-27
18-17
20-28
27-30
17-21
32-22
34-18
21-22
25-18
19-26
175.2Avg total
89.0Scored
86.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.187.1176.2+2.062%
Season at home (4)86.290.2176.5-4.050%
Season away (4)92.084.0176.0+8.075%
Last 10 (10)89.086.2175.2+2.850%
Last 5 (5)94.083.6177.6+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)83.590.2173.7-6.636%
vs Similar ◀ (14)87.486.9174.2+0.557%
vs Weaker (5)92.679.4172.0+13.280%
This opponent (Trieste) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +1.6+1.6
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +2.9+2.9Q2Q2: +1.2+1.2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +1.6+1.6
TriesteVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TriesteLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brescia
#4
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H21/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H23/05
Lega A
Brescia
#4
L
39-47
39
47
-8
A25/05
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#3
W
41-38
41
38
+3
A27/09
Lega A
Venezia
#9
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H04/10
Lega A
Varese
#6
L
38-40
38
40
-2
A10/10
Lega A
Cantu
#16
W
44-38
44
38
+6
H18/10
Lega A
Verona
#10
L
51-53
51
53
-2
H25/10
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
46-55
46
55
-9
A02/11
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H08/11
Lega A
88.1Avg total
43.3Scored
44.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.045.389.3-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (16)44.645.089.6-0.444%-
Last 30 away (14)43.445.689.0-2.143%-
Last 10 (10)43.344.888.1-1.540%-
Last 5 (5)47.448.495.8-1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)41.945.987.8-4.127%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)45.343.989.2+1.455%-
vs Weaker (4)48.846.595.2+2.275%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
55-40
55
40
+15
A14/11
Lega A
86.7Avg total
45.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.442.885.1-0.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.442.286.6+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)40.643.283.9-2.644%-
Last 10 (10)45.141.686.7+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)49.441.691.0+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)41.546.087.5-4.527%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)41.641.483.1+0.257%-
vs Weaker (5)46.439.485.8+7.080%-
This opponent (Trieste) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Triestetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trieste: 85.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers33.418.3
54.8%
54.3%36.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.210.9
34.9%
34.3%32.7
🏀 Free throws21.816.4
75.2%
74.6%16.4
They take 64.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 48% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.0
50.7%
54.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
34.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.1
69.2%
74.6%17.1
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Trieste
WWWWLLLLWL
Varese
WLLWWWLLWL
#7
League position
#6
+0.2
Net rating
-1.2
100.8
Offensive rating
91.5
100.6
Defensive rating
92.7
53.6%
Effective FG%
52.4%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
12.9%
Turnover %
18.5%
0.34
Free-throw rate
0.38
34.9%
3-point %
36.3%
56.5%
Assist %
66.7%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence100.8 · 91.5Defence100.6 · 92.7Shooting53.6% · 52.4%3-point %34.9% · 36.3%Ball care12.9% · 18.5%Free throws0.34 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Trieste   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Trieste wins
6
Varese wins
DateGameScore
10/10/26Varese v Trieste85-84
04/04/26Trieste v Varese90-89
21/12/25Varese v Trieste84-69
04/05/25Varese v Trieste85-80
03/11/24Trieste v Varese107-81
16/04/23Trieste v Varese80-83
18/12/22Varese v Trieste104-99 OT
13/04/22Varese v Trieste76-92
14/11/21Trieste v Varese70-86
25/04/21Varese v Trieste73-79
Triestelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HBC Roma116-100
02/11/26AVirtus Bologna100-93
25/10/26HVerona108-99
18/10/26HCantu92-72
10/10/26AVarese84-85
04/10/26HVenezia82-87
27/09/26AOlimpia Milano79-83
25/05/26ABrescia75-90
23/05/26HBrescia83-77
21/05/26HBrescia80-84
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AReggiana99-84
11/11/26APeristeri96-101
08/11/26HUdine81-84
31/10/26AVerona99-88
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Trieste
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW57%
HomeLWWW75%
AwayLLW33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%75%33%
Points / game94.499.587.7
Allowed / game88.489.587.0
Point differential+6.0+10.0+0.7
Avg total182.9189.0174.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (3)0% (1)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW62%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%50%75%
Points / game89.186.292.0
Allowed / game87.190.284.0
Point differential+2.0-4.0+8.0
Avg total176.2176.5176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
2 Basket Napoli76186%93.786.6+7.1
3 Olimpia Milano75271%90.982.7+8.1
4 Maxima Roma75271%88.183.7+4.4
5 Treviso75271%90.788.6+2.1
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Trieste74357%94.488.4+6.0
8 Udine74357%81.380.3+1.0
9 Venezia74357%87.988.6-0.7
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 Tortona72529%83.791.0-7.3
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati71614%81.692.0-10.4
16 Cantu7070%76.990.9-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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