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Varese vs Pesaro Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 28 Apr 2019
Tip-off: 16:30
Final 81-75
19-22 19-8 19-28 24-17
Position#7
Record14-13
FormLLLLL
Points / game79.0
Allowed / game76.1
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Pesaro
Italy
Position#15
Record7-20
FormLWLLL
Points / game80.1
Allowed / game91.9
ItalyLega ARound 28
Domestic2018-19
Meetings · Varese v Pesaro
11 Feb 2024
VAR91
PES80
11 Mar 2023
VAR110
PES99
20 Mar 2022
VAR76
PES87
14 Mar 2021
VAR81
PES68
15 Dec 2019
VAR103
PES87
28 Apr 2019
VAR81
PES75
31 Mar 2018
VAR88
PES68
12 Mar 2017
VAR93
PES78
18 Oct 2015
VAR88
PES81
01 Feb 2015
VAR70
PES80
01 Dec 2013
VAR91
PES77
28 Apr 2013
VAR85
PES70
14 Apr 2012
VAR63
PES67
17 Oct 2010
VAR87
PES78
24 Jan 2010
VAR89
PES86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pesaro winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Cremona
#3
W
83-64
83
64
+19
110avg 122
H17/03
Lega A
Oostende
#33
W
73-70
73
70
+3
no box
A20/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#5
L
77-81
77
81
-4
66avg 122
A24/03
Lega A
Oostende
#33
W
72-57
72
57
+15
no box
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Venezia
#2
W
87-79
87
79
+8
90avg 122
H31/03
Lega A
Torino
#13
L
66-72
66
72
-6
146avg 122
A07/04
Lega A
s.Oliver Wurzburg
#3
L
66-89
66
89
-23
no box
H10/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
84-94
84
94
-10
206avg 122
H13/04
Lega A
s.Oliver Wurzburg
#3
L
86-89
86
89
-3
no box
A17/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Cantu
#8
L
75-84
75
84
-9
160avg 122
A20/04
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-13
19-22
18-16
23-13
21-17
22-16
11-17
19-20
24-21
16-18
17-15
20-27
18-15
10-9
27-14
17-19
25-18
19-22
28-16
15-23
15-21
21-20
18-13
12-18
21-23
12-23
18-22
15-21
22-23
23-14
18-32
21-25
11-30
21-16
27-29
27-14
25-18
15-21
13-23
22-22
154.8Avg total
76.9Scored
77.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)79.076.1155.1+2.952%
Season at home (13)83.976.0159.9+7.977%
Season away (14)74.576.2150.7-1.729%
Last 10 (10)76.977.9154.8-1.040%
Last 5 (5)75.485.6161.0-10.20%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)79.583.0162.5-3.550%
vs Similar (10)80.981.3162.2-0.440%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)78.573.4151.9+5.159%
This opponent (Pesaro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PesaroItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPesaro
Date
Competition
Venezia
#2
L
86-89
86
89
-3
111avg 120
H03/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
74-111
74
111
-37
97avg 120
A10/02
Lega A
Brescia
#12
L
86-92
86
92
-6
109avg 120
H03/03
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
68-105
68
105
-37
86avg 120
A09/03
Lega A
Cantu
#8
L
72-80
72
80
-8
no box
H17/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
70-78
70
78
-8
56avg 120
A23/03
Lega A
Avellino
#9
W
91-89
91
89
+2
82avg 120
H31/03
Lega A
Cremona
#3
L
64-97
64
97
-33
134avg 120
A07/04
Lega A
Trento
#6
L
76-81
76
81
-5
70avg 120
A14/04
Lega A
Sassari
#4
L
81-88
81
88
-7
272avg 120
H20/04
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-18
28-20
14-21
19-30
18-29
10-30
21-21
25-31
26-17
25-26
17-26
18-23
21-16
8-30
20-29
19-30
22-20
14-20
23-15
13-25
11-22
26-23
10-16
23-17
8-28
32-20
25-23
26-18
18-33
12-20
20-25
14-19
20-14
21-21
23-19
12-27
16-22
17-22
16-15
32-29
167.8Avg total
76.8Scored
91.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (27)80.191.9172.0-11.726%
Season at home (14)86.090.8176.8-4.836%
Season away (13)73.893.0166.8-19.215%
Last 10 (10)76.891.0167.8-14.210%
Last 5 (5)76.486.6163.0-10.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)79.792.2171.9-12.525%
vs Similar (2)82.077.0159.0+5.0100%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -4.8-4.8
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: -3.4-3.4Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -3.9-3.9Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: -1.1-1.1Q4: -4.8-4.8
VaresePesaro
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cremona
#3
W
42-35
42
35
+7
H17/03
Lega A
Oostende
#33
W
43-33
43
33
+10
A20/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#5
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A24/03
Lega A
Oostende
#33
W
28-24
28
24
+4
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Venezia
#2
W
44-40
44
40
+4
H31/03
Lega A
Torino
#13
L
36-41
36
41
-5
A07/04
Lega A
s.Oliver Wurzburg
#3
L
33-46
33
46
-13
H10/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Olimpia Milano
#1
W
45-37
45
37
+8
H13/04
Lega A
s.Oliver Wurzburg
#3
L
32-46
32
46
-14
A17/04
FIBA Europe Cup
Cantu
#8
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A20/04
Lega A
76.3Avg total
38.3Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.438.377.7+1.253%-
Last 30 at home (13)40.536.777.2+3.869%-
Last 30 away (17)38.639.578.1-0.841%-
Last 10 (10)38.338.076.3+0.370%-
Last 5 (5)37.241.879.0-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)34.044.078.0-10.00%-
vs Similar (10)42.439.381.7+3.170%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)38.336.674.9+1.653%-
This opponent (Pesaro) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PesaroLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Venezia
#2
W
53-38
53
38
+15
H03/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
28-59
28
59
-31
A10/02
Lega A
Brescia
#12
W
51-43
51
43
+8
H03/03
Lega A
Trieste
#10
L
29-46
29
46
-17
A09/03
Lega A
Cantu
#8
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H17/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#11
L
37-45
37
45
-8
A23/03
Lega A
Avellino
#9
L
40-48
40
48
-8
H31/03
Lega A
Cremona
#3
L
30-53
30
53
-23
A07/04
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
41-35
41
35
+6
A14/04
Lega A
Sassari
#4
L
33-44
33
44
-11
H20/04
Lega A
82.9Avg total
37.8Scored
45.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.847.085.8-8.223%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.846.388.1-4.527%-
Last 30 away (15)35.847.783.5-11.920%-
Last 10 (10)37.845.182.9-7.330%-
Last 5 (5)36.245.081.2-8.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (28)38.547.185.7-8.625%-
vs Similar (2)42.544.587.0-2.00%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 79.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.019.0
50.0%
51.0%38.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.310.5
35.8%
35.1%31.5
🏀 Free throws15.510.3
66.5%
72.3%10.3
They take 67.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pesarotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pesaro: 75.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.4 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 80.7 points a game
51%
32%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.517.7
43.7%
51.0%35.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.48.8
33.3%
35.1%26.4
🏀 Free throws17.414.0
80.5%
72.3%14.0
They take 66.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Apr 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LLLLLWWLWW
Pesaro
LLLWLLLLLL
#7
League position
#15
+1.4
Net rating
-18.8
112.1
Offensive rating
100.3
110.7
Defensive rating
119.1
51.6%
Effective FG%
46.2%
54.1%
Opp. effective FG%
58.4%
12.7%
Turnover %
17.9%
30.1%
Off. rebound %
32.0%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.26
35.8%
3-point %
33.3%
50.2%
Assist %
36.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence112.1 · 100.3Defence110.7 · 119.1Shooting51.6% · 46.2%3-point %35.8% · 33.3%Ball care12.7% · 17.9%Off. rebounds30.1% · 32.0%Free throws0.23 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)40% · 10%
■ Varese   ■ Pesaro
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Varese wins
3
Pesaro wins
DateGameScore
30/12/18Pesaro v Varese78-98
31/03/18Varese v Pesaro88-68
03/12/17Pesaro v Varese74-71
12/03/17Varese v Pesaro93-78
13/11/16Pesaro v Varese83-87
31/01/16Pesaro v Varese76-71
18/10/15Varese v Pesaro88-81
01/02/15Varese v Pesaro70-80
19/10/14Pesaro v Varese85-96
16/03/14Pesaro v Varese79-86
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/04/19ACantu75-84
17/04/19As.Oliver Wurzburg86-89
13/04/19HOlimpia Milano84-94
10/04/19Hs.Oliver Wurzburg66-89
07/04/19ATorino66-72
31/03/19HVenezia87-79
27/03/19HOostende72-57
24/03/19ABrindisi77-81
20/03/19AOostende73-70
17/03/19HCremona83-64
Pesarolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/04/19HSassari81-88
14/04/19ATrento76-81
07/04/19ACremona64-97
31/03/19HAvellino91-89
23/03/19AVirtus Bologna70-78
17/03/19HCantu72-80
09/03/19ATrieste68-105
03/03/19HBrescia86-92
10/02/19AOlimpia Milano74-111
03/02/19HVenezia86-89

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL52%
HomeWWWWL77%
AwayWLLLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271314
Win %52%77%29%
Points / game79.083.974.5
Allowed / game76.176.076.2
Point differential+2.9+7.9-1.7
Avg total155.1159.9150.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%54%7%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (9)50% (2)29% (7)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Pesaro
Lega A 2018-19
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL26%
HomeLLLWL36%
AwayLLLLL15%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games271413
Win %26%36%15%
Points / game80.186.073.8
Allowed / game91.990.893.0
Point differential-11.7-4.8-19.2
Avg total172.0176.8166.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+4%7%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (9)75% (4)40% (5)
Overtime %4%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Olimpia Milano2720774%87.179.5+7.6
2 Venezia2819968%81.875.2+6.5
3 Cremona2718967%83.378.7+4.6
4 Trieste27161159%89.083.8+5.2
5 Brindisi27161159%81.778.9+2.9
6 Sassari28161257%86.481.8+4.6
7 Trento28161257%79.580.5-1.1
8 Avellino27151256%82.281.9+0.3
9 Cantu28151354%84.286.0-1.8
10 Varese27141352%79.076.1+2.9
11 Brescia29141548%80.681.3-0.7
12 Virtus Bologna29141548%79.480.6-1.2
13 Torino2781930%82.887.4-4.6
14 Pesaro2772026%80.191.9-11.7
15 Reggiana2872125%77.983.5-5.6
16 Pistoia2862221%75.483.0-7.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese1919192481
Pesaro228281775
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