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Varese vs Tortona Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 10 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#6
Record5-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game87.1
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.4/10
Above normal
4.1/10
Below normal
Position#12
Record2-5
FormWLLWL
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game91.0
ItalyLega ARound 15· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Varese v Tortona
10 Jan 2027
VAR v TOR
upcoming
28 Mar 2026
VAR97
TOR87
06 Oct 2024
VAR95
TOR105
15 Oct 2023
VAR78
TOR80
02 Jan 2023
VAR88
TOR89
20 Nov 2021
VAR85
TOR76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Tortona win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 77
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 77
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
82-85
82
85
-3
80avg 77
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
85-87
85
87
-2
72avg 77
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
106avg 77
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
92avg 77
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
90avg 77
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
L
81-84
81
84
-3
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
96-101
96
101
-5
no box
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
99-84
99
84
+15
no box
A14/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
25-23
25-21
23-27
26-17
26-14
23-26
14-27
18-17
20-28
27-30
17-21
32-22
34-18
21-22
25-18
19-26
175.2Avg total
89.0Scored
86.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.187.1176.2+2.062%
Season at home (4)86.290.2176.5-4.050%
Season away (4)92.084.0176.0+8.075%
Last 10 (10)89.086.2175.2+2.850%
Last 5 (5)94.083.6177.6+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)83.590.2173.7-6.636%
vs Similar (14)87.486.9174.2+0.557%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)92.679.4172.0+13.280%
This opponent (Tortona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TortonaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTortona
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#14
L
86-93
86
93
-7
77avg 76
A11/10
Lega A
Aris
#4
L
68-88
68
88
-20
54avg 76
A14/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#4
L
75-89
75
89
-14
69avg 76
H18/10
Lega A
San Pablo Burgos
#30
W
89-79
89
79
+10
75avg 76
H21/10
Eurocup
Basket Napoli
#2
L
90-92
90
92
-2
82avg 76
H25/10
Lega A
Rostock
#28
W
86-83
86
83
+3
83avg 76
H28/10
Eurocup
Udine
#8
L
77-86
77
86
-9
68avg 76
A01/11
Lega A
Cedevita Olimpija
#25
L
71-73 OT
71
73
-2
no box
A04/11
Eurocup
Treviso
#5
W
87-76
87
76
+11
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Hapoel Jerusalem
#1
L
77-91
77
91
-14
no box
H11/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-25
23-22
19-22
19-24
21-31
23-14
11-17
13-26
20-22
18-25
24-25
13-17
18-25
18-20
22-17
31-17
26-19
21-22
17-26
26-25
23-24
16-20
18-26
29-13
14-19
19-21
20-17
24-29
20-16
16-11
14-17
15-21
22-20
22-19
27-21
16-16
25-25
25-23
18-21
9-22
165.6Avg total
80.6Scored
85.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.791.0174.7-7.329%
Season at home (4)88.287.5175.8+0.850%
Season away (3)77.795.7173.3-18.00%
Last 10 (10)80.685.0165.6-4.430%
Last 5 (5)79.681.8161.4-2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)80.388.0168.3-7.730%
vs Similar (12)82.582.2164.7+0.342%
vs Weaker (8)90.885.2176.0+5.575%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
VareseTortona
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#7
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#8
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
55-40
55
40
+15
A14/11
Lega A
86.7Avg total
45.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.442.885.1-0.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.442.286.6+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)40.643.283.9-2.644%-
Last 10 (10)45.141.686.7+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)49.441.691.0+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)41.546.087.5-4.527%-
vs Similar (14)41.641.483.1+0.257%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)46.439.485.8+7.080%-
This opponent (Tortona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TortonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#14
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A11/10
Lega A
Aris
#4
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A14/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#4
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H18/10
Lega A
San Pablo Burgos
#30
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H21/10
Eurocup
Basket Napoli
#2
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H25/10
Lega A
Rostock
#28
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H28/10
Eurocup
Udine
#8
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A01/11
Lega A
Cedevita Olimpija
#25
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A04/11
Eurocup
Treviso
#5
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H08/11
Lega A
Hapoel Jerusalem
#1
W
50-48
50
48
+2
H11/11
Eurocup
83.8Avg total
41.5Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.242.584.7-0.253%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.941.284.2+1.762%-
Last 30 away (14)41.443.985.3-2.443%-
Last 10 (10)41.542.383.8-0.850%-
Last 5 (5)40.439.680.0+0.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)42.344.086.3-1.750%-
vs Similar (12)41.240.781.9+0.658%-
vs Weaker (8)43.643.286.9+0.450%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.0
50.7%
54.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
34.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.1
69.2%
74.6%17.1
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Tortonatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tortona: 81.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.519.8
51.4%
54.3%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.37.9
31.2%
34.3%23.7
🏀 Free throws23.618.1
76.7%
74.6%18.1
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WLLWWWLLWL
Tortona
LWLLWLWLLL
#6
League position
#12
-1.2
Net rating
-8.6
91.5
Offensive rating
95.7
92.7
Defensive rating
104.3
52.4%
Effective FG%
49.6%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
55.7%
18.5%
Turnover %
14.0%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.37
36.3%
3-point %
31.2%
66.7%
Assist %
52.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence91.5 · 95.7Defence92.7 · 104.3Shooting52.4% · 49.6%3-point %36.3% · 31.2%Ball care18.5% · 14.0%Free throws0.38 · 0.37Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Varese   ■ Tortona
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Varese wins
8
Tortona wins
DateGameScore
28/03/26Varese v Tortona97-87
09/11/25Tortona v Varese90-87
09/03/25Tortona v Varese89-82 OT
06/10/24Varese v Tortona95-105
24/03/24Tortona v Varese90-83
15/10/23Varese v Tortona78-80
05/02/23Tortona v Varese103-91
02/01/23Varese v Tortona88-89
16/04/22Tortona v Varese104-99
20/11/21Varese v Tortona85-76
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AReggiana99-84
11/11/26APeristeri96-101
08/11/26HUdine81-84
31/10/26AVerona99-88
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
Tortonalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HHapoel Jerusalem77-91
08/11/26HTreviso87-76
04/11/26ACedevita Olimpija71-73 OT
01/11/26AUdine77-86
28/10/26HRostock86-83
25/10/26HBasket Napoli90-92
21/10/26HSan Pablo Burgos89-79
18/10/26HMaxima Roma75-89
14/10/26AAris68-88
11/10/26AReggiana86-93

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW62%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%50%75%
Points / game89.186.292.0
Allowed / game87.190.284.0
Point differential+2.0-4.0+8.0
Avg total176.2176.5176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
Tortona
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW29%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%50%0%
Points / game83.788.277.7
Allowed / game91.087.595.7
Point differential-7.3+0.8-18.0
Avg total174.7175.8173.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
2 Basket Napoli76186%93.786.6+7.1
3 Olimpia Milano75271%90.982.7+8.1
4 Maxima Roma75271%88.183.7+4.4
5 Treviso75271%90.788.6+2.1
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Trieste74357%94.488.4+6.0
8 Udine74357%81.380.3+1.0
9 Venezia74357%87.988.6-0.7
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 Tortona72529%83.791.0-7.3
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati71614%81.692.0-10.4
16 Cantu7070%76.990.9-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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