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Varese vs Trento Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 21 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#6
Record5-3
FormWWLLW
Points / game89.1
Allowed / game87.1
vs
Form · last 5 games
6.4/10
Above normal
4.9/10
Around normal
Position#11
Record3-4
FormWLLLL
Points / game80.4
Allowed / game83.6
ItalyLega ARound 23· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Varese v Trento
21 Mar 2027
VAR v TRE
upcoming
25 Oct 2025
VAR74
TRE85
09 Feb 2025
VAR79
TRE92
22 Oct 2023
VAR84
TRE85
16 Oct 2022
VAR91
TRE94
30 Jan 2022
VAR90
TRE89
28 Mar 2021
VAR88
TRE70
29 Dec 2019
VAR81
TRE86
21 Oct 2018
VAR93
TRE85
04 Nov 2017
VAR93
TRE66
15 Apr 2017
VAR83
TRE80
06 Mar 2016
VAR96
TRE82
09 Nov 2014
VAR70
TRE76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Trento win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 77
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#8
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 77
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
82-85
82
85
-3
80avg 77
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
85-87
85
87
-2
72avg 77
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
106avg 77
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
92avg 77
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
90avg 77
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#9
L
81-84
81
84
-3
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
96-101
96
101
-5
no box
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
99-84
99
84
+15
no box
A14/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
25-23
25-21
23-27
26-17
26-14
23-26
14-27
18-17
20-28
27-30
17-21
32-22
34-18
21-22
25-18
19-26
175.2Avg total
89.0Scored
86.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (8)89.187.1176.2+2.062%
Season at home (4)86.290.2176.5-4.050%
Season away (4)92.084.0176.0+8.075%
Last 10 (10)89.086.2175.2+2.850%
Last 5 (5)94.083.6177.6+10.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)83.590.2173.7-6.636%
vs Similar (14)87.486.9174.2+0.557%
vs Weaker ◀ (5)92.679.4172.0+13.280%
This opponent (Trento) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TrentoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTrento
Date
Competition
Udine
#9
W
74-66
74
66
+8
71avg 76
A10/10
Lega A
Chemnitz
#13
L
80-88
80
88
-8
75avg 76
H13/10
Eurocup
Varese
#6
W
87-85
87
85
+2
83avg 76
H18/10
Lega A
JL Bourg
#24
L
79-90
79
90
-11
70avg 76
A21/10
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
L
81-87
81
87
-6
69avg 76
A24/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#10
W
94-92
94
92
+2
88avg 76
H27/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#5
L
62-88
62
88
-26
51avg 76
H01/11
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#2
L
79-90
79
90
-11
no box
A03/11
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
86-88
86
88
-2
no box
A08/11
Lega A
Tofas
#6
L
86-96
86
96
-10
no box
H10/11
Eurocup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-21
15-12
16-17
20-16
17-19
17-18
24-18
22-33
23-17
26-24
23-21
15-23
24-19
21-34
15-22
19-15
26-22
19-16
19-24
17-25
23-16
24-34
20-17
27-25
10-13
16-15
17-22
19-38
21-24
18-13
15-28
25-25
28-26
20-30
22-19
16-13
24-21
20-23
22-23
20-29
167.8Avg total
80.8Scored
87.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)80.483.6164.0-3.143%
Season at home (3)79.788.7168.3-9.033%
Season away (4)81.079.8160.8+1.250%
Last 10 (10)80.887.0167.8-6.230%
Last 5 (5)81.490.8172.2-9.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)84.089.2173.2-5.233%
vs Similar (13)81.884.1165.9-2.246%
vs Weaker (2)88.593.0181.5-4.50%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -4.2-4.2
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: -2.3-2.3Q3Q3: -3.0-3.0Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +1.6+1.6Q4: -4.2-4.2
VareseTrento
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Murcia
#4
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#8
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#13
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#9
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H08/11
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A11/11
Champions League
Reggiana
#14
W
55-40
55
40
+15
A14/11
Lega A
86.7Avg total
45.1Scored
41.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.442.885.1-0.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.442.286.6+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)40.643.283.9-2.644%-
Last 10 (10)45.141.686.7+3.570%-
Last 5 (5)49.441.691.0+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)41.546.087.5-4.527%-
vs Similar (14)41.641.483.1+0.257%-
vs Weaker ◀ (5)46.439.485.8+7.080%-
This opponent (Trento) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
TrentoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Udine
#9
W
38-33
38
33
+5
A10/10
Lega A
Chemnitz
#13
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H13/10
Eurocup
Varese
#6
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H18/10
Lega A
JL Bourg
#24
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A21/10
Eurocup
Scafati
#15
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A24/10
Lega A
Buducnost
#10
L
47-50
47
50
-3
H27/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#5
L
26-28
26
28
-2
H01/11
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#2
W
39-37
39
37
+2
A03/11
Eurocup
Olimpia Milano
#3
L
48-56
48
56
-8
A08/11
Lega A
Tofas
#6
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H10/11
Eurocup
83.2Avg total
41.5Scored
41.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.044.185.1-3.233%-
Last 30 at home (13)39.244.283.4-4.923%-
Last 30 away (17)42.344.186.4-1.841%-
Last 10 (10)41.541.783.2-0.240%-
Last 5 (5)40.843.083.8-2.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (15)41.544.686.1-3.127%-
vs Similar (13)40.243.583.6-3.338%-
vs Weaker (2)42.045.087.0-3.050%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.0
50.7%
54.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
34.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.1
69.2%
74.6%17.1
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Trentotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Trento: 80.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.317.0
48.2%
54.3%34.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.310.4
33.2%
34.3%31.2
🏀 Free throws20.215.1
74.8%
74.6%15.1
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WLLWWWLLWL
Trento
LLLLWLLWLW
#6
League position
#11
-1.2
Net rating
-5.3
91.5
Offensive rating
87.9
92.7
Defensive rating
93.1
52.4%
Effective FG%
48.9%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
18.5%
Turnover %
17.4%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.30
36.3%
3-point %
33.2%
66.7%
Assist %
66.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence91.5 · 87.9Defence92.7 · 93.1Shooting52.4% · 48.9%3-point %36.3% · 33.2%Ball care18.5% · 17.4%Free throws0.38 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Varese   ■ Trento
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Varese wins
9
Trento wins
DateGameScore
18/10/26Trento v Varese87-85
08/02/26Trento v Varese84-78
25/10/25Varese v Trento74-85
09/02/25Varese v Trento79-92
13/10/24Trento v Varese106-100
04/02/24Trento v Varese90-84
22/10/23Varese v Trento84-85
22/01/23Trento v Varese90-80
16/10/22Varese v Trento91-94 OT
30/01/22Varese v Trento90-89
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26AReggiana99-84
11/11/26APeristeri96-101
08/11/26HUdine81-84
31/10/26AVerona99-88
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
Trentolast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26HTofas86-96
08/11/26AOlimpia Milano86-88
03/11/26ABasket Napoli79-90
01/11/26HMaxima Roma62-88
27/10/26HBuducnost94-92
24/10/26AScafati81-87
21/10/26AJL Bourg79-90
18/10/26HVarese87-85
13/10/26HChemnitz80-88
10/10/26AUdine74-66

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW62%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844
Win %62%50%75%
Points / game89.186.292.0
Allowed / game87.190.284.0
Point differential+2.0-4.0+8.0
Avg total176.2176.5176.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%0%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %12%25%0%
Trento
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL43%
HomeLWL33%
AwayWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games734
Win %43%33%50%
Points / game80.479.781.0
Allowed / game83.688.779.8
Point differential-3.1-9.0+1.2
Avg total164.0168.3160.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Basket Napoli87188%93.286.9+6.4
2 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
3 Olimpia Milano86275%89.981.1+8.8
4 Treviso86275%90.887.6+3.1
5 Maxima Roma85362%87.284.2+3.0
6 Varese85362%89.187.1+2.0
7 Venezia85362%87.987.6+0.2
8 Trieste84450%93.888.6+5.1
9 Udine84450%79.980.6-0.8
10 Verona84450%88.590.8-2.2
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 Tortona83538%86.591.1-4.6
13 BC Roma82625%98.698.0+0.6
14 Reggiana82625%82.085.6-3.6
15 Scafati81712%81.591.9-10.4
16 Cantu8080%78.892.8-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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