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Adelaide vs Perth Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 24 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 08:00
Scheduled
Position#5
Record7-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game92.5
Adelaide
Australia
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
5.5/10
Above normal
Perth
Australia
Position#6
Record7-6
FormLLLWW
Points / game95.7
Allowed / game97.8
AustraliaNBLRound 14· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide v Perth
09 Jan 2027
ADEL v PERT
upcoming
24 Dec 2026
ADEL v PERT
upcoming
28 Dec 2025
ADEL95
PERT84
09 Nov 2025
ADEL87
PERT94
28 Dec 2024
ADEL92
PERT116
08 Dec 2024
ADEL105
PERT115
28 Dec 2023
ADEL82
PERT100
21 Oct 2023
ADEL89
PERT78
09 Dec 2022
ADEL90
PERT98
05 Nov 2022
ADEL89
PERT94
06 Mar 2022
ADEL73
PERT92
18 Jan 2022
ADEL87
PERT74
23 May 2021
ADEL68
PERT76
10 Apr 2021
ADEL83
PERT68
01 Jan 2020
ADEL100
PERT97
15 Nov 2019
ADEL95
PERT99
17 Jan 2019
ADEL97
PERT84
11 Oct 2018
ADEL91
PERT99
03 Mar 2018
ADEL109
PERT74
04 Feb 2018
ADEL94
PERT82
04 Jan 2018
ADEL97
PERT86
22 Dec 2016
ADEL78
PERT74
03 Dec 2016
ADEL92
PERT86
18 Nov 2015
ADEL88
PERT94
10 Oct 2015
ADEL66
PERT79
20 Feb 2015
ADEL101
PERT94
21 Nov 2014
ADEL74
PERT84
11 Apr 2014
ADEL89
PERT84
14 Mar 2014
ADEL102
PERT79
22 Nov 2013
ADEL91
PERT86
09 Dec 2012
ADEL85
PERT91
11 Nov 2012
ADEL77
PERT65
24 Feb 2012
ADEL79
PERT90
08 Oct 2011
ADEL69
PERT102
23 Jan 2011
ADEL77
PERT76
17 Oct 2010
ADEL74
PERT69
10 Jan 2010
ADEL72
PERT74
23 Dec 2009
ADEL73
PERT94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Perth win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
92-114
92
114
-22
87avg 87
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
72-88
72
88
-16
61avg 87
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
91-96
91
96
-5
79avg 87
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
84-78
84
78
+6
76avg 87
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 87
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
94-108
94
108
-14
86avg 87
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
106avg 87
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
89-96
89
96
-7
77avg 87
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
106-78
106
78
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
101-93
101
93
+8
no box
H12/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
21-31
17-25
21-20
32-20
18-18
23-26
20-12
23-22
14-22
26-17
31-23
23-26
25-42
18-30
29-14
22-22
28-24
28-20
18-28
34-29
17-30
26-20
23-26
23-20
22-21
27-16
36-23
21-18
27-10
32-25
21-27
21-31
187.1Avg total
93.1Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)92.992.5185.4+0.554%
Season at home (6)90.386.7177.0+3.750%
Season away (7)95.197.4192.6-2.357%
Last 10 (10)93.194.0187.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)99.695.2194.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)92.997.9190.7-5.050%
vs Similar ◀ (10)93.795.5189.2-1.850%
vs Weaker (6)96.088.5184.5+7.550%
This opponent (Perth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PerthAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPerth
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#10
W
92-88
92
88
+4
88avg 83
H02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
100-84
100
84
+16
75avg 83
H10/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
81-102
81
102
-21
73avg 83
A17/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
103-102
103
102
+1
95avg 83
H23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
91-99
91
99
-8
81avg 83
H28/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
98-105
98
105
-7
84avg 83
H31/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
104-109
104
109
-5
no box
A04/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
92-100
92
100
-8
no box
H08/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
98-92
98
92
+6
no box
H12/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
111-100 OT
111
100
+11
no box
H14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-24
22-22
22-21
22-21
21-22
20-16
29-28
30-18
21-31
22-21
20-24
18-26
25-26
21-22
31-31
26-23
17-33
25-26
28-21
21-19
19-24
25-27
25-27
29-27
22-37
21-26
25-18
36-28
27-31
21-22
17-24
27-23
19-21
24-27
26-16
29-28
26-30
24-18
19-18
23-26
195.1Avg total
97.0Scored
98.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)95.797.8193.5-2.154%
Season at home (11)96.396.4192.6-0.164%
Season away (2)92.5105.5198.0-13.00%
Last 10 (10)97.098.1195.1-1.150%
Last 5 (5)100.6101.2201.8-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)90.998.7189.6-7.929%
vs Similar ◀ (14)93.092.3185.3+0.757%
vs Weaker (9)99.987.2187.1+12.789%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: -5.6-5.6Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: -5.6-5.6Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: -0.2-0.2Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: +1.4+1.4Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +2.2+2.2
AdelaidePerth
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
43-72
43
72
-29
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
43-50
43
50
-7
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H12/11
NBL
93.6Avg total
44.6Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.595.6-1.453%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.046.494.4+1.654%-
Last 30 away (17)46.450.196.5-3.853%-
Last 10 (10)44.649.093.6-4.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.047.697.6+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)48.949.998.9-1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)44.547.992.4-3.450%-
vs Weaker (6)47.046.293.2+0.867%-
This opponent (Perth) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PerthLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
South East Melbourne
#10
W
48-46
48
46
+2
H02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
41-38
41
38
+3
H10/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
43-52
43
52
-9
A17/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
46-48
46
48
-2
H23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
42-59
42
59
-17
H28/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H31/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
43-63
43
63
-20
A04/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
48-53
48
53
-5
H08/11
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
43-48
43
48
-5
H12/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
50-48
50
48
+2
H14/11
NBL
95.4Avg total
44.8Scored
50.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.247.994.0-1.743%-
Last 30 at home (20)46.045.891.8+0.250%-
Last 30 away (10)46.552.198.6-5.630%-
Last 10 (10)44.850.695.4-5.830%-
Last 5 (5)45.652.698.2-7.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)44.150.494.6-6.314%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)46.248.995.1-2.643%-
vs Weaker (9)47.744.392.0+3.367%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 90.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.9
56.3%
56.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.4
30.3%
34.2%28.2
🏀 Free throws23.116.4
71.0%
74.0%16.4
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Perththeir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Perth: 87.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.6 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.820.3
53.7%
56.4%40.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.210.9
34.9%
34.2%32.7
🏀 Free throws16.614.0
84.3%
74.0%14.0
They take 69.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 24 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
WWLWLWWLLL
Perth
WWLLLLWLWW
#5
League position
#6
-3.3
Net rating
-8.1
99.1
Offensive rating
97.4
102.4
Defensive rating
105.5
51.6%
Effective FG%
53.1%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
57.1%
11.2%
Turnover %
13.7%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.24
30.3%
3-point %
34.9%
67.5%
Assist %
64.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 97.4Defence102.4 · 105.5Shooting51.6% · 53.1%3-point %30.3% · 34.9%Ball care11.2% · 13.7%Free throws0.32 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Adelaide   ■ Perth
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Adelaide wins
8
Perth wins
DateGameScore
24/09/26Perth v Adelaide98-97
20/02/26Perth v Adelaide86-74
28/12/25Adelaide v Perth95-84
07/12/25Perth v Adelaide94-95
09/11/25Adelaide v Perth87-94
07/02/25Perth v Adelaide112-104
17/01/25Perth v Adelaide110-103
28/12/24Adelaide v Perth92-116
08/12/24Adelaide v Perth105-115
28/12/23Adelaide v Perth82-100
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMelbourne United101-93
07/11/26HIllawarra Hawks106-78
01/11/26HBrisbane Bullets89-96
30/10/26ANew Zealand Breakers108-101
24/10/26ASouth East Melbourne94-108
16/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers94-88
11/10/26ASydney84-78
07/10/26HMelbourne United91-96
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114
Perthlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HIllawarra Hawks111-100 OT
12/11/26HTasmania JackJumpers98-92
08/11/26HCairns Taipans92-100
04/11/26ABrisbane Bullets104-109
31/10/26HIllawarra Hawks98-105
28/10/26HSydney91-99
23/10/26HMelbourne United103-102
17/10/26ASydney81-102
10/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers100-84
02/10/26HSouth East Melbourne92-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeLLLWW50%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game92.990.395.1
Allowed / game92.586.797.4
Point differential+0.5+3.7-2.3
Avg total185.4177.0192.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Perth
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW54%
HomeLLLWW64%
AwayLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games13112
Win %54%64%0%
Points / game95.796.392.5
Allowed / game97.896.4105.5
Point differential-2.1-0.1-13.0
Avg total193.5192.6198.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%18%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (4)0% (1)
Overtime %8%9%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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