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Brescia vs Pistoia Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 14 May 2024
Tip-off: 18:45
Final 97-75
30-19 16-15 25-17 26-24
Position#3
Record22-9
FormWLLWW
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game78.2
Brescia 🏆
Italy
vs
Pistoia
Italy
Position#10
Record15-16
FormLLWLL
Points / game80.7
Allowed / game83.6
ItalyLega ALega A - Quarter-finals· PalaLeonessa
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Brescia v Pistoia
29 Dec 2024
BRE90
PIS83
14 May 2024
BRE97
PIS75
12 May 2024
BRE79
PIS70
28 Jan 2024
BRE109
PIS90
08 Dec 2019
BRE86
PIS74
31 Mar 2019
BRE87
PIS79
14 Jan 2018
BRE76
PIS72
08 Jan 2017
BRE97
PIS79
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Brescia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pistoia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

BresciaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrescia
Date
Competition
Scafati
#14
W
89-78
89
78
+11
80avg 78
H10/03
Lega A
Sassari
#8
L
101-106 OT
101
106
-5
no box
A17/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
73-87
73
87
-14
60avg 78
H25/03
Lega A
Varese
#12
W
95-92
95
92
+3
90avg 78
A30/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
W
72-65
72
65
+7
66avg 78
H06/04
Lega A
Venezia
#4
W
90-84
90
84
+6
85avg 78
H14/04
Lega A
Cremona
#11
L
77-84
77
84
-7
72avg 78
A20/04
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
77-83
77
83
-6
70avg 78
A28/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#15
W
94-75
94
75
+19
97avg 78
H05/05
Lega A
Pistoia
#10
W
79-70
79
70
+9
71avg 78
H12/05
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-22
25-26
19-18
23-12
20-26
28-27
28-19
13-17
22-20
17-24
22-29
12-14
21-22
23-26
28-19
23-25
13-14
20-22
17-14
22-15
22-19
22-22
21-26
25-17
21-22
20-23
19-22
17-17
21-28
19-13
21-23
16-19
22-20
25-19
22-21
25-15
23-12
25-16
13-27
18-15
167.1Avg total
84.7Scored
82.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)87.078.2165.2+8.871%
Season at home (16)87.874.8162.6+13.188%
Season away (15)86.181.8167.9+4.353%
Last 10 (10)84.782.4167.1+2.360%
Last 5 (5)83.479.2162.6+4.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)54.889.2144.0-34.50%
vs Similar (4)74.580.5155.0-6.025%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)89.879.0168.8+10.876%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Cremona
#11
W
74-67
74
67
+7
70avg 70
A10/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#7
W
95-93 OT
95
93
+2
no box
A16/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
83-84
83
84
-1
71avg 70
H23/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
W
100-93
100
93
+7
98avg 70
A01/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
W
83-82
83
82
+1
78avg 70
H07/04
Lega A
Pesaro
#16
L
82-89
82
89
-7
73avg 70
A13/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#15
L
90-96
90
96
-6
87avg 70
H21/04
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
105-80
105
80
+25
100avg 70
A28/04
Lega A
Varese
#12
L
78-96
78
96
-18
62avg 70
H05/05
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
70-79
70
79
-9
53avg 70
A12/05
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-17
21-11
17-19
18-20
21-18
17-23
21-20
20-18
19-24
19-19
22-15
23-26
14-26
27-29
27-28
32-10
16-25
24-19
30-18
13-20
16-29
24-21
24-22
18-17
25-27
24-24
26-15
15-30
24-20
31-22
21-26
29-12
19-26
23-28
15-23
21-19
12-23
16-25
27-13
15-18
171.9Avg total
86.0Scored
85.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)80.783.6164.4-2.948%
Season at home (15)76.978.7155.7-1.847%
Season away (16)84.288.2172.5-4.050%
Last 10 (10)86.085.9171.9+0.150%
Last 5 (5)85.088.0173.0-3.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)79.783.3163.0-3.654%
vs Similar (16)81.984.3166.2-2.450%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -5.1-5.1Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: +1.4+1.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -5.1-5.1Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q3: +3.1+3.1Q4Q4: +2.8+2.8Q4: +1.4+1.4
BresciaPistoia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
BresciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Scafati
#14
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H10/03
Lega A
Sassari
#8
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A17/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H25/03
Lega A
Varese
#12
L
44-48
44
48
-4
A30/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
33-36
33
36
-3
H06/04
Lega A
Venezia
#4
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H14/04
Lega A
Cremona
#11
L
41-45
41
45
-4
A20/04
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
40-41
40
41
-1
A28/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#15
W
47-39
47
39
+8
H05/05
Lega A
Pistoia
#10
W
48-28
48
28
+20
H12/05
Lega A
85.4Avg total
43.1Scored
42.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.240.282.5+2.043%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.136.281.4+8.964%-
Last 30 away (16)39.743.883.4-4.125%-
Last 10 (10)43.142.385.4+0.830%-
Last 5 (5)44.038.882.8+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)26.047.873.8-21.80%-
vs Similar (4)39.041.580.5-2.525%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)46.538.985.4+7.757%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cremona
#11
W
39-28
39
28
+11
A10/03
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#7
L
38-41
38
41
-3
A16/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
38-43
38
43
-5
H23/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
41-55
41
55
-14
A01/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
L
40-44
40
44
-4
H07/04
Lega A
Pesaro
#16
L
40-50
40
50
-10
A13/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#15
L
49-51
49
51
-2
H21/04
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
55-42
55
42
+13
A28/04
Lega A
Varese
#12
L
42-54
42
54
-12
H05/05
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
28-48
28
48
-20
A12/05
Lega A
86.6Avg total
41.0Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.544.182.6-5.630%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.141.779.8-3.629%-
Last 30 away (16)38.946.285.1-7.231%-
Last 10 (10)41.045.686.6-4.620%-
Last 5 (5)42.849.091.8-6.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (13)37.243.680.8-6.538%-
vs Similar (16)39.945.084.9-5.125%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Bresciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brescia: 82.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.721.2
52.1%
53.1%42.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.58.2
34.9%
35.7%24.6
🏀 Free throws20.015.1
75.5%
76.3%15.1
They take 64.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 88.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.322.1
53.5%
53.1%44.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.310.4
41.1%
35.7%31.2
🏀 Free throws18.513.5
73.0%
76.3%13.5
They take 66.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 May 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Brescia
WWLLWWWLLW
Pistoia
LLWLLWWLWW
#3
League position
#10
+2.5
Net rating
+2.3
113.6
Offensive rating
112.3
111.1
Defensive rating
110.0
52.2%
Effective FG%
56.6%
53.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.4%
15.1%
Turnover %
13.4%
32.4%
Off. rebound %
18.0%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.28
34.9%
3-point %
41.1%
60.5%
Assist %
47.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence113.6 · 112.3Defence111.1 · 110.0Shooting52.2% · 56.6%3-point %34.9% · 41.1%Ball care15.1% · 13.4%Off. rebounds32.4% · 18.0%Free throws0.31 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Brescia   ■ Pistoia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Brescia wins
3
Pistoia wins
DateGameScore
12/05/24Brescia v Pistoia79-70
28/01/24Brescia v Pistoia109-90
22/10/23Pistoia v Brescia72-84
08/12/19Brescia v Pistoia86-74
31/03/19Brescia v Pistoia87-79
09/12/18Pistoia v Brescia73-70
09/05/18Pistoia v Brescia90-85
14/01/18Brescia v Pistoia76-72
07/05/17Pistoia v Brescia86-62
08/01/17Brescia v Pistoia97-79
Brescialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/05/24HPistoia79-70
05/05/24HBrindisi94-75
28/04/24AOlimpia Milano77-83
20/04/24ACremona77-84
14/04/24HVenezia90-84
06/04/24HTortona72-65
30/03/24AVarese95-92
25/03/24HVirtus Bologna73-87
17/03/24ASassari101-106 OT
10/03/24HScafati89-78
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/05/24ABrescia70-79
05/05/24HVarese78-96
28/04/24ATrento105-80
21/04/24HBrindisi90-96
13/04/24APesaro82-89
07/04/24HReggiana83-82
01/04/24AVirtus Bologna100-93
23/03/24HTreviso83-84
16/03/24ABasket Napoli95-93 OT
10/03/24ACremona74-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Brescia
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW71%
HomeLWWWW88%
AwayLLWLL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311615
Win %71%88%53%
Points / game87.087.886.1
Allowed / game78.274.881.8
Point differential+8.8+13.1+4.3
Avg total165.2162.6167.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%44%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Pistoia
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL48%
HomeWLWLL47%
AwayWWLWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311516
Win %48%47%50%
Points / game80.776.984.2
Allowed / game83.678.788.2
Point differential-2.9-1.8-4.0
Avg total164.4155.7172.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%7%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (12)57% (7)80% (5)
Overtime %3%0%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna3224875%88.876.9+11.9
2 Olimpia Milano3223972%81.275.4+5.8
3 Brescia3122971%87.078.2+8.8
4 Venezia32201262%82.778.5+4.1
5 Reggiana32171553%80.080.1-0.1
6 Trento32161650%83.685.8-2.2
7 Pistoia31151648%80.783.6-2.9
8 Basket Napoli30141647%86.287.1-0.9
9 Sassari30141647%79.882.7-2.9
10 Tortona32141844%80.279.8+0.5
11 Cremona30121840%80.279.6+0.6
12 Varese30121840%87.390.1-2.8
13 Treviso30121840%81.184.8-3.7
14 Scafati30121840%82.787.5-4.8
15 Brindisi30102033%75.881.8-6.0
16 Pesaro30102033%80.687.5-7.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Brescia3016252697
Pistoia1915172475
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