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Varese vs Brescia Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 30 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 20:00
Final 92-95
22-21 26-23 19-28 25-23
Position#12
Record9-15
FormWWLLW
Points / game84.2
Allowed / game90.0
vs
Brescia 🏆
Italy
Position#3
Record17-7
FormLLWLL
Points / game88.0
Allowed / game77.9
ItalyLega ARound 25· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Varese v Brescia
14 Feb 2026
VAR98
BRE96
25 Jan 2025
VAR77
BRE118
30 Mar 2024
VAR92
BRE95
28 Jan 2023
VAR80
BRE72
26 Sep 2021
VAR75
BRE72
27 Sep 2020
VAR94
BRE89
13 Sep 2020
VAR102
BRE100
11 Mar 2020
VAR v BRE
upcoming
07 Oct 2018
VAR81
BRE80
16 May 2018
VAR64
BRE69
11 Feb 2018
VAR100
BRE72
19 Nov 2016
VAR68
BRE74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Brescia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trento
#6
L
84-90
84
90
-6
77avg 81
A04/02
Lega A
CSM Oradea
#17
W
103-96
103
96
+7
88avg 81
A07/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Pesaro
#16
W
91-80
91
80
+11
85avg 81
H11/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
63-94
63
94
-31
49avg 81
A03/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
80-65
80
65
+15
70avg 81
A06/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
W
81-73
81
73
+8
72avg 81
H10/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
91-76
91
76
+15
89avg 81
H13/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#5
L
80-113
80
113
-33
71avg 81
A17/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
83-90
83
90
-7
77avg 81
A24/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
W
81-80
81
80
+1
78avg 81
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-20
15-25
21-21
19-24
18-27
25-23
39-29
21-17
29-21
18-22
22-21
22-16
13-29
17-25
20-27
13-13
16-16
18-16
23-16
23-17
15-16
20-22
28-18
18-17
24-15
21-20
22-19
24-22
15-26
29-25
22-30
14-32
15-21
16-20
28-27
24-22
19-26
29-19
18-25
15-10
169.4Avg total
83.7Scored
85.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)84.290.0174.2-5.838%
Season at home (12)84.783.2167.8+1.550%
Season away (12)83.796.8180.5-13.225%
Last 10 (10)83.785.7169.4-2.060%
Last 5 (5)83.286.4169.6-3.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)77.991.9169.8-14.025%
vs Similar (16)90.688.1178.8+2.562%
vs Weaker (6)87.782.5170.2+5.267%
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBrescia
Date
Competition
Treviso
#13
W
88-67
88
67
+21
87avg 76
H14/01
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
93-69
93
69
+24
95avg 76
A20/01
Lega A
Pistoia
#10
W
109-90
109
90
+19
107avg 76
H28/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#7
W
104-83
104
83
+21
104avg 76
A03/02
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
W
86-63
86
63
+23
87avg 76
H11/02
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#1
L
74-80
74
80
-6
65avg 76
H15/02
Italian Cup
Pesaro
#16
L
83-93
83
93
-10
78avg 76
A03/03
Lega A
Scafati
#14
W
89-78
89
78
+11
80avg 76
H10/03
Lega A
Sassari
#8
L
101-106 OT
101
106
-5
no box
A17/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
73-87
73
87
-14
60avg 76
H25/03
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-23
18-17
33-9
19-18
25-17
27-15
25-15
16-22
27-13
29-32
18-26
35-19
30-12
24-16
17-25
33-30
29-10
24-17
14-9
19-27
11-19
19-15
16-27
28-19
21-29
24-25
23-25
15-14
22-22
25-26
19-18
23-12
20-26
28-27
28-19
13-17
22-20
17-24
22-29
12-14
171.6Avg total
90.0Scored
81.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)88.077.9166.0+10.171%
Season at home (12)89.275.2164.3+14.083%
Season away (12)86.980.7167.6+6.258%
Last 10 (10)90.081.6171.6+8.460%
Last 5 (5)84.088.8172.8-4.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)55.890.8146.6-35.00%
vs Similar (3)73.779.7153.3-6.033%
vs Weaker ◀ (21)90.177.7167.8+12.476%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +2.1+2.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.4-2.4Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: +1.3+1.3Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +2.1+2.1
VareseBrescia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trento
#6
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A04/02
Lega A
CSM Oradea
#17
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A07/02
FIBA Europe Cup
Pesaro
#16
W
47-43
47
43
+4
H11/02
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#1
L
30-54
30
54
-24
A03/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
34-32
34
32
+2
A06/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Brindisi
#15
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H10/03
Lega A
Nymburk
#10
W
45-35
45
35
+10
H13/03
FIBA Europe Cup
Reggiana
#5
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A17/03
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
31-41
31
41
-10
A24/03
Lega A
Bahcesehir Kol.
#4
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H27/03
FIBA Europe Cup
83.5Avg total
40.1Scored
43.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.844.387.0-1.547%-
Last 30 at home (14)45.942.188.0+3.964%-
Last 30 away (16)40.046.286.2-6.231%-
Last 10 (10)40.143.483.5-3.340%-
Last 5 (5)40.642.082.6-1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)40.451.091.4-10.625%-
vs Similar (16)43.441.885.1+1.650%-
vs Weaker (6)44.342.086.3+2.367%-
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Treviso
#13
L
36-40
36
40
-4
H14/01
Lega A
Trento
#6
W
52-32
52
32
+20
A20/01
Lega A
Pistoia
#10
W
56-45
56
45
+11
H28/01
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#7
W
54-28
54
28
+26
A03/02
Lega A
Reggiana
#5
W
53-27
53
27
+26
H11/02
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#1
L
30-34
30
34
-4
H15/02
Italian Cup
Pesaro
#16
L
45-54
45
54
-9
A03/03
Lega A
Scafati
#14
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H10/03
Lega A
Sassari
#8
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A17/03
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H25/03
Lega A
86.5Avg total
46.0Scored
40.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)42.140.182.2+2.050%-
Last 30 at home (13)45.537.583.1+8.062%-
Last 30 away (17)39.542.181.5-2.641%-
Last 10 (10)46.040.586.5+5.540%-
Last 5 (5)41.846.688.4-4.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)27.847.875.6-20.00%-
vs Similar (3)38.741.780.3-3.033%-
vs Weaker ◀ (21)46.638.384.9+8.267%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 82.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.716.1
49.2%
53.1%32.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.411.9
35.6%
35.7%35.7
🏀 Free throws19.214.6
76.0%
76.3%14.6
They take 66.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bresciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brescia: 87.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.0 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.023.5
56.0%
53.1%47.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.09.0
34.6%
35.7%27.0
🏀 Free throws17.313.1
75.7%
76.3%13.1
They take 68.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 26.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
WLLWWWLWWL
Brescia
LLWLLWWWWW
#12
League position
#3
-3.1
Net rating
+11.9
108.2
Offensive rating
113.4
111.4
Defensive rating
101.6
51.4%
Effective FG%
54.4%
50.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.5%
15.0%
Turnover %
15.8%
24.7%
Off. rebound %
29.5%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.6%
3-point %
34.6%
62.9%
Assist %
55.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence108.2 · 113.4Defence111.4 · 101.6Shooting51.4% · 54.4%3-point %35.6% · 34.6%Ball care15.0% · 15.8%Off. rebounds24.7% · 29.5%Free throws0.29 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Varese   ■ Brescia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Varese wins
6
Brescia wins
DateGameScore
26/11/23Brescia v Varese116-73
28/01/23Varese v Brescia80-72
08/10/22Brescia v Varese88-83
01/05/22Brescia v Varese102-71
26/09/21Varese v Brescia75-72
10/02/21Brescia v Varese98-83
27/09/20Varese v Brescia94-89 OT
13/09/20Varese v Brescia102-100
01/09/20Brescia v Varese89-88
10/11/19Brescia v Varese91-74
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/03/24HBahcesehir Kol.81-80
24/03/24ATortona83-90
17/03/24AReggiana80-113
13/03/24HNymburk91-76
10/03/24HBrindisi81-73
06/03/24ANymburk80-65
03/03/24AOlimpia Milano63-94
11/02/24HPesaro91-80
07/02/24ACSM Oradea103-96
04/02/24ATrento84-90
Brescialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/03/24HVirtus Bologna73-87
17/03/24ASassari101-106 OT
10/03/24HScafati89-78
03/03/24APesaro83-93
15/02/24HBasket Napoli74-80
11/02/24HReggiana86-63
03/02/24ABasket Napoli104-83
28/01/24HPistoia109-90
20/01/24ATrento93-69
14/01/24HTreviso88-67

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL38%
HomeWLLWW50%
AwayWLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %38%50%25%
Points / game84.284.783.7
Allowed / game90.083.296.8
Point differential-5.8+1.5-13.2
Avg total174.2167.8180.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)40% (5)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Brescia
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL71%
HomeWWWWL83%
AwayLWWLL58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %71%83%58%
Points / game88.089.286.9
Allowed / game77.975.280.7
Point differential+10.1+14.0+6.2
Avg total166.0164.3167.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%50%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna2417771%88.276.6+11.6
2 Brescia2417771%88.077.9+10.1
3 Olimpia Milano2517868%79.073.4+5.6
4 Venezia2517868%82.977.4+5.4
5 Reggiana25141156%80.980.2+0.7
6 Tortona25131252%80.879.0+1.8
7 Trento25131252%83.483.2+0.2
8 Pistoia24121250%78.982.4-3.5
9 Basket Napoli25121348%86.085.5+0.5
10 Sassari25121348%77.782.0-4.3
11 Scafati25111444%82.986.7-3.8
12 Cremona25101540%80.479.7+0.8
13 Treviso25101540%80.284.0-3.8
14 Varese2491538%84.290.0-5.8
15 Brindisi2571828%74.481.7-7.2
16 Pesaro2571828%79.487.3-7.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2226192592
Brescia2123282395
← all games of the day
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