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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 12 Feb 2019
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 103-87
35-27 19-22 29-21 20-17
Position#4
Record37-18
FormWWLLL
Points / game112.0
Allowed / game107.3
vs
Position#17
Record25-29
FormLLWLL
Points / game105.3
Allowed / game105.8
USANBA· Pepsi Center
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#9
L
108-114
108
114
-6
101avg 108
A24/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
132-95
132
95
+37
129avg 108
H26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
W
126-110
126
110
+16
121avg 108
H27/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
95-92
95
92
+3
81avg 108
A29/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
105-99
105
99
+6
100avg 108
A31/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
136-122
136
122
+14
142avg 108
H02/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
107-106
107
106
+1
105avg 108
A03/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
L
103-129
103
129
-26
87avg 108
A05/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#15
L
130-135
130
135
-5
126avg 108
A07/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
110-117
110
117
-7
107avg 108
A09/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-30
34-35
22-23
28-26
37-32
33-23
28-26
34-14
41-37
36-31
30-28
19-14
16-30
25-30
19-17
35-15
29-26
24-30
33-19
19-24
35-43
48-28
30-24
23-27
29-38
32-26
28-24
18-18
36-34
19-34
28-29
20-32
35-30
25-42
27-36
43-27
23-33
33-23
26-27
28-34
227.1Avg total
115.2Scored
111.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (55)112.0107.3219.3+4.767%
Season at home (27)116.5104.5221.0+12.085%
Season away (28)107.7109.9217.6-2.250%
Last 10 (10)115.2111.9227.1+3.360%
Last 5 (5)117.2121.8239.0-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)111.7112.0223.7-0.357%
vs Weaker (16)114.4108.6222.9+5.875%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#8
L
99-107
99
107
-8
89avg 98
A21/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#12
L
99-111
99
111
-12
89avg 98
H24/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
100-94
100
94
+6
93avg 98
A26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
W
106-97
106
97
+9
104avg 98
A28/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
L
89-105
89
105
-16
78avg 98
H31/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
102-118
102
118
-16
95avg 98
H02/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
L
88-95
88
95
-7
84avg 98
H03/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
118-108
118
108
+10
112avg 98
A06/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
L
96-102
96
102
-6
88avg 98
A09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
118-120
118
120
-2
110avg 98
A11/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-33
27-17
18-37
31-20
31-27
23-27
18-23
27-34
27-23
21-30
32-17
20-24
25-26
27-32
29-12
25-27
21-31
27-19
20-28
21-27
24-31
29-41
21-22
28-24
27-21
27-32
23-31
11-11
34-30
28-25
32-24
24-29
28-17
31-33
24-25
13-27
34-24
25-30
23-36
36-30
207.2Avg total
101.5Scored
105.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (54)105.3105.8211.1-0.546%
Season at home (27)104.3105.8210.1-1.541%
Season away (27)106.2105.8212.0+0.452%
Last 10 (10)101.5105.7207.2-4.230%
Last 5 (5)104.4108.6213.0-4.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)100.1106.6206.8-6.538%
vs Similar ◀ (15)104.6103.7208.3+0.947%
vs Weaker (7)104.198.7202.9+5.471%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +3.6+3.6Q4: -1.7-1.7
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: +0.7+0.7Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +3.6+3.6Q4: -1.7-1.7
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#9
L
58-65
58
65
-7
A24/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
70-55
70
55
+15
H26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
W
77-68
77
68
+9
H27/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
41-60
41
60
-19
A29/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
53-56
53
56
-3
A31/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
83-71
83
71
+12
H02/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
61-64
61
64
-3
A03/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
L
55-68
55
68
-13
A05/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#15
L
60-72
60
72
-12
A07/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
D
56-56
56
56
+0
A09/02
NBA
124.9Avg total
61.4Scored
63.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.059.0117.9+0.043%-
Last 30 at home (15)63.157.1120.2+5.973%-
Last 30 away (15)54.960.8115.7-5.913%-
Last 10 (10)61.463.5124.9-2.130%-
Last 5 (5)63.066.2129.2-3.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)59.960.3120.1-0.436%-
vs Weaker (16)58.257.8116.0+0.450%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#8
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A21/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#12
D
54-54
54
54
+0
H24/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
L
52-58
52
58
-6
A28/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
L
48-50
48
50
-2
H31/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
53-72
53
72
-19
H02/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
54-53
54
53
+1
H03/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
62-55
62
55
+7
A06/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A11/02
NBA
108.8Avg total
53.9Scored
54.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.852.9105.8-0.153%-
Last 30 at home (13)54.252.8107.0+1.354%-
Last 30 away (17)51.853.0104.8-1.253%-
Last 10 (10)53.954.9108.8-1.040%-
Last 5 (5)57.456.8114.2+0.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)49.552.0101.5-2.538%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)55.754.7110.4+0.973%-
vs Weaker (7)50.650.1100.7+0.429%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 115.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers68.6 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.834.3
57.4%
51.7%68.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.610.3
33.7%
35.4%30.9
🏀 Free throws20.415.7
77.0%
76.6%15.7
They take 90.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 101.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.8 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.3 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.627.9
52.1%
51.7%55.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.510.8
33.2%
35.4%32.4
🏀 Free throws18.813.3
70.7%
76.6%13.3
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Feb 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LLLWWWWWWL
Miami Heat
LLWLLLWWLL
#4
League position
#17
+3.3
Net rating
-4.3
114.8
Offensive rating
102.9
111.5
Defensive rating
107.1
55.0%
Effective FG%
51.2%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
11.6%
Turnover %
16.4%
25.2%
Off. rebound %
27.1%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.22
33.7%
3-point %
33.2%
63.2%
Assist %
62.0%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence114.8 · 102.9Defence111.5 · 107.1Shooting55.0% · 51.2%3-point %33.7% · 33.2%Ball care11.6% · 16.4%Off. rebounds25.2% · 27.1%Free throws0.23 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)60% · 30%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Denver Nuggets wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/19APhiladelphia 76ers110-117
07/02/19ABrooklyn Nets130-135
05/02/19ADetroit Pistons103-129
03/02/19AMinnesota Timberwolves107-106
02/02/19HHouston Rockets136-122
31/01/19ANew Orleans Pelicans105-99
29/01/19AMemphis Grizzlies95-92
27/01/19HPhiladelphia 76ers126-110
26/01/19HPhoenix Suns132-95
24/01/19AUtah Jazz108-114
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/02/19AGolden State Warriors118-120
09/02/19ASacramento Kings96-102
06/02/19APortland Trail Blazers118-108
03/02/19HIndiana Pacers88-95
02/02/19HOklahoma City Thunder102-118
31/01/19HChicago Bulls89-105
28/01/19ANew York Knicks106-97
26/01/19ACleveland Cavaliers100-94
24/01/19HLos Angeles Clippers99-111
21/01/19ABoston Celtics99-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL67%
HomeWWWWW85%
AwayWWLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games552728
Win %67%85%50%
Points / game112.0116.5107.7
Allowed / game107.3104.5109.9
Point differential+4.7+12.0-2.2
Avg total219.3221.0217.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%52%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won81% (16)80% (5)82% (11)
Overtime %4%0%7%
Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL46%
HomeWLLLL41%
AwayWWWLL52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games542727
Win %46%41%52%
Points / game105.3104.3106.2
Allowed / game105.8105.8105.8
Point differential-0.5-1.5+0.4
Avg total211.1210.1212.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%11%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (16)50% (8)38% (8)
Overtime %2%0%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks56421475%117.1107.3+9.8
2 Golden State Warriors55401573%119.1111.5+7.6
3 Toronto Raptors58421672%114.1108.5+5.6
4 Denver Nuggets55371867%112.0107.3+4.7
5 Indiana Pacers57381967%108.3102.8+5.5
6 Oklahoma City Thunder56371966%115.3109.8+5.5
7 Philadelphia 76ers56362064%115.9112.2+3.6
8 Boston Celtics56352162%112.9106.5+6.4
9 Portland Trail Blazers56332359%113.0110.4+2.7
10 Houston Rockets56332359%113.2110.9+2.3
11 Utah Jazz56322457%109.2105.8+3.4
12 San Antonio Spurs58322655%112.4111.4+1.0
13 Sacramento Kings56302654%113.3114.5-1.2
14 Los Angeles Clippers58312753%113.9113.9+0.0
15 Brooklyn Nets58292950%111.7112.3-0.6
16 Los Angeles Lakers56282850%112.2113.4-1.1
17 Charlotte Hornets56272948%111.2111.0+0.2
18 Detroit Pistons55262947%106.5107.9-1.4
19 Dallas Mavericks56263046%108.8108.7+0.2
20 Minnesota Timberwolves56263046%111.7111.7+0.0
21 Miami Heat54252946%105.3105.8-0.5
22 New Orleans Pelicans57253244%115.8114.6+1.2
23 Orlando Magic57253244%105.2107.5-2.3
24 Washington Wizards57243342%113.8116.7-2.9
25 Memphis Grizzlies57233440%100.3103.4-3.1
26 Atlanta Hawks56183832%110.9118.5-7.6
27 Chicago Bulls57134423%102.8111.6-8.8
28 Cleveland Cavaliers57124521%102.3112.9-10.6
29 Phoenix Suns58114719%105.9115.8-9.9
30 New York Knicks56104618%105.2114.2-9.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets35192920103
Miami Heat2722211787
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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