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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 19 Mar 2011
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 103-98
29-21 27-26 23-24 24-27
Position#4
Record47-22
FormWWWLW
Points / game101.5
Allowed / game94.4
vs
Position#9
Record41-28
FormWWWWL
Points / game107.4
Allowed / game103.3
USANBA
NBA2010-11
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#15
L
86-91
86
91
-5
H28/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#8
L
96-99
96
99
-3
H04/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
95-125
95
125
-30
A05/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#1
L
86-87
86
87
-1
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
96-105
96
105
-9
H09/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#6
W
94-88
94
88
+6
H11/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
118-85
118
85
+33
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
110-80
110
80
+30
H15/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#7
L
85-96
85
96
-11
H17/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
106-85
106
85
+21
A18/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-23
17-29
15-13
20-26
30-22
33-23
17-26
16-28
12-36
38-26
22-32
23-31
22-18
27-22
16-23
21-24
25-25
26-32
24-20
21-28
29-26
26-27
13-17
26-18
28-22
27-15
29-23
34-25
22-19
27-20
28-24
33-17
18-24
27-22
17-21
23-29
25-21
25-16
36-20
20-28
191.3Avg total
97.2Scored
94.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (69)101.594.4195.9+7.168%
Season at home (35)102.693.4196.0+9.271%
Season away (34)100.495.4195.8+5.065%
Last 10 (10)97.294.1191.3+3.140%
Last 5 (5)102.686.8189.4+15.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (12)95.698.8194.3-3.233%
vs Weaker (18)105.296.2201.3+9.072%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
106-107 OT
106
107
-1
A26/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
100-90
100
90
+10
H01/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
120-80
120
80
+40
H03/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
W
103-101
103
101
+2
A04/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
94-100
94
100
-6
A06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
116-97
116
97
+19
A11/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#24
W
131-101
131
101
+30
H13/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#12
W
114-103
114
103
+11
A15/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
102-87
102
87
+15
A16/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#8
L
82-85
82
85
-3
A18/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-25
20-24
33-16
25-32
21-25
25-22
25-23
29-20
31-23
31-23
29-21
29-13
30-23
28-28
16-25
29-25
23-30
15-18
27-23
29-29
30-25
29-24
31-17
26-31
33-28
33-32
27-14
38-27
23-21
35-24
36-30
20-28
17-20
29-22
26-21
30-24
21-18
21-29
18-17
22-21
201.9Avg total
106.8Scored
95.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (69)107.4103.3210.7+4.159%
Season at home (34)110.9101.4212.2+9.579%
Season away (35)104.0105.2209.2-1.240%
Last 10 (10)106.895.1201.9+11.770%
Last 5 (5)109.094.6203.6+14.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)104.2104.7208.9-0.543%
vs Weaker (16)109.9100.4210.3+9.675%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +6.1+6.1Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: +2.7+2.7
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +1.0+1.0Q2Q2: +4.1+4.1Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -0.2-0.2Q3: +6.1+6.1Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: +2.7+2.7
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#15
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H28/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#8
W
63-45
63
45
+18
H04/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
50-62
50
62
-12
A05/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#1
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H09/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#6
W
55-53
55
53
+2
H11/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
55-37
55
37
+18
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H15/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#7
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H17/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
50-37
50
37
+13
A18/03
NBA
98.6Avg total
51.8Scored
46.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.648.6102.2+5.073%-
Last 30 at home (16)53.846.8100.6+6.969%-
Last 30 away (14)53.450.6104.0+2.979%-
Last 10 (10)51.846.898.6+5.060%-
Last 5 (5)50.842.493.2+8.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (12)51.848.5100.3+3.375%-
vs Weaker (18)54.848.6103.4+6.272%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
39-49
39
49
-10
A26/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
46-47
46
47
-1
H01/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
62-46
62
46
+16
H03/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A04/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#23
L
38-48
38
48
-10
A06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A11/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#24
W
66-60
66
60
+6
H13/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#12
W
58-45
58
45
+13
A15/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
46-42
46
42
+4
A16/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#8
L
42-47
42
47
-5
A18/03
NBA
99.8Avg total
51.4Scored
48.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.850.8104.6+2.957%-
Last 30 at home (12)53.249.3102.6+3.958%-
Last 30 away (18)54.151.8105.9+2.356%-
Last 10 (10)51.448.499.8+3.060%-
Last 5 (5)54.248.6102.8+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (14)51.150.2101.3+0.943%-
vs Weaker (16)56.151.4107.5+4.869%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
4
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/03/11AAtlanta Hawks106-85
17/03/11HOklahoma City Thunder85-96
15/03/11HSan Antonio Spurs110-80
12/03/11HMemphis Grizzlies118-85
11/03/11HLos Angeles Lakers94-88
09/03/11HPortland Trail Blazers96-105
06/03/11HChicago Bulls86-87
05/03/11ASan Antonio Spurs95-125
04/03/11HOrlando Magic96-99
28/02/11HNew York Knicks86-91
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/03/11AOrlando Magic82-85
16/03/11AAtlanta Hawks102-87
15/03/11ANew Orleans Pelicans114-103
13/03/11HDetroit Pistons131-101
11/03/11APhoenix Suns116-97
06/03/11ALos Angeles Clippers94-100
04/03/11AUtah Jazz103-101
03/03/11HCharlotte Hornets120-80
01/03/11HAtlanta Hawks100-90
26/02/11APortland Trail Blazers106-107 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2010-11
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW68%
HomeLWWWL71%
AwayWWLLW65%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games693534
Win %68%71%65%
Points / game101.5102.6100.4
Allowed / game94.493.495.4
Point differential+7.1+9.2+5.0
Avg total195.9196.0195.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%43%41%
Close games (≤5 pts) won28% (18)22% (9)33% (9)
Overtime %6%6%6%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2010-11
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL59%
HomeWWWWW79%
AwayLWWWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games693435
Win %59%79%40%
Points / game107.4110.9104.0
Allowed / game103.3101.4105.2
Point differential+4.1+9.5-1.2
Avg total210.7212.2209.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%44%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (20)75% (12)12% (8)
Overtime %1%0%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs68551381%103.397.1+6.2
2 Chicago Bulls68491972%97.891.2+6.6
3 Boston Celtics67481972%97.391.1+6.2
4 Los Angeles Lakers69492071%101.595.0+6.5
5 Dallas Mavericks69482170%100.296.5+3.7
6 Miami Heat69472268%101.594.4+7.1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder68452366%104.6101.1+3.4
8 Orlando Magic70442663%99.794.4+5.4
9 Denver Nuggets69412859%107.4103.3+4.1
10 Portland Trail Blazers68392957%96.395.0+1.3
11 New Orleans Pelicans70403057%94.893.0+1.8
12 Atlanta Hawks69393057%95.395.3+0.0
13 Memphis Grizzlies69373254%100.098.7+1.3
14 Philadelphia 76ers69363352%99.197.2+1.9
15 Utah Jazz69363352%100.3101.3-1.0
16 New York Knicks68353351%106.6105.8+0.9
17 Houston Rockets70363451%105.4103.7+1.7
18 Phoenix Suns67343351%104.8105.2-0.4
19 Indiana Pacers69303943%99.6100.9-1.3
20 Golden State Warriors69303943%103.1105.9-2.8
21 Charlotte Hornets68284041%92.996.8-3.9
22 Milwaukee Bucks68274140%91.392.5-1.2
23 Los Angeles Clippers70274339%98.5101.5-3.0
24 Detroit Pistons69254436%96.2100.2-4.1
25 Brooklyn Nets67224533%93.799.3-5.6
26 Toronto Raptors68194928%99.5105.1-5.6
27 Minnesota Timberwolves70175324%101.5106.8-5.4
28 Sacramento Kings67165124%98.4104.3-5.9
29 Washington Wizards67165124%96.4104.3-7.9
30 Cleveland Cavaliers68135519%95.0105.5-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat29272324103
Denver Nuggets2126242798
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