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Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 04 Oct 2022
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 111-121
24-26 28-38 31-29 28-28
Position#10
Record-
FormWLLLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Position#17
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANBA· Miami-Dade Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves
21 Oct 2026
MIA106
MIN131
03 Jan 2026
MIA115
MIN125
07 Mar 2025
MIA104
MIN106
18 Dec 2023
MIA108
MIN112
26 Dec 2022
MIA113
MIN110
04 Oct 2022
MIA111
MIN121
12 Mar 2022
MIA104
MIN113
07 May 2021
MIA121
MIN112
26 Feb 2020
MIA126
MIN129
30 Dec 2018
MIA104
MIN113
30 Oct 2017
MIA122
MIN125
17 Mar 2017
MIA123
MIN105
17 Nov 2015
MIA91
MIN103
08 Nov 2014
MIA102
MIN92
04 Apr 2014
MIA121
MIN122
18 Dec 2012
MIA103
MIN92
02 Nov 2010
MIA129
MIN97
23 Feb 2010
MIA88
MIN91
18 Feb 2009
MIA104
MIN111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#6
W
118-107
118
107
+11
108avg 102
H18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
102-127
102
127
-25
90avg 102
H20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
109-103
109
103
+6
93avg 102
A22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
82-102
82
102
-20
64avg 102
A24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
80-93
80
93
-13
60avg 102
H26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
111-103
111
103
+8
106avg 102
A28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
96-100
96
100
-4
79avg 102
H30/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
66-100
66
100
-34
no box
H02/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#1
L
64-81
64
81
-17
no box
A03/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#4
W
94-70
94
70
+24
no box
H05/07
California Classic
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-28
29-34
39-14
25-31
24-35
21-35
26-26
31-31
39-18
23-29
25-25
22-31
11-29
22-28
19-19
30-26
19-17
23-20
16-32
22-24
29-22
19-24
34-29
29-28
17-32
32-23
26-27
21-18
17-29
10-22
14-19
25-30
14-17
21-16
21-20
8-28
27-22
24-16
17-21
26-11
190.8Avg total
92.2Scored
98.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)92.298.6190.8-6.440%
Last 5 (5)86.290.8177.0-4.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)65.090.5155.5-25.50%
vs Similar ◀ (22)104.7101.5206.2+3.264%
vs Weaker (6)117.0105.0222.0+12.067%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#21
L
114-132
114
132
-18
102avg 106
H06/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
127-121
127
121
+6
115avg 106
H08/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
120-124
120
124
-4
110avg 106
H11/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
109-104
109
104
+5
98avg 106
H13/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
130-117
130
117
+13
129avg 106
A16/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
96-124
96
124
-28
85avg 106
A20/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
95-104
95
104
-9
82avg 106
H21/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
119-118
119
118
+1
111avg 106
H24/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
109-111
109
111
-2
102avg 106
A26/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
106-114
106
114
-8
93avg 106
H30/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-35
28-32
27-34
21-31
30-35
34-22
33-25
30-39
21-33
26-37
40-27
33-27
20-26
33-25
25-33
31-20
41-33
24-29
32-30
33-25
32-33
17-27
28-36
19-28
39-21
12-23
32-23
12-37
33-28
27-28
33-31
26-31
31-28
24-25
30-21
24-37
29-28
23-21
32-25
22-40
229.4Avg total
112.5Scored
116.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)112.5116.9229.4-4.440%
Last 5 (5)105.0114.2219.2-9.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)114.0129.5243.5-15.50%
vs Similar ◀ (20)117.5117.1234.6+0.460%
vs Weaker (8)127.0111.4238.4+15.675%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: -6.4-6.4
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -2.7-2.7Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: -2.3-2.3Q2: -2.1-2.1Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +2.7+2.7Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: -6.4-6.4
Miami HeatMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#6
L
54-62
54
62
-8
H18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
45-70
45
70
-25
H20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
62-47
62
47
+15
A22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
33-57
33
57
-24
A24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
42-37
42
37
+5
H26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
49-55
49
55
-6
H30/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
27-51
27
51
-24
H02/07
California Classic
Sacramento Kings
#1
W
35-33
35
33
+2
A03/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#4
W
51-38
51
38
+13
H05/07
California Classic
94.2Avg total
44.6Scored
49.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.351.5102.8-0.257%-
Last 30 at home (17)52.451.4103.8+0.959%-
Last 30 away (13)49.951.5101.5-1.654%-
Last 10 (10)44.649.694.2-5.050%-
Last 5 (5)42.044.686.6-2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)31.042.073.0-11.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)50.752.1102.9-1.450%-
vs Weaker (6)60.252.2112.3+8.083%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#21
L
66-67
66
67
-1
H06/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
64-57
64
57
+7
H08/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
47-70
47
70
-23
H11/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
53-51
53
51
+2
H13/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A16/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
49-60
49
60
-11
A20/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H21/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
60-56
60
56
+4
H24/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
55-53
55
53
+2
A26/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H30/04
NBA
113.1Avg total
56.2Scored
56.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.358.1119.4+3.267%-
Last 30 at home (17)60.154.1114.1+6.071%-
Last 30 away (13)62.963.3126.2-0.462%-
Last 10 (10)56.256.9113.1-0.770%-
Last 5 (5)53.452.4105.8+1.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)56.561.5118.0-5.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)58.658.6117.3+0.065%-
vs Weaker (8)69.155.8124.9+13.475%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.0 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.227.8
53.3%
54.5%55.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.910.0
29.5%
35.8%30.0
🏀 Free throws20.916.9
80.9%
78.1%16.9
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 112.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.924.0
50.1%
54.5%48.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.414.2
38.0%
35.8%42.6
🏀 Free throws28.321.9
77.4%
78.1%21.9
They take 85.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Oct 2022 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLLWLLWLW
Minnesota Timberwolves
LLWLLWWLWL
#10
League position
#17
-0.1
Net rating
-4.2
106.5
Offensive rating
108.0
106.7
Defensive rating
112.2
49.7%
Effective FG%
53.1%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
54.1%
12.0%
Turnover %
13.8%
23.3%
Off. rebound %
19.1%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.33
29.5%
3-point %
38.0%
54.8%
Assist %
62.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence106.5 · 108.0Defence106.7 · 112.2Shooting49.7% · 53.1%3-point %29.5% · 38.0%Ball care12.0% · 13.8%Off. rebounds23.3% · 19.1%Free throws0.24 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/07/22HGolden State Warriors94-70
03/07/22ASacramento Kings64-81
02/07/22HLos Angeles Lakers66-100
30/05/22HBoston Celtics96-100
28/05/22ABoston Celtics111-103
26/05/22HBoston Celtics80-93
24/05/22ABoston Celtics82-102
22/05/22ABoston Celtics109-103
20/05/22HBoston Celtics102-127
18/05/22HBoston Celtics118-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/04/22HMemphis Grizzlies106-114
26/04/22AMemphis Grizzlies109-111
24/04/22HMemphis Grizzlies119-118
21/04/22HMemphis Grizzlies95-104
20/04/22AMemphis Grizzlies96-124
16/04/22AMemphis Grizzlies130-117
13/04/22HLos Angeles Clippers109-104
11/04/22HChicago Bulls120-124
08/04/22HSan Antonio Spurs127-121
06/04/22HWashington Wizards114-132

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

No league table for this competition yet.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat24283128111
Minnesota Timberwolves26382928121
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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