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Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 08 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 104-106
25-33 27-19 28-28 24-26
Position#20
Record29-32
FormWWLWL
Points / game110.2
Allowed / game110.6
vs
Position#7
Record35-29
FormLLWWW
Points / game112.5
Allowed / game109.1
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves
21 Oct 2026
MIA106
MIN131
03 Jan 2026
MIA115
MIN125
07 Mar 2025
MIA104
MIN106
18 Dec 2023
MIA108
MIN112
26 Dec 2022
MIA113
MIN110
12 Mar 2022
MIA104
MIN113
07 May 2021
MIA121
MIN112
26 Feb 2020
MIA126
MIN129
30 Dec 2018
MIA104
MIN113
30 Oct 2017
MIA122
MIN125
17 Mar 2017
MIA123
MIN105
17 Nov 2015
MIA91
MIN103
08 Nov 2014
MIA102
MIN92
04 Apr 2014
MIA121
MIN122
18 Dec 2012
MIA103
MIN92
02 Nov 2010
MIA129
MIN97
23 Feb 2010
MIA88
MIN91
18 Feb 2009
MIA104
MIN111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
101-115
101
115
-14
97avg 104
A13/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
113-118
113
118
-5
100avg 104
A14/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
120-111 OT
120
111
+9
110avg 104
A22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
113-120
113
120
-7
107avg 104
A23/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
86-98
86
98
-12
70avg 104
A25/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
131-109
131
109
+22
139avg 104
H27/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
125-120
125
120
+5
128avg 104
H01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
112-116 OT
112
116
-4
106avg 104
H02/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
106-90
106
90
+16
109avg 104
H04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
107-112
107
112
-5
103avg 104
A06/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-23
28-29
30-31
8-32
22-21
34-34
27-29
30-34
30-19
27-29
27-32
23-27
37-23
28-32
28-30
20-35
22-23
20-27
23-23
21-25
29-28
36-37
42-28
24-16
29-35
39-34
29-23
28-28
27-22
35-23
25-36
18-24
32-24
23-12
26-32
25-22
32-36
27-27
23-23
25-26
222.3Avg total
111.4Scored
110.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (61)110.2110.6220.8-0.448%
Season at home (27)112.7111.0223.7+1.756%
Season away (34)108.2110.2218.4-2.041%
Last 10 (10)111.4110.9222.3+0.540%
Last 5 (5)116.2109.4225.6+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)101.5113.5215.0-12.00%
vs Similar (18)114.4115.3229.8-0.944%
vs Weaker (6)100.5103.0203.5-2.567%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
101-103
101
103
-2
92avg 105
H13/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
116-101
116
101
+15
109avg 105
H14/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
115-121
115
121
-6
98avg 105
A22/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
123-130
123
130
-7
114avg 105
H24/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
131-128 OT
131
128
+3
126avg 105
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
102-111
102
111
-9
90avg 105
A28/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
L
116-117
116
117
-1
105avg 105
A01/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
116-98
116
98
+18
103avg 105
A03/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
126-112
126
112
+14
126avg 105
H05/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
125-110
125
110
+15
118avg 105
A06/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-36
26-15
19-19
32-33
37-24
27-32
33-31
19-14
38-48
29-20
26-30
22-23
23-35
40-26
33-42
27-27
28-32
17-32
35-38
41-19
17-33
30-25
26-26
29-27
40-38
27-18
25-38
24-23
28-34
21-17
34-21
33-26
24-22
33-31
26-27
43-32
39-28
26-30
32-25
28-27
230.2Avg total
117.1Scored
113.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)112.5109.1221.6+3.455%
Season at home (31)112.9108.5221.5+4.455%
Season away (33)112.1109.6221.7+2.555%
Last 10 (10)117.1113.1230.2+4.050%
Last 5 (5)117.0109.6226.6+7.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)118.8122.2241.0-3.440%
vs Similar (10)114.8110.9225.7+3.940%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)116.2105.9222.1+10.380%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -0.7-0.7Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -4.7-4.7Q4: +4.7+4.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -3.2-3.2Q2Q2: +1.3+1.3Q2: +3.0+3.0Q3Q3: -0.7-0.7Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -4.7-4.7Q4: +4.7+4.7
Miami HeatMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
63-52
63
52
+11
A13/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
56-55
56
55
+1
A14/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
57-48
57
48
+9
A22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A23/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A25/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
D
65-65
65
65
+0
H27/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
W
62-45
62
45
+17
H02/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
55-36
55
36
+19
H04/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
59-63
59
63
-4
A06/03
NBA
113.0Avg total
59.2Scored
53.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.554.5110.0+1.053%-
Last 30 at home (12)53.056.8109.8-3.825%-
Last 30 away (18)57.252.9110.1+4.272%-
Last 10 (10)59.253.8113.0+5.460%-
Last 5 (5)61.855.6117.4+6.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)52.752.3105.0+0.350%-
vs Similar (18)57.756.8114.6+0.950%-
vs Weaker (6)51.749.7101.3+2.067%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
50-51
50
51
-1
H13/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
64-56
64
56
+8
H14/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
67-68
67
68
-1
A22/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H24/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
45-64
45
64
-19
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A28/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
67-56
67
56
+11
A01/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
L
49-51
49
51
-2
A03/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
57-53
57
53
+4
H05/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
65-58
65
58
+7
A06/03
NBA
115.0Avg total
57.4Scored
57.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.556.7113.1-0.250%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.958.1116.1-0.247%-
Last 30 away (15)55.055.2110.2-0.253%-
Last 10 (10)57.457.6115.0-0.250%-
Last 5 (5)57.055.2112.2+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)55.261.4116.6-6.240%-
vs Similar (10)57.158.2115.3-1.140%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)56.554.1110.5+2.460%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 111.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.227.9
57.9%
54.3%55.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.912.7
35.4%
35.9%38.1
🏀 Free throws21.617.5
81.0%
77.8%17.5
They take 84.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 116.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.0 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.6 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.926.0
53.2%
54.3%52.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.915.2
34.6%
35.9%45.6
🏀 Free throws23.019.3
83.9%
77.8%19.3
They take 92.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 43.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLWWLLWLL
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWWLLWLLWL
#20
League position
#7
+0.5
Net rating
+3.7
114.2
Offensive rating
114.7
113.7
Defensive rating
111.0
55.8%
Effective FG%
52.6%
55.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
13.5%
Turnover %
10.3%
23.3%
Off. rebound %
22.9%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.4%
3-point %
34.6%
66.3%
Assist %
66.3%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence114.2 · 114.7Defence113.7 · 111.0Shooting55.8% · 52.6%3-point %35.4% · 34.6%Ball care13.5% · 10.3%Off. rebounds23.3% · 22.9%Free throws0.26 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/25ACleveland Cavaliers107-112
04/03/25HWashington Wizards106-90
02/03/25HNew York Knicks112-116 OT
01/03/25HIndiana Pacers125-120
27/02/25HAtlanta Hawks131-109
25/02/25AAtlanta Hawks86-98
23/02/25AMilwaukee Bucks113-120
22/02/25AToronto Raptors120-111 OT
14/02/25ADallas Mavericks113-118
13/02/25AOklahoma City Thunder101-115
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/03/25ACharlotte Hornets125-110
05/03/25HPhiladelphia 76ers126-112
03/03/25APhoenix Suns116-98
01/03/25AUtah Jazz116-117
28/02/25ALos Angeles Lakers102-111
25/02/25AOklahoma City Thunder131-128 OT
24/02/25HOklahoma City Thunder123-130
22/02/25AHouston Rockets115-121
14/02/25HOklahoma City Thunder116-101
13/02/25HMilwaukee Bucks101-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL48%
HomeLWWLW56%
AwayLWLLL41%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games612734
Win %48%56%41%
Points / game110.2112.7108.2
Allowed / game110.6111.0110.2
Point differential-0.4+1.7-2.0
Avg total220.8223.7218.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%37%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (18)40% (5)46% (13)
Overtime %11%11%12%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW55%
HomeWLWLW55%
AwayWLLWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643133
Win %55%55%55%
Points / game112.5112.9112.1
Allowed / game109.1108.5109.6
Point differential+3.4+4.4+2.5
Avg total221.6221.5221.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%35%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won48% (21)42% (12)56% (9)
Overtime %5%3%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers63531084%123.1111.7+11.4
2 Oklahoma City Thunder60491182%119.8107.2+12.7
3 Boston Celtics63451871%117.0108.3+8.7
4 New York Knicks61402166%117.5113.0+4.5
5 Los Angeles Lakers61402166%113.1111.1+2.0
6 Denver Nuggets62402265%121.0115.9+5.1
7 Memphis Grizzlies63392462%122.9116.9+6.0
8 Houston Rockets61372461%113.3109.5+3.8
9 Milwaukee Bucks59342558%115.0112.8+2.3
10 Indiana Pacers61352657%116.6115.2+1.3
11 Golden State Warriors62352756%113.6111.5+2.1
12 Detroit Pistons63352856%114.7113.1+1.6
13 Minnesota Timberwolves64352955%112.5109.1+3.4
14 Los Angeles Clippers62332953%110.9108.9+2.0
15 Sacramento Kings61322952%116.8115.1+1.7
16 Dallas Mavericks63323151%114.7114.0+0.7
17 Miami Heat61293248%110.2110.6-0.4
18 Phoenix Suns62293347%113.8116.0-2.1
19 Orlando Magic63293446%104.4106.0-1.6
20 Atlanta Hawks61283346%117.4120.2-2.8
21 Portland Trail Blazers63283544%110.8114.5-3.7
22 San Antonio Spurs60263443%113.3115.2-1.9
23 Chicago Bulls63253840%116.6120.8-4.2
24 Philadelphia 76ers62214134%109.0114.0-5.0
25 Brooklyn Nets62214134%105.2111.7-6.5
26 Toronto Raptors63214233%110.5116.0-5.5
27 New Orleans Pelicans63174627%110.8118.8-8.0
28 Utah Jazz63154824%112.4119.7-7.3
29 Charlotte Hornets62144823%105.4113.1-7.8
30 Washington Wizards61124920%108.3120.6-12.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat25272824104
Minnesota Timberwolves33192826106
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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