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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 06 Apr 2019
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 111-109
36-35 25-34 29-22 21-18
Position#21
Record36-47
FormLWLLW
Points / game112.5
Allowed / game114.5
vs
Position#17
Record41-43
FormLWWLL
Points / game106.1
Allowed / game106.2
USANBA· Target Center
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Minnesota Timberwolves v Miami Heat
06 Feb 2027
MIN v MIA
upcoming
06 Jan 2026
MIN122
MIA94
10 Nov 2024
MIN94
MIA95
28 Oct 2023
MIN106
MIA90
21 Nov 2022
MIN105
MIA101
24 Nov 2021
MIN113
MIA101
16 Apr 2021
MIN119
MIA111
27 Oct 2019
MIN116
MIA109
10 Jul 2019
MIN90
MIA87
05 Apr 2019
MIN111
MIA109
24 Nov 2017
MIN97
MIA109
06 Feb 2017
MIN113
MIA115
05 Nov 2015
MIN84
MIA96
04 Feb 2015
MIN102
MIA101
07 Dec 2013
MIN82
MIA103
04 Mar 2013
MIN81
MIA97
30 Dec 2011
MIN101
MIA103
01 Apr 2011
MIN92
MIA111
03 Apr 2010
MIN84
MIA97
13 Jan 2009
MIN96
MIA99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#8
L
100-120
100
120
-20
A15/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
102-117
102
117
-15
A18/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#3
L
107-117
107
117
-10
H20/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
106-113
106
113
-7
A21/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
W
112-99
112
99
+13
A24/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#10
L
111-122
111
122
-11
H27/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#3
W
131-130 OT
131
130
+1
H30/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
109-118
109
118
-9
H31/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
122-132
122
132
-10
H02/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
110-108
110
108
+2
A04/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-34
30-30
26-27
19-29
30-26
19-24
29-43
24-24
27-30
20-29
28-32
32-26
25-25
26-29
27-27
28-32
25-25
24-25
35-18
28-31
23-42
32-33
30-25
26-22
27-32
27-36
32-18
29-29
20-38
35-30
26-24
28-26
23-38
41-37
36-22
22-35
32-27
26-31
31-21
21-29
228.6Avg total
111.0Scored
117.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (83)112.5114.5227.0-2.043%
Season at home (40)114.3111.5225.8+2.860%
Season away (43)110.8117.3228.1-6.628%
Last 10 (10)111.0117.6228.6-6.630%
Last 5 (5)116.6122.0238.6-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)113.7121.3235.0-7.621%
vs Similar ◀ (14)114.9117.4232.2-2.543%
vs Weaker (2)109.098.0207.0+11.0100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
93-75
93
75
+18
H17/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
116-107
116
107
+9
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
110-105
110
105
+5
A21/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
87-116
87
116
-29
A23/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
W
113-108
113
108
+5
A23/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
L
99-104
99
104
-5
H26/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
105-99
105
99
+6
H28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
W
100-92
100
92
+8
A30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
105-110
105
110
-5
A01/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
102-112
102
112
-10
H03/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-20
20-19
22-21
32-15
27-25
31-30
28-20
30-32
24-22
38-25
28-31
20-27
32-33
19-30
18-31
18-22
25-27
27-26
26-26
35-29
32-18
19-24
19-34
29-28
26-29
23-30
26-23
30-17
29-33
26-28
24-18
21-13
17-36
30-25
30-27
28-22
31-29
18-24
32-30
21-29
205.8Avg total
103.0Scored
102.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (84)106.1106.2212.3-0.249%
Season at home (43)106.4106.2212.6+0.149%
Season away (41)105.8106.2212.0-0.549%
Last 10 (10)103.0102.8205.8+0.260%
Last 5 (5)102.2103.4205.6-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)108.5120.0228.5-11.517%
vs Similar ◀ (19)103.2100.9204.1+2.253%
vs Weaker (5)110.0108.8218.8+1.260%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: -6.0-6.0Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -2.4-2.4Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +4.3+4.3Q3: -0.8-0.8Q4Q4: -2.6-2.6Q4: +3.0+3.0
Minnesota TimberwolvesMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#8
L
55-64
55
64
-9
A15/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
49-50
49
50
-1
A18/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#3
L
47-59
47
59
-12
H20/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
51-54
51
54
-3
A21/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
L
49-50
49
50
-1
A24/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#10
L
55-75
55
75
-20
H27/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#3
L
54-68
54
68
-14
H30/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
55-68
55
68
-13
H31/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
64-75
64
75
-11
H02/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A04/04
NBA
115.8Avg total
53.7Scored
62.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.360.0117.3-2.733%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.960.1117.1-3.236%-
Last 30 away (16)57.659.9117.4-2.331%-
Last 10 (10)53.762.1115.8-8.40%-
Last 5 (5)57.268.8126.0-11.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)56.061.1117.1-5.121%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)58.160.1118.1-2.036%-
vs Weaker (2)60.551.5112.0+9.0100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#15
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H17/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
62-47
62
47
+15
A21/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A23/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
L
52-53
52
53
-1
A23/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H26/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
49-59
49
59
-10
H28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
L
55-61
55
61
-6
A30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
47-61
47
61
-14
A01/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
49-53
49
53
-4
H03/04
NBA
104.6Avg total
51.3Scored
53.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.754.0108.7+0.743%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.253.4107.6+0.944%-
Last 30 away (14)55.254.7109.9+0.543%-
Last 10 (10)51.353.3104.6-2.030%-
Last 5 (5)50.255.2105.4-5.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)61.556.8118.3+4.767%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)52.052.5104.5-0.542%-
vs Weaker (5)56.856.2113.0+0.620%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 110.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.530.7
49.9%
51.7%61.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.310.1
34.5%
35.4%30.3
🏀 Free throws25.119.1
76.1%
76.6%19.1
They take 90.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.827.7
50.5%
51.7%55.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.110.9
32.0%
35.4%32.7
🏀 Free throws19.814.3
72.2%
76.6%14.3
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Apr 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minnesota Timberwolves
WLLWLWLLLL
Miami Heat
LLWWLWLWWW
#21
League position
#17
-6.0
Net rating
-0.2
106.9
Offensive rating
103.7
112.9
Defensive rating
103.9
50.5%
Effective FG%
49.6%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
48.8%
11.7%
Turnover %
12.0%
21.5%
Off. rebound %
22.7%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.22
34.5%
3-point %
32.0%
60.5%
Assist %
65.8%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence106.9 · 103.7Defence112.9 · 103.9Shooting50.5% · 49.6%3-point %34.5% · 32.0%Ball care11.7% · 12.0%Off. rebounds21.5% · 22.7%Free throws0.28 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)30% · 60%
■ Minnesota Timberwolves   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
04/04/19ADallas Mavericks110-108
02/04/19HPortland Trail Blazers122-132
31/03/19HPhiladelphia 76ers109-118
30/03/19HGolden State Warriors131-130 OT
27/03/19HLos Angeles Clippers111-122
24/03/19AMemphis Grizzlies112-99
21/03/19ACharlotte Hornets106-113
20/03/19HGolden State Warriors107-117
18/03/19AHouston Rockets102-117
15/03/19AUtah Jazz100-120
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/04/19HBoston Celtics102-112
01/04/19ABoston Celtics105-110
30/03/19ANew York Knicks100-92
28/03/19HDallas Mavericks105-99
26/03/19HOrlando Magic99-104
23/03/19AWashington Wizards113-108
23/03/19AMilwaukee Bucks87-116
21/03/19ASan Antonio Spurs110-105
19/03/19AOklahoma City Thunder116-107
17/03/19HCharlotte Hornets93-75

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW43%
HomeLLWLL60%
AwayLLLWW28%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games834043
Win %43%60%28%
Points / game112.5114.3110.8
Allowed / game114.5111.5117.3
Point differential-2.0+2.8-6.6
Avg total227.0225.8228.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+23%32%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (22)58% (12)40% (10)
Overtime %7%12%2%
Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL49%
HomeLWLWL49%
AwayWLWWL49%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844341
Win %49%49%49%
Points / game106.1106.4105.8
Allowed / game106.2106.2106.2
Point differential-0.2+0.1-0.5
Avg total212.3212.6212.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%19%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (27)54% (13)36% (14)
Overtime %1%0%2%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks83622175%118.4108.7+9.7
2 Toronto Raptors84592570%114.4108.3+6.1
3 Denver Nuggets82552767%110.7106.5+4.2
4 Golden State Warriors83552866%117.2111.3+6.0
5 Houston Rockets83542965%113.5109.0+4.5
6 Portland Trail Blazers83533064%114.5110.1+4.4
7 Utah Jazz81513063%111.6105.7+5.9
8 Philadelphia 76ers82513162%115.3112.7+2.6
9 Los Angeles Clippers82503261%114.9113.1+1.8
10 Indiana Pacers83493459%107.7104.1+3.7
11 Oklahoma City Thunder82483459%113.8110.4+3.4
12 Boston Celtics83483558%111.9108.0+3.9
13 San Antonio Spurs85493658%111.5110.0+1.6
14 Detroit Pistons83414249%107.1107.5-0.4
15 Brooklyn Nets83414249%111.6112.4-0.8
16 Orlando Magic84414349%106.5106.1+0.4
17 Miami Heat84414349%106.1106.2-0.2
18 Charlotte Hornets84414349%110.8112.0-1.2
19 Sacramento Kings84404448%113.5115.1-1.6
20 Los Angeles Lakers85384745%111.8113.6-1.8
21 Minnesota Timberwolves83364743%112.5114.5-2.0
22 Washington Wizards84354942%114.1116.6-2.5
23 Memphis Grizzlies83335040%103.0106.2-3.2
24 Dallas Mavericks81324940%108.9110.2-1.3
25 New Orleans Pelicans84325238%115.1117.0-1.9
26 Atlanta Hawks85315436%113.1119.0-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls84246029%105.1112.9-7.9
28 Cleveland Cavaliers83216225%104.7113.7-9.0
29 Phoenix Suns83196423%106.7116.0-9.4
30 New York Knicks83186522%105.1113.8-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minnesota Timberwolves36252921111
Miami Heat35342218109
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