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Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 27 Dec 2022
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 113-110
33-31 26-25 34-30 20-24
Position#10
Record16-17
FormWWWLL
Points / game108.0
Allowed / game109.2
vs
Position#17
Record16-17
FormWWWLL
Points / game114.8
Allowed / game115.7
USANBA· Miami-Dade Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves
21 Oct 2026
MIA106
MIN131
03 Jan 2026
MIA115
MIN125
07 Mar 2025
MIA104
MIN106
18 Dec 2023
MIA108
MIN112
26 Dec 2022
MIA113
MIN110
12 Mar 2022
MIA104
MIN113
07 May 2021
MIA121
MIN112
26 Feb 2020
MIA126
MIN129
30 Dec 2018
MIA104
MIN113
30 Oct 2017
MIA122
MIN125
17 Mar 2017
MIA123
MIN105
17 Nov 2015
MIA91
MIN103
08 Nov 2014
MIA102
MIN92
04 Apr 2014
MIA121
MIN122
18 Dec 2012
MIA103
MIN92
02 Nov 2010
MIA129
MIN97
23 Feb 2010
MIA88
MIN91
18 Feb 2009
MIA104
MIN111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
L
93-101
93
101
-8
87avg 102
A06/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
L
96-116
96
116
-20
88avg 102
H07/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
115-110
115
110
+5
108avg 102
H09/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
111-115
111
115
-4
101avg 102
H10/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
87-82
87
82
+5
80avg 102
A13/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
110-108
110
108
+2
100avg 102
A15/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
111-108
111
108
+3
97avg 102
A16/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
W
111-101
111
101
+10
105avg 102
A17/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
103-113
103
113
-10
95avg 102
H21/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
L
108-111
108
111
-3
93avg 102
H24/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-27
19-31
26-24
16-19
25-20
25-27
23-31
23-38
20-28
36-26
28-33
31-23
29-25
28-34
27-27
27-29
26-19
21-23
20-22
20-18
31-31
33-21
22-32
24-24
29-29
37-23
20-33
25-23
25-28
27-27
28-29
31-17
21-31
36-21
20-36
26-25
28-31
30-25
24-28
26-27
211.0Avg total
104.5Scored
106.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)108.0109.2217.1-1.248%
Season at home (17)109.7110.4220.1-0.653%
Season away (16)106.1107.9214.0-1.844%
Last 10 (10)104.5106.5211.0-2.050%
Last 5 (5)108.6108.2216.8+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)109.3121.0230.3-11.733%
vs Similar ◀ (19)105.6106.7212.4-1.147%
vs Weaker (8)113.0109.4222.4+3.662%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
121-115
121
115
+6
116avg 110
H08/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
W
118-108
118
108
+10
120avg 110
A10/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
L
118-124
118
124
-6
105avg 110
A11/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
L
112-133
112
133
-21
98avg 110
A13/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
L
88-99
88
99
-11
77avg 110
A15/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
112-110
112
110
+2
102avg 110
A17/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
150-126
150
126
+24
157avg 110
H19/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
116-106
116
106
+10
104avg 110
H20/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
L
99-104
99
104
-5
91avg 110
H22/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
109-121
109
121
-12
101avg 110
A24/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-17
28-44
27-29
31-25
28-24
33-22
21-33
36-29
27-32
39-33
26-29
26-30
27-33
32-37
25-36
28-27
21-19
22-19
22-29
23-32
30-28
33-22
25-41
24-19
32-34
39-31
42-32
37-29
21-30
36-14
37-30
22-32
31-29
21-22
22-24
25-29
29-22
27-32
30-34
23-33
228.9Avg total
114.3Scored
114.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (33)114.8115.7230.4-0.948%
Season at home (17)117.0116.8233.8+0.253%
Season away (16)112.4114.5226.9-2.144%
Last 10 (10)114.3114.6228.9-0.350%
Last 5 (5)117.2113.4230.6+3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)119.0122.5241.5-3.550%
vs Similar ◀ (23)113.8115.4229.2-1.748%
vs Weaker (5)115.0114.2229.2+0.840%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -5.7-5.7Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: -1.0-1.0
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: +1.3+1.3Q2Q2: +3.4+3.4Q2: +3.4+3.4Q3Q3: -5.7-5.7Q3: -4.0-4.0Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: -1.0-1.0
Miami HeatMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A06/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
50-47
50
47
+3
H07/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H09/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
57-59
57
59
-2
H10/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A13/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
64-52
64
52
+12
A15/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
66-52
66
52
+14
A16/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
52-55
52
55
-3
A17/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H21/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H24/12
NBA
108.5Avg total
55.8Scored
52.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.055.4111.4+0.657%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.853.1108.9+2.671%-
Last 30 away (16)56.257.4113.6-1.144%-
Last 10 (10)55.852.7108.5+3.170%-
Last 5 (5)59.453.4112.8+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)53.763.0116.7-9.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)55.754.8110.6+0.963%-
vs Weaker (8)57.653.9111.5+3.862%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
63-61
63
61
+2
H08/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
W
61-46
61
46
+15
A10/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
W
66-65
66
65
+1
A11/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
L
59-70
59
70
-11
A13/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
43-38
43
38
+5
A15/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
63-50
63
50
+13
A17/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
71-65
71
65
+6
H19/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
57-44
57
44
+13
H20/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#21
W
52-51
52
51
+1
H22/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
56-54
56
54
+2
A24/12
NBA
113.5Avg total
59.1Scored
54.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.757.6115.3+0.153%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.659.7116.3-3.140%-
Last 30 away (15)58.855.5114.3+3.367%-
Last 10 (10)59.154.4113.5+4.790%-
Last 5 (5)59.852.8112.6+7.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)61.552.0113.5+9.5100%-
vs Similar ◀ (23)56.858.5115.3-1.748%-
vs Weaker (5)60.455.6116.0+4.860%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 104.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.024.1
52.4%
54.5%48.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.213.7
35.9%
35.8%41.1
🏀 Free throws20.015.2
76.0%
78.1%15.2
They take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 114.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.0 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.032.5
57.0%
54.5%65.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.111.1
38.1%
35.8%33.3
🏀 Free throws21.616.0
74.1%
78.1%16.0
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Dec 2022 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWWWWLWLL
Minnesota Timberwolves
LLWWWLLLWW
#10
League position
#17
-2.1
Net rating
-0.3
107.3
Offensive rating
112.4
109.4
Defensive rating
112.7
53.0%
Effective FG%
57.1%
54.9%
Opp. effective FG%
55.3%
12.9%
Turnover %
14.2%
20.2%
Off. rebound %
20.1%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.25
35.9%
3-point %
38.1%
62.7%
Assist %
56.2%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence107.3 · 112.4Defence109.4 · 112.7Shooting53.0% · 57.1%3-point %35.9% · 38.1%Ball care12.9% · 14.2%Off. rebounds20.2% · 20.1%Free throws0.24 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/12/22HIndiana Pacers108-111
21/12/22HChicago Bulls103-113
17/12/22ASan Antonio Spurs111-101
16/12/22AHouston Rockets111-108
15/12/22AOklahoma City Thunder110-108
13/12/22AIndiana Pacers87-82
10/12/22HSan Antonio Spurs111-115
09/12/22HLos Angeles Clippers115-110
07/12/22HDetroit Pistons96-116
06/12/22AMemphis Grizzlies93-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/12/22ABoston Celtics109-121
22/12/22HDallas Mavericks99-104
20/12/22HDallas Mavericks116-106
19/12/22HChicago Bulls150-126
17/12/22AOklahoma City Thunder112-110
15/12/22ALos Angeles Clippers88-99
13/12/22APortland Trail Blazers112-133
11/12/22APortland Trail Blazers118-124
10/12/22AUtah Jazz118-108
08/12/22HIndiana Pacers121-115

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL48%
HomeLWLLL53%
AwayLWWWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %48%53%44%
Points / game108.0109.7106.1
Allowed / game109.2110.4107.9
Point differential-1.2-0.6-1.8
Avg total217.1220.1214.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+9%6%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (16)67% (9)57% (7)
Overtime %9%6%12%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL48%
HomeLWWWL53%
AwayLLLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games331716
Win %48%53%44%
Points / game114.8117.0112.4
Allowed / game115.7116.8114.5
Point differential-0.9+0.2-2.1
Avg total230.4233.8226.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%24%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (6)50% (2)75% (4)
Overtime %3%6%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics34241071%118.7112.4+6.3
2 Milwaukee Bucks33221167%112.6110.1+2.5
3 Denver Nuggets32211166%116.0114.1+1.9
4 Brooklyn Nets34221265%114.4111.3+3.1
5 Cleveland Cavaliers35221363%111.1105.5+5.6
6 New Orleans Pelicans32201262%117.9113.0+4.9
7 Memphis Grizzlies32201262%115.5111.2+4.2
8 Philadelphia 76ers32201262%111.7107.7+4.0
9 Los Angeles Clippers35201557%108.7108.5+0.2
10 Phoenix Suns34191556%115.5111.6+3.9
11 Sacramento Kings31171455%118.1116.2+1.9
12 Utah Jazz35191654%117.0115.9+1.1
13 New York Knicks34181653%114.4112.1+2.4
14 Dallas Mavericks34181653%111.4109.5+1.8
15 Portland Trail Blazers33171652%112.0112.0+0.0
16 Atlanta Hawks33171652%114.6114.9-0.3
17 Indiana Pacers33171652%114.6115.2-0.7
18 Minnesota Timberwolves33161748%114.8115.7-0.9
19 Miami Heat33161748%108.0109.2-1.2
20 Golden State Warriors34161847%116.7117.6-0.9
21 Toronto Raptors33151845%111.4110.8+0.5
22 Chicago Bulls32141844%113.2114.5-1.3
23 Oklahoma City Thunder33141942%115.4116.8-1.5
24 Los Angeles Lakers33132039%115.7118.0-2.3
25 Washington Wizards34132138%111.2113.7-2.5
26 Orlando Magic34132138%110.3113.1-2.9
27 San Antonio Spurs32102231%110.6120.2-9.5
28 Houston Rockets3292328%109.4115.3-5.8
29 Charlotte Hornets3392427%111.3118.1-6.8
30 Detroit Pistons3682822%111.2119.0-7.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat33263420113
Minnesota Timberwolves31253024110
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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