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Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 30 Dec 2018
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 104-113
19-30 35-25 23-31 27-27
Position#17
Record20-20
FormWWWLW
Points / game107.6
Allowed / game107.0
vs
Position#21
Record17-23
FormLLWWL
Points / game111.0
Allowed / game113.0
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves
21 Oct 2026
MIA106
MIN131
10 Oct 2026
MIA124
MIN125
03 Jan 2026
MIA115
MIN125
07 Mar 2025
MIA104
MIN106
18 Dec 2023
MIA108
MIN112
26 Dec 2022
MIA113
MIN110
04 Oct 2022
MIA111
MIN121
12 Mar 2022
MIA104
MIN113
07 May 2021
MIA121
MIN112
26 Feb 2020
MIA126
MIN129
30 Dec 2018
MIA104
MIN113
30 Oct 2017
MIA122
MIN125
17 Mar 2017
MIA123
MIN105
15 Oct 2016
MIA96
MIN101
08 Oct 2016
MIA100
MIN109
17 Nov 2015
MIA91
MIN103
08 Nov 2014
MIA102
MIN92
04 Apr 2014
MIA121
MIN122
16 Jul 2013
MIA71
MIN80
18 Dec 2012
MIA103
MIN92
02 Nov 2010
MIA129
MIN97
23 Feb 2010
MIA88
MIN91
18 Feb 2009
MIA104
MIN111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#10
W
121-98
121
98
+23
A09/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
L
105-108
105
108
-3
A11/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
84-111
84
111
-27
A13/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
W
100-97
100
97
+3
A15/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#25
W
102-96
102
96
+6
A17/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
101-99
101
99
+2
H21/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
94-87
94
87
+7
H23/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
115-91
115
91
+24
A23/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#2
L
104-106
104
106
-2
H27/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
118-94
118
94
+24
H29/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-30
31-32
26-28
30-8
23-27
35-28
25-29
22-24
15-40
18-20
20-32
31-19
29-28
22-21
20-24
29-24
33-28
24-23
28-22
17-23
21-33
32-25
29-18
19-23
21-8
16-30
35-20
22-29
28-17
25-27
37-27
25-20
31-23
27-21
21-37
25-25
29-30
27-22
26-17
36-25
203.1Avg total
104.4Scored
98.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)107.6107.0214.6+0.750%
Season at home (21)106.8106.0212.8+0.852%
Season away (19)108.6108.0216.6+0.647%
Last 10 (10)104.498.7203.1+5.770%
Last 5 (5)106.495.4201.8+11.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)100.0104.7204.7-4.750%
vs Similar ◀ (19)106.6106.9213.5-0.347%
vs Weaker (5)113.4105.2218.6+8.260%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
105-113
105
113
-8
A09/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#3
L
108-116
108
116
-8
A11/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
L
130-141
130
141
-11
A13/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
L
99-107
99
107
-8
A16/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
132-105
132
105
+27
H18/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#18
L
123-129 OT
123
129
-6
H20/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
98-124
98
124
-26
A22/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
114-112
114
112
+2
A24/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
119-94
119
94
+25
A27/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
120-123 OT
120
123
-3
H29/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-30
24-23
29-28
25-32
24-30
33-33
20-28
31-25
31-35
19-28
42-33
38-45
30-28
28-28
24-29
17-22
38-23
36-21
29-33
29-28
26-27
36-26
30-25
26-40
21-29
23-33
27-25
27-37
35-25
18-38
33-17
28-32
29-18
31-19
23-28
36-29
27-42
32-29
30-18
23-23
231.2Avg total
114.8Scored
116.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)111.0113.0224.1-2.042%
Season at home (20)113.0109.5222.5+3.660%
Season away (20)109.0116.5225.6-7.525%
Last 10 (10)114.8116.4231.2-1.630%
Last 5 (5)114.8116.4231.2-1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)105.0111.5216.5-6.536%
vs Similar ◀ (15)115.4113.7229.1+1.747%
vs Weaker (4)107.898.0205.8+9.875%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.0+0.0Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: +1.3+1.3Q3: +2.3+2.3Q4Q4: +3.6+3.6Q4: -3.3-3.3
Miami HeatMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#10
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A09/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A11/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#8
L
33-60
33
60
-27
A13/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#23
W
51-49
51
49
+2
A15/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#25
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A17/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H21/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H23/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
53-44
53
44
+9
A23/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#2
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H27/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H29/12
NBA
103.4Avg total
52.1Scored
51.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.252.7106.8+1.557%-
Last 30 at home (16)53.451.0104.4+2.456%-
Last 30 away (14)55.154.6109.6+0.557%-
Last 10 (10)52.151.3103.4+0.870%-
Last 5 (5)51.447.298.6+4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)48.053.0101.0-5.017%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)54.851.5106.3+3.368%-
vs Weaker (5)59.256.6115.8+2.660%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
51-53
51
53
-2
A09/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#3
L
57-63
57
63
-6
A11/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
L
50-63
50
63
-13
A13/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
58-56
58
56
+2
A16/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
74-44
74
44
+30
H18/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#18
W
62-53
62
53
+9
H20/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
44-62
44
62
-18
A22/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
L
53-63
53
63
-10
A24/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
60-37
60
37
+23
A27/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
59-71
59
71
-12
H29/12
NBA
113.3Avg total
56.8Scored
56.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.855.8111.6+0.143%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.554.2110.7+2.350%-
Last 30 away (14)55.157.6112.6-2.536%-
Last 10 (10)56.856.5113.3+0.340%-
Last 5 (5)55.657.2112.8-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (11)52.257.5109.6-5.327%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)58.756.7115.4+1.947%-
vs Weaker (4)55.247.5102.8+7.875%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 104.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.527.1
50.7%
51.7%54.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.211.8
34.5%
35.4%35.4
🏀 Free throws22.114.8
67.0%
76.6%14.8
They take 87.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 114.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers66.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.833.3
51.4%
51.7%66.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.09.1
33.7%
35.4%27.3
🏀 Free throws27.320.9
76.6%
76.6%20.9
They take 91.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 29% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Dec 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWWWWWLLW
Minnesota Timberwolves
LWWLLWLLLL
#17
League position
#21
+5.9
Net rating
-1.5
107.6
Offensive rating
109.4
101.7
Defensive rating
110.9
51.1%
Effective FG%
51.1%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
54.9%
12.9%
Turnover %
11.5%
26.7%
Off. rebound %
23.2%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.5%
3-point %
33.7%
64.8%
Assist %
62.7%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence107.6 · 109.4Defence101.7 · 110.9Shooting51.1% · 51.1%3-point %34.5% · 33.7%Ball care12.9% · 11.5%Off. rebounds26.7% · 23.2%Free throws0.25 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 30%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/18HCleveland Cavaliers118-94
27/12/18HToronto Raptors104-106
23/12/18AOrlando Magic115-91
23/12/18HMilwaukee Bucks94-87
21/12/18HHouston Rockets101-99
17/12/18ANew Orleans Pelicans102-96
15/12/18AMemphis Grizzlies100-97
13/12/18AUtah Jazz84-111
11/12/18ALos Angeles Lakers105-108
09/12/18ALos Angeles Clippers121-98
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/18HAtlanta Hawks120-123 OT
27/12/18AChicago Bulls119-94
24/12/18AOklahoma City Thunder114-112
22/12/18ASan Antonio Spurs98-124
20/12/18HDetroit Pistons123-129 OT
18/12/18HSacramento Kings132-105
16/12/18APhoenix Suns99-107
13/12/18ASacramento Kings130-141
11/12/18AGolden State Warriors108-116
09/12/18APortland Trail Blazers105-113

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW50%
HomeLWWLW52%
AwayLLWWW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games402119
Win %50%52%47%
Points / game107.6106.8108.6
Allowed / game107.0106.0108.0
Point differential+0.7+0.8+0.6
Avg total214.6212.8216.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%14%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (14)57% (7)43% (7)
Overtime %2%0%5%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL42%
HomeWWWLL60%
AwayLLLWW25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games402020
Win %42%60%25%
Points / game111.0113.0109.0
Allowed / game113.0109.5116.5
Point differential-1.9+3.6-7.5
Avg total224.1222.5225.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%35%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)50% (4)40% (5)
Overtime %5%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks39281172%117.7107.8+9.8
2 Toronto Raptors41291271%113.6107.4+6.2
3 Denver Nuggets38261268%109.9104.8+5.1
4 Oklahoma City Thunder38251366%111.7105.3+6.5
5 Indiana Pacers40261465%106.9101.2+5.8
6 Philadelphia 76ers39251464%114.7111.8+2.9
7 Los Angeles Clippers39241562%115.7113.4+2.3
8 Golden State Warriors42251760%115.0111.6+3.4
9 Houston Rockets39231659%110.3108.2+2.1
10 Boston Celtics39221756%110.7105.8+4.9
11 Portland Trail Blazers41231856%111.0110.5+0.6
12 San Antonio Spurs42231955%110.9108.4+2.5
13 Los Angeles Lakers42231955%113.0111.7+1.4
14 Utah Jazz40211952%108.4105.1+3.4
15 Charlotte Hornets40211952%113.5111.1+2.4
16 Miami Heat40202050%107.6107.0+0.7
17 Memphis Grizzlies40202050%102.4103.5-1.1
18 Sacramento Kings40202050%114.1117.2-3.0
19 Detroit Pistons39182146%107.3109.1-1.7
20 Dallas Mavericks37172046%111.4111.0+0.4
21 Brooklyn Nets42192345%110.0111.6-1.6
22 Orlando Magic39172244%102.8106.2-3.4
23 Minnesota Timberwolves40172342%111.0113.0-1.9
24 Washington Wizards41172441%112.7116.6-3.9
25 New Orleans Pelicans42162638%115.6116.4-0.8
26 Atlanta Hawks40132732%109.9117.8-7.9
27 Chicago Bulls41122929%100.9109.2-8.3
28 New York Knicks42123029%107.6115.1-7.5
29 Cleveland Cavaliers41103124%102.7111.1-8.4
30 Phoenix Suns41103124%104.7113.7-9.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat19352327104
Minnesota Timberwolves30253127113
← all games of the day
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