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Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 19 Dec 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 108-112
33-22 33-32 17-23 25-35
Position#18
Record15-11
FormLWWLW
Points / game113.0
Allowed / game112.0
vs
Position#4
Record19-5
FormWWLWW
Points / game113.6
Allowed / game105.8
USANBA· Kaseya Center (Miami)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Minnesota Timberwolves
21 Oct 2026
MIA106
MIN131
03 Jan 2026
MIA115
MIN125
07 Mar 2025
MIA104
MIN106
18 Dec 2023
MIA108
MIN112
26 Dec 2022
MIA113
MIN110
12 Mar 2022
MIA104
MIN113
07 May 2021
MIA121
MIN112
26 Feb 2020
MIA126
MIN129
30 Dec 2018
MIA104
MIN113
30 Oct 2017
MIA122
MIN125
17 Mar 2017
MIA123
MIN105
17 Nov 2015
MIA91
MIN103
08 Nov 2014
MIA102
MIN92
04 Apr 2014
MIA121
MIN122
18 Dec 2012
MIA103
MIN92
02 Nov 2010
MIA129
MIN97
23 Feb 2010
MIA88
MIN91
18 Feb 2009
MIA104
MIN111
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
97-112
97
112
-15
89avg 102
A25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
L
124-131
124
131
-7
114avg 102
H29/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
142-132
142
132
+10
140avg 102
H01/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
129-144
129
144
-15
118avg 102
H03/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
112-103
112
103
+9
110avg 102
A07/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
99-111
99
111
-12
86avg 102
H09/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
116-114
116
114
+2
117avg 102
A12/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
115-104
115
104
+11
115avg 102
H14/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
L
116-124
116
124
-8
111avg 102
H15/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
118-116
118
116
+2
108avg 102
H17/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-26
31-37
23-27
21-22
22-31
40-28
35-34
27-38
33-38
31-35
33-27
45-32
31-25
34-40
33-41
31-38
37-32
27-34
23-18
25-19
25-17
27-36
23-35
24-23
29-24
30-26
30-27
27-37
22-23
34-22
35-25
24-34
22-36
34-24
32-33
28-31
36-24
22-33
33-23
27-36
235.9Avg total
116.8Scored
119.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (26)113.0112.0225.0+1.058%
Season at home (12)116.8117.4234.2-0.658%
Season away (14)109.7107.4217.1+2.457%
Last 10 (10)116.8119.1235.9-2.350%
Last 5 (5)112.8113.8226.6-1.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)93.6104.4198.0-10.80%
vs Similar (16)114.6114.4228.9+0.244%
vs Weaker (9)112.3105.2217.6+7.1100%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
111-124
111
124
-13
107avg 108
H25/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
119-97
119
97
+22
120avg 108
A26/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
106-103
106
103
+3
100avg 108
H29/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
101-90
101
90
+11
94avg 108
H01/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
123-117
123
117
+6
118avg 108
A02/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
102-94
102
94
+8
96avg 108
H07/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
127-103
127
103
+24
130avg 108
A09/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
107-121
107
121
-14
99avg 108
A12/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
119-101
119
101
+18
115avg 108
A15/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
127-109
127
109
+18
126avg 108
H17/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-38
33-32
15-22
32-32
31-26
29-17
30-23
29-31
19-29
34-32
23-17
30-25
20-23
29-24
35-19
17-24
30-23
32-36
26-28
35-30
25-22
21-31
25-18
31-23
33-31
27-24
38-24
29-24
29-29
23-30
34-31
21-31
26-30
33-30
28-22
32-19
23-20
34-35
38-23
32-31
220.1Avg total
114.2Scored
105.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)113.6105.8219.4+7.879%
Season at home (12)112.6100.2212.8+12.392%
Season away (12)114.6111.4226.0+3.267%
Last 10 (10)114.2105.9220.1+8.380%
Last 5 (5)116.4105.6222.0+10.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)106.8113.3220.2-6.533%
vs Similar (13)115.1106.3221.4+8.885%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)112.4104.0216.4+8.473%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -0.5-0.5Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: +6.5+6.5Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +1.8+1.8
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -0.5-0.5Q2: +0.4+0.4Q3Q3: +1.0+1.0Q3: +6.5+6.5Q4Q4: -3.1-3.1Q4: +1.8+1.8
Miami HeatMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
53-63
53
63
-10
A25/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
W
62-59
62
59
+3
H29/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
64-73
64
73
-9
H01/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
D
65-65
65
65
+0
H03/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A07/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H09/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A12/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
56-45
56
45
+11
H14/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H15/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
58-57
58
57
+1
H17/12
NBA
118.0Avg total
58.9Scored
59.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.853.7110.4+3.157%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.555.8114.2+2.762%-
Last 30 away (17)55.552.1107.5+3.453%-
Last 10 (10)58.959.1118.0-0.240%-
Last 5 (5)56.253.0109.2+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)50.052.2102.2-2.220%-
vs Similar (16)58.656.2114.8+2.356%-
vs Weaker (9)57.349.9107.2+7.478%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
64-70
64
70
-6
H25/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
60-43
60
43
+17
A26/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
53-61
53
61
-8
H29/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
49-47
49
47
+2
H01/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
62-59
62
59
+3
A02/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
L
46-53
46
53
-7
H07/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
60-55
60
55
+5
A09/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
52-59
52
59
-7
A12/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
59-60
59
60
-1
A15/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
57-55
57
55
+2
H17/12
NBA
112.4Avg total
56.2Scored
56.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.055.2111.3+0.850%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.153.1109.2+2.960%-
Last 30 away (15)56.057.3113.3-1.340%-
Last 10 (10)56.256.2112.4+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)54.856.4111.2-1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)49.255.8105.0-6.70%-
vs Similar (13)57.655.8113.4+1.854%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)57.954.3112.2+3.673%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 116.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.328.6
53.7%
54.4%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.413.2
40.7%
36.3%39.6
🏀 Free throws25.020.0
80.0%
78.2%20.0
They take 85.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 114.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.326.9
52.4%
54.4%53.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.113.7
40.2%
36.3%41.1
🏀 Free throws23.419.3
82.5%
78.2%19.3
They take 85.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Dec 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWWLWLWLL
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWLWWWWWWL
#18
League position
#4
-2.3
Net rating
+8.3
117.4
Offensive rating
114.3
119.7
Defensive rating
106.0
56.5%
Effective FG%
55.6%
58.9%
Opp. effective FG%
50.1%
12.4%
Turnover %
14.2%
22.9%
Off. rebound %
25.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.27
40.7%
3-point %
40.2%
66.0%
Assist %
65.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence117.4 · 114.3Defence119.7 · 106.0Shooting56.5% · 55.6%3-point %40.7% · 40.2%Ball care12.4% · 14.2%Off. rebounds22.9% · 25.8%Free throws0.29 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/23HChicago Bulls118-116
15/12/23HChicago Bulls116-124
14/12/23HCharlotte Hornets115-104
12/12/23ACharlotte Hornets116-114
09/12/23HCleveland Cavaliers99-111
07/12/23AToronto Raptors112-103
03/12/23HIndiana Pacers129-144
01/12/23HIndiana Pacers142-132
29/11/23HMilwaukee Bucks124-131
25/11/23ABrooklyn Nets97-112
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/12/23HIndiana Pacers127-109
15/12/23ADallas Mavericks119-101
12/12/23ANew Orleans Pelicans107-121
09/12/23AMemphis Grizzlies127-103
07/12/23HSan Antonio Spurs102-94
02/12/23ACharlotte Hornets123-117
01/12/23HUtah Jazz101-90
29/11/23HOklahoma City Thunder106-103
26/11/23AMemphis Grizzlies119-97
25/11/23HSacramento Kings111-124

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW58%
HomeLLWLW58%
AwayWLLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games261214
Win %58%58%57%
Points / game113.0116.8109.7
Allowed / game112.0117.4107.4
Point differential+1.0-0.6+2.4
Avg total225.0234.2217.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%17%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (8)75% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW79%
HomeLWWWW92%
AwayWWWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241212
Win %79%92%67%
Points / game113.6112.6114.6
Allowed / game105.8100.2111.4
Point differential+7.8+12.3+3.2
Avg total219.4212.8226.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%67%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won80% (5)100% (2)67% (3)
Overtime %4%8%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics2420483%117.9108.0+9.9
2 Minnesota Timberwolves2419579%113.6105.8+7.8
3 Milwaukee Bucks2418675%123.7118.8+5.0
4 Philadelphia 76ers2618869%122.2110.9+11.3
5 Oklahoma City Thunder2416867%120.4113.6+6.8
6 Sacramento Kings2315865%117.1116.1+1.0
7 Orlando Magic2516964%113.2109.9+3.4
8 Dallas Mavericks2516964%119.9117.1+2.8
9 Denver Nuggets27171063%114.7110.8+3.9
10 Los Angeles Clippers26161062%117.0110.7+6.3
11 New Orleans Pelicans25151060%116.6112.9+3.7
12 New York Knicks24141058%114.2110.4+3.8
13 Miami Heat26151158%113.0112.0+1.0
14 Phoenix Suns25141156%115.8114.3+1.4
15 Cleveland Cavaliers27151256%112.0111.9+0.1
16 Houston Rockets24131154%110.7107.3+3.4
17 Los Angeles Lakers24131154%113.5114.9-1.4
18 Brooklyn Nets25131252%116.4114.7+1.7
19 Indiana Pacers23111248%127.6128.0-0.5
20 Golden State Warriors26121446%115.9115.7+0.2
21 Atlanta Hawks25101540%122.4122.7-0.2
22 Toronto Raptors25101540%112.5114.8-2.3
23 Chicago Bulls28111739%109.9113.3-3.4
24 Utah Jazz2691735%111.7120.0-8.3
25 Charlotte Hornets2471729%111.5121.0-9.5
26 Memphis Grizzlies2461825%106.0112.3-6.3
27 Portland Trail Blazers2561924%107.6114.6-6.9
28 Washington Wizards2542116%116.4126.2-9.8
29 San Antonio Spurs2542116%110.6122.2-11.6
30 Detroit Pistons262248%108.3120.4-12.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat33331725108
Minnesota Timberwolves22322335112
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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