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Pistoia vs Varese Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 19 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 18:00
Final 111-96
28-28 17-31 36-14 30-23
Position#16
Record3-12
FormLLLLL
Points / game81.6
Allowed / game87.9
Pistoia 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#12
Record6-9
FormWLWWW
Points / game89.3
Allowed / game95.9
ItalyLega ARound 16· PalaCarrara
Domestic2024-25
Meetings · Pistoia v Varese
19 Jan 2025
PIS111
VAR96
05 May 2024
PIS78
VAR96
17 Apr 2020
PIS v VAR
upcoming
06 Jan 2019
PIS71
VAR65
04 Mar 2018
PIS74
VAR65
30 Oct 2016
PIS97
VAR64
13 Dec 2015
PIS67
VAR65
03 May 2015
PIS87
VAR103
08 Dec 2013
PIS89
VAR76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pistoia winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Varese winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#7
W
73-70
73
70
+3
66avg 71
H03/11
Lega A
Sassari
#10
L
75-77
75
77
-2
70avg 71
A10/11
Lega A
Trento
#4
L
88-92
88
92
-4
78avg 71
H17/11
Lega A
Treviso
#11
L
88-91
88
91
-3
70avg 71
A30/11
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
88-94
88
94
-6
79avg 71
H07/12
Lega A
Scafati
#15
L
102-107 OT
102
107
-5
96avg 71
A14/12
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
89-93
89
93
-4
81avg 71
H22/12
Lega A
Brescia
#2
L
83-90
83
90
-7
77avg 71
A29/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
82-115
82
115
-33
69avg 71
H05/01
Lega A
Trieste
#6
L
75-80
75
80
-5
66avg 71
A12/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
15-16
23-14
19-16
21-15
16-14
18-32
20-16
21-22
27-23
24-27
16-20
25-18
17-18
18-21
28-34
22-21
13-29
25-19
28-25
22-22
23-16
24-28
14-17
26-28
19-23
25-23
19-19
14-29
27-22
24-24
18-15
19-27
25-25
21-35
17-28
21-22
15-25
18-17
21-16
175.2Avg total
84.3Scored
90.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)81.687.9169.5-6.320%
Season at home (7)81.789.0170.7-7.329%
Season away (8)81.587.0168.5-5.512%
Last 10 (10)84.390.9175.2-6.610%
Last 5 (5)86.297.0183.2-10.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)78.885.5164.3-6.830%
vs Similar ◀ (9)90.392.1182.4-1.833%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Trieste
#6
L
81-107
81
107
-26
66avg 80
A03/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
104-95
104
95
+9
100avg 80
H10/11
Lega A
Scafati
#15
L
85-94
85
94
-9
73avg 80
A16/11
Lega A
Venezia
#8
L
77-86
77
86
-9
65avg 80
H01/12
Lega A
Cremona
#13
L
60-78
60
78
-18
51avg 80
A08/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
94-92
94
92
+2
87avg 80
H15/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
80-97
80
97
-17
68avg 80
A22/12
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#14
W
89-86
89
86
+3
86avg 80
H28/12
Lega A
Sassari
#10
W
86-81
86
81
+5
84avg 80
A05/01
Lega A
Treviso
#11
W
92-89
92
89
+3
88avg 80
H12/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-27
17-23
21-24
28-33
24-22
27-22
25-30
28-21
25-27
25-22
21-18
14-27
27-21
12-27
21-20
17-18
14-17
18-18
8-23
20-20
25-19
29-24
18-22
22-27
17-22
24-26
21-28
18-21
22-12
27-27
19-29
21-18
26-30
20-13
18-12
22-26
25-18
31-25
17-29
19-17
175.3Avg total
84.8Scored
90.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)89.395.9185.1-6.640%
Season at home (8)94.194.6188.8-0.562%
Season away (7)83.797.3181.0-13.614%
Last 10 (10)84.890.5175.3-5.750%
Last 5 (5)88.289.0177.2-0.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)87.595.7183.1-8.233%
vs Similar ◀ (14)89.886.9176.7+2.957%
vs Weaker (1)91.080.0171.0+11.0100%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -4.6-4.6Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -1.9-1.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -2.1-2.1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.3+0.3Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -4.6-4.6Q4Q4: -0.6-0.6Q4: -1.9-1.9
PistoiaVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#7
L
31-40
31
40
-9
H03/11
Lega A
Sassari
#10
W
37-29
37
29
+8
A10/11
Lega A
Trento
#4
W
48-45
48
45
+3
H17/11
Lega A
Treviso
#11
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A30/11
Lega A
Trapani
#3
L
35-50
35
50
-15
H07/12
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
45-38
45
38
+7
A14/12
Lega A
Tortona
#9
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H22/12
Lega A
Brescia
#2
L
41-51
41
51
-10
A29/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
L
44-52
44
52
-8
H05/01
Lega A
Trieste
#6
L
36-47
36
47
-11
A12/01
Lega A
84.3Avg total
40.4Scored
43.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.643.983.5-4.333%-
Last 30 at home (13)41.245.887.0-4.723%-
Last 30 away (17)38.542.480.9-3.941%-
Last 10 (10)40.443.984.3-3.540%-
Last 5 (5)42.247.890.0-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (20)37.943.581.4-5.635%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)44.145.689.7-1.433%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Trieste
#6
L
32-50
32
50
-18
A03/11
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
W
51-44
51
44
+7
H10/11
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
50-49
50
49
+1
A16/11
Lega A
Venezia
#8
L
39-48
39
48
-9
H01/12
Lega A
Cremona
#13
L
32-35
32
35
-3
A08/12
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#5
W
54-43
54
43
+11
H15/12
Lega A
Reggiana
#7
L
41-48
41
48
-7
A22/12
Lega A
Basket Napoli
#14
W
49-39
49
39
+10
H28/12
Lega A
Sassari
#10
W
46-43
46
43
+3
A05/01
Lega A
Treviso
#11
W
56-43
56
43
+13
H12/01
Lega A
89.2Avg total
45.0Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.445.592.0+0.957%-
Last 30 at home (15)49.345.194.3+4.273%-
Last 30 away (15)43.646.089.6-2.440%-
Last 10 (10)45.044.289.2+0.860%-
Last 5 (5)49.243.292.4+6.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (15)47.447.995.3-0.560%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)45.443.188.5+2.250%-
vs Weaker (1)47.043.090.0+4.0100%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 83.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers42.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.8 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.421.0
48.4%
52.9%42.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.48.6
36.8%
35.8%25.8
🏀 Free throws20.515.7
76.6%
76.8%15.7
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 84.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.816.0
50.3%
52.9%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.012.3
35.1%
35.8%36.9
🏀 Free throws19.515.1
77.4%
76.8%15.1
They take 66.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 52% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Pistoia
LLLLLLLLLW
Varese
WWWLWLLLWL
#16
League position
#12
-8.0
Net rating
-7.4
104.7
Offensive rating
107.3
112.7
Defensive rating
114.7
50.7%
Effective FG%
51.6%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
15.5%
Turnover %
16.1%
23.7%
Off. rebound %
24.6%
0.31
Free-throw rate
0.29
36.8%
3-point %
35.1%
51.7%
Assist %
60.8%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence104.7 · 107.3Defence112.7 · 114.7Shooting50.7% · 51.6%3-point %36.8% · 35.1%Ball care15.5% · 16.1%Off. rebounds23.7% · 24.6%Free throws0.31 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)10% · 50%
■ Pistoia   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Pistoia wins
7
Varese wins
DateGameScore
27/10/24Varese v Pistoia102-95
05/05/24Pistoia v Varese78-96
04/10/23Varese v Pistoia83-82
26/12/19Varese v Pistoia91-60
05/05/19Varese v Pistoia98-70
06/01/19Pistoia v Varese71-65
04/03/18Pistoia v Varese74-65
29/10/17Varese v Pistoia81-73
27/02/17Varese v Pistoia75-70
30/10/16Pistoia v Varese97-64
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/25ATrieste75-80
05/01/25HOlimpia Milano82-115
29/12/24ABrescia83-90
22/12/24HTortona89-93
14/12/24AScafati102-107 OT
07/12/24HTrapani88-94
30/11/24ATreviso88-91
17/11/24HTrento88-92
10/11/24ASassari75-77
03/11/24HReggiana73-70
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/25HTreviso92-89
05/01/25ASassari86-81
28/12/24HBasket Napoli89-86
22/12/24AReggiana80-97
15/12/24HOlimpia Milano94-92
08/12/24ACremona60-78
01/12/24HVenezia77-86
16/11/24AScafati85-94
10/11/24HVirtus Bologna104-95
03/11/24ATrieste81-107

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Pistoia
Lega A 2024-25
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL20%
HomeWLLLL29%
AwayLLLLL12%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1578
Win %20%29%12%
Points / game81.681.781.5
Allowed / game87.989.087.0
Point differential-6.3-7.3-5.5
Avg total169.5170.7168.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (8)33% (3)20% (5)
Overtime %7%0%12%
Varese
Lega A 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW40%
HomeWLWWW62%
AwayLLLLW14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1587
Win %40%62%14%
Points / game89.394.183.7
Allowed / game95.994.697.3
Point differential-6.6-0.5-13.6
Avg total185.1188.8181.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+0%0%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (4)100% (3)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Trapani1612475%92.784.1+8.6
2 Trento1612475%89.583.4+6.1
3 Brescia1612475%90.086.2+3.8
4 Virtus Bologna1511473%85.579.9+5.5
5 Olimpia Milano1610662%88.685.8+2.8
6 Tortona1610662%88.285.7+2.6
7 Trieste1610662%86.984.3+2.6
8 Reggiana169756%80.779.8+0.9
9 Venezia168850%78.577.0+1.5
10 Treviso167944%86.087.8-1.8
11 Varese156940%89.395.9-6.6
12 Sassari1661038%81.484.7-3.3
13 Scafati1641225%86.593.9-7.4
14 Cremona1531220%76.981.1-4.3
15 Pistoia1531220%81.687.9-6.3
16 Basket Napoli1631319%82.387.7-5.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Pistoia28173630111
Varese2831142396
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