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Varese vs Pistoia Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Oct 2023
Tip-off: 17:30
Final 83-82
27-24 17-26 18-23 21-9
Position#12
Record-
FormLWLWL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Pistoia
Italy
Position#10
Record-
FormWWWLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
ItalyLega ARound 1· Palasport Lino Oldrini
Domestic2023-24
Meetings · Varese v Pistoia
27 Oct 2024
VAR102
PIS95
04 Oct 2023
VAR83
PIS82
26 Dec 2019
VAR91
PIS60
05 May 2019
VAR98
PIS70
29 Oct 2017
VAR81
PIS73
27 Feb 2017
VAR75
PIS70
03 Apr 2016
VAR91
PIS78
04 Jan 2015
VAR67
PIS71
23 Mar 2014
VAR84
PIS73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pistoia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Verona
#16
W
98-94
98
94
+4
97avg 83
H26/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
97-95
97
95
+2
91avg 83
A02/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
L
81-85
81
85
-4
69avg 83
H08/04
Lega A
Trieste
#15
W
83-80
83
80
+3
72avg 83
A16/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
W
93-86
93
86
+7
93avg 83
H19/04
Lega A
Venezia
#6
L
81-92
81
92
-11
no box
A23/04
Lega A
Scafati
#11
W
95-81
95
81
+14
98avg 83
H30/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
82-98
82
98
-16
69avg 83
A07/05
Lega A
FMP Beograd
#41
W
73-71
73
71
+2
68avg 83
A27/09
Champions League
Cholet
#14
L
88-96
88
96
-8
86avg 83
A29/09
Champions League
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
15-27
28-22
30-27
25-18
28-21
20-30
24-22
25-22
14-29
26-20
15-17
26-19
17-24
21-19
23-22
22-15
20-27
25-24
30-12
18-23
18-23
18-19
17-21
28-29
32-16
14-21
23-20
26-24
24-23
15-20
22-27
21-28
23-21
12-18
14-21
24-11
22-25
22-24
34-23
10-24
174.9Avg total
87.1Scored
87.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)87.187.8174.9-0.760%
Last 5 (5)83.887.6171.4-3.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)85.297.2182.5-12.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)88.289.3177.5-1.150%
vs Weaker (10)97.791.6189.3+6.190%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Assigeco Piacenza
#15
W
93-81
93
81
+12
no box
A20/05
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
L
73-74
73
74
-1
no box
A27/05
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
L
68-82
68
82
-14
no box
A29/05
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
W
73-69
73
69
+4
no box
H01/06
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
W
80-77
80
77
+3
no box
H03/06
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
W
75-67
75
67
+8
no box
A06/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
W
67-61
67
61
+6
no box
H10/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
W
69-62
69
62
+7
no box
H12/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
67-78
67
78
-11
no box
A15/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
W
73-61
73
61
+12
no box
A17/06
Serie A2
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-23
19-22
25-19
24-17
19-17
20-14
10-18
24-25
24-20
9-25
23-24
12-13
25-19
12-14
15-21
21-15
25-15
21-22
12-15
22-25
14-15
15-24
26-18
20-10
18-21
19-8
11-16
19-16
11-16
18-13
24-17
16-16
25-28
15-21
19-12
8-17
20-14
21-15
14-16
18-16
145.0Avg total
73.8Scored
71.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)73.871.2145.0+2.670%
Last 5 (5)70.265.8136.0+4.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (17)69.872.1141.9-2.453%
vs Weaker (13)83.273.9157.1+9.277%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -2.3-2.3Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.4+1.4
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: -2.3-2.3Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -1.6-1.6Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +0.3+0.3Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.4+1.4
VaresePistoia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Verona
#16
L
43-49
43
49
-6
H26/03
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
48-51
48
51
-3
A02/04
Lega A
Reggiana
#14
L
40-49
40
49
-9
H08/04
Lega A
Trieste
#15
L
38-43
38
43
-5
A16/04
Lega A
Brindisi
#9
L
45-51
45
51
-6
H19/04
Lega A
Venezia
#6
L
36-42
36
42
-6
A23/04
Lega A
Scafati
#11
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H30/04
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#2
L
39-43
39
43
-4
A07/05
Lega A
FMP Beograd
#41
L
35-39
35
39
-4
A27/09
Champions League
Cholet
#14
L
44-49
44
49
-5
A29/09
Champions League
86.7Avg total
41.4Scored
45.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.247.092.2-1.737%-
Last 30 at home (13)45.945.391.2+0.654%-
Last 30 away (17)44.748.292.9-3.524%-
Last 10 (10)41.445.386.7-3.910%-
Last 5 (5)40.042.082.0-2.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)40.850.291.0-9.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)45.744.990.6+0.850%-
vs Weaker (10)48.449.698.0-1.240%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Assigeco Piacenza
#15
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A20/05
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
W
39-31
39
31
+8
A27/05
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
L
33-45
33
45
-12
A29/05
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
W
37-33
37
33
+4
H01/06
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
W
46-37
46
37
+9
H03/06
Serie A2
Cantu
#4
L
29-39
29
39
-10
A06/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
W
37-29
37
29
+8
H10/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
D
29-29
29
29
+0
H12/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A15/06
Serie A2
Basket Torino
#7
W
41-29
41
29
+12
A17/06
Serie A2
74.1Avg total
37.5Scored
36.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)38.738.377.0+0.347%-
Last 30 at home (14)39.134.873.9+4.464%-
Last 30 away (16)38.241.479.7-3.231%-
Last 10 (10)37.536.674.1+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)35.235.070.2+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (17)36.837.073.8-0.247%-
vs Weaker (13)41.240.181.2+1.146%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 85.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀41%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.8 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.117.4
54.2%
53.1%34.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.912.4
37.7%
35.7%37.2
🏀 Free throws17.713.8
78.0%
76.3%13.8
They take 65.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 75.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 81.5 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.518.5
48.1%
53.1%37.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.67.2
28.1%
35.7%21.6
🏀 Free throws21.916.4
74.9%
76.3%16.4
They take 64.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Oct 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLWLWWLWW
Pistoia
WLWWWWWLLW
#12
League position
#10
-0.9
Net rating
-9.3
109.9
Offensive rating
107.0
110.8
Defensive rating
116.3
55.4%
Effective FG%
45.7%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
55.9%
16.9%
Turnover %
15.6%
21.9%
Off. rebound %
34.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.34
37.7%
3-point %
28.1%
64.4%
Assist %
49.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence109.9 · 107.0Defence110.8 · 116.3Shooting55.4% · 45.7%3-point %37.7% · 28.1%Ball care16.9% · 15.6%Off. rebounds21.9% · 34.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Varese   ■ Pistoia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Varese wins
4
Pistoia wins
DateGameScore
26/12/19Varese v Pistoia91-60
05/05/19Varese v Pistoia98-70
06/01/19Pistoia v Varese71-65
04/03/18Pistoia v Varese74-65
29/10/17Varese v Pistoia81-73
27/02/17Varese v Pistoia75-70
30/10/16Pistoia v Varese97-64
03/04/16Varese v Pistoia91-78
13/12/15Pistoia v Varese67-65
03/05/15Pistoia v Varese87-103
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/09/23ACholet88-96
27/09/23AFMP Beograd73-71
07/05/23AVirtus Bologna82-98
30/04/23HScafati95-81
23/04/23AVenezia81-92
19/04/23HBrindisi93-86
16/04/23ATrieste83-80
08/04/23HReggiana81-85
02/04/23ATreviso97-95
26/03/23HVerona98-94
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/06/23ABasket Torino73-61
15/06/23ABasket Torino67-78
12/06/23HBasket Torino69-62
10/06/23HBasket Torino67-61
06/06/23ACantu75-67
03/06/23HCantu80-77
01/06/23HCantu73-69
29/05/23ACantu68-82
27/05/23ACantu73-74
20/05/23AAssigeco Piacenza93-81

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Pistoia
Lega A 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Basket Napoli110100%111.090.0+21.0
2 Venezia110100%76.060.0+16.0
3 Trento110100%91.084.0+7.0
4 Olimpia Milano110100%86.080.0+6.0
5 Virtus Bologna110100%81.075.0+6.0
6 Brescia110100%81.079.0+2.0
7 Pesaro1010%79.081.0-2.0
8 Scafati1010%75.081.0-6.0
9 Treviso1010%80.086.0-6.0
10 Cremona1010%84.091.0-7.0
11 Tortona1010%60.076.0-16.0
12 Sassari1010%90.0111.0-21.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2717182183
Pistoia242623982
← all games of the day
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