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Varese vs Pistoia Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 26 Dec 2019
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 91-60
26-14 18-19 24-15 23-12
Position#10
Record6-7
FormLWLWL
Points / game81.5
Allowed / game80.0
Varese 🏆
Italy
vs
Position#16
Record5-9
FormLWLWW
Points / game75.4
Allowed / game82.6
ItalyLega ARound 15
Domestic2019-20
Meetings · Varese v Pistoia
27 Oct 2024
VAR102
PIS95
04 Oct 2023
VAR83
PIS82
26 Dec 2019
VAR91
PIS60
05 May 2019
VAR98
PIS70
29 Oct 2017
VAR81
PIS73
27 Feb 2017
VAR75
PIS70
03 Apr 2016
VAR91
PIS78
04 Jan 2015
VAR67
PIS71
23 Mar 2014
VAR84
PIS73
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Pistoia winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
80-87
80
87
-7
66avg 99
A19/10
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
102-78
102
78
+24
no box
H27/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
69-93
69
93
-24
no box
A03/11
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
74-91
74
91
-17
58avg 99
A10/11
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
93-91 OT
93
91
+2
no box
H17/11
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
L
74-81
74
81
-7
66avg 99
A23/11
Lega A
Virtus Roma
#15
W
99-69
99
69
+30
96avg 99
H01/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
67-74
67
74
-7
58avg 99
A08/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
W
103-87
103
87
+16
99avg 99
H15/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
72-93
72
93
-21
no box
A21/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-21
12-19
21-17
25-30
26-19
24-17
27-23
25-19
14-26
16-20
15-28
24-19
21-18
14-25
19-23
20-25
24-14
17-14
12-20
22-27
20-23
28-20
13-18
13-20
34-19
24-20
21-15
20-15
14-14
21-23
12-17
20-20
25-24
31-30
26-20
21-13
24-18
17-29
16-24
15-22
167.7Avg total
83.3Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)81.580.0161.5+1.546%
Season at home (6)88.776.5165.2+12.283%
Season away (7)75.483.0158.4-7.614%
Last 10 (10)83.384.4167.7-1.140%
Last 5 (5)83.080.8163.8+2.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)68.784.0152.7-15.30%
vs Similar (12)80.384.0164.3-3.733%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)83.573.7157.2+9.973%
This opponent (Pistoia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPistoia
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#12
L
72-84
72
84
-12
65avg 80
A20/10
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
L
71-82
71
82
-11
70avg 80
A27/10
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
76-72
76
72
+4
73avg 80
H03/11
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
63-83
63
83
-20
no box
A11/11
Lega A
Cantu
#11
W
77-69
77
69
+8
69avg 80
H17/11
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
67-100
67
100
-33
52avg 80
A24/11
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
89-87
89
87
+2
81avg 80
H01/12
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
74-86
74
86
-12
52avg 80
A08/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
84-71
84
71
+13
80avg 80
H15/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
W
91-79
91
79
+12
81avg 80
H22/12
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
20-17
13-20
16-27
17-22
22-17
15-16
17-27
14-19
16-17
19-17
27-19
12-21
16-21
15-33
20-8
17-14
18-24
26-13
16-18
13-26
15-26
22-27
17-21
16-21
25-25
28-22
20-19
19-28
20-20
14-14
21-24
29-15
11-20
15-23
29-13
27-26
14-20
27-20
23-13
157.7Avg total
76.4Scored
81.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)75.482.6158.1-7.236%
Season at home (7)80.378.1158.4+2.171%
Season away (7)70.687.1157.7-16.60%
Last 10 (10)76.481.3157.7-4.950%
Last 5 (5)81.084.6165.6-3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (27)73.381.1154.4-7.922%
vs Similar (2)72.081.0153.0-9.00%
vs Weaker (1)91.079.0170.0+12.0100%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +1.7+1.7
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: -1.3-1.3Q2: -3.0-3.0Q3Q3: -2.3-2.3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +1.7+1.7
VaresePistoia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A19/10
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
50-36
50
36
+14
H27/10
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
30-46
30
46
-16
A03/11
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
35-43
35
43
-8
A10/11
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
41-28
41
28
+13
H17/11
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A23/11
Lega A
Virtus Roma
#15
W
58-39
58
39
+19
H01/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A08/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H15/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A21/12
Lega A
84.1Avg total
42.8Scored
41.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.437.879.2+3.563%-
Last 30 at home (15)43.136.679.7+6.580%-
Last 30 away (15)39.739.178.7+0.647%-
Last 10 (10)42.841.384.1+1.550%-
Last 5 (5)47.644.091.6+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)31.041.072.0-10.00%-
vs Similar (12)41.639.481.0+2.267%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)43.335.979.2+7.373%-
This opponent (Pistoia) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
PistoiaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Reggiana
#12
W
43-37
43
37
+6
A20/10
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
D
39-39
39
39
+0
A27/10
Lega A
Trieste
#14
L
30-36
30
36
-6
H03/11
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
28-42
28
42
-14
A11/11
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
35-38
35
38
-3
H17/11
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
28-52
28
52
-24
A24/11
Lega A
Venezia
#7
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H01/12
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
39-48
39
48
-9
A08/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
40-35
40
35
+5
H15/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
L
41-46
41
46
-5
H22/12
Lega A
78.3Avg total
36.4Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (29)38.041.679.6-3.621%-
Last 30 at home (14)38.640.979.6-2.314%-
Last 30 away (15)37.442.279.6-4.827%-
Last 10 (10)36.441.978.3-5.520%-
Last 5 (5)37.845.483.2-7.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (26)37.741.379.0-3.623%-
vs Similar (2)40.543.584.0-3.00%-
vs Weaker (1)41.046.087.0-5.00%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 81.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀39%
🏀🏀🏀43%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers31.316.0
51.1%
52.0%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.011.5
35.9%
35.1%34.5
🏀 Free throws17.814.6
82.0%
73.6%14.6
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 51% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Pistoiatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Pistoia: 75.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.018.0
48.6%
52.0%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.78.3
35.0%
35.1%24.9
🏀 Free throws19.014.5
76.3%
73.6%14.5
They take 60.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Dec 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLWLWLLWL
Pistoia
WWLWLWLWLL
#10
League position
#16
+2.2
Net rating
-7.2
118.9
Offensive rating
105.8
116.7
Defensive rating
112.9
52.5%
Effective FG%
50.2%
54.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
14.8%
Turnover %
16.9%
31.6%
Off. rebound %
26.2%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.31
35.9%
3-point %
35.0%
49.5%
Assist %
48.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence118.9 · 105.8Defence116.7 · 112.9Shooting52.5% · 50.2%3-point %35.9% · 35.0%Ball care14.8% · 16.9%Off. rebounds31.6% · 26.2%Free throws0.28 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Varese   ■ Pistoia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Varese wins
5
Pistoia wins
DateGameScore
05/05/19Varese v Pistoia98-70
06/01/19Pistoia v Varese71-65
04/03/18Pistoia v Varese74-65
29/10/17Varese v Pistoia81-73
27/02/17Varese v Pistoia75-70
30/10/16Pistoia v Varese97-64
03/04/16Varese v Pistoia91-78
13/12/15Pistoia v Varese67-65
03/05/15Pistoia v Varese87-103
04/01/15Varese v Pistoia67-71
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/19ACremona72-93
15/12/19HPesaro103-87
08/12/19ACantu67-74
01/12/19HVirtus Roma99-69
23/11/19AReggiana74-81
17/11/19HVenezia93-91 OT
10/11/19ABrescia74-91
03/11/19AOlimpia Milano69-93
27/10/19HBrindisi102-78
19/10/19AVirtus Bologna80-87
Pistoialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/12/19HPesaro91-79
15/12/19HCremona84-71
08/12/19ABrescia74-86
01/12/19HVenezia89-87
24/11/19ABrindisi67-100
17/11/19HCantu77-69
11/11/19AOlimpia Milano63-83
03/11/19HTrieste76-72
27/10/19AFortitudo Bologna71-82
20/10/19AReggiana72-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL46%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %46%83%14%
Points / game81.588.775.4
Allowed / game80.076.583.0
Point differential+1.5+12.2-7.6
Avg total161.5165.2158.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%67%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %8%17%0%
Pistoia
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW36%
HomeWWWWW71%
AwayLLLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %36%71%0%
Points / game75.480.370.6
Allowed / game82.678.187.1
Point differential-7.2+2.1-16.6
Avg total158.1158.4157.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (2)100% (2)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna1412286%84.176.1+8.0
2 Sassari1310377%82.472.4+10.0
3 Olimpia Milano1410471%80.973.1+7.8
4 Brescia138562%82.673.5+9.1
5 Cremona138562%78.377.5+0.8
6 Fortitudo Bologna148657%77.379.0-1.7
7 Brindisi137654%82.780.6+2.1
8 Cantu147750%74.676.4-1.8
9 Virtus Roma147750%75.882.0-6.2
10 Venezia136746%77.674.2+3.5
11 Varese136746%81.580.0+1.5
12 Treviso136746%76.976.4+0.5
13 Reggiana136746%81.883.1-1.3
14 Trento135838%77.381.5-4.2
15 Pistoia145936%75.482.6-7.2
16 Trieste1331023%74.580.8-6.2
17 Pesaro140140%77.691.1-13.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Varese2618242391
Pistoia1419151260
← all games of the day
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