PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Sydney vs Illawarra Hawks Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 25 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Scheduled
Position#1
Record7-3
FormWWLWW
Points / game97.9
Allowed / game88.1
vs
Position#10
Record2-8
FormLLWLL
Points / game95.2
Allowed / game105.1
AustraliaNBLRound 14· Qudos Bank Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Sydney v Illawarra Hawks
25 Dec 2026
SYDN v ILLA
upcoming
27 Sep 2026
SYDN121
ILLA100
29 Jan 2026
SYDN122
ILLA104
25 Dec 2025
SYDN108
ILLA84
25 Dec 2024
SYDN108
ILLA111
29 Sep 2024
SYDN89
ILLA96
11 Feb 2024
SYDN95
ILLA106
25 Dec 2023
SYDN90
ILLA94
15 Jan 2023
SYDN84
ILLA79
20 Nov 2022
SYDN83
ILLA82
01 May 2022
SYDN99
ILLA87
24 Apr 2022
SYDN84
ILLA87
11 Dec 2021
SYDN84
ILLA92
11 Mar 2021
SYDN69
ILLA89
14 Feb 2021
SYDN82
ILLA85
14 Feb 2020
SYDN98
ILLA82
17 Nov 2019
SYDN92
ILLA87
13 Jan 2019
SYDN84
ILLA96
02 Nov 2018
SYDN86
ILLA79
05 Nov 2017
SYDN83
ILLA93
15 Oct 2017
SYDN103
ILLA87
23 Dec 2016
SYDN75
ILLA87
24 Oct 2016
SYDN90
ILLA73
09 Jan 2016
SYDN90
ILLA114
17 Oct 2015
SYDN86
ILLA100
15 Feb 2015
SYDN73
ILLA75
11 Oct 2014
SYDN86
ILLA83
15 Feb 2014
SYDN84
ILLA102
14 Dec 2013
SYDN63
ILLA69
15 Dec 2012
SYDN70
ILLA63
09 Nov 2012
SYDN65
ILLA51
24 Mar 2012
SYDN68
ILLA77
23 Oct 2011
SYDN95
ILLA89
21 Jan 2011
SYDN81
ILLA71
12 Dec 2010
SYDN80
ILLA95
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Sydney win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
111-90
111
90
+21
H20/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
121-100
121
100
+21
H27/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
W
93-78
93
78
+15
H30/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
78-84
78
84
-6
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
101-102
101
102
-1
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
102-81
102
81
+21
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
108-82
108
82
+26
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
L
95-105
95
105
-10
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
99-91
99
91
+8
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
71-68
71
68
+3
A30/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-26
27-27
31-20
21-17
31-27
34-18
33-26
23-29
23-34
20-10
29-14
21-20
18-18
26-23
12-20
22-23
29-31
32-20
12-24
28-27
31-21
21-22
24-20
26-18
20-19
28-17
34-16
26-30
31-32
20-24
13-21
31-28
33-17
26-25
21-28
19-21
19-19
18-12
13-24
21-13
186.0Avg total
97.9Scored
88.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)97.988.1186.0+9.870%
Season at home (6)101.089.2190.2+11.867%
Season away (4)93.286.5179.8+6.875%
Last 10 (10)97.988.1186.0+9.870%
Last 5 (5)95.085.4180.4+9.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)102.289.5191.7+12.877%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
81-95
81
95
-14
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
95-103
95
103
-8
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
100-121
100
121
-21
A27/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
W
114-92
114
92
+22
H02/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#6
L
96-113
96
113
-17
A04/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
112-122
112
122
-10
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
91-89
91
89
+2
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
82-108
82
108
-26
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
81-98
81
98
-17
H24/10
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-28
23-26
14-22
20-19
18-25
24-25
24-23
29-30
27-31
18-34
26-33
29-23
35-21
30-14
27-32
22-25
23-23
18-36
32-26
23-28
22-32
25-35
26-24
39-31
27-28
23-29
27-29
23-24
21-27
35-16
22-22
13-24
19-20
17-28
16-34
30-26
16-25
19-30
27-14
19-29
200.3Avg total
95.2Scored
105.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)95.2105.1200.3-9.920%
Season at home (5)97.8106.0203.8-8.220%
Season away (5)92.6104.2196.8-11.620%
Last 10 (10)95.2105.1200.3-9.920%
Last 5 (5)93.2105.4198.6-12.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)95.2104.9200.1-9.724%
vs Similar (5)97.491.6189.0+5.860%
vs Weaker (4)96.282.8179.0+13.575%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: -2.8-2.8Q2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q2: -4.1-4.1Q3Q3: +0.9+0.9Q3: -1.8-1.8Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -1.2-1.2
SydneyIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
59-53
59
53
+6
H20/09
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
65-45
65
45
+20
H27/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
43-44
43
44
-1
H30/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#9
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
52-43
52
43
+9
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#10
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#3
W
59-42
59
42
+17
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A30/10
NBL
96.1Avg total
51.9Scored
44.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.945.398.1+7.680%-
Last 30 at home (17)55.146.4101.4+8.788%-
Last 30 away (13)50.043.893.8+6.269%-
Last 10 (10)51.944.296.1+7.780%-
Last 5 (5)49.441.691.0+7.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similarno games
vs Weaker ◀ (30)52.945.398.1+7.680%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Zealand Breakers
#9
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A20/09
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
42-50
42
50
-8
A25/09
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
45-65
45
65
-20
A27/09
NBL
Adelaide
#5
W
65-35
65
35
+30
H02/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#6
L
41-59
41
59
-18
A04/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
47-67
47
67
-20
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#7
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#8
L
35-55
35
55
-20
H24/10
NBL
99.7Avg total
46.4Scored
53.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.049.996.9-2.930%-
Last 30 at home (15)46.149.095.1-2.927%-
Last 30 away (15)47.950.798.6-2.933%-
Last 10 (10)46.453.399.7-6.920%-
Last 5 (5)44.854.098.8-9.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (21)46.251.797.9-5.524%-
vs Similar (5)51.446.297.6+5.260%-
vs Weaker (4)45.844.890.5+1.025%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 97.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.125.5
57.8%
56.0%51.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.2
35.4%
34.4%30.6
🏀 Free throws20.515.7
76.6%
73.7%15.7
They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 94.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.9 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.4 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.025.4
56.4%
56.0%50.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.610.6
33.5%
34.4%31.8
🏀 Free throws16.811.9
70.8%
73.7%11.9
They take 76.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 25 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Sydney
WWLWWLLWWW
Illawarra Hawks
LLWLLLWLLL
#1
League position
#10
+9.9
Net rating
-11.0
105.0
Offensive rating
99.1
95.0
Defensive rating
110.1
56.0%
Effective FG%
53.9%
51.0%
Opp. effective FG%
57.8%
11.6%
Turnover %
11.4%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.22
35.4%
3-point %
33.5%
58.0%
Assist %
58.3%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence105.0 · 99.1Defence95.0 · 110.1Shooting56.0% · 53.9%3-point %35.4% · 33.5%Ball care11.6% · 11.4%Free throws0.28 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)70% · 20%
■ Sydney   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Sydney wins
4
Illawarra Hawks wins
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers71-68
28/10/26APerth99-91
25/10/26AMelbourne United95-105
22/10/26AIllawarra Hawks108-82
17/10/26HPerth102-81
14/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers101-102
11/10/26HAdelaide78-84
30/09/26HBrisbane Bullets93-78
27/09/26HIllawarra Hawks121-100
20/09/26HCairns Taipans111-90
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/10/26HBrisbane Bullets81-98
22/10/26HSydney82-108
18/10/26AMelbourne United91-89
11/10/26HCairns Taipans100-110
09/10/26HTasmania JackJumpers112-122
04/10/26ASouth East Melbourne96-113
02/10/26HAdelaide114-92
27/09/26ASydney100-121
25/09/26ABrisbane Bullets95-103
20/09/26ANew Zealand Breakers81-95

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Sydney
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW70%
HomeWWLLW67%
AwayWLWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1064
Win %70%67%75%
Points / game97.9101.093.2
Allowed / game88.189.286.5
Point differential+9.8+11.8+6.8
Avg total186.0190.2179.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%67%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)0% (1)100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL20%
HomeWLLLL20%
AwayLLLLW20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055
Win %20%20%20%
Points / game95.297.892.6
Allowed / game105.1106.0104.2
Point differential-9.9-8.2-11.6
Avg total200.3203.8196.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%20%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney107370%97.988.1+9.8
2 Tasmania JackJumpers96367%95.391.0+4.3
3 Perth85362%92.695.6-3.0
4 Cairns Taipans106460%91.794.9-3.2
5 Adelaide105550%91.293.5-2.3
6 South East Melbourne94544%97.893.9+3.9
7 Melbourne United94544%94.992.0+2.9
8 Brisbane Bullets94544%93.697.6-4.0
9 New Zealand Breakers104640%92.290.6+1.6
10 Illawarra Hawks102820%95.2105.1-9.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.