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Tortona vs Varese Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 14 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#14
Record2-5
FormLWLLW
Points / game83.7
Allowed / game91.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.8/10
Below normal
6.1/10
Above normal
Position#8
Record4-3
FormLWWWL
Points / game87.7
Allowed / game87.6
ItalyLega ARound 22· Cittadella dello Sport
Domestic2026-27
Meetings · Tortona v Varese
14 Mar 2027
TOR v VAR
upcoming
09 Nov 2025
TOR90
VAR87
09 Mar 2025
TOR89
VAR82
24 Mar 2024
TOR90
VAR83
05 Feb 2023
TOR103
VAR91
16 Apr 2022
TOR104
VAR99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Tortona win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

TortonaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTortona
Date
Competition
Le Mans
#12
W
89-83
89
83
+6
86avg 75
H07/10
Eurocup
Reggiana
#13
L
86-93
86
93
-7
77avg 75
A11/10
Lega A
Aris
#6
L
68-88
68
88
-20
54avg 75
A14/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#4
L
75-89
75
89
-14
69avg 75
H18/10
Lega A
San Pablo Burgos
#30
W
89-79
89
79
+10
75avg 75
H21/10
Eurocup
Basket Napoli
#2
L
90-92
90
92
-2
82avg 75
H25/10
Lega A
Rostock
#28
W
86-83
86
83
+3
83avg 75
H28/10
Eurocup
Udine
#7
L
77-86
77
86
-9
68avg 75
A01/11
Lega A
Cedevita Olimpija
#25
L
71-73 OT
71
73
-2
no box
A04/11
Eurocup
Treviso
#5
W
87-76
87
76
+11
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-20
24-24
20-22
23-17
25-25
23-22
19-22
19-24
21-31
23-14
11-17
13-26
20-22
18-25
24-25
13-17
18-25
18-20
22-17
31-17
26-19
21-22
17-26
26-25
23-24
16-20
18-26
29-13
14-19
19-21
20-17
24-29
20-16
16-11
14-17
15-21
22-20
22-19
27-21
16-16
166.0Avg total
81.8Scored
84.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)83.791.0174.7-7.329%
Season at home (4)88.287.5175.8+0.850%
Season away (3)77.795.7173.3-18.00%
Last 10 (10)81.884.2166.0-2.440%
Last 5 (5)82.282.0164.2+0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)80.388.8169.1-8.422%
vs Similar (12)82.881.3164.1+1.450%
vs Weaker (9)89.484.7174.1+4.867%
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormVarese
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
69-90
69
90
-21
50avg 78
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
85-77
85
77
+8
78avg 78
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#10
L
58-85
58
85
-27
44avg 78
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#6
W
85-84
85
84
+1
82avg 78
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
L
82-85
82
85
-3
80avg 78
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
85-87
85
87
-2
72avg 78
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#12
W
110-103 OT
110
103
+7
106avg 78
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
95-61
95
61
+34
92avg 78
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
99-88
99
88
+11
90avg 78
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#7
L
81-84
81
84
-3
no box
H08/11
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-26
18-21
19-21
11-22
24-17
16-21
30-24
15-15
8-16
14-23
20-27
16-19
19-15
21-23
21-20
24-26
27-26
25-11
12-27
18-21
17-23
24-26
21-23
23-15
32-28
17-17
17-22
29-28
22-10
24-16
29-17
20-18
25-23
25-21
23-27
26-17
26-14
23-26
14-27
18-17
169.3Avg total
84.9Scored
84.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (7)87.787.6175.3+0.157%
Season at home (4)86.290.2176.5-4.050%
Season away (3)89.784.0173.7+5.767%
Last 10 (10)84.984.4169.3+0.550%
Last 5 (5)94.084.6178.6+9.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)83.589.8173.2-6.242%
vs Similar (16)88.186.6174.7+1.456%
vs Weaker ◀ (2)90.069.0159.0+21.0100%
This opponent (Tortona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +0.2+0.2
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.0-1.0Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q2: +0.2+0.2Q3Q3: -1.8-1.8Q3: -2.9-2.9Q4Q4: +0.4+0.4Q4: +0.2+0.2
TortonaVarese
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
TortonaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Le Mans
#12
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H07/10
Eurocup
Reggiana
#13
W
48-47
48
47
+1
A11/10
Lega A
Aris
#6
L
44-45
44
45
-1
A14/10
Eurocup
Maxima Roma
#4
L
38-47
38
47
-9
H18/10
Lega A
San Pablo Burgos
#30
L
36-45
36
45
-9
H21/10
Eurocup
Basket Napoli
#2
W
47-41
47
41
+6
H25/10
Lega A
Rostock
#28
L
39-44
39
44
-5
H28/10
Eurocup
Udine
#7
L
33-40
33
40
-7
A01/11
Lega A
Cedevita Olimpija
#25
W
36-27
36
27
+9
A04/11
Eurocup
Treviso
#5
W
44-39
44
39
+5
H08/11
Lega A
83.0Avg total
41.1Scored
41.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.942.083.9-0.153%-
Last 30 at home (16)42.440.482.8+2.062%-
Last 30 away (14)41.443.985.3-2.443%-
Last 10 (10)41.141.983.0-0.850%-
Last 5 (5)39.838.278.0+1.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (9)41.743.985.6-2.244%-
vs Similar (12)41.140.481.5+0.758%-
vs Weaker (9)43.342.285.6+1.156%-
This opponent (Varese) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H27/09
Lega A
Scafati
#15
W
40-38
40
38
+2
A04/10
Lega A
Murcia
#10
L
22-39
22
39
-17
A07/10
Champions League
Trieste
#6
W
40-38
40
38
+2
H10/10
Lega A
Peristeri
#3
W
52-37
52
37
+15
H13/10
Champions League
Trento
#11
L
41-49
41
49
-8
A18/10
Lega A
BC Roma
#12
W
49-45
49
45
+4
H24/10
Lega A
Bamberg
#53
W
46-26
46
26
+20
A27/10
Champions League
Verona
#10
W
50-44
50
44
+6
A31/10
Lega A
Udine
#7
W
49-40
49
40
+9
H08/11
Lega A
83.1Avg total
42.8Scored
40.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)41.842.584.3-0.647%-
Last 30 at home (14)44.442.286.6+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)39.642.782.3-3.138%-
Last 10 (10)42.840.383.1+2.570%-
Last 5 (5)47.040.887.8+6.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)41.344.786.0-3.333%-
vs Similar (16)42.142.184.2-0.150%-
vs Weaker ◀ (2)43.032.075.0+11.0100%-
This opponent (Tortona) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Tortonatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Tortona: 81.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀22%
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.6 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.7 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 22% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.519.8
51.4%
54.3%39.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.37.9
31.2%
34.3%23.7
🏀 Free throws23.618.1
76.7%
74.6%18.1
They take 63.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers36.0 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 86.2 points a game
46%
33%
21%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.518.0
50.7%
54.3%36.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.910.5
36.3%
34.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.717.1
69.2%
74.6%17.1
They take 64.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Tortona
WLLWLWLLLW
Varese
LWWWLLWLWL
#14
League position
#8
-8.6
Net rating
-1.2
95.7
Offensive rating
91.5
104.3
Defensive rating
92.7
49.6%
Effective FG%
52.4%
55.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.3%
14.0%
Turnover %
18.5%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.38
31.2%
3-point %
36.3%
52.0%
Assist %
66.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence95.7 · 91.5Defence104.3 · 92.7Shooting49.6% · 52.4%3-point %31.2% · 36.3%Ball care14.0% · 18.5%Free throws0.37 · 0.38Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Tortona   ■ Varese
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Tortona wins
2
Varese wins
DateGameScore
28/03/26Varese v Tortona97-87
09/11/25Tortona v Varese90-87
09/03/25Tortona v Varese89-82 OT
06/10/24Varese v Tortona95-105
24/03/24Tortona v Varese90-83
15/10/23Varese v Tortona78-80
05/02/23Tortona v Varese103-91
02/01/23Varese v Tortona88-89
16/04/22Tortona v Varese104-99
20/11/21Varese v Tortona85-76
Tortonalast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HTreviso87-76
04/11/26ACedevita Olimpija71-73 OT
01/11/26AUdine77-86
28/10/26HRostock86-83
25/10/26HBasket Napoli90-92
21/10/26HSan Pablo Burgos89-79
18/10/26HMaxima Roma75-89
14/10/26AAris68-88
11/10/26AReggiana86-93
07/10/26HLe Mans89-83
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/11/26HUdine81-84
31/10/26AVerona99-88
27/10/26ABamberg95-61
24/10/26HBC Roma110-103 OT
18/10/26ATrento85-87
13/10/26HPeristeri82-85
10/10/26HTrieste85-84
07/10/26AMurcia58-85
04/10/26AScafati85-77
27/09/26HVirtus Bologna69-90

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Tortona
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW29%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %29%50%0%
Points / game83.788.277.7
Allowed / game91.087.595.7
Point differential-7.3+0.8-18.0
Avg total174.7175.8173.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won0% (1)0% (1)-
Overtime %0%0%0%
Varese
Lega A 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL57%
HomeLWWL50%
AwayWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games743
Win %57%50%67%
Points / game87.786.289.7
Allowed / game87.690.284.0
Point differential+0.1-4.0+5.7
Avg total175.3176.5173.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%0%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)50% (2)0% (1)
Overtime %14%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna76186%96.486.0+10.4
2 Basket Napoli76186%93.786.6+7.1
3 Olimpia Milano75271%90.982.7+8.1
4 Maxima Roma75271%88.183.7+4.4
5 Treviso75271%90.788.6+2.1
6 Trieste74357%94.488.4+6.0
7 Udine74357%81.380.3+1.0
8 Varese74357%87.787.6+0.1
9 Venezia74357%87.988.6-0.7
10 Verona73443%88.491.1-2.7
11 Trento73443%80.483.6-3.1
12 BC Roma72529%100.199.3+0.9
13 Reggiana72529%81.783.7-2.0
14 Tortona72529%83.791.0-7.3
15 Scafati71614%81.692.0-10.4
16 Cantu7070%76.990.9-14.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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