Zalgiris Kaunas will host Neptunas on 15 November 2026 in the LKL, and the Pythia model names the Lithuanian powerhouse as the clear favourite, rating a 93% chance of victory largely because of their unblemished 9-0 record, 93.2 points per game and 76.1 allowed, and a 4-0 home record with 95.0 points per game and 72.2 allowed. Neptunas, meanwhile, sit fourth with a 5-4 record, 85.2 points per game and 84.7 allowed, but their road form is poor, 1-3 with 79.5 points per game and 88.8 allowed, and they have only won two of their last five outings. In the ten meetings between the clubs, Zalgiris has won every encounter, most recently 93-69 on 20 September 2026. Pythia projects a 97-78 score, a 175.1 total, and a 62% probability that Zalgiris will cover the home line of -15.0; the over on the 171.25 line has a 59% chance, and the game has a 1% chance of overtime. The last five games show Zalgiris beating Olimpia Milano 86-83, Juventus 94-85 and Besiktas 83-67, while Neptunas has won only against Slask Wroclaw 90-82 and Taurage 82-80, losing to Tofas 79-94.
Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Zalgiris Kaunas win
93.5%fair 1.07
Best odds1.15
Implied83.0%
Edge+10.5pp
Neptunas win
6.5%fair 15.30
Best odds8.00
Implied17.0%
Edge-10.5pp
Pythia's frozen forecast of 13 Nov 18:31 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Total points distribution
Pythia expects about 175 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 175-179 (12%). The market's main line is 171.75.
Over/Under 166.5
Over 166.5
70.8%
@ 1.54+11.1pp
Under 166.5
29.2%
@ 2.35-11.1pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.50
Under
Betano
2.35
1xBet
2.16
Over/Under 171.75 · main line
Over 171.75
59.3%
@ 1.81+9.4pp
Under 171.75
40.7%
@ 1.80-9.4pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.81
Under
1xBet
1.80
Over/Under 176.5
Over 176.5
46.2%
@ 2.42+5.8pp
Under 176.5
53.8%
@ 1.57-5.8pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.42
Bet365
2.25
1xBet
2.21
Under
Bet365
1.57
1xBet
1.50
Betano
1.47
📊 3. Team Totals
Zalgiris Kaunas total 90.5
Over 90.5
74.0%
@ 1.57+14.6pp
Under 90.5
26.0%
@ 2.35-14.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.54
1xBet
1.46
Under
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Zalgiris Kaunas total 94.5 · main line
Over 94.5
59.4%
@ 2.02+13.6pp
Under 94.5
40.6%
@ 1.83-13.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
1xBet
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Under
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.59
Zalgiris Kaunas total 98.5
Over 98.5
43.3%
@ 2.65+7.5pp
Under 98.5
56.7%
@ 1.45-7.5pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.65
Betano
2.52
Under
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.43
Neptunas total 74
Over 74
67.0%
Under 74
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neptunas total 78 · main line
Over 78
50.7%
@ 1.82+0.6pp
Under 78
49.3%
@ 1.84-0.6pp
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.72
Under
Marathon Be
1.84
1xBet
1.72
Neptunas total 82
Over 82
34.4%
Under 82
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 4. Spread
Winning margin distribution
Margin from Zalgiris Kaunas's side (positive = Zalgiris Kaunas win). Pythia's expected margin is +18.5; Zalgiris Kaunas win by 1+ in 90% of simulations.
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -18
ZAL -18
51.7%
@ 2.39+13.0pp
NEP +18
48.3%
@ 1.58-13.0pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
Pinnacle
2.39
Bet365
2.22
NEP
Bet365
1.58
Marathon Be
1.54
Pinnacle
1.51
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -15 · main line
ZAL -15
62.0%
@ 1.87+12.2pp
NEP +15
38.0%
@ 1.86-12.2pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
Pinnacle
1.87
SBO
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.82
1xBet
1.82
NEP
Pinnacle
1.86
SBO
1.84
Bet365
1.83
Marathon Be
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -12
ZAL -12
71.5%
@ 1.55+11.6pp
NEP +12
28.5%
@ 2.31-11.6pp
Best 5 market prices
ZAL
Bet365
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
NEP
Pinnacle
2.31
Bet365
2.30
⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves
Quarter by quarter
Zalgiris KaunasNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
2nd half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
2nd half winner
ZAL win
83.9%
@ 1.42+18.2pp
NEP win
16.1%
@ 2.72-18.2pp
2nd half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -7 · main line
ZAL -7
59.1%
@ 1.83+9.1pp
NEP +7
40.9%
@ 1.83-9.1pp
2nd half Over/Under 84.5 · main line
Over
60.2%
@ 1.83+10.2pp
Under
39.8%
@ 1.83-10.2pp
Zalgiris Kaunas 2nd half total 45.5 · main line
Over
65.0%
@ 1.81+14.4pp
Under
35.0%
@ 1.85-14.4pp
Neptunas 2nd half total 38.5 · main line
Over
53.3%
@ 1.81+3.3pp
Under
46.7%
@ 1.85-3.3pp
2nd half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -8
ZAL -8
54.7%
@ 1.92+7.0pp
NEP +8
45.3%
@ 1.75-7.0pp
2nd half Over/Under 82.5
Over
67.0%
@ 1.59+11.9pp
Under
33.0%
@ 1.95-11.9pp
2nd half Over/Under 86.5
Over
52.6%
@ 2.03+9.5pp
Under
47.4%
@ 1.54-9.5pp
2nd half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -5.5
ZAL -5.5
64.7%
@ 1.59+9.1pp
NEP +5.5
35.3%
@ 1.99-9.1pp
2nd half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -9.5
ZAL -9.5
48.5%
@ 2.07+5.9pp
NEP +9.5
51.5%
@ 1.54-5.9pp
2nd half Spread Zalgiris Kaunas -4.5
ZAL -4.5
68.6%
@ 1.50+9.7pp
NEP +4.5
31.4%
@ 2.15-9.7pp
2nd half 3-way (draw possible)
ZAL
81.8%
@ 1.45+11.8pp
Draw
2.6%
@ 18.75-2.3pp
NEP
15.7%
@ 3.62-9.6pp
⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro
Markets that span the whole game: how the halves and quarters compare, overtime, the exact winning margin. Pythia's probability comes from 20,000 simulations of this game quarter by quarter; the price, edge and books are the same as everywhere on the page.
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ranked by edge (click any column to re-sort). Free readers see five, one market at a time (moneyline, spread, total ...); Pro sees every selection and can filter by Min odds and Edge. The five price columns are the best market prices (highest first); edge is vs the consensus price.
They take 60.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 24.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 63.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Zalgiris Kaunas: 78.7 points a game allowed
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers43.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.8
21.8
53.4%
55.6%
43.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
22.6
7.7
34.1%
35.3%
23.1
🏀Free throws
16.6
12.0
72.3%
70.8%
12.0
Their opponents take 63.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Neptunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 10 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Neptunas: 87.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
40.3
23.1
57.3%
55.6%
46.2
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.2
9.3
36.9%
35.3%
27.9
🏀Free throws
18.6
13.2
71.0%
70.8%
13.2
Their opponents take 65.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
They take 61.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
They take 62.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Zalgiris Kaunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Zalgiris Kaunas: 78.0 points a game allowed
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.5 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers21.8 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws11.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
41.9
22.3
53.2%
55.6%
44.5
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
21.9
7.3
33.2%
35.3%
21.8
🏀Free throws
15.9
11.6
73.0%
70.8%
11.6
Their opponents take 63.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 21.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
Neptunastheir opponents' shots (defence), last 30 games
Where their opponents' points come from
Neptunas: 86.3 points a game allowed
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers41.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 83.4 points a game
51%
30%
19%
Shooting by shot type
Shot type
Opponents' Attempts per game
Opponents' Made per game
Opponents' Accuracy (made ÷ attempts)
League accuracy
Points per game
🏀🏀2-pointers
37.2
20.8
55.9%
55.6%
41.6
🏀🏀🏀3-pointers
25.9
9.3
36.0%
35.3%
28.0
🏀Free throws
22.5
16.7
74.1%
70.8%
16.7
Their opponents take 63.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of those shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when they hold opponents below the league average.
💪 9. Team Strengths
Side by side
Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Zalgiris Kaunas
WWWWWWWWWL
Neptunas
WWLLLWLWWL
#1
League position
#5
+11.2
Net rating
-1.7
106.4
Offensive rating
98.4
95.2
Defensive rating
100.1
59.8%
Effective FG%
51.8%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
56.6%
16.4%
Turnover %
15.6%
0.36
Free-throw rate
0.39
43.4%
3-point %
32.8%
69.0%
Assist %
64.0%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%
Profile
■ Zalgiris Kaunas■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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