PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Zalgiris Kaunas vs Neptunas Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Feb 2026
Tip-off: 13:15
Final 119-81
31-22 25-22 35-20 28-17
Position#1
Record2-0
FormLWWWW
Points / game103.5
Allowed / game68.0
vs
Position#6
Record2-0
FormWLLLL
Points / game87.0
Allowed / game71.5
LithuaniaKing Mindaugas CupKing Mindaugas Cup - Semi-finals· Zalgirio Arena
Other2025-26
Meetings · Zalgiris Kaunas v Neptunas
25 Apr 2027
ZAL v NEP
upcoming
15 Nov 2026
ZAL v NEP
upcoming
21 Feb 2026
ZAL119
NEP81
08 Feb 2026
ZAL87
NEP76
04 Jan 2026
ZAL112
NEP77
24 May 2025
ZAL88
NEP75
07 May 2025
ZAL84
NEP49
15 Dec 2024
ZAL91
NEP75
27 Nov 2023
ZAL76
NEP88
08 Jan 2023
ZAL77
NEP46
11 May 2022
ZAL89
NEP60
07 May 2022
ZAL87
NEP71
02 May 2022
ZAL92
NEP88
10 Oct 2021
ZAL98
NEP79
28 Feb 2021
ZAL85
NEP72
13 Feb 2021
ZAL84
NEP72
22 Nov 2020
ZAL81
NEP59
01 Dec 2019
ZAL100
NEP82
09 May 2019
ZAL90
NEP80
14 Oct 2018
ZAL60
NEP75
10 Apr 2018
ZAL94
NEP47
05 Nov 2017
ZAL88
NEP62
19 May 2017
ZAL83
NEP60
13 May 2017
ZAL83
NEP54
05 Mar 2017
ZAL69
NEP78
23 Oct 2016
ZAL77
NEP67
06 Jun 2016
ZAL97
NEP70
31 May 2016
ZAL78
NEP54
25 May 2016
ZAL83
NEP72
31 Jan 2016
ZAL89
NEP57
11 Oct 2015
ZAL81
NEP71
01 Mar 2015
ZAL86
NEP90
02 Nov 2014
ZAL86
NEP48
06 Jun 2014
ZAL90
NEP70
31 May 2014
ZAL88
NEP72
26 May 2014
ZAL92
NEP83
07 Apr 2014
ZAL79
NEP88
23 Apr 2013
ZAL99
NEP83
20 Jan 2013
ZAL111
NEP87
26 Feb 2012
ZAL85
NEP84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Zalgiris Kaunas winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Neptunas winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Zalgiris KaunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormKaunas
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#13
W
86-82
86
82
+4
74avg 85
A22/01
Euroleague
Nevezis
#9
W
88-73
88
73
+15
82avg 85
H25/01
LKL
Baskonia
#18
L
91-102
91
102
-11
85avg 85
A30/01
Euroleague
Jonava
#8
W
104-91
104
91
+13
117avg 85
H01/02
LKL
Monaco
#10
W
104-87
104
87
+17
103avg 85
H03/02
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
82-92
82
92
-10
81avg 85
A06/02
Euroleague
Neptunas
#3
W
87-76
87
76
+11
92avg 85
H08/02
LKL
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
93-82
93
82
+11
88avg 85
H13/02
Euroleague
Gargzdai
#5
W
69-63
69
63
+6
60avg 85
A15/02
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
91-67
91
67
+24
88avg 85
A18/02
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
19-22
26-22
17-23
24-15
18-20
22-20
29-6
19-27
23-19
22-27
26-29
20-27
35-21
21-24
31-23
17-23
35-18
21-20
20-22
28-27
24-25
21-22
22-18
15-27
19-27
32-10
20-18
16-21
24-20
20-23
19-19
30-20
14-12
19-14
18-19
18-18
18-16
24-13
26-21
23-17
171.0Avg total
89.5Scored
81.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)103.568.0171.5+35.5100%
Season at home (1)89.063.0152.0+26.0100%
Season away (1)118.073.0191.0+45.0100%
Last 10 (10)89.581.5171.0+8.080%
Last 5 (5)84.476.0160.4+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)95.584.7180.2+10.867%
vs Weaker ◀ (24)90.179.3169.4+10.875%
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLithuaniaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNeptunas
Date
Competition
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
85-104
85
104
-19
74avg 84
H13/01
Eurocup
Nevezis
#5
W
87-67
87
67
+20
no box
H17/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Manresa
#10
L
96-97
96
97
-1
88avg 84
A21/01
Eurocup
Lietkabelis
#6
W
97-87
97
87
+10
94avg 84
H24/01
LKL
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
W
98-92
98
92
+6
96avg 84
H28/01
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
W
95-87
95
87
+8
92avg 84
H31/01
LKL
Aris
#13
L
64-83
64
83
-19
55avg 84
A04/02
Eurocup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
76-87
76
87
-11
67avg 84
A08/02
LKL
Bahcesehir Kol.
#7
L
86-91
86
91
-5
74avg 84
H11/02
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
L
95-100
95
100
-5
85avg 84
A14/02
LKL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-24
25-23
20-27
24-30
17-13
21-24
30-15
19-15
24-22
29-24
20-16
23-35
29-23
17-21
24-19
27-24
33-25
21-30
23-17
21-20
30-19
22-26
23-22
20-20
21-21
13-19
8-25
22-18
27-19
10-32
18-20
21-16
21-30
24-20
22-20
19-21
23-31
22-25
24-21
26-23
177.4Avg total
87.9Scored
89.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (2)87.071.5158.5+15.5100%
Season at home (1)87.067.0154.0+20.0100%
Season away (1)87.076.0163.0+11.0100%
Last 10 (10)87.989.5177.4-1.640%
Last 5 (5)83.289.6172.8-6.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)90.9100.8191.7-9.930%
vs Similar (9)89.886.3176.1+3.456%
vs Weaker (11)102.292.9195.1+9.382%
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +1.4+1.4Q2Q2: +3.3+3.3Q2: -4.0-4.0Q3Q3: +3.0+3.0Q3: +1.0+1.0Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.0+0.0
Zalgiris KaunasNeptunas
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Zalgiris KaunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Olimpia Milano
#13
W
45-44
45
44
+1
A22/01
Euroleague
Nevezis
#9
D
40-40
40
40
+0
H25/01
LKL
Baskonia
#18
L
45-46
45
46
-1
A30/01
Euroleague
Jonava
#8
W
56-45
56
45
+11
H01/02
LKL
Monaco
#10
W
56-38
56
38
+18
H03/02
Euroleague
Anadolu Efes
#19
L
45-47
45
47
-2
A06/02
Euroleague
Neptunas
#3
W
51-37
51
37
+14
H08/02
LKL
Hapoel Tel-Aviv
#6
W
44-43
44
43
+1
H13/02
Euroleague
Gargzdai
#5
W
33-26
33
26
+7
A15/02
LKL
Nevezis
#9
W
42-29
42
29
+13
A18/02
LKL
85.2Avg total
45.7Scored
39.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)44.839.584.3+5.353%-
Last 30 at home (14)47.237.985.1+9.371%-
Last 30 away (16)42.740.983.6+1.838%-
Last 10 (10)45.739.585.2+6.270%-
Last 5 (5)43.036.479.4+6.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (6)45.538.784.2+6.867%-
vs Weaker ◀ (24)44.639.884.4+4.950%-
This opponent (Neptunas) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
NeptunasLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cedevita Olimpija
#5
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H13/01
Eurocup
Nevezis
#5
W
38-37
38
37
+1
H17/01
King Mindaugas Cup
Manresa
#10
W
53-46
53
46
+7
A21/01
Eurocup
Lietkabelis
#6
W
46-44
46
44
+2
H24/01
LKL
Hapoel Jerusalem
#3
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H28/01
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H31/01
LKL
Aris
#13
L
34-40
34
40
-6
A04/02
Eurocup
Zalgiris Kaunas
#1
L
37-51
37
51
-14
A08/02
LKL
Bahcesehir Kol.
#7
L
45-50
45
50
-5
H11/02
Eurocup
Rytas
#2
L
45-56
45
56
-11
A14/02
LKL
91.6Avg total
44.5Scored
47.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.048.295.2-1.150%-
Last 30 at home (15)48.148.696.7-0.540%-
Last 30 away (15)45.947.793.7-1.860%-
Last 10 (10)44.547.191.6-2.640%-
Last 5 (5)42.648.491.0-5.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)46.152.498.5-6.330%-
vs Similar (9)45.945.090.9+0.956%-
vs Weaker (11)48.846.995.7+1.964%-
This opponent (Zalgiris Kaunas) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Zalgiris Kaunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Zalgiris Kaunas: 89.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.6 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.0 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers39.523.1
58.5%
55.4%46.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.08.1
35.2%
35.7%24.3
🏀 Free throws24.018.6
77.5%
74.2%18.6
They take 62.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Neptunastheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Neptunas: 90.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers37.6 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.0 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 85.0 points a game
50%
30%
19%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers35.218.8
53.4%
55.4%37.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.710.3
35.9%
35.7%30.9
🏀 Free throws28.022.0
78.6%
74.2%22.0
They take 63.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 38%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Feb 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Zalgiris Kaunas
WWWWLWWLWW
Neptunas
LLLLWWWLWL
#1
League position
#6
+9.0
Net rating
-0.6
105.5
Offensive rating
103.3
96.5
Defensive rating
103.9
56.4%
Effective FG%
53.6%
52.7%
Opp. effective FG%
57.4%
13.6%
Turnover %
13.4%
0.38
Free-throw rate
0.44
35.2%
3-point %
35.9%
71.2%
Assist %
64.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence105.5 · 103.3Defence96.5 · 103.9Shooting56.4% · 53.6%3-point %35.2% · 35.9%Ball care13.6% · 13.4%Free throws0.38 · 0.44Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Zalgiris Kaunas   ■ Neptunas
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Zalgiris Kaunas wins
0
Neptunas wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/02/26ANevezis91-67
15/02/26AGargzdai69-63
13/02/26HHapoel Tel-Aviv93-82
08/02/26HNeptunas87-76
06/02/26AAnadolu Efes82-92
03/02/26HMonaco104-87
01/02/26HJonava104-91
30/01/26ABaskonia91-102
25/01/26HNevezis88-73
22/01/26AOlimpia Milano86-82
Neptunaslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/02/26ARytas95-100
11/02/26HBahcesehir Kol.86-91
08/02/26AZalgiris Kaunas76-87
04/02/26AAris64-83
31/01/26HRytas95-87
28/01/26HHapoel Jerusalem98-92
24/01/26HLietkabelis97-87
21/01/26AManresa96-97
17/01/26HNevezis87-67
13/01/26HCedevita Olimpija85-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Zalgiris Kaunas
King Mindaugas Cup 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game103.589.0118.0
Allowed / game68.063.073.0
Point differential+35.5+26.0+45.0
Avg total171.5152.0191.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
Neptunas
King Mindaugas Cup 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWW100%
HomeW100%
AwayW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game87.087.087.0
Allowed / game71.567.076.0
Point differential+15.5+20.0+11.0
Avg total158.5154.0163.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+100%100%100%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Zalgiris Kaunas220100%103.568.0+35.5
2 Neptunas220100%87.071.5+15.5
3 Rytas220100%98.088.0+10.0
4 Lietkabelis21150%77.072.0+5.0
5 Juventus105550%84.883.0+1.8
6 Nevezis105550%84.787.7-3.0
7 Siauliai104640%87.590.1-2.6
8 Jonava104640%81.290.9-9.7
9 Gargzdai83538%84.584.1+0.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Zalgiris Kaunas31253528119
Neptunas2222201781
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.