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Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 21 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 03:00
Projected 111-113
Projected total 223.4
Scheduled
Position#12
Record6-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game113.3
Denver Nuggets
USA
Vs
45%
55%
■ DEN 45%■ HOU 55%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
3.5/10
Below normal
Houston Rockets
USA
Position#4
Record10-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game116.2
Allowed / game107.4
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets
20 Nov 2026
DEN v HOU
upcoming
11 Mar 2026
DEN129
HOU93
20 Dec 2025
DEN101
HOU115
15 Dec 2025
DEN128
HOU125
15 Jan 2025
DEN108
HOU128
08 Dec 2023
DEN106
HOU114
29 Nov 2023
DEN134
HOU124
30 Nov 2022
DEN120
HOU100
28 Nov 2022
DEN129
HOU113
04 Mar 2022
DEN116
HOU101
06 Nov 2021
DEN95
HOU94
24 Apr 2021
DEN129
HOU116
28 Dec 2020
DEN124
HOU111
26 Jan 2020
DEN117
HOU110
20 Nov 2019
DEN105
HOU95
01 Feb 2019
DEN136
HOU122
13 Nov 2018
DEN99
HOU109
25 Feb 2018
DEN114
HOU119
18 Mar 2017
DEN105
HOU109
02 Dec 2016
DEN110
HOU128
14 Dec 2015
DEN114
HOU108
13 Nov 2015
DEN107
HOU98
07 Mar 2015
DEN100
HOU114
17 Dec 2014
DEN111
HOU115
09 Apr 2014
DEN123
HOU116
06 Apr 2013
DEN132
HOU114
30 Jan 2013
DEN118
HOU110
15 Apr 2012
DEN101
HOU86
06 Feb 2012
DEN90
HOU99
07 Feb 2011
DEN103
HOU108
03 Jan 2011
DEN113
HOU106
16 Dec 2009
DEN111
HOU101
09 Mar 2009
DEN95
HOU97
30 Nov 2008
DEN104
HOU94
Sections
Game preview & prediction
Denver Nuggets host Houston Rockets in the NBA. Pythia makes Houston Rockets the favourite at 55% and projects 111-113, about 223 points in all. Overtime chance: 7%. Denver Nuggets are 6-4 this season (114.5 scored, 113.3 allowed a game), form LWWLW; Houston Rockets are 10-3 this season (116.2 scored, 107.4 allowed a game), form LLWWW.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
44.8%fair 2.23
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets win
55.2%fair 1.81
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 11 Nov 07:36 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 113
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 113
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 113
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 113
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 113
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 113
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 113
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 113
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 113
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#9
W
123-118
123
118
+5
114avg 113
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
35-24
30-28
29-38
29-28
227.8Avg total
114.5Scored
113.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (6)108.7106.2214.8+2.567%
Last 10 (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Last 5 (5)115.0111.4226.4+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)115.0113.2228.2+1.850%
vs Similar (14)113.9114.5228.4-0.657%
vs Weaker (12)128.2117.0245.2+11.292%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
120-110
120
110
+10
126avg 106
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
132-100
132
100
+32
127avg 106
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
L
111-116
111
116
-5
98avg 106
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
119-98
119
98
+21
110avg 106
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
109-93
109
93
+16
109avg 106
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
L
107-117
107
117
-10
97avg 106
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
L
99-102
99
102
-3
81avg 106
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
W
110-100
110
100
+10
107avg 106
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
W
115-108
115
108
+7
108avg 106
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
125-118
125
118
+7
117avg 106
H14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-35
31-31
28-19
29-25
23-21
34-14
38-34
37-31
20-27
31-17
33-32
27-40
35-26
27-25
30-24
27-23
29-29
28-21
25-23
27-20
30-33
27-24
27-25
23-35
23-35
24-12
28-29
24-26
32-24
22-16
23-28
33-32
35-20
21-31
29-28
30-29
27-27
36-26
29-36
33-29
220.9Avg total
114.7Scored
106.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)116.2107.4223.5+8.877%
Season at home (8)116.6106.8223.4+9.988%
Season away (5)115.4108.4223.8+7.060%
Last 10 (10)114.7106.2220.9+8.570%
Last 5 (5)111.2109.0220.2+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)110.5113.5224.0-3.050%
vs Similar (11)106.5104.1210.5+2.445%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)120.8107.4228.2+13.588%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

Total points distribution

3%5%8%11%0%1751%1801%1852%1904%1956%2008%2059%21010%21511%22010%2259%2308%2357%2405%2453%2502%2551%2601%2651%2700%2750%280
1%1802%1906%2009%21011%2209%2307%2403%2501%2601%2700%280
Pythia expects about 223 points (overtime included in the simulation); the most likely band is 220-224 (11%).
Over/Under 220
Over 220
56.4%
Under 220
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 225
Over 225
45.5%
Under 225
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 230
Over 230
35.0%
Under 230
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Denver Nuggets total 109.5
Over 109.5
54.0%
Under 109.5
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denver Nuggets total 113.5
Over 113.5
40.8%
Under 113.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denver Nuggets total 117.5
Over 117.5
28.7%
Under 117.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 107.5
Over 107.5
66.5%
Under 107.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 111.5
Over 111.5
53.5%
Under 111.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Houston Rockets total 115.5
Over 115.5
40.1%
Under 115.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Winning margin distribution

2%5%7%9%0%-391%-361%-331%-302%-273%-244%-215%-186%-157%-128%-99%-68%-36%+09%+37%+66%+95%+124%+153%+182%+211%+241%+271%+300%+33
1%-361%-303%-245%-187%-129%-66%+07%+65%+123%+181%+241%+30
Margin from Denver Nuggets's side (positive = Denver Nuggets win). Pythia's expected margin is -1.7; Denver Nuggets win by 1+ in 39% of simulations.
Spread Denver Nuggets -3
DEN -3
38.3%
HOU +3
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.
Spread Denver Nuggets 0
DEN 0
44.8%
HOU 0
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.
Spread Denver Nuggets +3
DEN +3
51.1%
HOU -3
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
DEN
No market prices yet.
HOU
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.0+0.0
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +6.4+6.4Q3Q3: -2.2-2.2Q3: +1.2+1.2Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.0+0.0
Denver NuggetsHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#9
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A12/11
NBA
114.9Avg total
58.8Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.457.9118.3+2.553%-
Last 30 at home (17)62.361.1123.4+1.241%-
Last 30 away (13)57.953.7111.6+4.269%-
Last 10 (10)58.856.1114.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)59.854.4114.2+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)57.553.8111.2+3.875%-
vs Similar (14)58.656.8115.4+1.850%-
vs Weaker (12)63.560.5124.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
63-66
63
66
-3
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
57-35
57
35
+22
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#13
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
62-51
62
51
+11
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#6
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#10
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
63-53
63
53
+10
H14/11
NBA
106.1Avg total
56.7Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.350.4107.8+6.970%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.951.7111.6+8.276%-
Last 30 away (13)53.948.8102.7+5.262%-
Last 10 (10)56.749.4106.1+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.449.6105.0+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)59.058.0117.0+1.050%-
vs Similar (11)52.652.7105.4-0.145%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)60.248.1108.2+12.188%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.031.2
56.7%
54.0%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.410.1
32.2%
35.1%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.919.6
78.7%
77.2%19.6
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 115.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.2 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.429.3
53.9%
54.0%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.011.7
35.5%
35.1%35.1
🏀 Free throws26.321.3
81.0%
77.2%21.3
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLWWLWL
Houston Rockets
WWWLLWWLWW
#12
League position
#4
-1.6
Net rating
+4.5
110.1
Offensive rating
115.9
111.6
Defensive rating
111.4
53.6%
Effective FG%
53.6%
54.0%
Opp. effective FG%
54.1%
11.1%
Turnover %
13.9%
16.8%
Off. rebound %
32.7%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
32.2%
3-point %
35.5%
65.9%
Assist %
63.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence110.1 · 115.9Defence111.6 · 111.4Shooting53.6% · 53.6%3-point %32.2% · 35.5%Ball care11.1% · 13.9%Off. rebounds16.8% · 32.7%Free throws0.29 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Houston Rockets wins
DateGameScore
10/11/26Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets110-100
12/03/26Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets129-93
20/12/25Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets101-115
16/12/25Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets128-125 OT
22/11/25Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets109-112
13/04/25Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets111-126
23/03/25Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets111-116
16/01/25Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets108-128
09/12/23Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets106-114
30/11/23Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets134-124
Denver Nuggetslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-118
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
Houston Rocketslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HUtah Jazz125-118
12/11/26HGolden State Warriors115-108
10/11/26HDenver Nuggets110-100
08/11/26APhoenix Suns99-102
05/11/26HMinnesota Timberwolves107-117
03/11/26HBoston Celtics109-93
01/11/26HOklahoma City Thunder119-98
31/10/26ADallas Mavericks111-116
29/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks132-100
27/10/26HAtlanta Hawks120-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW60%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayWWWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game114.5123.2108.7
Allowed / game113.3124.0106.2
Point differential+1.2-0.8+2.5
Avg total227.8247.2214.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %10%25%0%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW77%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %77%88%60%
Points / game116.2116.6115.4
Allowed / game107.4106.8108.4
Point differential+8.8+9.9+7.0
Avg total223.5223.4223.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
5 Philadelphia 76ers1310377%111.2109.4+1.8
6 Minnesota Timberwolves129375%119.3105.9+13.4
7 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
8 Detroit Pistons118373%115.5107.8+7.7
9 Memphis Grizzlies128467%119.9111.8+8.1
10 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
11 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
12 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
13 Dallas Mavericks127558%113.2112.2+1.0
14 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
15 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
16 Miami Heat126650%117.2120.1-2.9
17 Cleveland Cavaliers136746%116.8115.8+1.0
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers135838%111.2113.2-2.1
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans134931%116.5125.6-9.2
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
27 Chicago Bulls112918%114.4127.7-13.4
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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