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Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 23 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 111-116
27-27 30-30 22-39 32-20
Position#4
Record45-24
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.1
Allowed / game109.2
vs
Position#9
Record44-27
FormWLWLL
Points / game120.8
Allowed / game116.9
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets
14 Feb 2027
HOU v DEN
upcoming
09 Nov 2026
HOU v DEN
upcoming
21 Nov 2025
HOU109
DEN112
13 Apr 2025
HOU111
DEN126
23 Mar 2025
HOU111
DEN116
24 Nov 2023
HOU105
DEN86
12 Nov 2023
HOU107
DEN104
04 Apr 2023
HOU124
DEN103
28 Feb 2023
HOU112
DEN133
01 Jan 2022
HOU111
DEN124
16 Apr 2021
HOU99
DEN128
22 Jan 2020
HOU121
DEN105
31 Dec 2019
HOU130
DEN104
28 Mar 2019
HOU112
DEN85
07 Jan 2019
HOU125
DEN113
09 Feb 2018
HOU130
DEN104
22 Nov 2017
HOU125
DEN95
05 Apr 2017
HOU110
DEN104
20 Mar 2017
HOU125
DEN124
28 Oct 2015
HOU85
DEN105
19 Mar 2015
HOU118
DEN108
13 Dec 2014
HOU108
DEN96
06 Apr 2014
HOU130
DEN125
16 Nov 2013
HOU122
DEN111
23 Jan 2013
HOU95
DEN105
07 Nov 2012
HOU87
DEN93
16 Apr 2012
HOU102
DEN105
02 Mar 2012
HOU105
DEN117
14 Feb 2011
HOU121
DEN102
30 Oct 2010
HOU94
DEN107
15 Mar 2010
HOU125
DEN123
27 Jan 2010
HOU92
DEN97
19 Jan 2009
HOU115
DEN113
16 Dec 2008
HOU108
DEN96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
102-115
102
115
-13
89avg 104
A05/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
109-97
109
97
+12
110avg 104
A07/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
146-117
146
117
+29
144avg 104
H09/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
97-84
97
84
+13
91avg 104
H11/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
111-104
111
104
+7
100avg 104
H13/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
133-96
133
96
+37
133avg 104
H15/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
117-114
117
114
+3
105avg 104
H16/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
144-137 OT
144
137
+7
141avg 104
H18/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
116-108
116
108
+8
109avg 104
A19/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
W
102-98
102
98
+4
87avg 104
A22/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-30
27-37
26-23
19-25
31-34
25-25
33-15
20-23
39-28
35-30
35-25
37-34
23-19
28-27
24-16
22-22
32-27
25-25
31-27
23-25
27-25
35-24
37-21
34-26
22-29
38-36
25-18
32-31
28-44
29-34
45-24
29-29
28-23
28-29
32-20
28-36
23-27
28-32
27-21
24-18
224.7Avg total
117.7Scored
107.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (69)114.1109.2223.3+4.965%
Season at home (35)113.7107.0220.7+6.771%
Season away (34)114.6111.5226.1+3.059%
Last 10 (10)117.7107.0224.7+10.790%
Last 5 (5)122.4110.6233.0+11.8100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)121.5122.0243.5-0.575%
vs Similar ◀ (8)108.5113.8222.2-5.225%
vs Weaker (18)112.4106.5218.9+5.972%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
116-110
116
110
+6
111avg 113
H06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
149-141 OT
149
141
+8
153avg 113
H08/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
103-127
103
127
-24
87avg 113
A09/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
140-127
140
127
+13
144avg 113
A11/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
95-115
95
115
-20
80avg 113
H13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
131-126
131
126
+5
126avg 113
H15/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
123-126
123
126
-3
124avg 113
H16/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
114-105
114
105
+9
114avg 113
A18/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
108-120
108
120
-12
100avg 113
A20/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
109-128
109
128
-19
102avg 113
A22/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-42
26-23
29-28
32-17
37-28
31-28
34-35
23-34
29-28
31-33
23-25
20-41
34-32
33-41
34-26
39-28
26-34
22-23
27-32
20-26
32-40
39-27
31-32
29-27
44-30
28-33
23-32
28-31
29-22
33-28
27-27
25-28
29-46
30-27
18-32
31-15
30-30
29-24
23-34
27-40
241.3Avg total
118.8Scored
122.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (71)120.8116.9237.7+3.962%
Season at home (34)122.8116.9239.7+6.068%
Season away (37)118.9117.0235.9+1.957%
Last 10 (10)118.8122.5241.3-3.750%
Last 5 (5)117.0121.0238.0-4.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)115.3121.3236.7-6.033%
vs Similar ◀ (14)114.9115.9230.8-1.157%
vs Weaker (13)129.8120.1249.9+9.877%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-13-7+0+7+13Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +10.5+10.5Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -1.3-1.3
-13-7+0+7+13Q1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q1: -1.3-1.3Q2Q2: -0.1-0.1Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +10.5+10.5Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: -0.1-0.1Q4: -1.3-1.3
Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
57-67
57
67
-10
A05/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
L
56-59
56
59
-3
A07/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
74-58
74
58
+16
H09/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
51-46
51
46
+5
H11/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H13/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
62-49
62
49
+13
H15/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
60-65
60
65
-5
H16/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
L
57-78
57
78
-21
H18/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
W
56-52
56
52
+4
A19/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#20
L
51-59
51
59
-8
A22/03
NBA
116.6Avg total
58.1Scored
58.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.856.7113.5+0.150%-
Last 30 at home (16)56.356.7113.0-0.444%-
Last 30 away (14)57.456.8114.1+0.657%-
Last 10 (10)58.158.5116.6-0.450%-
Last 5 (5)57.260.6117.8-3.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)61.255.5116.8+5.875%-
vs Similar ◀ (8)60.160.8120.9-0.650%-
vs Weaker (18)54.355.2109.6-0.944%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
55-65
55
65
-10
H06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
68-56
68
56
+12
H08/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-61
60
61
-1
A09/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
67-73
67
73
-6
A11/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
48-57
48
57
-9
H13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H15/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H16/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
62-50
62
50
+12
A18/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
59-73
59
73
-14
A20/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A22/03
NBA
124.0Avg total
62.1Scored
61.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)63.259.6122.8+3.667%-
Last 30 at home (14)66.159.1125.1+7.071%-
Last 30 away (16)60.660.1120.7+0.662%-
Last 10 (10)62.161.9124.0+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)64.661.4126.0+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)58.365.0123.3-6.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)59.959.6119.6+0.357%-
vs Weaker (13)67.858.3126.1+9.592%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 117.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.7 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.930.3
54.2%
54.3%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.113.9
37.5%
35.9%41.7
🏀 Free throws22.315.4
69.1%
77.8%15.4
They take 93.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 118.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.530.8
56.5%
54.3%61.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.613.1
37.9%
35.9%39.3
🏀 Free throws23.217.9
77.2%
77.8%17.9
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
WWWWWWWWWL
Denver Nuggets
LLWLWLWLWW
#4
League position
#9
+10.9
Net rating
-3.6
118.0
Offensive rating
116.4
107.1
Defensive rating
120.1
55.0%
Effective FG%
56.6%
52.5%
Opp. effective FG%
57.3%
13.7%
Turnover %
13.6%
36.2%
Off. rebound %
27.2%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.26
37.5%
3-point %
37.9%
56.6%
Assist %
67.9%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence118.0 · 116.4Defence107.1 · 120.1Shooting55.0% · 56.6%3-point %37.5% · 37.9%Ball care13.7% · 13.6%Off. rebounds36.2% · 27.2%Free throws0.24 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)90% · 50%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Houston Rockets wins
5
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/25AMiami Heat102-98
19/03/25AOrlando Magic116-108
18/03/25HPhiladelphia 76ers144-137 OT
16/03/25HChicago Bulls117-114
15/03/25HDallas Mavericks133-96
13/03/25HPhoenix Suns111-104
11/03/25HOrlando Magic97-84
09/03/25HNew Orleans Pelicans146-117
07/03/25ANew Orleans Pelicans109-97
05/03/25AIndiana Pacers102-115
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/03/25APortland Trail Blazers109-128
20/03/25ALos Angeles Lakers108-120
18/03/25AGolden State Warriors114-105
16/03/25HWashington Wizards123-126
15/03/25HLos Angeles Lakers131-126
13/03/25HMinnesota Timberwolves95-115
11/03/25AOklahoma City Thunder140-127
09/03/25AOklahoma City Thunder103-127
08/03/25HPhoenix Suns149-141 OT
06/03/25HSacramento Kings116-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW65%
HomeWWWWW71%
AwayLLWWW59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games693534
Win %65%71%59%
Points / game114.1113.7114.6
Allowed / game109.2107.0111.5
Point differential+4.9+6.7+3.0
Avg total223.3220.7226.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%37%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (22)67% (9)62% (13)
Overtime %6%6%6%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLL62%
HomeWWLWL68%
AwayLWWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games713437
Win %62%68%57%
Points / game120.8122.8118.9
Allowed / game116.9116.9117.0
Point differential+3.9+6.0+1.9
Avg total237.7239.7235.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%44%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won61% (18)56% (9)67% (9)
Overtime %7%3%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder68561282%120.2107.2+13.0
2 Cleveland Cavaliers71571480%122.3111.9+10.4
3 Boston Celtics71521973%116.7108.0+8.7
4 Houston Rockets69452465%114.1109.2+4.9
5 New York Knicks69442564%116.6112.3+4.3
6 Denver Nuggets71442762%120.8116.9+3.9
7 Los Angeles Lakers70432761%112.8111.9+0.9
8 Memphis Grizzlies71432861%122.1116.9+5.2
9 Golden State Warriors70412959%113.7111.2+2.5
10 Indiana Pacers70412959%116.6115.3+1.2
11 Los Angeles Clippers70403057%111.9108.5+3.4
12 Minnesota Timberwolves72413157%113.7109.2+4.5
13 Milwaukee Bucks68383056%114.6112.3+2.3
14 Detroit Pistons72403256%115.3113.1+2.2
15 Sacramento Kings70353550%116.5115.8+0.7
16 Atlanta Hawks69343549%118.0119.7-1.8
17 Dallas Mavericks70343649%115.2115.4-0.2
18 Phoenix Suns71343748%114.7115.8-1.1
19 Orlando Magic70333747%104.8106.0-1.3
20 Portland Trail Blazers72324044%111.0114.1-3.2
21 San Antonio Spurs70313944%114.6116.1-1.6
22 Chicago Bulls71314044%117.1119.7-2.6
23 Miami Heat71304142%109.2110.6-1.5
24 Toronto Raptors71244734%110.4115.9-5.5
25 Philadelphia 76ers71234832%110.1115.7-5.5
26 Brooklyn Nets71234832%105.4111.4-6.1
27 New Orleans Pelicans72195326%110.5119.5-8.9
28 Charlotte Hornets71185325%105.8114.0-8.2
29 Utah Jazz72165622%112.0119.8-7.8
30 Washington Wizards70155521%108.7120.7-12.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Houston Rockets27302232111
Denver Nuggets27303920116
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