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Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 13 Apr 2025
Tip-off: 19:30
Final 111-126
23-36 29-29 19-37 40-24
Position#4
Record51-28
FormWWWLL
Points / game114.9
Allowed / game109.8
vs
Position#9
Record49-32
FormLLLWW
Points / game120.7
Allowed / game116.9
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets
14 Feb 2027
HOU v DEN
upcoming
09 Nov 2026
HOU110
DEN100
21 Nov 2025
HOU109
DEN112
13 Apr 2025
HOU111
DEN126
23 Mar 2025
HOU111
DEN116
24 Nov 2023
HOU105
DEN86
12 Nov 2023
HOU107
DEN104
04 Apr 2023
HOU124
DEN103
28 Feb 2023
HOU112
DEN133
01 Jan 2022
HOU111
DEN124
16 Apr 2021
HOU99
DEN128
22 Jan 2020
HOU121
DEN105
31 Dec 2019
HOU130
DEN104
28 Mar 2019
HOU112
DEN85
07 Jan 2019
HOU125
DEN113
09 Feb 2018
HOU130
DEN104
22 Nov 2017
HOU125
DEN95
05 Apr 2017
HOU110
DEN104
20 Mar 2017
HOU125
DEN124
28 Oct 2015
HOU85
DEN105
19 Mar 2015
HOU118
DEN108
13 Dec 2014
HOU108
DEN96
06 Apr 2014
HOU130
DEN125
16 Nov 2013
HOU122
DEN111
23 Jan 2013
HOU95
DEN105
07 Nov 2012
HOU87
DEN93
16 Apr 2012
HOU102
DEN105
02 Mar 2012
HOU105
DEN117
14 Feb 2011
HOU121
DEN102
30 Oct 2010
HOU94
DEN107
15 Mar 2010
HOU125
DEN123
27 Jan 2010
HOU92
DEN97
19 Jan 2009
HOU115
DEN113
16 Dec 2008
HOU108
DEN96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
111-116
111
116
-5
100avg 105
H23/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
121-114
121
114
+7
109avg 105
H26/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
121-110
121
110
+11
110avg 105
A28/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
148-109
148
109
+39
147avg 105
A31/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
98-104
98
104
-6
93avg 105
A01/04
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
143-105
143
105
+38
142avg 105
H03/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
125-111
125
111
+14
118avg 105
H05/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
106-96
106
96
+10
98avg 105
A07/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
117-134
117
134
-17
107avg 105
A10/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
109-140
109
140
-31
95avg 105
A12/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-27
30-30
22-39
32-20
30-23
35-25
29-26
27-40
27-24
26-27
36-29
32-30
32-24
46-25
34-24
36-36
19-16
29-32
29-34
21-22
33-26
37-20
32-29
41-30
35-28
34-25
27-32
29-26
18-24
33-26
32-26
23-20
35-36
23-35
33-34
26-29
32-38
24-40
31-29
22-33
233.8Avg total
119.9Scored
113.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (79)114.9109.8224.7+5.165%
Season at home (39)114.9107.4222.3+7.472%
Season away (40)114.8112.1227.0+2.757%
Last 10 (10)119.9113.9233.8+6.060%
Last 5 (5)120.0117.2237.2+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)126.5124.0250.5+2.550%
vs Similar ◀ (9)106.9113.6220.4-6.733%
vs Weaker (19)119.1107.9226.9+11.284%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 114
A23/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
119-129
119
129
-10
116avg 114
H25/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
W
127-117
127
117
+10
128avg 114
H27/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
129-93
129
93
+36
137avg 114
H29/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
139-140 OT
139
140
-1
139avg 114
H02/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
106-113
106
113
-7
97avg 114
H03/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
104-118
104
118
-14
106avg 114
A05/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
120-125
120
125
-5
119avg 114
H07/04
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
124-116
124
116
+8
122avg 114
A10/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
117-109
117
109
+8
116avg 114
H12/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-27
30-30
39-22
20-32
35-27
30-38
30-30
24-34
38-27
29-37
33-28
27-25
26-15
31-32
29-18
43-28
32-26
21-26
26-32
33-28
21-33
33-33
31-22
21-25
44-34
16-32
24-30
20-22
33-24
33-37
31-37
23-27
33-25
33-33
27-25
31-33
28-35
25-24
39-36
25-14
237.2Avg total
120.1Scored
117.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (81)120.7116.9237.6+3.860%
Season at home (41)122.8117.0239.8+5.763%
Season away (40)118.6116.8235.4+1.857%
Last 10 (10)120.1117.1237.2+3.050%
Last 5 (5)114.2116.2230.4-2.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)115.3121.3236.7-6.033%
vs Similar ◀ (17)117.3116.5233.8+0.859%
vs Weaker (10)126.4118.8245.2+7.660%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +4.4+4.4Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: -4.1-4.1Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -0.1-0.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +4.4+4.4Q2Q2: +3.2+3.2Q2: -4.1-4.1Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: -0.1-0.1
Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#9
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H23/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
65-48
65
48
+17
H26/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
53-51
53
51
+2
A28/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
78-49
78
49
+29
A31/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
D
48-48
48
48
+0
A01/04
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
70-46
70
46
+24
H03/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
69-53
69
53
+16
H05/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
51-50
51
50
+1
A07/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
58-71
58
71
-13
A10/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
56-78
56
78
-22
A12/04
NBA
115.6Avg total
60.5Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.157.2115.3+0.947%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.255.8114.9+3.453%-
Last 30 away (13)56.659.1115.7-2.538%-
Last 10 (10)60.555.1115.6+5.460%-
Last 5 (5)60.859.6120.4+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)65.558.0123.5+7.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)55.662.1117.7-6.622%-
vs Weaker (19)58.554.8113.3+3.758%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
D
57-57
57
57
+0
A23/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
D
65-65
65
65
+0
H25/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
W
67-64
67
64
+3
H27/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
57-47
57
47
+10
H29/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
53-52
53
52
+1
H02/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
54-66
54
66
-12
H03/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A05/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
66-61
66
61
+5
H07/04
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
66-58
66
58
+8
A10/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
53-59
53
59
-6
H12/04
NBA
119.3Avg total
59.8Scored
59.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.459.6121.0+1.960%-
Last 30 at home (17)61.959.1121.0+2.965%-
Last 30 away (13)60.860.2121.0+0.554%-
Last 10 (10)59.859.5119.3+0.350%-
Last 5 (5)59.862.0121.8-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)58.365.0123.3-6.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)59.959.8119.8+0.159%-
vs Weaker (10)64.957.5122.4+7.480%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 119.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.6 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.031.1
54.6%
54.3%62.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.814.2
38.6%
35.9%42.6
🏀 Free throws20.715.1
72.9%
77.8%15.1
They take 93.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 120.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers67.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.233.8
60.1%
54.3%67.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.111.1
34.6%
35.9%33.3
🏀 Free throws26.219.2
73.3%
77.8%19.2
They take 88.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Apr 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
LLWWWLWWWL
Denver Nuggets
WWLLLLWWLW
#4
League position
#9
+5.9
Net rating
+2.9
118.0
Offensive rating
117.3
112.1
Defensive rating
114.4
55.9%
Effective FG%
57.1%
55.6%
Opp. effective FG%
53.9%
11.9%
Turnover %
13.0%
30.2%
Off. rebound %
24.9%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.30
38.6%
3-point %
34.6%
56.7%
Assist %
70.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence118.0 · 117.3Defence112.1 · 114.4Shooting55.9% · 57.1%3-point %38.6% · 34.6%Ball care11.9% · 13.0%Off. rebounds30.2% · 24.9%Free throws0.22 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Houston Rockets wins
5
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/04/25ALos Angeles Lakers109-140
10/04/25ALos Angeles Clippers117-134
07/04/25AGolden State Warriors106-96
05/04/25HOklahoma City Thunder125-111
03/04/25HUtah Jazz143-105
01/04/25ALos Angeles Lakers98-104
31/03/25APhoenix Suns148-109
28/03/25AUtah Jazz121-110
26/03/25HAtlanta Hawks121-114
23/03/25HDenver Nuggets111-116
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/04/25HMemphis Grizzlies117-109
10/04/25ASacramento Kings124-116
07/04/25HIndiana Pacers120-125
05/04/25AGolden State Warriors104-118
03/04/25HSan Antonio Spurs106-113
02/04/25HMinnesota Timberwolves139-140 OT
29/03/25HUtah Jazz129-93
27/03/25HMilwaukee Bucks127-117
25/03/25HChicago Bulls119-129
23/03/25AHouston Rockets116-111

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL65%
HomeWLWWW72%
AwayWLWLL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games793940
Win %65%72%57%
Points / game114.9114.9114.8
Allowed / game109.8107.4112.1
Point differential+5.1+7.4+2.7
Avg total224.7222.3227.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%38%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won61% (23)60% (10)62% (13)
Overtime %5%5%5%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWW60%
HomeWLLLW63%
AwayLLWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games814140
Win %60%63%57%
Points / game120.7122.8118.6
Allowed / game116.9117.0116.8
Point differential+3.8+5.7+1.8
Avg total237.6239.8235.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%41%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (21)45% (11)70% (10)
Overtime %7%5%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder79651482%120.7107.9+12.8
2 Cleveland Cavaliers82641878%121.9112.4+9.5
3 Boston Celtics82612174%116.3107.2+9.1
4 Houston Rockets79512865%114.9109.8+5.1
5 New York Knicks81513063%116.0111.7+4.2
6 Los Angeles Lakers81503162%113.8112.2+1.6
7 Indiana Pacers82503261%117.4115.1+2.2
8 Los Angeles Clippers81493260%112.7108.1+4.7
9 Denver Nuggets81493260%120.7116.9+3.8
10 Golden State Warriors80483260%114.0110.6+3.5
11 Minnesota Timberwolves81483359%114.3109.3+4.9
12 Memphis Grizzlies81473458%121.6117.1+4.5
13 Milwaukee Bucks80463457%115.6113.2+2.4
14 Detroit Pistons82443854%115.5113.6+1.9
15 Orlando Magic81414051%105.4105.4-0.1
16 Dallas Mavericks80394149%114.5115.2-0.6
17 Atlanta Hawks80394149%118.5119.7-1.2
18 Sacramento Kings81394248%115.8115.5+0.3
19 Chicago Bulls82394348%117.8119.4-1.6
20 Miami Heat82374545%110.6110.0+0.6
21 Phoenix Suns81364544%113.8116.7-2.9
22 Portland Trail Blazers81354643%110.9114.3-3.4
23 San Antonio Spurs81334841%113.8116.7-2.9
24 Toronto Raptors81305137%110.8115.0-4.3
25 Brooklyn Nets82265632%105.1112.2-7.1
26 Philadelphia 76ers82245829%109.6115.8-6.2
27 New Orleans Pelicans81216026%110.0119.3-9.4
28 Charlotte Hornets82196323%105.1114.2-9.1
29 Washington Wizards82186422%108.0120.4-12.4
30 Utah Jazz81176421%112.0121.3-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Houston Rockets23291940111
Denver Nuggets36293724126
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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