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Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 12 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 129-93
24-20 29-27 40-22 36-24
Position#6
Record39-26
FormLWWLL
Points / game120.3
Allowed / game116.6
vs
Position#8
Record40-24
FormWLWLW
Points / game114.6
Allowed / game109.7
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets
20 Nov 2026
DEN v HOU
upcoming
11 Mar 2026
DEN129
HOU93
20 Dec 2025
DEN101
HOU115
15 Dec 2025
DEN128
HOU125
15 Jan 2025
DEN108
HOU128
08 Dec 2023
DEN106
HOU114
29 Nov 2023
DEN134
HOU124
30 Nov 2022
DEN120
HOU100
28 Nov 2022
DEN129
HOU113
04 Mar 2022
DEN116
HOU101
06 Nov 2021
DEN95
HOU94
24 Apr 2021
DEN129
HOU116
28 Dec 2020
DEN124
HOU111
26 Jan 2020
DEN117
HOU110
20 Nov 2019
DEN105
HOU95
01 Feb 2019
DEN136
HOU122
13 Nov 2018
DEN99
HOU109
25 Feb 2018
DEN114
HOU119
18 Mar 2017
DEN105
HOU109
02 Dec 2016
DEN110
HOU128
14 Dec 2015
DEN114
HOU108
13 Nov 2015
DEN107
HOU98
07 Mar 2015
DEN100
HOU114
17 Dec 2014
DEN111
HOU115
09 Apr 2014
DEN123
HOU116
06 Apr 2013
DEN132
HOU114
30 Jan 2013
DEN118
HOU110
15 Apr 2012
DEN101
HOU86
06 Feb 2012
DEN90
HOU99
07 Feb 2011
DEN103
HOU108
03 Jan 2011
DEN113
HOU106
16 Dec 2009
DEN111
HOU101
09 Mar 2009
DEN95
HOU97
30 Nov 2008
DEN104
HOU94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
114-115
114
115
-1
109avg 111
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
157-103
157
103
+54
168avg 111
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
117-128
117
128
-11
108avg 111
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
103-84
103
84
+19
97avg 111
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
121-127 OT
121
127
-6
108avg 111
A28/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
108-117
108
117
-9
99avg 111
H01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
128-125
128
125
+3
128avg 111
A03/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
120-113
120
113
+7
121avg 111
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
103-142
103
142
-39
93avg 111
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
126-129
126
129
-3
120avg 111
A09/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-25
28-20
25-33
37-37
41-27
41-26
43-32
32-18
27-39
40-37
34-19
16-33
21-24
26-24
30-19
26-17
33-19
26-31
24-27
24-30
31-22
19-36
32-32
26-27
33-34
33-33
34-26
28-32
32-22
32-32
29-32
27-27
29-27
23-38
28-40
23-37
40-37
20-29
33-30
33-33
238.0Avg total
119.7Scored
118.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)120.3116.6236.9+3.660%
Season at home (30)117.4115.3232.7+2.157%
Season away (35)122.7117.8240.5+4.963%
Last 10 (10)119.7118.3238.0+1.440%
Last 5 (5)117.0125.2242.2-8.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)119.3125.7245.0-6.30%
vs Similar ◀ (14)109.8115.1224.9-5.329%
vs Weaker (13)120.8112.3233.1+8.592%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
L
106-108
106
108
-2
102avg 108
A22/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
125-105
125
105
+20
134avg 108
H24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
128-97
128
97
+31
128avg 108
H26/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
113-108
113
108
+5
108avg 108
A27/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
105-115
105
115
-10
94avg 108
A28/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
123-118
123
118
+5
119avg 108
A03/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
113-115 OT
113
115
-2
104avg 108
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
106-99
106
99
+7
104avg 108
H07/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
120-145
120
145
-25
110avg 108
A09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
113-99
113
99
+14
110avg 108
H11/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-27
33-26
37-22
15-33
38-22
30-25
32-28
25-30
33-22
44-28
31-26
20-21
22-29
21-24
38-27
32-28
28-32
24-19
31-34
22-30
26-30
34-21
34-29
29-38
20-30
27-21
35-30
19-20
27-34
30-22
20-26
29-17
33-32
24-37
37-41
26-35
29-29
29-20
28-34
27-16
226.1Avg total
115.2Scored
110.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)114.6109.7224.3+4.962%
Season at home (30)113.5106.7220.2+6.873%
Season away (34)115.6112.3227.9+3.253%
Last 10 (10)115.2110.9226.1+4.360%
Last 5 (5)115.0115.2230.2-0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)101.5108.5210.0-7.050%
vs Similar ◀ (14)105.7107.4213.1-1.650%
vs Weaker (14)114.9109.6224.5+5.271%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +5.3+5.3Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: -2.4-2.4
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: -1.8-1.8Q2: +5.3+5.3Q3Q3: +2.2+2.2Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: -1.9-1.9Q4: -2.4-2.4
Denver NuggetsHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
82-53
82
53
+29
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
67-76
67
76
-9
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A28/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
66-67
66
67
-1
A03/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
64-54
64
54
+10
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
52-65
52
65
-13
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A09/03
NBA
118.1Avg total
59.9Scored
58.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.356.6113.8+0.743%-
Last 30 at home (15)55.755.7111.4-0.147%-
Last 30 away (15)58.957.4116.3+1.540%-
Last 10 (10)59.958.2118.1+1.740%-
Last 5 (5)58.462.0120.4-3.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)58.059.3117.3-1.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)53.255.9109.1-2.736%-
vs Weaker (13)61.556.6118.1+4.854%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#4
W
54-53
54
53
+1
A22/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
68-47
68
47
+21
H24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-50
77
50
+27
H26/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
L
43-53
43
53
-10
A27/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
52-51
52
51
+1
A28/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
60-51
60
51
+9
A03/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
47-51
47
51
-4
H06/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
57-56
57
56
+1
H07/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
57-69
57
69
-12
A09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
58-49
58
49
+9
H11/03
NBA
110.3Avg total
57.3Scored
53.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.954.0108.9+0.950%-
Last 30 at home (17)56.453.8110.2+2.647%-
Last 30 away (13)52.954.2107.2-1.354%-
Last 10 (10)57.353.0110.3+4.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.855.2111.0+0.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)47.053.5100.5-6.50%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)53.053.9106.9-0.950%-
vs Weaker (14)57.954.1112.0+3.957%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 119.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.2 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.228.6
55.9%
54.8%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.213.4
36.0%
35.8%40.2
🏀 Free throws28.422.3
78.5%
78.1%22.3
They take 88.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 115.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.831.8
57.0%
54.8%63.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.511.3
37.0%
35.8%33.9
🏀 Free throws22.217.7
79.7%
78.1%17.7
They take 86.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LLWWLLWLWL
Houston Rockets
WLWLWLWWWL
#6
League position
#8
+1.4
Net rating
+4.3
115.7
Offensive rating
115.2
114.3
Defensive rating
110.9
55.1%
Effective FG%
56.5%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
13.6%
Turnover %
16.8%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
35.2%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.26
36.0%
3-point %
37.0%
67.1%
Assist %
58.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.7 · 115.2Defence114.3 · 110.9Shooting55.1% · 56.5%3-point %36.0% · 37.0%Ball care13.6% · 16.8%Off. rebounds23.9% · 35.2%Free throws0.32 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Denver Nuggets wins
5
Houston Rockets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/26AOklahoma City Thunder126-129
07/03/26HNew York Knicks103-142
06/03/26HLos Angeles Lakers120-113
03/03/26AUtah Jazz128-125
01/03/26HMinnesota Timberwolves108-117
28/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder121-127 OT
26/02/26HBoston Celtics103-84
22/02/26AGolden State Warriors117-128
21/02/26APortland Trail Blazers157-103
20/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers114-115
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/26HToronto Raptors113-99
09/03/26ASan Antonio Spurs120-145
07/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers106-99
06/03/26HGolden State Warriors113-115 OT
03/03/26AWashington Wizards123-118
28/02/26AMiami Heat105-115
27/02/26AOrlando Magic113-108
26/02/26HSacramento Kings128-97
24/02/26HUtah Jazz125-105
22/02/26ANew York Knicks106-108

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL60%
HomeWWLWL57%
AwayWLLWL63%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653035
Win %60%57%63%
Points / game120.3117.4122.7
Allowed / game116.6115.3117.8
Point differential+3.6+2.1+4.9
Avg total236.9232.7240.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%30%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won48% (23)44% (9)50% (14)
Overtime %9%7%11%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW62%
HomeWWLWW73%
AwayLWLWL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643034
Win %62%73%53%
Points / game114.6113.5115.6
Allowed / game109.7106.7112.3
Point differential+4.9+6.8+3.2
Avg total224.3220.2227.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%30%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won52% (21)60% (10)45% (11)
Overtime %11%7%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder64501478%118.6108.1+10.5
2 San Antonio Spurs63461773%118.6111.5+7.1
3 Detroit Pistons64461872%117.0109.6+7.4
4 Boston Celtics65432266%114.5107.2+7.3
5 Houston Rockets64402462%114.6109.7+4.9
6 Los Angeles Lakers64402462%115.9114.6+1.3
7 New York Knicks65402562%117.0111.0+6.0
8 Minnesota Timberwolves65402562%118.4114.5+3.9
9 Cleveland Cavaliers66402661%118.8114.8+4.0
10 Denver Nuggets65392660%120.3116.6+3.6
11 Phoenix Suns64382659%112.7110.6+2.1
12 Miami Heat65372857%120.8116.7+4.1
13 Orlando Magic62352756%115.2113.5+1.6
14 Toronto Raptors64362856%113.6111.8+1.8
15 Philadelphia 76ers65353054%115.9116.3-0.3
16 Atlanta Hawks65343152%117.8117.2+0.6
17 Charlotte Hornets66333350%115.7112.3+3.4
18 Los Angeles Clippers64323250%112.8112.3+0.5
19 Golden State Warriors65323349%115.2114.2+1.0
20 Portland Trail Blazers66313547%115.1117.8-2.6
21 Milwaukee Bucks64273742%111.1116.0-4.9
22 Chicago Bulls65273842%115.6119.9-4.2
23 Memphis Grizzlies64234136%115.9118.3-2.4
24 New Orleans Pelicans67224533%115.6120.0-4.4
25 Dallas Mavericks65214432%113.0117.8-4.9
26 Utah Jazz66204630%117.4125.0-7.6
27 Brooklyn Nets65174826%107.0115.9-8.9
28 Washington Wizards64164825%112.6123.7-11.1
29 Sacramento Kings66165024%110.7120.9-10.3
30 Indiana Pacers65155023%111.4119.9-8.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets24294036129
Houston Rockets2027222493
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