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Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 16 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 02:30
Final 128-125 (OT)
24-30 34-21 31-35 28-31 11-8
Position#6
Record18-6
FormLWWWW
Points / game125.5
Allowed / game115.9
vs
Position#8
Record16-6
FormLWWLW
Points / game120.6
Allowed / game110.4
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Houston Rockets
20 Nov 2026
DEN v HOU
upcoming
11 Mar 2026
DEN129
HOU93
20 Dec 2025
DEN101
HOU115
15 Dec 2025
DEN128
HOU125
15 Jan 2025
DEN108
HOU128
08 Dec 2023
DEN106
HOU114
29 Nov 2023
DEN134
HOU124
30 Nov 2022
DEN120
HOU100
28 Nov 2022
DEN129
HOU113
04 Mar 2022
DEN116
HOU101
06 Nov 2021
DEN95
HOU94
24 Apr 2021
DEN129
HOU116
28 Dec 2020
DEN124
HOU111
26 Jan 2020
DEN117
HOU110
20 Nov 2019
DEN105
HOU95
01 Feb 2019
DEN136
HOU122
13 Nov 2018
DEN99
HOU109
25 Feb 2018
DEN114
HOU119
18 Mar 2017
DEN105
HOU109
02 Dec 2016
DEN110
HOU128
14 Dec 2015
DEN114
HOU108
13 Nov 2015
DEN107
HOU98
07 Mar 2015
DEN100
HOU114
17 Dec 2014
DEN111
HOU115
09 Apr 2014
DEN123
HOU116
06 Apr 2013
DEN132
HOU114
30 Jan 2013
DEN118
HOU110
15 Apr 2012
DEN101
HOU86
06 Feb 2012
DEN90
HOU99
07 Feb 2011
DEN103
HOU108
03 Jan 2011
DEN113
HOU106
16 Dec 2009
DEN111
HOU101
09 Mar 2009
DEN95
HOU97
30 Nov 2008
DEN104
HOU94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#8
W
112-109
112
109
+3
111avg 115
A22/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
123-128
123
128
-5
114avg 115
H23/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
125-115
125
115
+10
124avg 115
A25/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
136-139
136
139
-3
130avg 115
H29/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
130-112
130
112
+18
139avg 115
A30/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
121-131
121
131
-10
119avg 115
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
135-120
135
120
+15
129avg 115
A04/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
134-133
134
133
+1
129avg 115
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
115-106
115
106
+9
110avg 115
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
136-105
136
105
+31
139avg 115
A12/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-12
21-37
34-29
32-31
35-30
30-31
27-30
31-37
27-23
35-31
31-31
32-30
33-41
41-18
30-44
32-36
30-25
33-35
33-25
34-27
41-27
27-42
36-33
17-29
33-28
39-20
30-31
33-41
23-41
31-32
40-30
40-30
34-34
23-24
30-23
28-25
41-26
36-28
32-27
27-24
246.5Avg total
126.7Scored
119.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (24)125.5115.9241.4+9.675%
Season at home (10)126.0116.7242.7+9.360%
Season away (14)125.1115.3240.4+9.986%
Last 10 (10)126.7119.8246.5+6.970%
Last 5 (5)128.2119.0247.2+9.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)103.8114.8218.7-11.033%
vs Similar ◀ (10)126.2116.4242.6+9.890%
vs Weaker (14)125.0115.5240.5+9.564%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
114-104
114
104
+10
107avg 107
A20/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
109-112
109
112
-3
93avg 107
H22/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
114-92
114
92
+22
108avg 107
A25/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
104-100
104
100
+4
90avg 107
A27/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
129-101
129
101
+28
130avg 107
A30/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
125-133
125
133
-8
115avg 107
A02/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
121-95
121
95
+26
123avg 107
H04/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
117-98
117
98
+19
118avg 107
H06/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
109-122
109
122
-13
99avg 107
A07/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
115-113
115
113
+2
109avg 107
H12/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-19
24-21
17-30
40-34
12-25
37-21
29-34
31-32
30-23
29-27
25-25
30-17
22-25
25-34
27-17
30-24
30-21
37-27
31-20
31-33
32-31
25-37
32-30
36-35
28-26
23-26
36-19
34-24
24-31
44-27
29-14
20-26
26-29
31-28
20-37
32-28
29-29
22-25
27-28
37-31
222.7Avg total
115.7Scored
107.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (22)120.6110.4231.0+10.273%
Season at home (10)121.2108.5229.7+12.780%
Season away (12)120.2112.0232.2+8.267%
Last 10 (10)115.7107.0222.7+8.770%
Last 5 (5)117.4112.2229.6+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)124.0125.0249.0-1.00%
vs Similar ◀ (17)111.5107.7219.2+3.853%
vs Weaker (12)122.8110.6233.3+12.283%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +3.7+3.7
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.5+3.5Q1: +0.7+0.7Q2Q2: +1.8+1.8Q2: +2.4+2.4Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: +1.9+1.9Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +3.7+3.7
Denver NuggetsHouston Rockets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#8
L
46-49
46
49
-3
A22/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
65-61
65
61
+4
H23/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
62-54
62
54
+8
A25/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
74-59
74
59
+15
H29/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
63-60
63
60
+3
A30/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
72-48
72
48
+24
A04/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
54-73
54
73
-19
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-54
77
54
+23
A12/12
NBA
122.3Avg total
63.8Scored
58.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.558.3118.8+2.260%-
Last 30 at home (13)61.756.2117.9+5.569%-
Last 30 away (17)59.659.9119.5-0.353%-
Last 10 (10)63.858.5122.3+5.360%-
Last 5 (5)65.660.4126.0+5.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)50.560.0110.5-9.517%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)60.860.6121.4+0.240%-
vs Weaker (14)64.655.9120.5+8.693%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
57-40
57
40
+17
A20/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
49-46
49
46
+3
H22/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A25/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
47-59
47
59
-12
A27/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
67-48
67
48
+19
A30/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
57-68
57
68
-11
A02/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H04/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
68-58
68
58
+10
H06/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
D
57-57
57
57
+0
A07/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
51-54
51
54
-3
H12/12
NBA
109.5Avg total
56.3Scored
53.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.253.5110.8+3.760%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.454.3111.7+3.153%-
Last 30 away (15)57.152.7109.8+4.367%-
Last 10 (10)56.353.2109.5+3.150%-
Last 5 (5)56.857.8114.6-1.020%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)57.051.0108.0+6.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)55.651.5107.1+4.265%-
vs Weaker (12)59.556.7116.2+2.850%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 126.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.5 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.630.6
59.3%
54.8%61.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.215.5
44.0%
35.8%46.5
🏀 Free throws24.019.0
79.2%
78.1%19.0
They take 86.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 115.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.532.6
53.9%
54.8%65.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.210.5
36.0%
35.8%31.5
🏀 Free throws23.919.0
79.5%
78.1%19.0
They take 89.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 33% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 16 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWWWLWLWLW
Houston Rockets
WLWWLWWWLW
#6
League position
#8
+6.9
Net rating
+8.8
127.0
Offensive rating
117.0
120.1
Defensive rating
108.2
62.0%
Effective FG%
53.9%
56.6%
Opp. effective FG%
52.5%
12.4%
Turnover %
15.3%
25.9%
Off. rebound %
38.6%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.27
44.0%
3-point %
36.0%
65.7%
Assist %
57.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence127.0 · 117.0Defence120.1 · 108.2Shooting62.0% · 53.9%3-point %44.0% · 36.0%Ball care12.4% · 15.3%Off. rebounds25.9% · 38.6%Free throws0.28 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Houston Rockets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Denver Nuggets wins
5
Houston Rockets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/12/25ASacramento Kings136-105
07/12/25ACharlotte Hornets115-106
06/12/25AAtlanta Hawks134-133
04/12/25AIndiana Pacers135-120
02/12/25HDallas Mavericks121-131
30/11/25APhoenix Suns130-112
29/11/25HSan Antonio Spurs136-139
25/11/25AMemphis Grizzlies125-115
23/11/25HSacramento Kings123-128
22/11/25AHouston Rockets112-109
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/12/25HLos Angeles Clippers115-113
07/12/25ADallas Mavericks109-122
06/12/25HPhoenix Suns117-98
04/12/25HSacramento Kings121-95
02/12/25AUtah Jazz125-133
30/11/25AUtah Jazz129-101
27/11/25AGolden State Warriors104-100
25/11/25APhoenix Suns114-92
22/11/25HDenver Nuggets109-112
20/11/25ACleveland Cavaliers114-104

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW75%
HomeWLLLL60%
AwayWWWWW86%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games241014
Win %75%60%86%
Points / game125.5126.0125.1
Allowed / game115.9116.7115.3
Point differential+9.6+9.3+9.9
Avg total241.4242.7240.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+54%50%57%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %4%0%7%
Houston Rockets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW73%
HomeWLWWW80%
AwayWWWLL67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games221012
Win %73%80%67%
Points / game120.6121.2120.2
Allowed / game110.4108.5112.0
Point differential+10.2+12.7+8.2
Avg total231.0229.7232.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+50%50%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)50% (4)50% (2)
Overtime %9%10%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2423196%123.0106.9+16.2
2 Detroit Pistons2621581%119.3113.0+6.3
3 Denver Nuggets2418675%125.5115.9+9.6
4 Los Angeles Lakers2418675%118.2116.0+2.2
5 Houston Rockets2216673%120.6110.4+10.2
6 New York Knicks2316770%120.7112.4+8.3
7 San Antonio Spurs2316770%119.6115.3+4.3
8 Minnesota Timberwolves2617965%119.8114.5+5.3
9 Toronto Raptors26161062%116.0113.1+2.9
10 Orlando Magic24141058%117.8113.6+4.2
11 Boston Celtics26151158%116.2110.8+5.3
12 Miami Heat25141156%121.2117.8+3.5
13 Phoenix Suns25141156%115.8113.6+2.2
14 Philadelphia 76ers25141156%116.8115.8+1.0
15 Cleveland Cavaliers27151256%118.7115.9+2.8
16 Atlanta Hawks27151256%118.0117.4+0.6
17 Golden State Warriors27131448%114.4113.2+1.2
18 Memphis Grizzlies25111444%114.1115.9-1.8
19 Milwaukee Bucks27111641%113.9117.7-3.8
20 Chicago Bulls25101540%117.2122.4-5.1
21 Utah Jazz25101540%119.0126.1-7.1
22 Portland Trail Blazers26101638%118.2121.9-3.7
23 Dallas Mavericks27101737%112.9116.8-3.9
24 Charlotte Hornets2681831%114.8118.4-3.6
25 Brooklyn Nets2571828%110.2115.9-5.7
26 Los Angeles Clippers2561924%111.6116.7-5.0
27 Indiana Pacers2662023%110.2118.3-8.1
28 Sacramento Kings2662023%110.8122.4-11.5
29 New Orleans Pelicans2752219%114.2122.8-8.6
30 Washington Wizards2442017%112.8126.7-13.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Denver Nuggets2434312811128
Houston Rockets302135318125
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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