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Melbourne United vs Illawarra Hawks Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 13 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 06:30
Scheduled
Position#3
Record8-6
FormWWWLW
Points / game98.3
Allowed / game91.9
Melbourne United
Australia
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.2/10
Around normal
4.4/10
Below normal
Illawarra Hawks
Australia
Position#9
Record5-10
FormWWLWL
Points / game97.5
Allowed / game104.7
AustraliaNBLRound 21· John Cain Arena
Other2026-27
Meetings · Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks
13 Feb 2027
MELB v ILLA
upcoming
18 Oct 2026
MELB89
ILLA91
15 Feb 2026
MELB91
ILLA100
18 Dec 2025
MELB97
ILLA75
19 Mar 2025
MELB71
ILLA80
12 Mar 2025
MELB100
ILLA102
13 Dec 2024
MELB93
ILLA106
13 Mar 2024
MELB100
ILLA94
07 Mar 2024
MELB115
ILLA106
18 Feb 2024
MELB92
ILLA87
29 Oct 2023
MELB96
ILLA84
18 Dec 2022
MELB88
ILLA77
02 Apr 2022
MELB90
ILLA96
27 Mar 2022
MELB77
ILLA92
18 Apr 2021
MELB87
ILLA76
21 Mar 2021
MELB75
ILLA65
08 Feb 2020
MELB95
ILLA72
23 Jan 2019
MELB113
ILLA89
29 Oct 2018
MELB99
ILLA93
18 Feb 2018
MELB84
ILLA94
04 Dec 2017
MELB91
ILLA73
06 Feb 2017
MELB78
ILLA72
16 Oct 2016
MELB95
ILLA83
07 Jan 2016
MELB97
ILLA96
11 Oct 2015
MELB93
ILLA81
07 Feb 2015
MELB76
ILLA82
02 Nov 2014
MELB88
ILLA75
27 Dec 2013
MELB74
ILLA67
10 Nov 2013
MELB81
ILLA76
02 Mar 2013
MELB82
ILLA88
25 Nov 2012
MELB66
ILLA74
18 Mar 2012
MELB61
ILLA71
06 Feb 2011
MELB93
ILLA72
07 Nov 2010
MELB82
ILLA86
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Melbourne United win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Illawarra Hawks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Melbourne UnitedAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormUnited
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
96-91
96
91
+5
93avg 85
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
104-99
104
99
+5
102avg 85
A10/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
89-91
89
91
-2
81avg 85
H18/10
NBL
Perth
#6
L
102-103
102
103
-1
96avg 85
A23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
105-95
105
95
+10
93avg 85
H25/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
113-97
113
97
+16
109avg 85
A31/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
94-74
94
74
+20
no box
H02/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
W
120-92
120
92
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
93-101
93
101
-8
no box
A12/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
102-95
102
95
+7
no box
H14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-21
25-17
20-21
20-32
17-30
28-23
29-21
30-25
27-21
16-35
22-22
24-13
26-25
22-21
31-31
23-26
32-31
24-20
21-13
28-31
26-33
25-21
34-19
28-24
28-19
15-20
27-16
24-19
29-17
33-31
21-25
37-19
10-27
25-32
27-21
31-21
30-22
34-17
23-29
15-27
195.6Avg total
101.8Scored
93.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (14)98.391.9190.2+6.457%
Season at home (7)100.093.0193.0+7.057%
Season away (7)96.690.9187.4+5.757%
Last 10 (10)101.893.8195.6+8.070%
Last 5 (5)104.491.8196.2+12.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)94.097.0191.0-3.00%
vs Similar (6)84.887.5172.3-2.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (23)93.688.3181.9+5.257%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
112-122
112
122
-10
102avg 88
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
94avg 88
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
91-89
91
89
+2
80avg 88
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
82-108
82
108
-26
70avg 88
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
81-98
81
98
-17
61avg 88
H24/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
105-98
105
98
+7
104avg 88
A31/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
107-95
107
95
+12
no box
A05/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
78-106
78
106
-28
no box
A07/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
120-110
120
110
+10
no box
A11/11
NBL
Perth
#6
L
100-111 OT
100
111
-11
no box
A14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-32
25-35
26-24
39-31
27-28
23-29
27-29
23-24
21-27
35-16
22-22
13-24
19-20
17-28
16-34
30-26
16-25
19-30
27-14
19-29
24-19
27-25
27-25
27-29
32-35
29-27
26-20
20-13
21-22
16-27
23-36
18-21
28-23
43-31
24-27
25-29
30-26
18-24
18-19
26-23
202.3Avg total
97.6Scored
104.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)97.5104.7202.2-7.333%
Season at home (5)97.8106.0203.8-8.220%
Season away (10)97.3104.1201.4-6.840%
Last 10 (10)97.6104.7202.3-7.140%
Last 5 (5)102.0104.0206.0-2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)97.9106.7204.6-8.832%
vs Similar (9)96.796.0192.7+0.744%
vs Weaker (2)104.576.5181.0+28.0100%
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -1.4-1.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: -0.9-0.9
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.0+1.0Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: +1.0+1.0Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: -1.4-1.4Q4Q4: +2.3+2.3Q4: -0.9-0.9
Melbourne UnitedIllawarra Hawks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Melbourne UnitedLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
56-38
56
38
+18
A07/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
45-53
45
53
-8
A10/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
43-56
43
56
-13
H18/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
48-46
48
46
+2
A23/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H25/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
51-54
51
54
-3
A31/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
43-39
43
39
+4
H02/11
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
W
62-48
62
48
+14
H07/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
35-59
35
59
-24
A12/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
64-39
64
39
+25
H14/11
NBL
98.6Avg total
50.3Scored
48.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)46.845.492.2+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (16)48.143.891.9+4.262%-
Last 30 away (14)45.447.292.6-1.836%-
Last 10 (10)50.348.398.6+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)51.047.898.8+3.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)48.056.0104.0-8.00%-
vs Similar (6)45.545.090.5+0.550%-
vs Weaker ◀ (23)47.145.092.2+2.152%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
47-67
47
67
-20
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
35-55
35
55
-20
H24/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
61-62
61
62
-1
A05/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
37-49
37
49
-12
A07/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
71-54
71
54
+17
A11/11
NBL
Perth
#6
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A14/11
NBL
102.1Avg total
49.2Scored
52.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.751.099.7-2.333%-
Last 30 at home (11)46.950.597.5-3.627%-
Last 30 away (19)49.751.2100.9-1.537%-
Last 10 (10)49.252.9102.1-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)53.651.8105.4+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)48.252.3100.5-4.132%-
vs Similar (9)49.450.6100.0-1.133%-
vs Weaker (2)50.040.090.0+10.050%-
This opponent (Melbourne United) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Melbourne Unitedtheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Melbourne United: 96.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.9 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.026.1
56.7%
56.4%52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.78.3
32.3%
34.2%24.9
🏀 Free throws26.219.6
74.8%
74.0%19.6
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 96.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.125.6
56.8%
56.4%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.511.2
35.6%
34.2%33.6
🏀 Free throws16.512.1
73.3%
74.0%12.1
They take 76.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Melbourne United
WLWWWWLLWW
Illawarra Hawks
LWLWWLLWLL
#3
League position
#9
+4.9
Net rating
-8.7
100.1
Offensive rating
100.8
95.2
Defensive rating
109.5
53.8%
Effective FG%
55.4%
50.7%
Opp. effective FG%
57.4%
13.3%
Turnover %
12.1%
0.37
Free-throw rate
0.22
32.3%
3-point %
35.6%
55.8%
Assist %
59.5%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence100.1 · 100.8Defence95.2 · 109.5Shooting53.8% · 55.4%3-point %32.3% · 35.6%Ball care13.3% · 12.1%Free throws0.37 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)70% · 40%
■ Melbourne United   ■ Illawarra Hawks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Melbourne United wins
6
Illawarra Hawks wins
DateGameScore
18/10/26Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks89-91
15/02/26Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks91-100
18/12/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks97-75
21/11/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United102-105
05/11/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United107-93
23/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United114-104
19/03/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks71-80
16/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United77-83
12/03/25Melbourne United v Illawarra Hawks100-102
08/03/25Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United88-96
Melbourne Unitedlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HSouth East Melbourne102-95
12/11/26AAdelaide93-101
07/11/26HBrisbane Bullets120-92
02/11/26HNew Zealand Breakers94-74
31/10/26ACairns Taipans113-97
25/10/26HSydney105-95
23/10/26APerth102-103
18/10/26HIllawarra Hawks89-91
10/10/26ASouth East Melbourne104-99
07/10/26AAdelaide96-91
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26APerth100-111 OT
11/11/26ASouth East Melbourne120-110
07/11/26AAdelaide78-106
05/11/26ACairns Taipans107-95
31/10/26APerth105-98
24/10/26HBrisbane Bullets81-98
22/10/26HSydney82-108
18/10/26AMelbourne United91-89
11/10/26HCairns Taipans100-110
09/10/26HTasmania JackJumpers112-122

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Melbourne United
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW57%
HomeLWWWW57%
AwayWWLWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1477
Win %57%57%57%
Points / game98.3100.096.6
Allowed / game91.993.090.9
Point differential+6.4+7.0+5.7
Avg total190.2193.0187.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+36%43%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL33%
HomeWLLLL20%
AwayWWLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15510
Win %33%20%40%
Points / game97.597.897.3
Allowed / game104.7106.0104.1
Point differential-7.3-8.2-6.8
Avg total202.2203.8201.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%20%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %7%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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