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Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide Prediction & Stats

Date: Thu 19 Nov 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Projected 96-100
Projected total 195.9
Scheduled
Position#9
Record5-10
FormWWLWL
Points / game97.5
Allowed / game104.7
Illawarra Hawks
Australia
Vs
36%
64%
■ ILLA 36%■ ADEL 64%
Pythia win probability
Form · last 5 games
4.4/10
Below normal
5.3/10
Around normal
Adelaide
Australia
Position#5
Record7-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game92.5
AustraliaNBLRound 10· WIN Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide
19 Nov 2026
ILLA v ADEL
upcoming
02 Oct 2026
ILLA114
ADEL92
05 Feb 2026
ILLA100
ADEL99
20 Dec 2025
ILLA78
ADEL84
05 Oct 2024
ILLA100
ADEL102
20 Jan 2024
ILLA89
ADEL96
31 Dec 2023
ILLA91
ADEL84
03 Nov 2022
ILLA80
ADEL96
25 Feb 2022
ILLA87
ADEL71
24 Jan 2022
ILLA100
ADEL89
30 May 2021
ILLA97
ADEL83
11 May 2021
ILLA71
ADEL66
04 Mar 2021
ILLA98
ADEL89
21 Oct 2019
ILLA92
ADEL98
10 Jan 2019
ILLA96
ADEL102
25 Nov 2018
ILLA120
ADEL109
11 Feb 2018
ILLA87
ADEL111
21 Jan 2018
ILLA93
ADEL112
19 Feb 2017
ILLA100
ADEL94
28 Jan 2017
ILLA95
ADEL92
07 Oct 2016
ILLA122
ADEL88
12 Feb 2016
ILLA106
ADEL95
28 Jan 2016
ILLA104
ADEL97
22 Feb 2015
ILLA85
ADEL105
23 Jan 2015
ILLA85
ADEL89
28 Feb 2014
ILLA91
ADEL89
09 Feb 2014
ILLA102
ADEL80
23 Mar 2013
ILLA74
ADEL64
22 Feb 2013
ILLA90
ADEL91
25 Mar 2012
ILLA92
ADEL78
16 Oct 2011
ILLA97
ADEL89
12 Mar 2011
ILLA87
ADEL60
10 Dec 2010
ILLA81
ADEL79
Sections
Game preview & prediction

Illawarra Hawks host Adelaide on 19 November 2026 in the NBL, with Adelaide the model favourite and a 64% chance to win against the Hawks' 36% odds; the projected score is 96-100 and the total is 195.9 points, with a 5% chance of overtime. The Hawks are 5-9 this season, scoring 97.3 points per game while allowing 104.3, and are 1-4 at home with 97.8 points scored and 106.0 allowed; they won three of their last five games, including a 120-110 win over South East Melbourne, a 107-95 win over Cairns Taipans, but fell 78-106 to Adelaide on 7 November. Adelaide is 7-6 overall, averaging 92.9 points and conceding 92.5, and 4-3 on the road with 95.1 points scored and 97.4 allowed; they won three of their last five, notably beating Melbourne United 101-93 at home and defeating Illawarra Hawks 106-78 at home on 7 November, before losing 89-96 to Brisbane Bullets at home. In their 10 meetings Adelaide has won eight, most recently triumphing 106-78 over Illawarra on 7 November, a result that echoes the current projected margin.

Written by Pythia from this game's frozen forecast, the market's main lines and both teams' results.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illawarra Hawks win
36.4%fair 2.74
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Adelaide win
63.6%fair 1.57
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's frozen forecast of 09 Nov 09:11 UTC (Version 5). Implied = the consensus price with the bookmaker margin removed (Pinnacle first); edge = model probability minus implied.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
112-122
112
122
-10
102avg 89
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
94avg 89
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
91-89
91
89
+2
80avg 89
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
82-108
82
108
-26
70avg 89
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
81-98
81
98
-17
61avg 89
H24/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
105-98
105
98
+7
104avg 89
A31/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
107-95
107
95
+12
no box
A05/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
78-106
78
106
-28
no box
A07/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
120-110
120
110
+10
no box
A11/11
NBL
Perth
#6
L
100-111 OT
100
111
-11
no box
A14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-32
25-35
26-24
39-31
27-28
23-29
27-29
23-24
21-27
35-16
22-22
13-24
19-20
17-28
16-34
30-26
16-25
19-30
27-14
19-29
24-19
27-25
27-25
27-29
32-35
29-27
26-20
20-13
21-22
16-27
23-36
18-21
28-23
43-31
24-27
25-29
30-26
18-24
18-19
26-23
202.3Avg total
97.6Scored
104.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)97.5104.7202.2-7.333%
Season at home (5)97.8106.0203.8-8.220%
Season away (10)97.3104.1201.4-6.840%
Last 10 (10)97.6104.7202.3-7.140%
Last 5 (5)102.0104.0206.0-2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)97.9106.7204.6-8.832%
vs Similar (9)96.796.0192.7+0.744%
vs Weaker (2)104.576.5181.0+28.0100%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
92-114
92
114
-22
87avg 88
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
72-88
72
88
-16
61avg 88
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
91-96
91
96
-5
79avg 88
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
84-78
84
78
+6
76avg 88
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 88
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
94-108
94
108
-14
86avg 88
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
106avg 88
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
89-96
89
96
-7
77avg 88
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
106-78
106
78
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
101-93
101
93
+8
no box
H12/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
21-31
17-25
21-20
32-20
18-18
23-26
20-12
23-22
14-22
26-17
31-23
23-26
25-42
18-30
29-14
22-22
28-24
28-20
18-28
34-29
17-30
26-20
23-26
23-20
22-21
27-16
36-23
21-18
27-10
32-25
21-27
21-31
187.1Avg total
93.1Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)92.992.5185.4+0.554%
Season at home (6)90.386.7177.0+3.750%
Season away (7)95.197.4192.6-2.357%
Last 10 (10)93.194.0187.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)99.695.2194.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)92.997.9190.7-5.050%
vs Similar (10)93.795.5189.2-1.850%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)96.088.5184.5+7.550%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Over/Under 183.5
Over 183.5
76.5%
Under 183.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 188.5
Over 188.5
66.2%
Under 188.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 193.5
Over 193.5
54.5%
Under 193.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

📊 3. Team Totals

Illawarra Hawks total 91.5
Over 91.5
66.0%
Under 91.5
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illawarra Hawks total 95.5
Over 95.5
51.0%
Under 95.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Illawarra Hawks total 99.5
Over 99.5
36.1%
Under 99.5
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Adelaide total 89.5
Over 89.5
84.2%
Under 89.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Adelaide total 93.5
Over 93.5
73.1%
Under 93.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Adelaide total 97.5
Over 97.5
58.9%
Under 97.5
41.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

Spread Illawarra Hawks -3
ILLA -3
28.0%
ADEL +3
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
ILLA
No market prices yet.
ADEL
No market prices yet.
Spread Illawarra Hawks 0
ILLA 0
36.4%
ADEL 0
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
ILLA
No market prices yet.
ADEL
No market prices yet.
Spread Illawarra Hawks +3
ILLA +3
45.1%
ADEL -3
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
ILLA
No market prices yet.
ADEL
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -4.4-4.4Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.1+0.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: -4.4-4.4Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +0.0+0.0Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: +3.4+3.4Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.1+0.1
Illawarra HawksAdelaide
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
47-67
47
67
-20
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
35-55
35
55
-20
H24/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
61-62
61
62
-1
A05/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
37-49
37
49
-12
A07/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
71-54
71
54
+17
A11/11
NBL
Perth
#6
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A14/11
NBL
102.1Avg total
49.2Scored
52.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.751.099.7-2.333%-
Last 30 at home (11)46.950.597.5-3.627%-
Last 30 away (19)49.751.2100.9-1.537%-
Last 10 (10)49.252.9102.1-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)53.651.8105.4+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)48.252.3100.5-4.132%-
vs Similar (9)49.450.6100.0-1.133%-
vs Weaker (2)50.040.090.0+10.050%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
43-72
43
72
-29
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
43-50
43
50
-7
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H12/11
NBL
93.6Avg total
44.6Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.595.6-1.453%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.046.494.4+1.654%-
Last 30 away (17)46.450.196.5-3.853%-
Last 10 (10)44.649.093.6-4.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.047.697.6+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)48.949.998.9-1.050%-
vs Similar (10)44.547.992.4-3.450%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)47.046.293.2+0.867%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 96.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.125.6
56.8%
56.4%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.511.2
35.6%
34.2%33.6
🏀 Free throws16.512.1
73.3%
74.0%12.1
They take 76.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 90.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.9
56.3%
56.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.4
30.3%
34.2%28.2
🏀 Free throws23.116.4
71.0%
74.0%16.4
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Nov 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Illawarra Hawks
LWLWWLLWLL
Adelaide
WWLWLWWLLL
#9
League position
#5
-8.7
Net rating
-3.3
100.8
Offensive rating
99.1
109.5
Defensive rating
102.4
55.4%
Effective FG%
51.6%
57.4%
Opp. effective FG%
57.6%
12.1%
Turnover %
11.2%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.32
35.6%
3-point %
30.3%
59.5%
Assist %
67.5%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence100.8 · 99.1Defence109.5 · 102.4Shooting55.4% · 51.6%3-point %35.6% · 30.3%Ball care12.1% · 11.2%Free throws0.22 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)40% · 50%
■ Illawarra Hawks   ■ Adelaide
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Illawarra Hawks wins
8
Adelaide wins
DateGameScore
07/11/26Adelaide v Illawarra Hawks106-78
02/10/26Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide114-92
05/02/26Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide100-99
20/12/25Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide78-84
19/11/25Adelaide v Illawarra Hawks97-85
02/11/25Adelaide v Illawarra Hawks90-88
13/01/25Adelaide v Illawarra Hawks91-88
10/11/24Adelaide v Illawarra Hawks93-79
05/10/24Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide100-102
20/01/24Illawarra Hawks v Adelaide89-96
Illawarra Hawkslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26APerth100-111 OT
11/11/26ASouth East Melbourne120-110
07/11/26AAdelaide78-106
05/11/26ACairns Taipans107-95
31/10/26APerth105-98
24/10/26HBrisbane Bullets81-98
22/10/26HSydney82-108
18/10/26AMelbourne United91-89
11/10/26HCairns Taipans100-110
09/10/26HTasmania JackJumpers112-122
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMelbourne United101-93
07/11/26HIllawarra Hawks106-78
01/11/26HBrisbane Bullets89-96
30/10/26ANew Zealand Breakers108-101
24/10/26ASouth East Melbourne94-108
16/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers94-88
11/10/26ASydney84-78
07/10/26HMelbourne United91-96
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL33%
HomeWLLLL20%
AwayWWLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15510
Win %33%20%40%
Points / game97.597.897.3
Allowed / game104.7106.0104.1
Point differential-7.3-8.2-6.8
Avg total202.2203.8201.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%20%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %7%0%10%
Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeLLLWW50%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game92.990.395.1
Allowed / game92.586.797.4
Point differential+0.5+3.7-2.3
Avg total185.4177.0192.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
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