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Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Prediction & Stats

Date: Tue 09 Mar 2027
Tip-off: 00:30
Scheduled
Position#18
Record5-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game120.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.3/10
Below normal
5.2/10
Around normal
Position#19
Record4-6
FormLWWLW
Points / game112.8
Allowed / game118.1
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
08 Mar 2027
MIA v PHX
upcoming
13 Jan 2026
MIA127
PHX121
07 Dec 2024
MIA121
PHX111
29 Jan 2024
MIA105
PHX118
14 Nov 2022
MIA113
PHX112
09 Mar 2022
MIA90
PHX111
23 Mar 2021
MIA100
PHX110
08 Aug 2020
MIA112
PHX119
25 Feb 2019
MIA121
PHX124
05 Mar 2018
MIA125
PHX103
21 Mar 2017
MIA112
PHX97
03 Mar 2016
MIA108
PHX92
02 Mar 2015
MIA115
PHX98
25 Nov 2013
MIA107
PHX92
05 Nov 2012
MIA124
PHX99
20 Mar 2012
MIA99
PHX95
17 Nov 2010
MIA123
PHX96
03 Nov 2009
MIA96
PHX104
04 Mar 2009
MIA135
PHX129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#8
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 112
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 112
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 112
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 112
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 112
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 112
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 112
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 112
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 112
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 112
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
235.6Avg total
116.7Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7120.0235.7-4.345%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)116.7118.9235.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)112.6118.2230.8-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar ◀ (13)121.4123.8245.2-2.438%
vs Weaker (8)126.4119.2245.6+7.175%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
83-124
83
124
-41
61avg 102
A22/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
W
131-122
131
122
+9
133avg 102
H25/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
114-125
114
125
-11
102avg 102
A27/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#13
L
120-127
120
127
-7
117avg 102
H31/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
113-116
113
116
-3
104avg 102
A03/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
119-132
119
132
-13
105avg 102
H05/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
117-104
117
104
+13
110avg 102
H06/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
102-99
102
99
+3
100avg 102
H08/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#3
L
96-122
96
122
-26
76avg 102
H10/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
133-110
133
110
+23
131avg 102
H11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
12-43
27-29
27-35
17-17
22-25
35-29
45-38
29-30
27-33
26-34
32-32
29-26
37-32
30-39
26-32
27-24
31-19
26-32
36-42
20-23
34-29
25-43
26-32
34-28
33-26
30-25
33-22
21-31
35-23
12-24
29-28
26-24
25-31
21-30
22-32
28-29
29-18
35-29
35-25
34-38
230.9Avg total
112.8Scored
118.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)112.8118.1230.9-5.340%
Season at home (7)116.9116.6233.4+0.357%
Season away (3)103.3121.7225.0-18.30%
Last 10 (10)112.8118.1230.9-5.340%
Last 5 (5)113.4113.4226.8+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)109.6118.7228.4-9.121%
vs Similar ◀ (11)110.4111.4221.7-1.036%
vs Weaker (5)120.4107.8228.2+12.680%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -0.5-0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +0.6+0.6Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -4.7-4.7Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: -0.7-0.7Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -0.5-0.5
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#8
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#28
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
122.2Avg total
60.9Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.462.5123.8-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.462.4124.9+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.3122.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)61.862.4124.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)57.862.7120.5-4.838%-
vs Weaker (8)68.660.0128.6+8.675%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
39-72
39
72
-33
A22/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
W
57-54
57
54
+3
H25/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
53-67
53
67
-14
A27/10
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#13
L
67-71
67
71
-4
H31/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A03/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
59-72
59
72
-13
H05/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#20
W
63-51
63
51
+12
H06/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H08/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#3
L
46-61
46
61
-15
H10/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
64-47
64
47
+17
H11/11
NBA
114.5Avg total
55.2Scored
59.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.859.1116.9-1.243%-
Last 30 at home (17)58.957.3116.2+1.647%-
Last 30 away (13)56.561.4117.8-4.938%-
Last 10 (10)55.259.3114.5-4.140%-
Last 5 (5)55.855.6111.4+0.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)55.461.9117.2-6.529%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)58.757.6116.4+1.145%-
vs Weaker (5)62.854.4117.2+8.480%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.129.7
55.9%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.6
35.1%
35.1%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.118.7
74.5%
77.1%18.7
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 110.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.6 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.7 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.526.8
56.4%
54.0%53.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.913.9
36.7%
35.1%41.7
🏀 Free throws19.715.4
78.2%
77.1%15.4
They take 85.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Mar 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWLLL
Phoenix Suns
WLWWLLLLWL
#18
League position
#19
-0.5
Net rating
-4.4
111.7
Offensive rating
110.8
112.2
Defensive rating
115.2
54.5%
Effective FG%
55.8%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
11.9%
Turnover %
14.5%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
29.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.23
35.1%
3-point %
36.7%
66.3%
Assist %
61.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 110.8Defence112.2 · 115.2Shooting54.5% · 55.8%3-point %35.1% · 36.7%Ball care11.9% · 14.5%Off. rebounds19.3% · 29.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Phoenix Suns wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26HLos Angeles Clippers133-110
10/11/26HSan Antonio Spurs96-122
08/11/26HHouston Rockets102-99
06/11/26HOrlando Magic117-104
05/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers119-132
03/11/26AGolden State Warriors113-116
31/10/26HDenver Nuggets120-127
27/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder114-125
25/10/26HGolden State Warriors131-122
22/10/26APortland Trail Blazers83-124

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%25%57%
Points / game115.7117.8114.6
Allowed / game120.0124.2117.6
Point differential-4.3-6.5-3.0
Avg total235.7242.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%14%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW40%
HomeLWWLW57%
AwayLLL0%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1073
Win %40%57%0%
Points / game112.8116.9103.3
Allowed / game118.1116.6121.7
Point differential-5.3+0.3-18.3
Avg total230.9233.4225.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%29%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (2)100% (1)0% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
2 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
3 San Antonio Spurs1210283%119.2108.0+11.2
4 Houston Rockets129375%115.4106.5+8.9
5 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
7 Portland Trail Blazers118373%119.5112.3+7.3
8 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
9 Golden State Warriors128467%119.3111.5+7.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder128467%111.1106.9+4.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies117464%117.9111.9+6.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 New York Knicks116555%110.3103.5+6.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers126650%116.4114.3+2.1
17 Toronto Raptors115645%114.5111.9+2.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 Orlando Magic114736%108.5114.0-5.5
21 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
22 Indiana Pacers124833%111.6114.0-2.4
23 Washington Wizards124833%107.5113.4-5.9
24 New Orleans Pelicans124833%116.9124.2-7.3
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls101910%113.3128.8-15.5
28 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
29 Utah Jazz121118%106.6118.1-11.5
30 Milwaukee Bucks121118%106.8121.3-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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