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Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 04 Mar 2016
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 108-92
29-21 28-22 27-25 24-24
Position#8
Record34-26
FormWLLWW
Points / game97.5
Allowed / game96.9
Miami Heat 🏆
USA
vs
Phoenix Suns
USA
Position#27
Record15-45
FormLLLWL
Points / game100.5
Allowed / game107.9
USANBA
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
08 Mar 2027
MIA v PHX
upcoming
13 Jan 2026
MIA127
PHX121
07 Dec 2024
MIA121
PHX111
29 Jan 2024
MIA105
PHX118
14 Nov 2022
MIA113
PHX112
09 Mar 2022
MIA90
PHX111
23 Mar 2021
MIA100
PHX110
08 Aug 2020
MIA112
PHX119
25 Feb 2019
MIA121
PHX124
05 Mar 2018
MIA125
PHX103
21 Mar 2017
MIA112
PHX97
03 Mar 2016
MIA108
PHX92
02 Mar 2015
MIA115
PHX98
25 Nov 2013
MIA107
PHX92
05 Nov 2012
MIA124
PHX99
20 Mar 2012
MIA99
PHX95
17 Nov 2010
MIA123
PHX96
03 Nov 2009
MIA96
PHX104
04 Mar 2009
MIA135
PHX129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
W
98-95
98
95
+3
85avg 90
A06/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
93-100
93
100
-7
81avg 90
H07/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
101-119
101
119
-18
95avg 90
H10/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
115-111
115
111
+4
109avg 90
A20/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
W
114-94
114
94
+20
111avg 90
H21/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
W
101-93 OT
101
93
+8
88avg 90
H23/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
112-118
112
118
-6
102avg 90
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
L
89-101
89
101
-12
80avg 90
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
98-81
98
81
+17
98avg 90
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
129-111
129
111
+18
132avg 90
H02/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-31
22-16
20-26
31-22
19-15
26-31
20-27
28-27
24-20
23-34
28-31
26-34
22-19
30-33
27-29
36-30
30-19
29-25
23-24
32-26
15-25
26-19
29-25
18-19
30-21
25-30
28-29
29-38
26-18
23-28
21-26
19-29
23-19
21-20
25-26
29-16
36-30
29-32
30-20
34-29
207.3Avg total
105.0Scored
102.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)97.596.9194.4+0.557%
Season at home (31)100.697.2197.9+3.461%
Season away (29)94.196.6190.7-2.552%
Last 10 (10)105.0102.3207.3+2.760%
Last 5 (5)105.8100.8206.6+5.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)97.5111.8209.2-14.20%
vs Similar (18)98.697.1195.7+1.661%
vs Weaker ◀ (8)95.995.0190.9+0.962%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#19
L
105-111
105
111
-6
101avg 90
H05/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
L
89-98
89
98
-9
76avg 90
H07/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
L
106-122
106
122
-16
100avg 90
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
104-112
104
112
-8
93avg 90
H11/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
100-116
100
116
-16
88avg 90
H20/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
111-118
111
118
-7
102avg 90
H21/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
84-124
84
124
-40
67avg 90
A23/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
106-116
106
116
-10
86avg 90
H26/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
111-106
111
106
+5
107avg 90
H28/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
92-126
92
126
-34
70avg 90
A02/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-19
31-37
21-32
25-23
12-31
23-22
23-18
31-27
19-28
38-29
28-32
21-33
28-29
15-28
32-34
29-21
24-21
21-35
20-25
35-35
21-30
29-30
32-28
29-30
17-36
25-23
19-31
23-34
29-34
16-32
26-24
35-26
25-18
29-28
32-30
25-30
18-35
24-33
19-30
31-28
215.7Avg total
100.8Scored
114.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)100.5107.9208.4-7.325%
Season at home (32)103.4105.5208.9-2.234%
Season away (28)97.3110.5207.8-13.214%
Last 10 (10)100.8114.9215.7-14.110%
Last 5 (5)100.8118.0218.8-17.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)97.6111.3208.9-13.79%
vs Similar (8)96.0108.2204.2-12.212%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: -6.0-6.0Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -4.6-4.6Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -0.3-0.3
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: -6.0-6.0Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: -4.6-4.6Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -3.2-3.2Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: -0.3-0.3
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#7
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A06/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
45-46
45
46
-1
H07/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
47-54
47
54
-7
H10/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
D
52-52
52
52
+0
A20/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
W
59-44
59
44
+15
H21/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#11
L
41-44
41
44
-3
H23/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
65-62
65
62
+3
H02/03
NBA
98.9Avg total
50.4Scored
48.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.748.296.9+0.547%-
Last 30 at home (11)49.047.596.5+1.545%-
Last 30 away (19)48.648.697.2+0.047%-
Last 10 (10)50.448.598.9+1.950%-
Last 5 (5)50.848.499.2+2.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)49.551.2100.8-1.825%-
vs Similar (18)49.447.396.8+2.156%-
vs Weaker ◀ (8)46.848.695.4-1.938%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#19
W
59-56
59
56
+3
H05/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#18
L
35-53
35
53
-18
H07/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#4
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
43-57
43
57
-14
H11/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
45-56
45
56
-11
H20/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
50-60
50
60
-10
H21/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A23/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
45-66
45
66
-21
H26/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
54-46
54
46
+8
H28/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#7
L
42-68
42
68
-26
A02/03
NBA
105.0Avg total
47.2Scored
57.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)45.555.0100.5-9.413%-
Last 30 at home (17)47.353.5100.8-6.224%-
Last 30 away (13)43.256.9100.2-13.70%-
Last 10 (10)47.257.8105.0-10.620%-
Last 5 (5)46.659.8106.4-13.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (22)46.255.3101.5-9.114%-
vs Similar (8)43.654.097.6-10.412%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 105.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀72%
🏀🏀🏀11%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers75.2 pts a game · 72% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers11.1 pts a game · 11% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers73.437.6
51.2%
49.0%75.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers13.13.7
28.2%
35.3%11.1
🏀 Free throws26.118.7
71.6%
75.5%18.7
They take 86.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 13.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 15% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 100.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.3 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.5 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.727.5
45.3%
49.0%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.48.1
31.9%
35.3%24.3
🏀 Free throws28.121.5
76.5%
75.5%21.5
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 30% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLLWWWLLW
Phoenix Suns
LWLLLLLLLL
#8
League position
#27
+2.7
Net rating
-13.9
104.4
Offensive rating
99.4
101.8
Defensive rating
113.2
49.9%
Effective FG%
46.1%
48.5%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
13.3%
Turnover %
16.4%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
27.3%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.33
28.2%
3-point %
31.9%
52.1%
Assist %
56.7%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence104.4 · 99.4Defence101.8 · 113.2Shooting49.9% · 46.1%3-point %28.2% · 31.9%Ball care13.3% · 16.4%Off. rebounds25.5% · 27.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)60% · 10%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
10
Miami Heat wins
0
Phoenix Suns wins
DateGameScore
09/01/16Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat95-103
03/03/15Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns115-98
10/12/14Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat97-103
12/02/14Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat97-103
26/11/13Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns107-92
18/11/12Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat88-97
06/11/12Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns124-99
20/03/12Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns99-95
24/12/10Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat83-95
18/11/10Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns123-96
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/16HChicago Bulls129-111
29/02/16ANew York Knicks98-81
27/02/16ABoston Celtics89-101
25/02/16HGolden State Warriors112-118
23/02/16HIndiana Pacers101-93 OT
21/02/16HWashington Wizards114-94
20/02/16AAtlanta Hawks115-111
10/02/16HSan Antonio Spurs101-119
07/02/16HLos Angeles Clippers93-100
06/02/16ACharlotte Hornets98-95
Phoenix Sunslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/03/16ACharlotte Hornets92-126
28/02/16HMemphis Grizzlies111-106
26/02/16HBrooklyn Nets106-116
23/02/16ALos Angeles Clippers84-124
21/02/16HSan Antonio Spurs111-118
20/02/16HHouston Rockets100-116
11/02/16HGolden State Warriors104-112
09/02/16HOklahoma City Thunder106-122
07/02/16HUtah Jazz89-98
05/02/16HHouston Rockets105-111

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW57%
HomeLWWLW61%
AwayWWWLW52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games603129
Win %57%61%52%
Points / game97.5100.694.1
Allowed / game96.997.296.6
Point differential+0.6+3.4-2.5
Avg total194.4197.9190.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%32%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won86% (14)83% (6)88% (8)
Overtime %7%10%3%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL25%
HomeLLLLW34%
AwayLLLLL14%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games603228
Win %25%34%14%
Points / game100.5103.497.3
Allowed / game107.9105.5110.5
Point differential-7.3-2.2-13.2
Avg total208.4208.9207.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%19%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won42% (12)60% (5)29% (7)
Overtime %2%0%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors5954592%115.3104.1+11.2
2 San Antonio Spurs6051985%104.992.3+12.6
3 Cleveland Cavaliers59421771%102.997.2+5.7
4 Oklahoma City Thunder61421969%110.1103.0+7.1
5 Toronto Raptors59401968%102.497.8+4.6
6 Los Angeles Clippers60402067%104.9100.2+4.7
7 Memphis Grizzlies60362460%99.299.5-0.4
8 Boston Celtics62372560%106.1101.7+4.5
9 Miami Heat60342657%97.596.9+0.6
10 Atlanta Hawks61332854%102.399.8+2.5
11 Dallas Mavericks61332854%102.5102.4+0.1
12 Charlotte Hornets60322853%102.2100.5+1.7
13 Portland Trail Blazers62332953%103.5102.3+1.2
14 Indiana Pacers61322952%102.3100.5+1.8
15 Detroit Pistons61313051%101.5100.5+1.0
16 Chicago Bulls60303050%101.5102.8-1.2
17 Washington Wizards60303050%103.0104.3-1.3
18 Houston Rockets61303149%105.6106.9-1.4
19 Utah Jazz60283247%97.997.3+0.7
20 Orlando Magic60273345%100.9102.2-1.3
21 Milwaukee Bucks61253641%99.1103.3-4.2
22 Sacramento Kings59243541%107.1109.5-2.5
23 New York Knicks62253740%98.8101.7-2.8
24 Denver Nuggets61243739%101.0104.1-3.0
25 New Orleans Pelicans59233639%102.7105.6-2.8
26 Minnesota Timberwolves61194231%101.0105.1-4.0
27 Brooklyn Nets61174428%97.0103.6-6.6
28 Phoenix Suns60154525%100.5107.9-7.3
29 Los Angeles Lakers62125019%97.8107.2-9.4
30 Philadelphia 76ers6185313%96.4107.1-10.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat29282724108
Phoenix Suns2122252492
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