PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 30 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 105-118
25-33 24-29 25-38 31-18
Position#18
Record24-22
FormLLLLL
Points / game110.5
Allowed / game111.6
vs
Position#9
Record26-19
FormWWWLL
Points / game116.7
Allowed / game114.6
USANBA· Kaseya Center (Miami)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
08 Mar 2027
MIA v PHX
upcoming
13 Jan 2026
MIA127
PHX121
07 Dec 2024
MIA121
PHX111
29 Jan 2024
MIA105
PHX118
14 Nov 2022
MIA113
PHX112
09 Mar 2022
MIA90
PHX111
23 Mar 2021
MIA100
PHX110
08 Aug 2020
MIA112
PHX119
25 Feb 2019
MIA121
PHX124
05 Mar 2018
MIA125
PHX103
21 Mar 2017
MIA112
PHX97
03 Mar 2016
MIA108
PHX92
02 Mar 2015
MIA115
PHX98
25 Nov 2013
MIA107
PHX92
05 Nov 2012
MIA124
PHX99
20 Mar 2012
MIA99
PHX95
17 Nov 2010
MIA123
PHX96
03 Nov 2009
MIA96
PHX104
04 Mar 2009
MIA135
PHX129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
120-128
120
128
-8
109avg 102
H11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
99-96
99
96
+3
91avg 102
H13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
104-87
104
87
+17
103avg 102
H14/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
90avg 102
A16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
97-121
97
121
-24
84avg 102
A18/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
108-109
108
109
-1
102avg 102
H20/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
87-105
87
105
-18
75avg 102
A21/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
96-105
96
105
-9
86avg 102
H25/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
110-143
110
143
-33
93avg 102
H26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
109-125
109
125
-16
100avg 102
A27/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-29
34-36
27-34
24-29
30-22
26-33
19-18
24-23
26-16
26-15
25-30
27-26
16-22
15-23
37-24
20-19
18-41
25-37
30-16
24-27
24-32
32-25
27-24
25-28
19-22
27-26
23-33
18-24
22-21
20-28
26-33
28-23
29-42
35-35
26-36
20-30
30-27
21-34
35-28
23-36
214.0Avg total
102.6Scored
111.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (46)110.5111.6222.0-1.152%
Season at home (22)114.0114.9228.9-0.955%
Season away (24)107.2108.5215.8-1.250%
Last 10 (10)102.6111.4214.0-8.830%
Last 5 (5)102.0117.4219.4-15.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)112.7127.7240.3-15.00%
vs Similar ◀ (20)111.2113.8225.1-2.650%
vs Weaker (7)107.0107.3214.3-0.357%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
111-138
111
138
-27
95avg 109
A09/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
127-109
127
109
+18
119avg 109
A12/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
127-116
127
116
+11
130avg 109
A15/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
119-117
119
117
+2
121avg 109
H17/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
123-109
123
109
+14
121avg 109
A20/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
117-110
117
110
+7
117avg 109
H22/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
115-113
115
113
+2
113avg 109
H23/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
132-109
132
109
+23
136avg 109
A25/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
131-133
131
133
-2
124avg 109
A27/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
98-113
98
113
-15
92avg 109
A28/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-34
32-37
28-30
20-37
36-25
30-27
39-26
22-31
31-33
40-28
35-31
21-24
27-39
24-29
33-28
35-21
41-28
28-24
31-28
23-29
33-25
32-36
26-22
26-27
22-37
27-29
34-24
32-23
25-34
32-24
43-20
32-31
40-31
40-39
34-35
17-28
37-26
19-25
29-31
13-31
236.7Avg total
120.0Scored
116.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (45)116.7114.6231.3+2.058%
Season at home (25)116.9114.9231.8+2.056%
Season away (20)116.4114.2230.7+2.260%
Last 10 (10)120.0116.7236.7+3.370%
Last 5 (5)118.6115.6234.2+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)117.1117.4234.5-0.355%
vs Weaker (10)114.3108.7223.0+5.660%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.5-2.5Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +5.7+5.7Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: -4.1-4.1
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -2.5-2.5Q1: +1.1+1.1Q2Q2: -3.1-3.1Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +5.7+5.7Q4Q4: -3.2-3.2Q4: -4.1-4.1
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
69-65
69
65
+4
H11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
56-55
56
55
+1
H13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
52-31
52
31
+21
H14/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
43-78
43
78
-35
A18/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
56-57
56
57
-1
H20/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A21/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H25/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
64-77
64
77
-13
H26/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
51-61
51
61
-10
A27/01
NBA
107.6Avg total
51.0Scored
56.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.556.7113.1-0.243%-
Last 30 at home (17)58.956.9115.9+2.053%-
Last 30 away (13)53.256.3109.5-3.131%-
Last 10 (10)51.056.6107.6-5.630%-
Last 5 (5)51.858.4110.2-6.60%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)66.365.3131.7+1.067%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)56.356.5112.8-0.240%-
vs Weaker (7)52.753.3106.0-0.643%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
63-71
63
71
-8
A09/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
66-52
66
52
+14
A12/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
71-61
71
61
+10
A15/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
51-68
51
68
-17
H17/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
69-52
69
52
+17
A20/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
65-61
65
61
+4
H22/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
L
49-66
49
66
-17
H23/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A25/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
80-70
80
70
+10
A27/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
56-51
56
51
+5
A28/01
NBA
123.7Avg total
62.7Scored
61.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.358.9119.2+1.457%-
Last 30 at home (17)57.659.8117.5-2.247%-
Last 30 away (13)63.857.6121.4+6.269%-
Last 10 (10)62.761.0123.7+1.760%-
Last 5 (5)61.461.2122.6+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (20)61.260.5121.8+0.755%-
vs Weaker (10)58.555.5114.0+3.060%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.926.3
49.7%
54.4%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.711.3
34.6%
36.3%33.9
🏀 Free throws19.516.1
82.6%
78.2%16.1
They take 85.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 120.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers66.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.633.0
62.7%
54.4%66.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.212.2
39.1%
36.3%36.6
🏀 Free throws21.617.4
80.6%
78.2%17.4
They take 83.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLLLLWWWL
Phoenix Suns
LLWWWWWWWL
#18
League position
#9
-9.1
Net rating
+3.3
106.0
Offensive rating
119.3
115.0
Defensive rating
116.0
50.5%
Effective FG%
61.2%
55.9%
Opp. effective FG%
56.4%
12.9%
Turnover %
14.2%
21.9%
Off. rebound %
20.9%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.6%
3-point %
39.1%
62.8%
Assist %
57.7%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence106.0 · 119.3Defence115.0 · 116.0Shooting50.5% · 61.2%3-point %34.6% · 39.1%Ball care12.9% · 14.2%Off. rebounds21.9% · 20.9%Free throws0.23 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Phoenix Suns wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/24ANew York Knicks109-125
26/01/24HBoston Celtics110-143
25/01/24HMemphis Grizzlies96-105
21/01/24AOrlando Magic87-105
20/01/24HAtlanta Hawks108-109
18/01/24AToronto Raptors97-121
16/01/24ABrooklyn Nets96-95 OT
14/01/24HCharlotte Hornets104-87
13/01/24HOrlando Magic99-96
11/01/24HOklahoma City Thunder120-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/24AOrlando Magic98-113
27/01/24AIndiana Pacers131-133
25/01/24ADallas Mavericks132-109
23/01/24HChicago Bulls115-113
22/01/24HIndiana Pacers117-110
20/01/24ANew Orleans Pelicans123-109
17/01/24HSacramento Kings119-117
15/01/24APortland Trail Blazers127-116
12/01/24ALos Angeles Lakers127-109
09/01/24ALos Angeles Clippers111-138

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL52%
HomeWWLLL55%
AwayLWLLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games462224
Win %52%55%50%
Points / game110.5114.0107.2
Allowed / game111.6114.9108.5
Point differential-1.1-0.9-1.2
Avg total222.0228.9215.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%14%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)57% (7)60% (5)
Overtime %2%0%4%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL58%
HomeWLWWW56%
AwayWWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games452520
Win %58%56%60%
Points / game116.7116.9116.4
Allowed / game114.6114.9114.2
Point differential+2.0+2.0+2.1
Avg total231.3231.8230.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%24%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won62% (16)62% (8)62% (8)
Overtime %4%0%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics45351078%120.4110.4+10.0
2 Milwaukee Bucks44311370%124.0119.9+4.2
3 Oklahoma City Thunder46321470%121.2113.0+8.2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves46321470%113.1107.6+5.5
5 Denver Nuggets47321568%115.1111.0+4.1
6 Los Angeles Clippers45301567%117.9111.8+6.1
7 Philadelphia 76ers44291566%119.5112.0+7.5
8 New York Knicks46301665%115.2108.6+6.5
9 Cleveland Cavaliers44281664%114.1109.8+4.3
10 Sacramento Kings43261760%118.8117.8+1.0
11 Phoenix Suns45261958%116.7114.6+2.0
12 New Orleans Pelicans44251957%117.1112.5+4.6
13 Indiana Pacers45252056%124.8123.1+1.7
14 Dallas Mavericks46252154%118.7118.3+0.3
15 Orlando Magic46242252%111.3110.8+0.6
16 Miami Heat46242252%110.5111.6-1.1
17 Utah Jazz47242351%117.9119.3-1.4
18 Los Angeles Lakers45222349%115.8117.7-1.9
19 Chicago Bulls47222547%110.9112.3-1.4
20 Houston Rockets45212447%113.3112.4+0.9
21 Golden State Warriors43192444%118.6119.0-0.5
22 Atlanta Hawks46192741%120.2123.3-3.1
23 Brooklyn Nets45182740%113.3114.9-1.6
24 Memphis Grizzlies46182839%107.8112.8-5.0
25 Toronto Raptors46163035%114.4116.8-2.4
26 Portland Trail Blazers46133328%107.8117.0-9.2
27 Charlotte Hornets45103522%108.6120.3-11.8
28 San Antonio Spurs46103622%112.9121.4-8.6
29 Washington Wizards4583718%115.1124.2-9.1
30 Detroit Pistons4664013%112.4122.1-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat25242531105
Phoenix Suns33293818118
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.