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Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 14 Jan 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 127-121
36-28 35-26 21-38 35-29
Position#17
Record20-18
FormLWLLL
Points / game119.7
Allowed / game117.7
vs
Position#16
Record24-14
FormWLWWW
Points / game115.3
Allowed / game111.1
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
08 Mar 2027
MIA v PHX
upcoming
13 Jan 2026
MIA127
PHX121
07 Dec 2024
MIA121
PHX111
29 Jan 2024
MIA105
PHX118
14 Nov 2022
MIA113
PHX112
09 Mar 2022
MIA90
PHX111
23 Mar 2021
MIA100
PHX110
08 Aug 2020
MIA112
PHX119
25 Feb 2019
MIA121
PHX124
05 Mar 2018
MIA125
PHX103
21 Mar 2017
MIA112
PHX97
03 Mar 2016
MIA108
PHX92
02 Mar 2015
MIA115
PHX98
25 Nov 2013
MIA107
PHX92
05 Nov 2012
MIA124
PHX99
20 Mar 2012
MIA99
PHX95
17 Nov 2010
MIA123
PHX96
03 Nov 2009
MIA96
PHX104
04 Mar 2009
MIA135
PHX129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
91-112
91
112
-21
78avg 105
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
126-111
126
111
+15
119avg 105
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
142-116
142
116
+26
136avg 105
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
147-123
147
123
+24
148avg 105
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
118-112
118
112
+6
107avg 105
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
115-125
115
125
-10
107avg 105
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
125-106
125
106
+19
114avg 105
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
94-122
94
122
-28
82avg 105
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
99-123
99
123
-24
84avg 105
A11/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
112-124
112
124
-12
113avg 105
A12/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
16-21
28-30
23-31
24-30
32-32
31-19
27-33
36-27
29-28
30-32
39-34
44-22
41-29
22-34
47-36
37-24
33-26
30-28
31-27
24-31
25-27
25-29
36-34
29-35
43-39
27-23
23-15
32-29
29-27
25-34
23-32
17-29
18-36
27-25
27-38
27-24
34-32
25-22
26-39
27-31
234.3Avg total
116.9Scored
117.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)119.7117.7237.4+1.953%
Season at home (19)121.9116.9238.8+5.068%
Season away (19)117.4118.6236.0-1.237%
Last 10 (10)116.9117.4234.3-0.550%
Last 5 (5)109.0120.0229.0-11.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)121.9126.9248.7-5.029%
vs Similar ◀ (14)119.2117.7236.9+1.557%
vs Weaker (9)116.2110.8227.0+5.467%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
115-108
115
108
+7
111avg 107
A27/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
123-114
123
114
+9
116avg 107
A28/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
115-101
115
101
+14
103avg 107
A30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
113-129
113
129
-16
98avg 107
A31/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
129-102
129
102
+27
123avg 107
H03/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
108-105
108
105
+3
103avg 107
H05/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
97-100
97
100
-3
85avg 107
A06/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
117-98
117
98
+19
113avg 107
A08/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
112-107
112
107
+5
101avg 107
H10/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
112-93
112
93
+19
108avg 107
H12/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-23
27-25
28-32
34-28
32-33
33-22
28-30
30-29
22-23
39-31
26-25
28-22
21-37
33-30
35-29
24-33
32-29
30-27
35-27
32-19
20-26
22-23
32-24
34-32
29-25
31-29
18-24
19-22
30-23
35-24
26-21
26-30
28-23
34-37
32-26
18-21
32-28
33-22
31-17
16-26
219.8Avg total
114.1Scored
105.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)115.3111.1226.4+4.363%
Season at home (19)116.2108.1224.3+8.174%
Season away (19)114.5114.1228.6+0.553%
Last 10 (10)114.1105.7219.8+8.480%
Last 5 (5)109.2100.6209.8+8.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)112.5109.2221.8+3.275%
vs Similar ◀ (16)112.4112.2224.6+0.150%
vs Weaker (10)120.0102.6222.6+17.4100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +4.7+4.7Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.1-0.1
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: -0.6-0.6Q2: +4.7+4.7Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: -0.1-0.1
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
44-51
44
51
-7
H24/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
63-51
63
51
+12
A27/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
59-60
59
60
-1
H28/12
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
63-63
63
63
+0
H30/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A02/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-56
50
56
-6
H03/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
70-62
70
62
+8
H04/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
54-61
54
61
-7
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
45-61
45
61
-16
A11/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A12/01
NBA
114.3Avg total
57.0Scored
57.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.858.3118.1+1.560%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.557.5117.0+2.165%-
Last 30 away (13)60.159.4119.5+0.754%-
Last 10 (10)57.057.3114.3-0.340%-
Last 5 (5)55.658.8114.4-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)60.661.7122.3-1.143%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)61.257.6118.8+3.671%-
vs Weaker (9)56.956.8113.7+0.156%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A27/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A28/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
61-54
61
54
+7
A30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A31/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
62-56
62
56
+6
H03/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H05/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
60-54
60
54
+6
A06/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
65-47
65
47
+18
A08/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
62-60
62
60
+2
H10/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
65-50
65
50
+15
H12/01
NBA
112.9Avg total
58.9Scored
54.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.454.7114.2+4.767%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.854.3112.1+3.553%-
Last 30 away (15)61.155.1116.2+5.980%-
Last 10 (10)58.954.0112.9+4.980%-
Last 5 (5)58.852.0110.8+6.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)51.255.2106.5-4.025%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)58.957.5116.4+1.456%-
vs Weaker (10)63.550.1113.6+13.4100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 116.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.8 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.930.4
51.6%
54.8%60.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.213.2
36.5%
35.8%39.6
🏀 Free throws20.016.5
82.5%
78.1%16.5
They take 95.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 114.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀40%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.2 pts a game · 40% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.126.2
52.3%
54.8%52.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.515.4
36.2%
35.8%46.2
🏀 Free throws19.715.5
78.7%
78.1%15.5
They take 92.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Jan 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLWLWWWWL
Phoenix Suns
WWWLWWLWWW
#17
League position
#16
-0.3
Net rating
+8.4
108.6
Offensive rating
114.1
108.9
Defensive rating
105.7
52.8%
Effective FG%
53.2%
55.5%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
14.5%
Turnover %
13.2%
27.5%
Off. rebound %
31.1%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.21
36.5%
3-point %
36.2%
64.7%
Assist %
60.8%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence108.6 · 114.1Defence108.9 · 105.7Shooting52.8% · 53.2%3-point %36.5% · 36.2%Ball care14.5% · 13.2%Off. rebounds27.5% · 31.1%Free throws0.21 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Miami Heat wins
6
Phoenix Suns wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/26AOklahoma City Thunder112-124
11/01/26AIndiana Pacers99-123
07/01/26AMinnesota Timberwolves94-122
04/01/26HNew Orleans Pelicans125-106
03/01/26HMinnesota Timberwolves115-125
02/01/26ADetroit Pistons118-112
30/12/25HDenver Nuggets147-123
28/12/25HIndiana Pacers142-116
27/12/25AAtlanta Hawks126-111
24/12/25HToronto Raptors91-112
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/01/26HWashington Wizards112-93
10/01/26HNew York Knicks112-107
08/01/26AMemphis Grizzlies117-98
06/01/26AHouston Rockets97-100
05/01/26HOklahoma City Thunder108-105
03/01/26HSacramento Kings129-102
31/12/25ACleveland Cavaliers113-129
30/12/25AWashington Wizards115-101
28/12/25ANew Orleans Pelicans123-114
27/12/25ANew Orleans Pelicans115-108

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL53%
HomeLWWLW68%
AwayWWLLL37%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381919
Win %53%68%37%
Points / game119.7121.9117.4
Allowed / game117.7116.9118.6
Point differential+1.9+5.0-1.2
Avg total237.4238.8236.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%37%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (9)83% (6)33% (3)
Overtime %3%5%0%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW63%
HomeWWWWW74%
AwayWWLLW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381919
Win %63%74%53%
Points / game115.3116.2114.5
Allowed / game111.1108.1114.1
Point differential+4.3+8.1+0.5
Avg total226.4224.3228.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%42%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)62% (8)20% (5)
Overtime %3%0%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder3832684%121.3108.8+12.5
2 Detroit Pistons38281074%117.8111.2+6.6
3 San Antonio Spurs37251268%117.9112.5+5.4
4 Denver Nuggets39261367%122.7117.5+5.2
5 Minnesota Timberwolves40261465%119.9114.8+5.1
6 Los Angeles Lakers36231364%115.7116.0-0.3
7 Phoenix Suns38241463%115.3111.1+4.3
8 New York Knicks37231462%119.2115.2+4.0
9 Boston Celtics39241562%116.6110.1+6.5
10 Houston Rockets36221461%117.9110.8+7.2
11 Toronto Raptors40241660%114.2112.2+1.9
12 Philadelphia 76ers38221658%117.1115.2+1.9
13 Orlando Magic38211755%116.1114.7+1.4
14 Cleveland Cavaliers41221954%119.8117.7+2.0
15 Miami Heat38201853%119.7117.7+1.9
16 Golden State Warriors40211952%115.4113.6+1.8
17 Atlanta Hawks41202149%118.4118.4+0.0
18 Portland Trail Blazers40192148%116.3118.8-2.5
19 Chicago Bulls38182047%117.3120.8-3.5
20 Memphis Grizzlies39172244%114.9116.2-1.3
21 Milwaukee Bucks39172244%112.9115.1-2.2
22 Los Angeles Clippers39162341%112.1113.5-1.4
23 Dallas Mavericks40152538%113.0116.8-3.9
24 Utah Jazz39142536%119.1126.9-7.8
25 Charlotte Hornets40142635%116.1116.7-0.5
26 Brooklyn Nets37112630%108.7113.8-5.1
27 Washington Wizards38102826%112.8124.0-11.2
28 Sacramento Kings40103025%110.2121.2-11.1
29 Indiana Pacers4093122%110.8118.4-7.6
30 New Orleans Pelicans4193222%114.9122.4-7.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat36352135127
Phoenix Suns28263829121
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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