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Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 08 Dec 2024
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 121-111
26-29 27-29 34-24 34-29
Position#20
Record10-10
FormWWLLW
Points / game111.3
Allowed / game109.0
vs
Position#22
Record12-9
FormWLWWL
Points / game113.2
Allowed / game113.5
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
08 Mar 2027
MIA v PHX
upcoming
13 Jan 2026
MIA127
PHX121
07 Dec 2024
MIA121
PHX111
29 Jan 2024
MIA105
PHX118
14 Nov 2022
MIA113
PHX112
09 Mar 2022
MIA90
PHX111
23 Mar 2021
MIA100
PHX110
08 Aug 2020
MIA112
PHX119
25 Feb 2019
MIA121
PHX124
05 Mar 2018
MIA125
PHX103
21 Mar 2017
MIA112
PHX97
03 Mar 2016
MIA108
PHX92
02 Mar 2015
MIA115
PHX98
25 Nov 2013
MIA107
PHX92
05 Nov 2012
MIA124
PHX99
20 Mar 2012
MIA99
PHX95
17 Nov 2010
MIA123
PHX96
03 Nov 2009
MIA96
PHX104
04 Mar 2009
MIA135
PHX129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
124-111
124
111
+13
116avg 103
A16/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
110-119
110
119
-9
95avg 103
A17/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
106-89
106
89
+17
103avg 103
H19/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
123-118 OT
123
118
+5
110avg 103
H24/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
103-106
103
106
-3
98avg 103
H27/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
98-94
98
94
+4
95avg 103
A28/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
121-111
121
111
+10
110avg 103
H30/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
116-119
116
119
-3
108avg 103
A01/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
89-108
89
108
-19
78avg 103
A03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
134-93
134
93
+41
146avg 103
H05/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-29
35-26
37-30
26-26
20-28
29-24
26-33
35-34
25-33
28-23
35-16
18-17
33-28
23-23
33-33
25-30
20-31
31-34
29-20
23-21
26-26
24-13
25-19
23-36
20-21
38-40
38-23
25-27
24-34
36-31
27-33
29-21
25-28
20-32
18-25
26-23
34-26
35-26
36-20
29-21
219.2Avg total
112.4Scored
106.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)111.3109.0220.3+2.350%
Season at home (9)111.9106.4218.3+5.456%
Season away (11)110.8111.1221.9-0.345%
Last 10 (10)112.4106.8219.2+5.660%
Last 5 (5)111.6105.0216.6+6.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)92.0104.8196.8-12.830%
vs Similar ◀ (15)114.3111.4225.7+2.940%
vs Weaker (5)103.292.6195.8+10.6100%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
104-127
104
127
-23
84avg 110
A14/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
83-99
83
99
-16
72avg 110
A16/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
117-120
117
120
-3
115avg 110
A17/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
99-109
99
109
-10
92avg 110
H19/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
122-138
122
138
-16
112avg 110
H21/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
127-100
127
100
+27
122avg 110
H27/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
L
117-127
117
127
-10
114avg 110
H28/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
113-105
113
105
+8
116avg 110
H01/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
104-93
104
93
+11
103avg 110
H04/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
L
124-126
124
126
-2
125avg 110
A06/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-35
27-26
24-32
24-34
14-29
22-19
24-35
23-16
31-22
33-32
26-32
27-34
22-26
26-38
20-20
31-25
28-44
30-32
35-34
29-28
31-25
31-35
36-18
29-22
37-34
26-29
21-33
33-31
35-29
31-20
19-29
28-27
29-19
23-20
23-32
29-22
33-34
32-20
28-45
31-27
225.4Avg total
111.0Scored
114.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)113.2113.5226.7-0.257%
Season at home (12)113.2110.9224.2+2.367%
Season away (9)113.2116.9230.1-3.744%
Last 10 (10)111.0114.4225.4-3.430%
Last 5 (5)117.0110.2227.2+6.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)112.7115.7228.3-3.050%
vs Similar ◀ (21)109.9111.2221.1-1.352%
vs Weaker (3)120.3121.7242.0-1.333%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +5.2+5.2Q3: -5.4-5.4Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.8+1.8
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +2.7+2.7Q2: +1.0+1.0Q3Q3: +5.2+5.2Q3: -5.4-5.4Q4Q4: +0.3+0.3Q4: +1.8+1.8
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
61-55
61
55
+6
A16/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
49-52
49
52
-3
A17/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
L
53-56
53
56
-3
H19/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H24/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
51-65
51
65
-14
H27/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
50-39
50
39
+11
A28/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H30/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
60-65
60
65
-5
A01/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
45-60
45
60
-15
A03/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
69-52
69
52
+17
H05/12
NBA
110.8Avg total
55.2Scored
55.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.353.7106.1-1.447%-
Last 30 at home (12)53.854.1107.9-0.250%-
Last 30 away (18)51.353.5104.8-2.244%-
Last 10 (10)55.255.6110.8-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)56.455.4111.8+1.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)46.956.2103.1-9.330%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)56.754.6111.3+2.153%-
vs Weaker (5)50.246.296.4+4.060%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
56-61
56
61
-5
A14/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
36-48
36
48
-12
A16/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A17/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#15
L
48-64
48
64
-16
H19/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#6
L
58-76
58
76
-18
H21/11
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
62-60
62
60
+2
H27/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
D
63-63
63
63
+0
H28/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H01/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
52-39
52
39
+13
H04/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
65-54
65
54
+11
A06/12
NBA
113.8Avg total
57.0Scored
56.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.055.7110.7-0.650%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.757.4112.1-2.844%-
Last 30 away (14)55.453.6109.1+1.857%-
Last 10 (10)57.056.8113.8+0.250%-
Last 5 (5)61.653.0114.6+8.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)53.856.0109.8-2.250%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)54.155.6109.7-1.548%-
vs Weaker (3)64.055.3119.3+8.767%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 112.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀43%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.6 pts a game · 43% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.9 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.824.3
51.9%
54.3%48.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.215.3
37.1%
35.9%45.9
🏀 Free throws22.217.9
80.6%
77.8%17.9
They take 88.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 111.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.6 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.325.3
54.6%
54.3%50.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.714.2
36.7%
35.9%42.6
🏀 Free throws23.017.8
77.4%
77.8%17.8
They take 85.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Dec 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLWWLWWLW
Phoenix Suns
LWWLWLLLLL
#20
League position
#22
+5.7
Net rating
-3.4
113.6
Offensive rating
112.1
107.9
Defensive rating
115.5
53.7%
Effective FG%
54.8%
53.5%
Opp. effective FG%
55.7%
11.6%
Turnover %
13.8%
22.1%
Off. rebound %
23.0%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.27
37.1%
3-point %
36.7%
68.4%
Assist %
68.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence113.6 · 112.1Defence107.9 · 115.5Shooting53.7% · 54.8%3-point %37.1% · 36.7%Ball care11.6% · 13.8%Off. rebounds22.1% · 23.0%Free throws0.25 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)60% · 30%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Phoenix Suns wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/12/24HLos Angeles Lakers134-93
03/12/24ABoston Celtics89-108
01/12/24AToronto Raptors116-119
30/11/24HToronto Raptors121-111
28/11/24ACharlotte Hornets98-94
27/11/24HMilwaukee Bucks103-106
24/11/24HDallas Mavericks123-118 OT
19/11/24HPhiladelphia 76ers106-89
17/11/24AIndiana Pacers110-119
16/11/24AIndiana Pacers124-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/12/24ANew Orleans Pelicans124-126
04/12/24HSan Antonio Spurs104-93
01/12/24HGolden State Warriors113-105
28/11/24HBrooklyn Nets117-127
27/11/24HLos Angeles Lakers127-100
21/11/24HNew York Knicks122-138
19/11/24HOrlando Magic99-109
17/11/24AMinnesota Timberwolves117-120
16/11/24AOklahoma City Thunder83-99
14/11/24ASacramento Kings104-127

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW50%
HomeWWLWW56%
AwayWLWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20911
Win %50%56%45%
Points / game111.3111.9110.8
Allowed / game109.0106.4111.1
Point differential+2.3+5.4-0.3
Avg total220.3218.3221.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%33%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)33% (3)40% (5)
Overtime %10%11%9%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL57%
HomeLWLWW67%
AwayWLLLL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games21129
Win %57%67%44%
Points / game113.2113.2113.2
Allowed / game113.5110.9116.9
Point differential-0.2+2.3-3.7
Avg total226.7224.2230.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+14%25%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (3)50% (4)
Overtime %10%8%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers2421388%121.8111.0+10.7
2 Boston Celtics2319483%120.1110.0+10.1
3 Oklahoma City Thunder2318578%115.7103.8+11.9
4 Dallas Mavericks2416867%119.1111.5+7.7
5 Memphis Grizzlies2315865%121.1113.1+8.0
6 Houston Rockets2315865%113.5106.6+6.9
7 Orlando Magic2516964%107.3103.0+4.3
8 New York Knicks2314961%118.0111.1+6.8
9 Golden State Warriors2213959%114.1109.3+4.8
10 Los Angeles Clippers24141058%108.8107.0+1.8
11 Phoenix Suns2112957%113.2113.5-0.2
12 Minnesota Timberwolves22121055%110.7106.6+4.1
13 Atlanta Hawks24131154%117.3119.0-1.6
14 Denver Nuggets21111052%117.6117.0+0.6
15 Los Angeles Lakers23121152%112.3116.5-4.2
16 Miami Heat20101050%111.3109.0+2.3
17 Milwaukee Bucks22111150%113.2112.4+0.8
18 San Antonio Spurs23111248%111.0113.0-2.0
19 Sacramento Kings24111346%115.4113.9+1.5
20 Brooklyn Nets23101343%110.0113.7-3.7
21 Chicago Bulls24101442%119.9123.6-3.7
22 Indiana Pacers24101442%114.2118.4-4.2
23 Detroit Pistons25101540%110.5113.0-2.5
24 Portland Trail Blazers2381535%106.8116.4-9.6
25 Toronto Raptors2471729%112.5117.4-4.9
26 Philadelphia 76ers2161529%105.0110.6-5.5
27 Charlotte Hornets2361726%106.8112.7-5.9
28 Utah Jazz2251723%109.7117.7-8.0
29 New Orleans Pelicans2451921%104.5116.5-12.0
30 Washington Wizards2131814%107.4123.0-15.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat26273434121
Phoenix Suns29292429111
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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