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Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 10 Mar 2022
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 90-111
27-29 28-28 19-34 16-20
Position#4
Record44-22
FormWLWWW
Points / game109.7
Allowed / game104.6
Miami Heat
USA
vs
Phoenix Suns 🏆
USA
Position#1
Record52-13
FormLWWLW
Points / game113.7
Allowed / game106.1
USANBA· FTX Arena
NBA2021-22
Meetings · Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
08 Mar 2027
MIA v PHX
upcoming
13 Jan 2026
MIA127
PHX121
07 Dec 2024
MIA121
PHX111
29 Jan 2024
MIA105
PHX118
14 Nov 2022
MIA113
PHX112
09 Mar 2022
MIA90
PHX111
23 Mar 2021
MIA100
PHX110
08 Aug 2020
MIA112
PHX119
25 Feb 2019
MIA121
PHX124
05 Mar 2018
MIA125
PHX103
21 Mar 2017
MIA112
PHX97
03 Mar 2016
MIA108
PHX92
02 Mar 2015
MIA115
PHX98
25 Nov 2013
MIA107
PHX92
05 Nov 2012
MIA124
PHX99
20 Mar 2012
MIA99
PHX95
17 Nov 2010
MIA123
PHX96
03 Nov 2009
MIA96
PHX104
04 Mar 2009
MIA135
PHX129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#16
W
115-111
115
111
+4
112avg 103
H13/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
L
99-107
99
107
-8
90avg 103
H16/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
111-107 OT
111
107
+4
102avg 103
A18/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#19
W
115-100
115
100
+15
106avg 103
A26/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
133-129
133
129
+4
123avg 103
H27/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
112-99
112
99
+13
108avg 103
H01/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
119-120
119
120
-1
112avg 103
A03/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#16
W
113-107
113
107
+6
110avg 103
A04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#8
W
99-82
99
82
+17
94avg 103
H06/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
123-106
123
106
+17
121avg 103
H08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-26
38-32
27-18
24-35
28-23
31-28
19-30
21-26
37-30
10-24
17-17
23-16
30-32
35-23
25-30
25-15
28-40
33-18
38-39
34-32
30-21
25-25
36-21
21-32
28-36
38-28
31-29
22-27
23-35
37-32
28-17
25-23
22-14
32-26
19-28
26-14
25-32
37-26
28-20
33-28
220.7Avg total
113.9Scored
106.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (66)109.7104.6214.3+5.167%
Season at home (30)110.8103.9214.7+6.977%
Season away (36)108.8105.2214.0+3.658%
Last 10 (10)113.9106.8220.7+7.180%
Last 5 (5)113.2102.8216.0+10.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (15)109.5108.3217.9+1.247%
vs Weaker (15)114.6103.5218.1+11.193%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#29
W
132-105
132
105
+27
133avg 108
H13/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
103-96
103
96
+7
103avg 108
H16/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
124-121
124
121
+3
118avg 108
H17/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
124-104
124
104
+20
125avg 108
A25/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
102-117
102
117
-15
91avg 108
H26/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
114-118
114
118
-4
105avg 108
H27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#25
W
120-90
120
90
+30
123avg 108
H03/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#19
W
115-114
115
114
+1
105avg 108
H05/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
122-132
122
132
-10
112avg 108
A06/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
102-99
102
99
+3
94avg 108
A09/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-26
31-27
33-25
32-27
22-26
31-21
28-25
22-24
27-32
32-35
30-28
35-26
31-14
17-31
37-32
39-27
22-31
28-22
31-42
21-22
32-32
28-24
29-38
25-24
29-28
34-20
29-21
28-21
26-24
32-31
23-38
34-21
33-30
30-30
27-31
32-41
28-22
25-21
26-28
23-28
225.4Avg total
115.8Scored
109.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)113.7106.1219.8+7.680%
Season at home (35)114.5106.0220.5+8.580%
Season away (30)112.7106.1218.9+6.680%
Last 10 (10)115.8109.6225.4+6.270%
Last 5 (5)114.6110.6225.2+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)113.7112.4226.1+1.357%
vs Weaker (23)116.7105.8222.5+11.091%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +3.0+3.0
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: +5.4+5.4Q2: +2.6+2.6Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: -1.5-1.5Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: +3.0+3.0
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#16
W
64-58
64
58
+6
H13/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
W
59-51
59
51
+8
H16/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
47-54
47
54
-7
A18/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#19
W
65-55
65
55
+10
A26/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H27/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
55-46
55
46
+9
H01/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
66-64
66
64
+2
A03/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#16
L
60-67
60
67
-7
A04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#8
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H06/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
62-58
62
58
+4
H08/03
NBA
114.4Avg total
59.3Scored
55.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.853.7111.5+4.170%-
Last 30 at home (14)58.852.4111.1+6.486%-
Last 30 away (16)56.954.9111.8+2.156%-
Last 10 (10)59.355.1114.4+4.280%-
Last 5 (5)59.455.0114.4+4.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (15)57.855.1112.9+2.760%-
vs Weaker (15)57.852.3110.1+5.580%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#29
W
67-53
67
53
+14
H13/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H16/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
L
59-67
59
67
-8
H17/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
48-45
48
45
+3
A25/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
50-53
50
53
-3
H26/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
60-56
60
56
+4
H27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#25
W
63-48
63
48
+15
H03/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#19
W
58-55
58
55
+3
H05/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
63-60
63
60
+3
A06/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
53-43
53
43
+10
A09/03
NBA
110.1Avg total
57.4Scored
52.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.052.8110.8+5.173%-
Last 30 at home (15)59.155.7114.7+3.473%-
Last 30 away (15)56.950.0106.9+6.973%-
Last 10 (10)57.452.7110.1+4.780%-
Last 5 (5)59.452.4111.8+7.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (7)55.757.1112.9-1.471%-
vs Weaker (23)58.751.5110.2+7.174%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 113.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.428.7
54.8%
53.1%57.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.812.4
37.8%
35.3%37.2
🏀 Free throws25.119.3
76.9%
77.4%19.3
They take 85.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 115.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.8 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.8 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.230.6
54.4%
53.1%61.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.212.6
39.1%
35.3%37.8
🏀 Free throws20.916.8
80.4%
77.4%16.8
They take 88.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Mar 2022 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWLWWWWLW
Phoenix Suns
WLWWLLWWWW
#4
League position
#1
+7.1
Net rating
+6.0
114.2
Offensive rating
112.7
107.1
Defensive rating
106.7
55.5%
Effective FG%
56.0%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.6%
12.5%
Turnover %
11.3%
21.8%
Off. rebound %
16.3%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.24
37.8%
3-point %
39.1%
59.9%
Assist %
67.8%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence114.2 · 112.7Defence107.1 · 106.7Shooting55.5% · 56.0%3-point %37.8% · 39.1%Ball care12.5% · 11.3%Off. rebounds21.8% · 16.3%Free throws0.29 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Phoenix Suns wins
DateGameScore
09/01/22Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat100-123
14/04/21Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat106-86
24/03/21Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns100-110
08/08/20Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns112-119
08/11/19Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat108-124
26/02/19Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns121-124
08/12/18Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat98-115
06/03/18Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns125-103
09/11/17Phoenix Suns v Miami Heat115-126
21/03/17Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns112-97
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/22HHouston Rockets123-106
06/03/22HPhiladelphia 76ers99-82
04/03/22ABrooklyn Nets113-107
03/03/22AMilwaukee Bucks119-120
01/03/22HChicago Bulls112-99
27/02/22HSan Antonio Spurs133-129
26/02/22ANew York Knicks115-100
18/02/22ACharlotte Hornets111-107 OT
16/02/22HDallas Mavericks99-107
13/02/22HBrooklyn Nets115-111
Phoenix Sunslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/03/22AOrlando Magic102-99
06/03/22AMilwaukee Bucks122-132
05/03/22HNew York Knicks115-114
03/03/22HPortland Trail Blazers120-90
27/02/22HUtah Jazz114-118
26/02/22HNew Orleans Pelicans102-117
25/02/22AOklahoma City Thunder124-104
17/02/22HHouston Rockets124-121
16/02/22HLos Angeles Clippers103-96
13/02/22HOrlando Magic132-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW67%
HomeLWWWW77%
AwayWWWLW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games663036
Win %67%77%58%
Points / game109.7110.8108.8
Allowed / game104.6103.9105.2
Point differential+5.1+6.9+3.6
Avg total214.3214.7214.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%43%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)83% (6)30% (10)
Overtime %6%3%8%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW80%
HomeWLLWW80%
AwayWWWLW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653530
Win %80%80%80%
Points / game113.7114.5112.7
Allowed / game106.1106.0106.1
Point differential+7.6+8.5+6.6
Avg total219.8220.5218.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%49%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won82% (17)62% (8)100% (9)
Overtime %2%0%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Phoenix Suns65521380%113.7106.1+7.6
2 Memphis Grizzlies67452267%114.2109.3+4.9
3 Golden State Warriors66442267%111.2104.9+6.3
4 Miami Heat66442267%109.7104.6+5.1
5 Utah Jazz64402462%113.6107.6+6.0
6 Philadelphia 76ers64402462%108.5106.1+2.4
7 Milwaukee Bucks66412562%114.5110.4+4.0
8 Dallas Mavericks65402562%107.1103.7+3.4
9 Chicago Bulls66402661%112.5111.0+1.5
10 Denver Nuggets65392660%111.3108.3+3.0
11 Boston Celtics67402760%109.7104.0+5.6
12 Cleveland Cavaliers65382758%106.9103.5+3.4
13 Minnesota Timberwolves66372956%114.4111.8+2.6
14 Toronto Raptors64343053%108.2107.3+1.0
15 Los Angeles Clippers67343351%106.8107.6-0.8
16 Brooklyn Nets66333350%111.1112.0-0.9
17 Atlanta Hawks64313348%112.5111.8+0.8
18 Charlotte Hornets67323548%114.2114.9-0.7
19 Washington Wizards63293446%108.1110.7-2.6
20 Los Angeles Lakers64283644%110.6112.8-2.2
21 New York Knicks65273842%105.8107.3-1.5
22 New Orleans Pelicans65273842%107.8109.5-1.7
23 Portland Trail Blazers64253939%107.2113.2-6.0
24 San Antonio Spurs65254038%112.8112.9-0.1
25 Sacramento Kings67244336%110.2115.3-5.2
26 Indiana Pacers67224533%110.3112.8-2.5
27 Oklahoma City Thunder65204531%102.3109.8-7.5
28 Detroit Pistons66184827%103.6112.5-8.9
29 Houston Rockets65164925%108.6117.9-9.4
30 Orlando Magic66165024%103.8111.8-8.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2728191690
Phoenix Suns29283420111
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