PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Phoenix Suns Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 06 Mar 2018
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 125-103
30-27 31-21 32-32 32-23
Position#16
Record33-30
FormLWWLW
Points / game101.4
Allowed / game102.0
vs
Position#30
Record19-46
FormLLWLL
Points / game104.7
Allowed / game113.2
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2017-18
Meetings · Miami Heat v Phoenix Suns
08 Mar 2027
MIA v PHX
upcoming
13 Jan 2026
MIA127
PHX121
07 Dec 2024
MIA121
PHX111
29 Jan 2024
MIA105
PHX118
14 Nov 2022
MIA113
PHX112
09 Mar 2022
MIA90
PHX111
23 Mar 2021
MIA100
PHX110
08 Aug 2020
MIA112
PHX119
25 Feb 2019
MIA121
PHX124
05 Mar 2018
MIA125
PHX103
21 Mar 2017
MIA112
PHX97
03 Mar 2016
MIA108
PHX92
02 Mar 2015
MIA115
PHX98
25 Nov 2013
MIA107
PHX92
05 Nov 2012
MIA124
PHX99
20 Mar 2012
MIA99
PHX95
17 Nov 2010
MIA123
PHX96
03 Nov 2009
MIA96
PHX104
04 Mar 2009
MIA135
PHX129
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#26
L
109-111
109
111
-2
98avg 93
H06/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#1
L
101-109
101
109
-8
91avg 93
H08/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#15
W
91-85
91
85
+6
78avg 93
H10/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
112-115
112
115
-3
110avg 93
A14/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
102-104
102
104
-2
90avg 93
A15/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
L
123-124 OT
123
124
-1
111avg 93
A24/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
W
115-89
115
89
+26
111avg 93
H25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
102-101
102
101
+1
88avg 93
H28/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
L
113-131
113
131
-18
99avg 93
H02/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
105-96
105
96
+9
95avg 93
H04/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-26
25-33
27-34
22-18
24-35
33-26
23-22
21-26
19-23
23-23
30-8
19-31
24-28
31-29
26-41
31-17
29-20
33-19
19-34
21-31
27-22
32-35
30-27
19-24
34-31
26-21
32-18
23-19
17-24
28-24
28-27
29-26
36-33
26-40
32-31
19-27
27-28
32-18
15-24
31-26
213.8Avg total
107.3Scored
106.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)101.4102.0203.3-0.652%
Season at home (30)101.3102.0203.3-0.757%
Season away (33)101.5101.9203.4-0.548%
Last 10 (10)107.3106.5213.8+0.840%
Last 5 (5)111.6108.2219.8+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)99.1102.9202.0-3.729%
vs Similar (17)102.6101.7204.3+0.965%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)107.8101.3209.2+6.550%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#13
L
81-129
81
129
-48
56avg 94
H08/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
L
113-123
113
123
-10
103avg 94
H11/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
83-129
83
129
-46
59avg 94
A13/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
97-107
97
107
-10
86avg 94
A15/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
L
117-128
117
128
-11
97avg 94
H24/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
104-106
104
106
-2
98avg 94
H25/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
L
116-125
116
125
-9
104avg 94
A27/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
W
110-102
110
102
+8
100avg 94
A01/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
L
116-124
116
124
-8
105avg 94
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#28
L
112-113
112
113
-1
107avg 94
A04/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
9-28
22-41
19-28
31-32
23-28
37-34
29-32
24-29
24-25
21-37
26-37
12-30
23-27
18-23
30-22
26-35
18-40
32-39
28-16
39-33
24-28
26-27
31-16
23-35
36-26
29-32
24-38
27-29
21-27
36-27
25-18
28-30
37-32
30-28
32-37
17-27
23-29
33-27
31-30
25-27
223.5Avg total
104.9Scored
118.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)104.7113.2217.8-8.529%
Season at home (33)104.0113.3217.3-9.227%
Season away (32)105.3113.0218.4-7.731%
Last 10 (10)104.9118.6223.5-13.710%
Last 5 (5)111.6114.0225.6-2.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)102.4115.4217.8-13.012%
vs Similar (6)107.5106.0213.5+1.567%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -5.2-5.2Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -5.5-5.5
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +0.2+0.2Q1: -5.2-5.2Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: -3.1-3.1Q3Q3: -0.4-0.4Q3: +0.1+0.1Q4Q4: -1.0-1.0Q4: -5.5-5.5
Miami HeatPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#26
W
60-59
60
59
+1
H06/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#1
L
57-61
57
61
-4
H08/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#15
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H10/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A14/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
62-39
62
39
+23
A15/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
W
59-57
59
57
+2
A24/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
W
60-52
60
52
+8
H25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H28/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
L
62-73
62
73
-11
H02/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H04/03
NBA
109.9Avg total
56.1Scored
53.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.751.0102.7+0.753%-
Last 30 at home (15)51.051.7102.7-0.747%-
Last 30 away (15)52.550.3102.8+2.160%-
Last 10 (10)56.153.8109.9+2.350%-
Last 5 (5)57.055.2112.2+1.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)51.649.0100.6+2.643%-
vs Similar (17)51.950.5102.5+1.465%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)51.354.7106.0-3.333%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#13
L
31-69
31
69
-38
H08/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#12
L
60-62
60
62
-2
H11/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
45-62
45
62
-17
A13/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
41-50
41
50
-9
A15/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
L
50-79
50
79
-29
H24/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
50-55
50
55
-5
H25/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#7
W
65-58
65
58
+7
A27/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
W
57-54
57
54
+3
A01/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#11
W
67-60
67
60
+7
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#28
D
56-56
56
56
+0
A04/03
NBA
112.7Avg total
52.2Scored
60.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.057.4109.4-5.337%-
Last 30 at home (15)51.258.1109.3-6.940%-
Last 30 away (15)52.956.6109.5-3.733%-
Last 10 (10)52.260.5112.7-8.330%-
Last 5 (5)59.056.6115.6+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)51.758.3110.0-6.729%-
vs Similar (6)53.553.5107.0+0.067%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.330.1
49.1%
51.0%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.59.7
35.3%
36.1%29.1
🏀 Free throws23.818.0
75.6%
76.5%18.0
They take 88.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 27.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 31% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 104.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀61%
🏀🏀🏀23%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.4 pts a game · 61% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers24.0 pts a game · 23% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.732.2
49.0%
51.0%64.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.68.0
31.2%
36.1%24.0
🏀 Free throws24.416.5
67.6%
76.5%16.5
They take 91.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Mar 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWWLLLWLL
Phoenix Suns
LLWLLLLLLL
#16
League position
#30
+0.8
Net rating
-13.0
107.1
Offensive rating
99.7
106.3
Defensive rating
112.7
50.3%
Effective FG%
48.4%
51.9%
Opp. effective FG%
53.5%
12.9%
Turnover %
12.6%
27.1%
Off. rebound %
20.7%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.3%
3-point %
31.2%
55.5%
Assist %
54.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence107.1 · 99.7Defence106.3 · 112.7Shooting50.3% · 48.4%3-point %35.3% · 31.2%Ball care12.9% · 12.6%Off. rebounds27.1% · 20.7%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 10%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Miami Heat wins
1
Phoenix Suns wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/18HDetroit Pistons105-96
02/03/18HLos Angeles Lakers113-131
28/02/18HPhiladelphia 76ers102-101
25/02/18HMemphis Grizzlies115-89
24/02/18ANew Orleans Pelicans123-124 OT
15/02/18APhiladelphia 76ers102-104
14/02/18AToronto Raptors112-115
10/02/18HMilwaukee Bucks91-85
08/02/18HHouston Rockets101-109
06/02/18HOrlando Magic109-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/18AAtlanta Hawks112-113
03/03/18HOklahoma City Thunder116-124
01/03/18AMemphis Grizzlies110-102
27/02/18ANew Orleans Pelicans116-125
25/02/18HPortland Trail Blazers104-106
24/02/18HLos Angeles Clippers117-128
15/02/18AUtah Jazz97-107
13/02/18AGolden State Warriors83-129
11/02/18HDenver Nuggets113-123
08/02/18HSan Antonio Spurs81-129

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW52%
HomeWWWLW57%
AwayLLLLL48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633033
Win %52%57%48%
Points / game101.4101.3101.5
Allowed / game102.0102.0101.9
Point differential-0.6-0.7-0.5
Avg total203.3203.3203.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%17%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won59% (22)70% (10)50% (12)
Overtime %5%7%3%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL29%
HomeLLLLL27%
AwayLLLWL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653332
Win %29%27%31%
Points / game104.7104.0105.3
Allowed / game113.2113.3113.0
Point differential-8.5-9.2-7.7
Avg total217.8217.3218.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+6%6%6%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)50% (8)40% (5)
Overtime %2%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Houston Rockets62491379%114.0105.2+8.8
2 Golden State Warriors63491478%116.1107.6+8.5
3 Toronto Raptors62451773%111.9103.3+8.6
4 Boston Celtics64442069%104.4100.2+4.1
5 Portland Trail Blazers63372659%105.2103.4+1.8
6 Cleveland Cavaliers63372659%110.1109.8+0.3
7 New Orleans Pelicans62362658%112.3111.6+0.7
8 Indiana Pacers64372758%106.4104.8+1.6
9 Minnesota Timberwolves66382858%109.7107.0+2.7
10 San Antonio Spurs63362757%102.499.4+3.0
11 Oklahoma City Thunder65372857%106.6103.8+2.8
12 Washington Wizards64362856%107.0105.4+1.5
13 Denver Nuggets63352856%108.7107.5+1.1
14 Philadelphia 76ers62342855%107.5105.6+1.9
15 Los Angeles Clippers62342855%109.1108.0+1.1
16 Milwaukee Bucks64343053%104.7105.1-0.5
17 Utah Jazz63333052%102.8101.3+1.5
18 Miami Heat63333052%101.4102.0-0.6
19 Detroit Pistons64293545%102.9104.1-1.2
20 Los Angeles Lakers62283445%108.4110.0-1.6
21 Charlotte Hornets64283644%106.4106.7-0.2
22 New York Knicks64244038%104.1107.0-2.9
23 Chicago Bulls62214134%103.3109.5-6.1
24 Orlando Magic63204332%105.8110.0-4.2
25 Brooklyn Nets64204431%105.8109.9-4.1
26 Atlanta Hawks64204431%103.8108.2-4.5
27 Sacramento Kings64204431%99.2107.0-7.8
28 Dallas Mavericks64194530%102.2105.1-2.9
29 Phoenix Suns65194629%104.7113.2-8.5
30 Memphis Grizzlies62184429%98.9103.6-4.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat30313232125
Phoenix Suns27213223103
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.