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Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 10 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 00:00
Scheduled
Position#18
Record5-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game115.7
Allowed / game120.0
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.3/10
Below normal
2.9/10
🧊 Cold
Position#21
Record4-7
FormWLLLL
Points / game108.1
Allowed / game113.4
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Miami Heat v Washington Wizards
03 Dec 2026
MIA v WAS
upcoming
04 Apr 2026
MIA152
WAS136
10 Mar 2026
MIA150
WAS129
13 Apr 2025
MIA118
WAS119
03 Mar 2025
MIA106
WAS90
10 Mar 2024
MIA108
WAS110
03 Nov 2023
MIA121
WAS114
25 Nov 2022
MIA110
WAS107
23 Nov 2022
MIA113
WAS105
28 Dec 2021
MIA119
WAS112
18 Nov 2021
MIA112
WAS97
05 Feb 2021
MIA122
WAS95
03 Feb 2021
MIA100
WAS103
22 Jan 2020
MIA134
WAS129
06 Dec 2019
MIA112
WAS103
04 Jan 2019
MIA115
WAS109
10 Nov 2018
MIA110
WAS116
10 Mar 2018
MIA129
WAS102
15 Nov 2017
MIA93
WAS102
12 Apr 2017
MIA110
WAS102
12 Dec 2016
MIA112
WAS101
20 Feb 2016
MIA114
WAS94
07 Dec 2015
MIA103
WAS114
19 Dec 2014
MIA103
WAS105
29 Oct 2014
MIA107
WAS95
10 Mar 2014
MIA99
WAS90
03 Nov 2013
MIA103
WAS93
06 Jan 2013
MIA99
WAS71
15 Dec 2012
MIA102
WAS72
21 Apr 2012
MIA84
WAS86
25 Feb 2011
MIA121
WAS113
29 Nov 2010
MIA105
WAS94
27 Nov 2009
MIA84
WAS94
10 Nov 2009
MIA90
WAS76
28 Jan 2009
MIA93
WAS71
14 Nov 2008
MIA97
WAS77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Washington Wizards win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
111-128
111
128
-17
92avg 109
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
110-115
110
115
-5
95avg 109
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
109-113
109
113
-4
96avg 109
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
129-117
129
117
+12
131avg 109
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
145-125
145
125
+20
148avg 109
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
117-138
117
138
-21
108avg 109
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
117-116 OT
117
116
+1
112avg 109
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
100-120
100
120
-20
90avg 109
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 109
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
115-109
115
109
+6
99avg 109
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-41
27-24
27-38
31-25
31-31
27-35
17-30
35-19
27-23
25-30
32-30
25-30
34-25
35-31
28-29
32-32
36-42
32-19
35-27
42-37
30-37
42-42
21-32
24-27
33-24
19-43
26-20
29-20
29-26
24-27
23-38
24-29
34-30
34-29
23-22
23-27
29-25
35-29
28-18
23-37
235.6Avg total
116.7Scored
118.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)115.7120.0235.7-4.345%
Season at home (4)117.8124.2242.0-6.525%
Season away (7)114.6117.6232.1-3.057%
Last 10 (10)116.7118.9235.6-2.250%
Last 5 (5)112.6118.2230.8-5.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)114.8126.7241.4-11.922%
vs Similar ◀ (13)121.4123.8245.2-2.438%
vs Weaker (8)126.4119.2245.6+7.175%
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Washington WizardsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWizards
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#16
L
102-112
102
112
-10
91avg 98
H23/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
W
124-120
124
120
+4
118avg 98
A25/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
103-110
103
110
-7
94avg 98
A26/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
L
111-121
111
121
-10
105avg 98
A28/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
95-79
95
79
+16
92avg 98
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#23
W
103-94
103
94
+9
101avg 98
A03/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
105-120
105
120
-15
96avg 98
H05/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
132-139
132
139
-7
126avg 98
A07/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
L
75-114
75
114
-39
54avg 98
A08/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
111-122
111
122
-11
96avg 98
A10/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-34
31-26
25-21
25-31
28-27
29-35
40-20
27-38
21-19
23-35
24-26
35-30
42-34
27-25
23-33
19-29
22-26
29-20
28-13
16-20
28-33
32-26
19-9
24-26
32-37
29-31
24-25
20-27
32-28
27-38
35-39
38-34
19-25
17-32
23-33
16-24
32-31
26-37
29-35
24-19
219.2Avg total
106.1Scored
113.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)108.1113.4221.5-5.336%
Season at home (4)107.5106.8214.2+0.850%
Season away (7)108.4117.1225.6-8.729%
Last 10 (10)106.1113.1219.2-7.030%
Last 5 (5)105.2117.8223.0-12.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)111.8129.2241.0-17.40%
vs Similar ◀ (3)117.0108.3225.3+8.767%
vs Weaker (4)112.5106.2218.8+6.275%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -3.4-3.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: -1.7-1.7Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: -3.5-3.5Q3Q3: -2.4-2.4Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +0.5+0.5Q4: -3.4-3.4
Miami HeatWashington Wizards
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
53-65
53
65
-12
H24/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A24/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H26/10
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
W
69-56
69
56
+13
A28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
68-61
68
61
+7
H31/10
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
72-79
72
79
-7
A03/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A05/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
D
53-53
53
53
+0
A06/11
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#29
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#28
W
64-54
64
54
+10
A11/11
NBA
122.2Avg total
60.9Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.462.5123.8-1.143%-
Last 30 at home (14)62.462.4124.9+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)60.462.5122.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)60.961.3122.2-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)61.862.4124.2-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (9)60.064.3124.3-4.322%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)57.862.7120.5-4.838%-
vs Weaker (8)68.660.0128.6+8.675%-
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Washington WizardsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#16
L
52-60
52
60
-8
H23/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#27
L
57-62
57
62
-5
A25/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
L
44-54
44
54
-10
A26/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
69-59
69
59
+10
A28/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#22
W
51-46
51
46
+5
H30/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#23
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A03/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
61-68
61
68
-7
H05/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#14
L
59-66
59
66
-7
A07/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
L
36-57
36
57
-21
A08/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#9
L
58-68
58
68
-10
A10/11
NBA
114.6Avg total
54.7Scored
59.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.662.9117.5-8.213%-
Last 30 at home (12)54.762.4117.1-7.88%-
Last 30 away (18)54.663.2117.8-8.617%-
Last 10 (10)54.759.9114.6-5.230%-
Last 5 (5)54.863.6118.4-8.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (23)54.365.4119.8-11.14%-
vs Similar ◀ (3)62.054.3116.3+7.767%-
vs Weaker (4)50.854.5105.2-3.825%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 118.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.129.7
55.9%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.6
35.1%
35.0%40.8
🏀 Free throws25.118.7
74.5%
76.8%18.7
They take 91.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Washington Wizardstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Washington Wizards: 114.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.4 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.731.7
55.9%
54.0%63.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.910.9
34.2%
35.0%32.7
🏀 Free throws23.518.7
79.6%
76.8%18.7
They take 88.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWLWLWWLLL
Washington Wizards
LLLLWWLLWL
#18
League position
#21
-0.5
Net rating
-5.8
111.7
Offensive rating
108.3
112.2
Defensive rating
114.2
54.5%
Effective FG%
54.2%
56.8%
Opp. effective FG%
55.7%
11.9%
Turnover %
13.6%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
22.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.27
35.1%
3-point %
34.2%
66.3%
Assist %
58.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence111.7 · 108.3Defence112.2 · 114.2Shooting54.5% · 54.2%3-point %35.1% · 34.2%Ball care11.9% · 13.6%Off. rebounds19.3% · 22.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Washington Wizards
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Miami Heat wins
2
Washington Wizards wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26AUtah Jazz115-109
09/11/26ASacramento Kings114-108
06/11/26AGolden State Warriors100-120
05/11/26ALos Angeles Clippers117-116 OT
03/11/26ALos Angeles Lakers117-138
31/10/26HIndiana Pacers145-125
28/10/26AAtlanta Hawks129-117
26/10/26HDallas Mavericks109-113
24/10/26ACharlotte Hornets110-115
24/10/26HDetroit Pistons111-128
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26ADetroit Pistons111-122
08/11/26AOklahoma City Thunder75-114
07/11/26AAtlanta Hawks132-139
05/11/26HAtlanta Hawks105-120
03/11/26AOrlando Magic103-94
30/10/26HCharlotte Hornets95-79
28/10/26ACleveland Cavaliers111-121
26/10/26ACharlotte Hornets103-110
25/10/26AChicago Bulls124-120
23/10/26HToronto Raptors102-112

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW45%
HomeLLLW25%
AwayLWLWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %45%25%57%
Points / game115.7117.8114.6
Allowed / game120.0124.2117.6
Point differential-4.3-6.5-3.0
Avg total235.7242.0232.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%25%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %9%0%14%
Washington Wizards
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL36%
HomeWLWL50%
AwayLWLLL29%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %36%50%29%
Points / game108.1107.5108.4
Allowed / game113.4106.8117.1
Point differential-5.3+0.8-8.7
Avg total221.5214.2225.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%50%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1210283%122.1114.4+7.7
2 Boston Celtics119282%115.7104.0+11.7
3 San Antonio Spurs119282%118.7107.0+11.7
4 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
5 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
6 Golden State Warriors118373%120.4111.2+9.2
7 Houston Rockets118373%115.5106.4+9.1
8 Oklahoma City Thunder118373%111.4105.9+5.5
9 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
10 Memphis Grizzlies107370%117.9110.8+7.1
11 Portland Trail Blazers107370%119.7112.7+7.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 New York Knicks106460%110.6102.3+8.3
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 Denver Nuggets95456%113.6112.8+0.8
16 Toronto Raptors105550%116.6113.3+3.3
17 Cleveland Cavaliers115645%116.5115.0+1.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 New Orleans Pelicans114736%117.5122.4-4.9
21 Washington Wizards114736%108.1113.4-5.3
22 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
23 Orlando Magic103730%107.0114.6-7.6
24 Indiana Pacers113827%111.4115.2-3.8
25 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
26 Brooklyn Nets102820%106.7115.7-9.0
27 Chicago Bulls91811%112.7129.3-16.7
28 Utah Jazz111109%106.5117.6-11.2
29 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
30 Milwaukee Bucks111109%106.3121.2-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
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