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Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 04 Apr 2026
Tip-off: 19:00
Final 152-136
36-32 41-25 45-34 30-45
Position#17
Record40-36
FormWLLWL
Points / game120.5
Allowed / game118.2
vs
Position#30
Record17-59
FormWLLLL
Points / game112.7
Allowed / game124.3
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Washington Wizards
03 Dec 2026
MIA v WAS
upcoming
04 Apr 2026
MIA152
WAS136
10 Mar 2026
MIA150
WAS129
13 Apr 2025
MIA118
WAS119
03 Mar 2025
MIA106
WAS90
10 Mar 2024
MIA108
WAS110
03 Nov 2023
MIA121
WAS114
25 Nov 2022
MIA110
WAS107
23 Nov 2022
MIA113
WAS105
28 Dec 2021
MIA119
WAS112
18 Nov 2021
MIA112
WAS97
05 Feb 2021
MIA122
WAS95
03 Feb 2021
MIA100
WAS103
22 Jan 2020
MIA134
WAS129
06 Dec 2019
MIA112
WAS103
04 Jan 2019
MIA115
WAS109
10 Nov 2018
MIA110
WAS116
10 Mar 2018
MIA129
WAS102
15 Nov 2017
MIA93
WAS102
12 Apr 2017
MIA110
WAS102
12 Dec 2016
MIA112
WAS101
20 Feb 2016
MIA114
WAS94
07 Dec 2015
MIA103
WAS114
19 Dec 2014
MIA103
WAS105
29 Oct 2014
MIA107
WAS95
10 Mar 2014
MIA99
WAS90
03 Nov 2013
MIA103
WAS93
06 Jan 2013
MIA99
WAS71
15 Dec 2012
MIA102
WAS72
21 Apr 2012
MIA84
WAS86
25 Feb 2011
MIA121
WAS113
29 Nov 2010
MIA105
WAS94
27 Nov 2009
MIA84
WAS94
10 Nov 2009
MIA90
WAS76
28 Jan 2009
MIA93
WAS71
14 Nov 2008
MIA97
WAS77
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Washington Wizards winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
L
117-121
117
121
-4
103avg 110
H15/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
106-136
106
136
-30
95avg 110
A17/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
126-134
126
134
-8
120avg 110
H20/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
122-123
122
123
-1
117avg 110
A22/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
111-136
111
136
-25
99avg 110
H23/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
120-103
120
103
+17
120avg 110
A25/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
128-149
128
149
-21
118avg 110
A27/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
118-135
118
135
-17
106avg 110
A29/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
119-109
119
109
+10
114avg 110
H30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
129-147
129
147
-18
115avg 110
H01/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-41
28-30
28-27
34-23
24-26
33-33
31-37
18-40
42-29
23-30
23-38
38-37
29-32
34-32
33-23
26-36
31-38
27-38
23-32
30-28
28-19
35-27
20-37
37-20
27-40
19-41
41-28
41-40
36-34
39-45
32-29
11-27
38-34
20-27
33-26
28-22
33-53
24-27
45-32
27-35
248.9Avg total
119.6Scored
129.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (76)120.5118.2238.7+2.353%
Season at home (39)122.2117.8240.1+4.462%
Season away (37)118.7118.6237.3+0.143%
Last 10 (10)119.6129.3248.9-9.720%
Last 5 (5)122.8128.6251.4-5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)114.2122.8237.0-8.525%
vs Similar (13)120.4121.6242.0-1.238%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)124.4113.9238.3+10.569%
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Washington WizardsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormWizards
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
117-125
117
125
-8
98avg 99
H16/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
117-130
117
130
-13
103avg 99
H17/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
95-117
95
117
-22
82avg 99
H19/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
111-132
111
132
-21
98avg 99
H21/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
113-145
113
145
-32
98avg 99
A22/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
133-110
133
110
+23
104avg 99
A26/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
126-131
126
131
-5
118avg 99
A28/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
88-123
88
123
-35
60avg 99
A29/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
101-120
101
120
-19
85avg 99
A31/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
131-153
131
153
-22
121avg 99
H01/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-34
34-30
29-34
31-27
32-32
25-31
26-37
34-30
14-35
38-25
26-28
17-29
32-32
32-37
32-34
15-29
27-32
25-36
29-37
32-40
33-20
39-25
32-30
29-35
25-38
35-34
34-20
32-39
15-24
32-34
19-33
22-32
26-25
18-40
33-26
24-29
29-35
42-38
32-47
28-33
241.8Avg total
113.2Scored
128.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (76)112.7124.3237.1-11.622%
Season at home (38)114.1124.2238.3-10.029%
Season away (38)111.3124.5235.8-13.216%
Last 10 (10)113.2128.6241.8-15.410%
Last 5 (5)115.8127.4243.2-11.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)112.0130.4242.3-18.44%
vs Similar (6)119.5115.7235.2+3.867%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: -5.1-5.1Q2Q2: -4.8-4.8Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -5.9-5.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: -3.1-3.1Q1: -5.1-5.1Q2Q2: -4.8-4.8Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: -3.4-3.4Q4Q4: -1.8-1.8Q4: -5.9-5.9
Miami HeatWashington Wizards
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#13
L
55-71
55
71
-16
H15/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
57-59
57
59
-2
A17/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H20/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A22/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
58-76
58
76
-18
H23/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
63-46
63
46
+17
A25/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
46-81
46
81
-35
A27/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
75-79
75
79
-4
A29/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
58-61
58
61
-3
H30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
57-80
57
80
-23
H01/04
NBA
127.3Avg total
59.7Scored
67.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.059.8120.8+1.253%-
Last 30 at home (17)61.460.1121.4+1.359%-
Last 30 away (13)60.559.5120.0+1.146%-
Last 10 (10)59.767.6127.3-7.920%-
Last 5 (5)59.869.4129.2-9.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)60.260.5120.8-0.250%-
vs Similar (13)57.561.8119.4-4.331%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)64.757.5122.2+7.277%-
This opponent (Washington Wizards) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Washington WizardsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
57-64
57
64
-7
H16/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
57-63
57
63
-6
H17/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
52-60
52
60
-8
H19/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
64-69
64
69
-5
H21/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
52-68
52
68
-16
A22/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
72-45
72
45
+27
A26/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
60-72
60
72
-12
A28/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A29/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
44-65
44
65
-21
A31/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
71-73
71
73
-2
H01/04
NBA
121.3Avg total
57.6Scored
63.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.064.8119.8-9.717%-
Last 30 at home (15)55.764.3119.9-8.620%-
Last 30 away (15)54.465.3119.7-10.913%-
Last 10 (10)57.663.7121.3-6.110%-
Last 5 (5)58.862.6121.4-3.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (24)54.866.2120.9-11.48%-
vs Similar (6)56.259.2115.3-3.050%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 119.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.728.1
56.5%
54.8%56.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.014.4
34.3%
35.8%43.2
🏀 Free throws25.020.2
80.8%
78.1%20.2
They take 91.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Washington Wizardstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Washington Wizards: 114.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.1 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.628.6
56.5%
54.8%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.314.7
38.4%
35.8%44.1
🏀 Free throws17.513.1
74.9%
78.1%13.1
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Apr 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLLWLLLLL
Washington Wizards
LLLLWLLLLL
#17
League position
#30
-9.3
Net rating
-12.4
115.2
Offensive rating
109.4
124.6
Defensive rating
121.8
54.2%
Effective FG%
57.0%
59.5%
Opp. effective FG%
58.4%
10.6%
Turnover %
13.7%
22.0%
Off. rebound %
15.2%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.20
34.3%
3-point %
38.4%
65.4%
Assist %
59.6%
20%
Form (last 10/10)
10%

Profile

Offence115.2 · 109.4Defence124.6 · 121.8Shooting54.2% · 57.0%3-point %34.3% · 38.4%Ball care10.6% · 13.7%Off. rebounds22.0% · 15.2%Free throws0.27 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)20% · 10%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Washington Wizards
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Miami Heat wins
2
Washington Wizards wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/04/26HBoston Celtics129-147
30/03/26HPhiladelphia 76ers119-109
29/03/26AIndiana Pacers118-135
27/03/26ACleveland Cavaliers128-149
25/03/26ACleveland Cavaliers120-103
23/03/26HSan Antonio Spurs111-136
22/03/26AHouston Rockets122-123
20/03/26HLos Angeles Lakers126-134
17/03/26ACharlotte Hornets106-136
15/03/26HOrlando Magic117-121
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/04/26HPhiladelphia 76ers131-153
31/03/26ALos Angeles Lakers101-120
29/03/26APortland Trail Blazers88-123
28/03/26AGolden State Warriors126-131
26/03/26AUtah Jazz133-110
22/03/26ANew York Knicks113-145
21/03/26HOklahoma City Thunder111-132
19/03/26HDetroit Pistons95-117
17/03/26HDetroit Pistons117-130
16/03/26HGolden State Warriors117-125

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL53%
HomeLLLWL62%
AwayLLWLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games763937
Win %53%62%43%
Points / game120.5122.2118.7
Allowed / game118.2117.8118.6
Point differential+2.3+4.4+0.1
Avg total238.7240.1237.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%38%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)60% (10)33% (6)
Overtime %1%3%0%
Washington Wizards
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL22%
HomeLLLLL29%
AwayLWLLL16%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games763838
Win %22%29%16%
Points / game112.7114.1111.3
Allowed / game124.3124.2124.5
Point differential-11.6-10.0-13.2
Avg total237.1238.3235.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%13%8%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (14)50% (8)17% (6)
Overtime %4%3%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder75601580%118.7107.7+11.1
2 San Antonio Spurs75571876%119.5111.1+8.5
3 Detroit Pistons77562173%117.5109.6+7.9
4 Boston Celtics77522568%114.6107.1+7.5
5 Los Angeles Lakers76502666%116.5114.8+1.7
6 Denver Nuggets77492864%121.4116.6+4.8
7 New York Knicks76482863%116.7110.4+6.3
8 Houston Rockets77482962%114.8109.9+4.9
9 Cleveland Cavaliers77482962%119.3115.2+4.1
10 Minnesota Timberwolves77463160%117.6114.1+3.5
11 Atlanta Hawks78453358%118.6115.9+2.7
12 Toronto Raptors76433357%114.7112.0+2.7
13 Philadelphia 76ers77433456%116.5116.5+0.0
14 Phoenix Suns76423455%113.1111.0+2.2
15 Charlotte Hornets78423654%116.4111.3+5.1
16 Orlando Magic75403553%115.4115.3+0.1
17 Miami Heat76403653%120.5118.2+2.3
18 Portland Trail Blazers78403851%115.4115.9-0.5
19 Los Angeles Clippers77393851%113.7112.6+1.1
20 Golden State Warriors77364147%114.8115.1-0.3
21 Milwaukee Bucks77304739%110.5116.9-6.4
22 Chicago Bulls77294838%116.2121.6-5.4
23 Memphis Grizzlies77255232%114.8119.6-4.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans78255332%114.9119.4-4.5
25 Dallas Mavericks77245331%113.6119.3-5.7
26 Utah Jazz78215727%117.2125.6-8.4
27 Sacramento Kings78215727%110.9120.9-10.0
28 Indiana Pacers77185923%112.6120.8-8.2
29 Brooklyn Nets77185923%106.1115.8-9.7
30 Washington Wizards76175922%112.7124.3-11.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat36414530152
Washington Wizards32253445136
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